AceTraderFx : Intra-day Market Moving News and Views on Majors

AceTraderFx May 26: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (EUR/USD)

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
26 May 2016 04:02GMT

EUR/USD - ..... Despite yesterday's intra-day marginal breach of Tuesday's 1.1133 low to a fresh 2-month trough at 1.1129 in New York morning, traders quickly took profit due to lack of follow-through selling n lifted euro back up to 1.1167 in New York afternoon.
Price later met renewed buying at 1.1146 at New York close and euro climbed to 1.1178 shortly after Asian open as intra-day selloff in dlr/yen led to broad-based usd's weakness, euro tested 1.1180 before easing.

Intra-day rebound strongly suggests euro's recent decline has made a temp. bottom yesterday at 1.1129 and initial stops above 1.1180 are now in focus, more buy stops are touted above 1.1200/05, however, some offers are noted at 1.1235/45.
Therefore, even 1.1180 res is taken out, would be wise to buy euro on subsequent retreat.

Bids have been raised to 1.1160-55 and more below with some stops below 1.1125, however, there is market chatter of fairly good buying interest above 1.1100.

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AceTraderFx May 26: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (GBP/USD)

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
26 May 09:51GMT

GBP/USD - ..... Cable briefly tumbled from intra-day European high of 1.4720 to 1.4677 after release of UK GDP. Trader sold the pound on slowing business investment data.
Reuters later reported business investment in Britain fell in early 2016, a sign that uncertainty caused by the country's impending referendum on European Union membership is weighing on companies.

Growth in the economy slowed to 0.4 percent in the January-March period, the Office for National Statistics confirmed on Thursday, and many economists said it might lose further momentum in the second quarter.
Business investment fell in annual terms for the first time in three years, depressed by weaker spending on offices and other non-residential buildings. Weak trade figures again dragged on growth, leaving consumers as the economy's drivers.

The services sector, which makes up 80 percent of the UK economy, showed signs of losing steam. The Bank of England has previously said uncertainty hanging over the June 23 referendum was crimping investment, especially in the commercial real estate sector where transactions dropped 40 percent in the first quarter of this year.

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AceTraderFx May 27: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views - USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
27 May 2016 1:08GMT

USD/JPY - ......Japanese media reported ahead of Tokyo morning that Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is considering to delay a sales tax hike, originally planned in April 2017, by around two years. And Abe would likely announce the delay as early as June 1, when the current parliament session closes.

The decision would come in the wake of a Group of Seven (G7) summit, Abe is hosting in western Japan, where he told the leaders the global economy may be on the verge of a financial crisis on the scale of the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008.
The postponement by two years would still allow Japan to meet its target of turning the country's budget deficit into a surplus by fiscal 2020, the Yomiuri newspaper said.
Abe has pledged to raise Japan's sales tax to 10 percent from 8 percent in April next year, however, with Japan skirting recession and inflation still anemic, many of his aides have proposed postponing the tax hike to ensure Japan makes a sustained exit from deflation.

The media reported that Abe will shortly convey his idea to Finance Minister Taro Aso and the head of his ruling Liberal Democratic Party's coalition partner.
The Asahi also reported that Abe would forgo calling a snap election of the lower house of parliament, instead focusing on an upper house election already scheduled in July.
There had been some speculation that Abe would call a lower house election to coincide with the upper house election.

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AceTraderFx May 30: Market Review on USD/JPY
30 May 2016 1:08GMT

USD/JPY - .... Dollar climbed to a 1-month high of 110.86 ahead of Tokyo open following weekend news of a delay in a sales tax hike. Yesterday it was reported that Japanese PM Shinzo Abe plans to delay an increase in sales tax by two and a half years as the economy sputters and Abe prepares for a national election.

The prime minister, who has promised to announce steps on Tuesday to spur economic growth and promote structural reform, is also expected to order an extra budget to fund stimulus measures, just two months into the fiscal year and on the heels of a supplementary budget to pay for recovery from recent earthquakes in southern Japan.

After chairing a summit of G7 leaders on Friday, Abe said Japan would mobilise "all policy tools" - including the possibility of delaying the tax hike - to avoid what he called an economic crisis on the scale of the global financial crisis that followed the 2008 Lehman Brothers bankruptcy.
Abe has long said he would proceed with a plan to raise the tax rate to 10 percent from 8 percent next April unless Japan faced a crisis on the magnitude of the Lehman shock.
He said the G7 "shares a strong sense of crisis" about the global outlook, with the most worrisome risk being a global contraction led by a slowdown in emerging economies like China.

