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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #54,661
  • May 29, 2016 7:32am May 29, 2016 7:32am
Quoting fti
{quote} due diligence. if one goes into battle as much as i do. one learns to pray. due diligence. thats the words i heard when they asked for 30 billion bail out. yes, i think that was the exact words. regards
Well, for this, I no comments I guess, as dealer, you need make price, as that's dealer's function in market. Retail trader can pick and choose so more ways to stay out if terrain is no good. So different roles different constraints to abide by, and different advantages too. End of day bottom line up can already.
  • #54,662
  • May 29, 2016 7:39am May 29, 2016 7:39am
Quoting fti
{quote} lets see if i reading you correctly. keep in mind that i am not monitoring the markets, so this is just thinking aloud. you used term PB. pull back? so your impluse wave is not in over lap situation. probably in abc pattern. Your situation is scout and rescue 1 level. Rules of engagement is when men is commited, Is rescue or flip. no half pragnant maneuvers. If you accessed that is no go situation, take pain and cut loss, abandon project. otherwise prepare rescue level 2. regroup scout and rescue 1 as new scout size. 1. allow bleed impliment...
Thank you very much for very kind reply.

- yes PB (pull back) . I had 1 scout in - on brain not in gear yet but only scout at risk - so way too early and then added 3 in at b of abc PB as rescue ie at a better price.

My original impulse is still in tact but my PB was very deep- not sure what you mean by "impulse in overlap".

I hate loss so I really fight to rescue my men and not close any down - bit rigid in thinking I think..
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #54,663
  • May 29, 2016 7:48am May 29, 2016 7:48am
Quoting fti
{quote} lets see if i reading you correctly. keep in mind that i am not monitoring the markets, so i assume you overstayed positions already. and is no longer on 5 mins charts. do not overstay again if rescue is implimented.
No I did not overstay - on m5 - my PB was just very deep then went my way - but of course it could have turned around against me - but did not - phew.

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #54,664
  • Edited 8:07am May 29, 2016 7:52am | Edited 8:07am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} Thank you very much for very kind reply. - yes PB (pull back) . I had 1 scout in - on brain not in gear yet but only scout at risk - so way too early and then added 3 in at b of abc PB as rescue ie at a better price. My original impulse is still in tact but my PB was very deep- not sure what you mean by "impulse in overlap". I hate loss so I really fight to rescue my men and not close any down - bit rigid in thinking I think..
noted.
yes is very rigid mind.
I have same problem.

But as sane person you must ascertain that you have ample resources pull rabbits out of your bag of tricks , not a wasteful ego trip.

regards

if your PB is exceeds 50% your impulse leg. then is not auspicious already.
the good ones would be around 30% of impulse wave.
Only deep PBs should be seen on 4th wave
which should be constrained by wave 1's top.
The reason why 4th waves PB's deep is because is bracing for wave 5 , which will be an eruption.
so it need gathers the spring contraction effect to springboard the 5th wave.

Wave 4s are very dangerous to trade. if it gets attracted by ponds of ducks tests its reverse point wave then a giant assasin pattern can materialise.
is safer trade wave 5. In wave 5 lots desperados, so lots loose change drops everywhere.
  • #54,665
  • May 29, 2016 8:00am May 29, 2016 8:00am
Quoting fti
{quote} noted. yes is very rigid mind. I have same problem. But as sane person you must ascertain that you have ample resources pull rabbits out of your bag of tricks , not a wasteful ego trip. regards
Would it be better to close down my 3 men while PB continues deeper leaving 1 scout for focus so reducing my risk just in case it turns out to reverse - and then get in again when abc PB has finished but with more men to recover my losses (it almost took out my entire 1st wave before coming my way - but it did run my way eventually) - I was with the higher time frame trend.
I got in before 50% retrace.

Thank you for great explanation re regrouping scout - will think about this some more -. Not sure what time window for H&S really means (sorry)

Thank you so much for detailed answer - I do appreciate it so much.
Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #54,666
  • Edited 8:32am May 29, 2016 8:11am | Edited 8:32am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} Would it be better to close down my 3 men while PB continues deeper leaving 1 scout for focus so reducing my risk just in case it turns out to reverse - and then get in again when abc PB has finished but with more men to recover my losses (it almost took out my entire 1st wave before coming my way - but it did run my way eventually) - I was with the higher time frame trend. I got in before 50% retrace. Thank you for great explanation re regrouping scout - will think about this some more -. Not sure what time window for H&S really means (sorry)...
no, leaving the scout there, boxes your mind biaed.
Its better have clear mind position next scout.

