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  • #13,161
  • May 30, 2016 5:33am May 30, 2016 5:33am
Brexit, The Fed, Zika, aliens, and hurricanes. /ES is bid, we could see last summer's highs fall this week....
https://www.yahoo.com/news/2016-hurr...000000004.html
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,162
  • May 30, 2016 10:09pm May 30, 2016 10:09pm
Quoting The Fool
/ES is bid, we could see last summer's highs fall this week....
Bremain 51% / Brexit 46% in latest poll, volatility rout to continue
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,163
  • May 31, 2016 2:26am May 31, 2016 2:26am
trying to get out of far otm UVXY short legs of Jun 17 vertical spreads....want to be left with long calls down around $20 or lower and will sell Jun 17 calls again @ $30, maybe $25 if there be any juice....it's a fight to the finish, homie don't play....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-05-31_0022orders.png Size: 46 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,164
  • May 31, 2016 2:42am May 31, 2016 2:42am
CBOE VIX 1m chart - whassup with the 85c gap?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-05-31_0040vix.png Size: 47 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,165
  • May 31, 2016 3:49am May 31, 2016 3:49am
earnings kitties, I am starting in the last week of July - that's Jul FOMC week as well.....$15 CAT cat shown with a 10% iv rise.....loaded for a dollar
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Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-05-31_0146cat.png Size: 88 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,166
  • May 31, 2016 4:11am May 31, 2016 4:11am
FB omg $45 wide but needed that to get in under a dollah, might get the curve all above water with decent iv rise, I show 15% up....need be careful as Jul opex more than a week b4 the ER, might not get all of the iv rise
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-05-31_0208fb.png Size: 84 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,167
  • May 31, 2016 9:57am May 31, 2016 9:57am
Quoting The Fool
CBOE VIX 1m chart - whassup with the 85c gap? {image}
A head scratcher ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #13,168
  • May 31, 2016 10:07am May 31, 2016 10:07am
Not getting my hopes up here, but SPX meeting a touch of resistance at 2100-ish ... . Still not enough vol out there to sell premium, so sticking with small, short term SPX engagement trades:

SPX June 24th 2020/2030/2145/2155 iron condor
POP: 58%
P50: 77%
Max Profit: $310/contract
Max Loss/BPE: $690/contract
Theta: 8.99/contract
Delta: -3.62

Price washes back and forth by .10 around a mid, so had to putz for that $310 fill.

* * *

Rolled SPY June 10th 209/213 short call vert to June 24th 210/214 for a $22/contract debit; sold a 199/203 short put vert against for $41/contract credit, so I'm net credit on the whole enchilada. I imagine I'll catch a break on some of these broken call sides at some point in my lifetime ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #13,169
  • May 31, 2016 10:28am May 31, 2016 10:28am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} A head scratcher ... .
there was a flash crash in some chinese stock futures around about that time, a technical glitch that was quickly corrected......sure
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,170
  • May 31, 2016 10:30am May 31, 2016 10:30am
Quoting The Fool
trying to get out of far otm UVXY short legs of Jun 17 vertical spreads....want to be left with long calls down around $20 or lower and will sell Jun 17 calls again @ $30, maybe $25 if there be any juice....it's a fight to the finish, homie don't play....
out of most UVXY Jun 17 call short legs, only $32 remain....they did their job, just need some juice back now...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,171
  • Edited 2:30pm May 31, 2016 1:31pm | Edited 2:30pm
filled the CAT DC near what is shown above, not trying FB yet. Got out of most UVXY fotm short calls for Jun 17 near the open - maybe good timing if we can catch an ill wind for a week or a month....trying to roll VXX legs down in various verts, fills running away from me in the iv tide. I have a few VXX call verts, but more calendars, between $17 and $23, then $25, $30....none earlier than Jun 17, some out to Jul 15, even Sept, even some Dec put flys in there....whatever is cheap hey I'm a bargain hunter.

....bring the Brexit noise, bring the Fed funk.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,172
  • May 31, 2016 4:53pm May 31, 2016 4:53pm
^VIX UP >8%.....UVXY, not.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,173
  • May 31, 2016 7:02pm May 31, 2016 7:02pm
Quoting The Fool
^VIX UP >8%.....UVXY, not.....
VXX also ending basically flat ... . Looked promising for a bit toward $14, then slumped back in the last half hour of the sesh ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #13,174
  • Jun 1, 2016 1:25am Jun 1, 2016 1:25am
I Paid 25c for the Jun SPY puts fly, $199/195/191. For another 20c I could roll up the $191 puts into the $199's, as shown which would give me a Jun $199/195 put vert, with 3x the maxP but almost double the potential loss. If we ever get any more vol I could roll up the short puts to $198 & get something back, I suppose.....hard to see the market doing anything but going up or sideways, but everything changes....
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-05-31_2315SPY1.png Size: 98 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-05-31_2316SPY2.png Size: 144 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,175
  • Jun 1, 2016 12:26pm Jun 1, 2016 12:26pm
Quoting The Fool
I Paid 25c for the Jun SPY puts fly, $199/195/191. For another 20c I could roll up the $191 puts into the $199's, as shown which would give me a Jun $199/195 put vert, with 3x the maxP but almost double the potential loss. If we ever get any more vol I could roll up the short puts to $198 & get something back, I suppose.....hard to see the market doing anything but going up or sideways, but everything changes....
not gonna chase any bear action, just throwing money away...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,176
  • Jun 1, 2016 12:48pm Jun 1, 2016 12:48pm
Quoting The Fool
not gonna chase any bear action, just throwing money away...
another day, another flat market, even every 0.3% dip is bought, no country for old bears
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,177
  • Jun 1, 2016 2:30pm Jun 1, 2016 2:30pm
Quoting The Fool
no country for old bears
candyass bears can't hold ground for more than an hour or 2
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,178
  • Jun 1, 2016 3:19pm Jun 1, 2016 3:19pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} VXX also ending basically flat ... . Looked promising for a bit toward $14, then slumped back in the last half hour of the sesh ... .
they want 10 - 11 on VIX, even the experts on CNBC are longing VIX now and watching that for the turn
  • #13,179
  • Jun 1, 2016 3:30pm Jun 1, 2016 3:30pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
they want 10 - 11 on VIX, even the experts on CNBC are longing VIX now and watching that for the turn
no guarantees, but it looks like ^VIX could even go lower. Only some exogenous event - Brexit, war, world Zika pandemic, etc - could shake loose the bulls and maybe only Brexit (or threat of Brexit) has a chance of doing that now.......
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,180
  • Jun 2, 2016 12:02am Jun 2, 2016 12:02am
Volatility lull makes for fairly short work here ... . Hop on; check SPX, VIX, Dough grids (still no good premium to be sold); stare forlornly at existing positions (several steaming turd piles); and off ... .

OPEC meets tomorrow; in all likelihood, nothing will come out of the meeting. Possible that /CL will move because of that "nothing," so may get a pop in vol in XOP, OIH as a result that is up to my standards ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
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