But other G7 leaders, however, appeared to differ with Abe on the risk of a global crisis, fuelling comment that Abe was using the G7 to justify delaying the painful tax hike.

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AceTraderFx May 30: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (EUR/USD)

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
30 May 2016 03:12GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1101.. Euro languishes near a 2-1/2 month trough of 1.1098 in Asia on Monday as intra-day rally in DLR/YEN has led to renewed broad-based usd's strength.
Having said that, Asian traders are not too eager to knock the pair lower as price has already fall fairly sharply in New York session on Friday, so one can expect a minor recovery to occur ahead of European open ahead of release of a slew of economic data from euro zone countries.

Offers are tipped at 1.1220/30 and more above with stops above 1.1150, some bias are noted at 1.1090-00 and more below (profit taking).
As both U.K. & U.S. markets are closed for holiday today, trading activity is expected to die down near European midday.

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AceTraderFx May 31: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/JPY)

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
31 May 2016 01:23GMT

USD/JPY - ...... Although the greenback rose to session high at 111.45 in early European morning, price retreated to 111.03 and continued to trade in a narrow range in holiday-thinned conditions as UK and US markets were closed.
Dlr briefly dropped to 110.80 at Tokyo open after Japan reported better-than-expected industrial production data before rebounding in Tokyo morning.

Factory output rose 0.3 percent in April from the previous month, against a median market forecast for a 1.5 percent drop, data by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry showed on Tuesday. It followed a 3.8 percent rise in March.

Pay attention to the release of U.S. consumer confidence data at 14:00GMT. Street forecast is for a rise to 96.0 fm prev. reading of 94.2.

Bids are now seen at 110.90/00 and more below at 110.70/80 with stops building up below there whilst initial offers are noted at 111.60/70, suggesting buying on dips for a resumption of recent uptrend is favored.

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AceTraderFx Jun 1: Delay on the scheduled sales tax by another 30 months is expected to be announced by Japan PM

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
01 Jun 2016 01:06GMT

USD/JPY - ...... Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is expected later today to announce delaying the scheduled sales tax hike by two-and-a-half years, but will likely bow to pressure from his coalition partner not to call a snap general election.
The tax delay, which had been widely expected, will be welcomed by voters, who will cast ballots in an upper house election in July. But it is fanning doubts about Abe's plans to curb Japan's huge public debt and fund ballooning social welfare costs of a fast-ageing population.

It would be the second time that Abe has delayed the increase in the sales tax to 10 percent from 8 percent, after a rise from 5 percent in April 2014 which tipped the economy back into recession.
Abe took office in December 2012 pledging to beat deflation and reboot the moribund economy with his "Abenomics" revival recipe, but has made little headway amid stubbornly weak domestic and export demand.

Abe's term as ruling Liberal Democratic Party president and premier, ends in September 2018 and unless the LDP changes its rules, has repeatedly said he would implement the tax rise as planned unless the economy faced a shock from a financial crisis or natural disaster.
But he laid the groundwork for a delay at last week's Group of Seven summit, insisting his G7 partners shared a "strong sense of crisis" about the global economic outlook and drawing parallels to the 2008 world financial crisis that followed the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers.

Government officials have said Abe has not abandoned a pledge to bring the country's primary budget balance into the black by the fiscal year from April 2020 to rein in public debt which is already more than double annual economic output.
But that target had already looked elusive, even with the government's rosy forecast of real economic growth of 2 percent on average in coming years.
Abe will also need to explain to voters how he plans to make up for the funding gap from the tax hike delay to October 2019, and keep pledges to beef up support for the elderly.

Speculation had simmered that Abe would call an election for parliament's powerful lower house as he did in 2014 after announcing the first tax hike delay, aiming to lock in his ruling bloc's two thirds "super majority" in the lower house and win a similar grip on the upper chamber, while there is no lower house poll need be held until 2018.