Moreover the fact that the scout needed be rescued , already indicates to you that the scout was not in a nice position.
Why keep an unsexy position disturb the mind?

bring em all home.

regards
  • #54,667
  • May 29, 2016 8:25am May 29, 2016 8:25am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} Not sure what time window for H&S really means (sorry) . Alex
when H&S pattern emerges.
from its head point. yo should see symmetric of time and price volatility. left shoulder to right shoulder.
Otherwise if time window is unbalanced, then is likely mutates to other forms after it passes its neckline.
This is esp so if distribution of range slows on right shoulder.


regards
  • #54,668
  • May 30, 2016 3:07am May 30, 2016 3:07am
Quoting fti
{quote} when H&S pattern emerges. from its head point. yo should see symmetric of time and price volatility. left shoulder to right shoulder. Otherwise if time window is unbalanced, then is likely mutates to other forms after it passes its neckline. This is esp so if distribution of range slows on right shoulder. regards
oh yes I do look at volatility/balance etc of pattern - not yet confident on my thinking - I tend to think of things as more momentum or strength/weakness of price and time (thanks to FTI of course).

I will pay more attention to pattern forming price and time - thank you so much.

Alex.
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #54,669
  • May 30, 2016 3:11am May 30, 2016 3:11am
Quoting fti
{quote} no, leaving the scout there, boxes your mind biaed. Its better have clear mind position next scout. Moreover the fact that the scout needed be rescued , already indicates to you that the scout was not in a nice position. Why keep an unsexy position disturb the mind? bring em all home. regards

I have always entered on the abc waves and left my men in to rescue in c wave if I have a few in at a & b- but I know it is risky and I hate a deep PB as it can mutate to real change - I know what you mean about imposing a bias as it really can do this - well to me anyway - so I know I need to close down if my rescue at b gets taken out and re-enter with new scout nos as this is safer.

Thank you so much - bank holiday here so been swimming at pool - still hurts but gettin better.

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #54,670
  • May 30, 2016 3:18am May 30, 2016 3:18am
Quoting fti
{quote} ...... Your situation is scout and rescue 1 level. ....... otherwise prepare rescue level 2. regroup scout and rescue 1 as new scout size. 1. ........... regards
Do you mean close down scout + rescue 1 that are in trouble - and reenter at more favourable situation in start of my new impulse wave at 4 as scout no( 4 4 8? Just to be clear?

Regards Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #54,671
  • May 30, 2016 7:26am May 30, 2016 7:26am
I guess I didn't realize quite how important patterns are until these last pages. http://thepatternsite.com/visualcpindex.html
  • #54,672
  • Edited May 31, 2016 12:55am May 30, 2016 11:47pm | Edited May 31, 2016 12:55am
hahahahaha i keep talking to ya about terrain.
what you think i talking b◉◉bs. read thread.
seems a nice chap, except
that he does not know that a sHs is of no value unless its neckline is upward or downwards sloping.
hhey but i no want argue with him.He retarded way before me. wah good life.

B B B

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wow, does his fingers even contact his brain? magic fingers.