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AceTraderFx Jun 1: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (EUR/USD)

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
01 Jun 2016 03:08GMT

EUR/USD - ...... Despite yesterday's initial retreat to 1.1122 in early European morning, the single currency rallied to 1.1173 in New York morning on active cross-buying in eur/gbp.
However, price swiftly pared its gains n fell sharply to 1.1125 in New York. Euro continued to remain under pressure and edged lower to 1.1117 in Asian morning today.

There is a slew of manufacturing PMIs to be released from the eurozone today.
Readings of Germany and EZ manufacturing sectory are expected to remain unchanged, hence a surprise to the downside would give traders an added incentive to sell the euro.

Offers are now seen at 1.1160/70 and more above at 1.1180/90 with stops building up above there whilst initial bids are noted at 1.1100/10, suggesting further choppy trading would be seen.

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AceTraderFx Jun 2: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views GBP/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
01 Jun 2016 08:45GMT

GBP/USD - ...... Breaking news from Reuters, YouGov/Times poll shows 41 pct of Britons would vote to remain in EU, 41 pct to leave. British voters are evenly split between "Remain" and "Leave" ahead of a June 23 referendum on whether to remain in the European Union, according to the latest online opinion poll from YouGov for The Times newspaper.
The poll of 1,735 people, conducted on May 30-31, found that both camps were level on 41 percent, with 13 percent undecided and 4 percent not intending to vote.
The results were identical to YouGov's previous survey for The Times, which was conducted on May 23-24.

The Markit/CIPS manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose more than expected to 50.1 in May from April's slightly upwardly revised 49.4, the lowest reading since early 2013. Economists in a Reuters poll expected a 49.6 figure.
British manufacturing activity barely grew last month, adding to signs that the economy is slowing in the run-up to a referendum on European Union membership, a survey showed on Wednesday.
But the index was only a fraction above the 50 mark which separates growth from contraction, and below levels seen at the start of 2016. Official figures show manufacturing failed to contribute to overall growth throughout 2015 and early 2016.

Britain's economy slowed in the first three months of the year, and recent data showed business investment fell in annual terms for the first time in three years as uncertainty over the June 23 referendum weighed on sentiment.
Many economists expect the economy to weaken further in the second quarter. The Bank of England has said a vote to leave the EU could even tip the economy into recession.

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AceTraderFx Jun 2: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/JPY)

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
02 Jun 2016 03:03GMT

USD/JPY - ....... The greenback tumbled to 109.65 ahead of European open, then fell lower to session low at 109.05 in New York morning following Japan's decision to delay its sales tax hike.
Despite a brief short-covering rebound to 109.69, renewed selling pressured the pair lower and dlr fell briefly to 108.93 in Tokyo morning and continues to remain under pressure.

Mkt focus today is on the release of U.S. ADP jobs report at 12:15GMT. Street forecast is for an increase to 178K from previous reading of 156K. An upbeat figure would further bolster the case for a rate hike from the Fed.

Offers are now seen at 109.30/40 and more above at 109.50/60 with stops building up above there whilst initial bids are noted at 108.70/80, suggesting choppy trading with mild downside bias would be seen.

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AceTraderFx Jun 3: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/JPY)

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
03 Jun 2016 01:28

USD/JPY - ...... The greenback met renewed selling at 109.32 yesterday at European open and tumbled to session low at 108.53 in New York morning, weighed down by the release of slightly downbeat U.S. ADP jobs report.
However, price pared its losses n staged a short-covering rebound to 108.93 in New York afternoon, then 109.14 in Tokyo morning.

Mkt focus is now on the release of U.S. jobs report at 12:30GMT. Street forecast for non-farm is for a slight increase to 162K from previous reading of 160K and unemployment rate is expected to fall to 4.9% from 5.0%.
Traders will be using this data to base their judgement on when the Fed would look to hike its rates next.

Offers are now raised to 109.40/50 and more above at 109.60/70 with stops building up above there whilst initial bids are noted at 108.50/60, suggesting further choppy trading would be seen.

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AceTraderFx Jun 3: Euro zone retail sales unchanged according to Eurostat

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
03 Jun 2016 09:20GMT

EUR/USD - ....... European Union's statistics office (Eurostat) reported on the Euro zone retail sales were unchanged in April against March and growth slowed down year-on-year, mostly due to timid consumers in Germany and Belgium in the month following the Brussels attacks.
Eurostat said the retail sales, a proxy for household spending, were flat in April month-on-month in the 19-country currency bloc, despite market expectations of a more robust rebound after the drop recorded in March.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a monthly increase of 0.3 percent.
Yearly figures were also lower than expected, with sales up 1.4 percent, below market forecasts of a 1.9 percent rise. The April reading was lower than the 1.8 percent rise recorded in March, and half the 2.8 percent surge in sales recorded in February.