regards


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  • #54,673
  • May 31, 2016 12:18am May 31, 2016 12:18am
Quoting NoDak64
I guess I didn't realize quite how important patterns are until these last pages. http://thepatternsite.com/visualcpindex.html
You cannot have read the first pages of thread properly - read em again - you see examples where FTI shows patterns on charts. I am not so hot on them either - well sometimes I am and sometimes not - I go with momentum but there is momentum in patterns too.
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #54,674
  • May 31, 2016 5:29am May 31, 2016 5:29am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} You cannot have read the first pages of thread properly - read em again - you see examples where FTI shows patterns on charts. I am not so hot on them either - well sometimes I am and sometimes not - I go with momentum but there is momentum in patterns too.
I've read so much of this thread my eyes are bleeding. That's probably the problem. Trying remeber everything. I just thought of patterns more as a consideration and of distant importance to feel and price action. More just things to keep at the back of your mind as possible options. I've pretty much been getting by with feel and HIP and LOP pattern which seemed the most utilized by fit to me
  • #54,675
  • Edited 7:31am May 31, 2016 5:48am | Edited 7:31am
Quoting fti
hahahahaha i keep talking to ya about terrain. what you think i talking b◉◉bs. read thread. seems a nice chap, except that he does not know that a sHs is of no value unless its neckline is upward or downwards sloping. hhey but i no want argue with him.He retarded way before me. wah good life.
I'm sure it was in here but I must of missed it. what accurate pattern book would you recommend?
  • #54,676
  • May 31, 2016 7:37am May 31, 2016 7:37am
Hi Zoran,I hope that you would not be insulted, but I ask because of the fact that you are reading compound bar chart formations without knowledge of even dual bar formations that I mentioned. How is this possible?I hope that you will get your basic bar formations up to mark before attempting the MO,MM stuff. This is because the MO, MM can do nothing to you benefit, unless you either learn can read bar or candlestick charts at basic levels.I list some source of info for your education, these are old books and manuals, I am not current in the elementary levels info. If anyone can help with new editions or books , I would appreciate some assistance here.reread thread #49, #51Try,Scientific Interpretation of Bar Charts"John R HillCommodity Research Institute, Ltd (1979)-This one's good------------------------------------ ---------------Technical Analysis of Commodity Futures.,1980 Ken H Sharleen,copyrights, Chartwatch,Fulton House 1700,345, North Canal Street.Chicago , Illinois 60606,USA.-This one's Ok------------------------------------ ---------------Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets: A Comprehensive Guideby John J. Murphy - 1998- This one has all sorts of relevant and irrelevant stuff.------------------------------------ --------------------Technical Analysis Explained: by Martin J. Pring - This one has all sorts of relevant and irrelevant stuff.------------------------------------ ----------------------or goto http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.p...hart_schoolbut site is very elementary, and beware of salemen.regards
Found it. I've really got to organize better
  • #54,677
  • May 31, 2016 8:47am May 31, 2016 8:47am
Quoting NoDak64
Hi Zoran,I hope that you would not be insulted, but I ask because of the fact that you are reading compound bar chart formations without knowledge of even dual bar formations that I mentioned. How is this possible?I hope that you will get your basic bar formations up to mark before attempting the MO,MM stuff. This is because the MO, MM can do nothing to you benefit, unless you either learn can read bar or candlestick charts at basic levels.I list some source of info for your education, these are old books and manuals, I am not current in the elementary...
Hi, just some advice, think about what the sticks trying to tell u, when u understand the meaning behind the sticks and why the sticks happened, and what it really means in terms of buyers and sellers, u won't need the patterns, reading the form of market is about the form unfolding right before u, and the opportunity is only there when the form is still in formation, when u can see it plain and clear, it means it's priced it. Think about the strategies to manage as the pattern unfolds. Once u free your mind of the need to recognise and trade patterns, you can read the pressure of the moves and understand what the message of price action is. And with that u will see more opportunities. Sometimes u can feel that someone is heavily supporting a level, but it will not be a textbook pattern, but these are the most profitable trades, coz few people see them, so the opportunities are there, and when ur ahead of the rest who need confirmation, the push price in ur favour when they see it finally, which produce better risk reward ratio than when u trade like them and need a pattern to be confirmed
  • #54,678
  • Edited 8:37pm May 31, 2016 8:19pm | Edited 8:37pm
playing single, no handicaps

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regards
  • #54,679
  • May 31, 2016 8:50pm May 31, 2016 8:50pm
Quoting fti
{quote} ahhh noted. if many friends visit must sing nice song talk nice cock. otherwise we go another night club hor. us day here night. first i need watch the special documentary. so nice they make special. Let me see if they cheat their research or not. if they no like me , may call my ancestors pirates. anyway nevermind most of the dragons already is dead. even the 10 wells, no natives lives there anymore. some lives in madhattan. regards https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fDALrT0gRAk after battle of foochow, many in the sea....
noted.
hahaha no singing for me, unless want to break glasses. lol.
drinking session welcome, need a couple lately. to ease mind from getting too jumpy.

so... mr foochow, very rare, have not heard your dialect much these days.

I am teochew, we like to eat seehum, drink tea and sit around. maybe thats why always have red butt? (jokes)

Rgds
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #54,680
  • May 31, 2016 9:01pm May 31, 2016 9:01pm
Quoting RelaxRay
{quote} noted. hahaha no singing for me, unless want to break glasses. lol. drinking session welcome, need a couple lately. to ease mind from getting too jumpy. so... mr foochow, very rare, have not heard your dialect much these days. I am teochew, we like to eat seehum, drink tea and sit around. maybe thats why always have red butt? (jokes) Rgds
ahhh no problem.
we also llike to eat oysterorjian, drink t, sit around , backsite black black.
no problems, yum cha yum cha.
if happy chacha.

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regards
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