Eurostat also revised down both annual and monthly figures for March. The year-on-year increase in retail sales was revised to 1.8 percent from the 2.1 percent previously estimated. Month-on-month, the fall in sales was revised to -0.6 percent against the initial estimate of a 0.5 percent drop.
Year-on-year euro zone sales in April were dragged down mostly by drops in consumers' purchases in Germany, the largest economy of the euro zone, and in Belgium, in the month following the March 22 attacks in Brussels, offsetting large increases in Spain and France.
Belgium recorded the biggest decrease in retail sales among the 19 countries of the euro zone with a 2.3 drop year-on-year in April. In Germany sales went down 0.6 percent on a yearly basis.

Month-on-month, German sales went down 0.9 percent in April, the second worst fall in the euro zone after the -1.2 percent recorded in Finland. Belgian sales went up 1.1 percent after a 0.6 percent drop in March.
Compared to the previous month, sales of automotive fuel in the euro zone fell by 0.1 percent, while sales for non-food products including electronic appliances and clothing remained flat.
Sales increased 0.5 percent for food, drinks and tobacco, rebounding after a 1.1 percent fall in March.

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AceTraderFx Jun 6: Latest poll on Brexit is 4% ahead by YouGov poll

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
06 Jun 2016 00:07GMT

GBP/USD - ....... YouGov Brexit poll for ITV puts 'remain' at 41 pct, 'leave' at 45 pct.
Reuters then reported support for Britain to leave the European Union stood 4 points ahead of support for remaining in the 28-member bloc, according to a YouGov poll for ITV, Bloomberg reported on Monday.

The poll was based on a Wednesday-Friday survey of 3,405 people.
Britons vote on June 23 on whether to remain in the EU.

The campaign to get Britain out of the European Union has a 2-point lead over the "Remain" campaign, polling firm TNS citing a poll conducted in the third week of May.
Forty-three percent of respondents wanted Britain out of the EU, while 41 percent wanted it to stay, according to the online poll of 1,213 Britons. The difference was within the poll's margin of error. Sixteen percent of respondents were undecided.

The TNS poll was carried out between May 19-23, a month before the EU referendum date.

Britons will vote in just over 2 weeks time on June 23 on whether to remain in the 28-member bloc, with important implications for its trade, economic and political status.
The campaign to stop Britain voting to leave the EU has seen its lead shrink recently, with polls in the past week showing gains for "Leave".
Sterling fell sharply last Tuesday when both an online and a telephone poll for ICM showed a 3-percentage-point lead for the "Leave" campaign.

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AceTraderFx Jun 7: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (EUR/USD)

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
07 Jun 2016 03:09GMT

EUR/USD - ...... The single currency traded with a firm bias in Europe yesterday and rose briefly above last Friday's high at 1.1375 to 1.1393 in New York afternoon yesterday.
However, lack of follow-through buying triggered profit-taking and price retreated to 1.1349 in Asian morning today.

Pay attention to release of German industrial output m/m at 06:00GMT. Street forecast is 0.6% vs previous reading of -1.3%. Traders should also keep an eye out for EU GDP release at 09:00GMT despite market expectation of q/q and y/y to remain unchanged at 0.5% and 1.5% respectively.

Bids are now lowered to 1.1320/30 and more below at 1.1300/10 with stops building up below there whilst initial offers are noted at 1.1410/20, suggesting buying on intra-day dips is the favored strategy.

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AceTraderFx Jun 8: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/JPY)

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
08 Jun 2016 01:28

USD/JPY - ....... Although the greenback found renewed buying at 107.50 in Europe yesterday n rose marginally above Asian high at 107.89 to 107.90, price pared its gains and tumbled to 107.15 in New York morning on yen's broad-based strength.
Dlr met renewed selling at 107.45 in New York afternoon and fell sharply at Tokyo open, hitting a low at 106.85 in Tokyo morning on yen strength as Japan's GDP data was revised upwards.

As there is no major eco. data due from U.S. today, range trading is likely to be seen with offers noted seen at 107.20/30 and more above at 107.40/50 with stops building up above there whilst initial bids are noted at 106.20/30.

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AceTraderFx Jun 7: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (GBP/USD)

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
08 Jun 2016 04:06GMT

GBP/USD - ....... The British pound went through a roller-coaster session yesterday as despite initial spike up to 1.4664 (fat finger), price swiftly dropped to 1.4493 at European open.
Later, cable staged a recovery to 1.4609 in European morning before retreating again to 1.4526 in New York morning and continued to trade in sideways manner.

Pay attention to release of UK industrial output m/m and manufacturing output m/m at 08:30GMT.
Street forecasts are 0.0% and 0.0% vs previous readings of 0.3% and 0.1% respectively.

Offers are now seen at 1.4570/80 and more above at 1.4590/00 with stops building up above there whilst initial bids are noted at 1.4470/80, suggesting further choppy trading would be seen.

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AceTraderFx Jun 7: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (GBP/USD)

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
08 Jun 2016 09:20GMT

GBP/USD - ..... Cable briefly jumped to intra-day high of 1.4580 after upbeat U.K. data. Reuters reported Sterling jumped to Wednesday's high after data showed industrial output in Britain grew at its fastest pace in nearly four years in April, beating forecasts and wrong-footing investors who had positioned for a weak number.

Industrial output rose 2.0 percent in April after a 0.3 percent rise in March, the biggest month-on-month increase since July 2012, the Office for National Statistics said. Economists polled by Reuters had expected it to stagnate on the month.

Manufacturing output also rose at its fastest pace since July 2012, up 2.3 percent on the month after a 0.1 percent increase in March.

Sterling, which hit a three-week low against a basket of currencies on Monday, has been hostage to opinion polls before a British referendum on whether the country stays in the European Union or not. The vote is due on June 23 and polls suggest it is a close race between "Remain" and "Leave".

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AceTraderFx Jun 10: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/JPY)

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
10 Jun 2016 01:28

USD/JPY - ...... Reuters reported ahead of Asian open, Japanese Economy Minister Nobuteru Ishihara said today that he was closely watching the impact of a referendum in Britain later this month over whether or not Britain is to remain in the European Union. Speaking to reporters, he said that if Britons decide to leave the EU this could impact Japanese companies with operations in Britain.

Ishihara also comment that a decline in Japanese machinery orders in April was no reason to be pessimistic about capital expenditure and that he had no plans to change his economic assessment.
Reuters had reported that Japanese wholesale prices fell 4.2 percent in the year to May.
The fall in the corporate goods price index (CGPI), which measures the price companies charge each other for their goods and services, compares with the median market forecast for a 4.2 percent annual decrease and follows a 4.2 percent annual decrease in April.

Overall final goods prices -- the prices of finished products charged to businesses -- fell 3.0 percent from a year earlier.
Domestic final goods prices, which loosely track the consumer price index, fell 1.2 percent from a year earlier.

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AceTraderFx Jun 10: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/JPY)

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
10 Jun 2016 04:08

USD/JPY - ..... In total stark contrast to yesterday's weakness in Asia n European session, dlr maintains a firm undertone in Tokyo morning trading after a brief pullback fm o/n New York high of 107.17 to 106.91.

Renewed buying emerged at Asian open at 106.91 and pushed price to 107.26 after tripping some stops above said New York high, suggesting consolidation with upside bias is in store.
Bids have been raised to 107.00-106.90 and more below with stops touted below 106.50.
Offers are noted at 107.40/50 area, so further strong gain is unlikely to be repeated today as yesterday's usd's broad-based rally which started in Europe and then New York session is seen as short-covering in the greenback following last Friday's dlr selloff in the wake of disappointing U.S. payrolls report.

U.S. economic calendar is very light today but do pay attention to U.S. consumer confidence for June due out at 14:00GMT, street forecast is looking for the index to be 94.0 vs previous reading of 94.7, a higher number will give dlr a bit of a lift.

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AceTraderFx Jun 13: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/JPY)

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
13 Jun 2016 01:28

USD/JPY - ....... Despite a brief gain to 107.01 at New Zealand open, price retreated ahead of Asian open and fell to 106.38 as intra-day decline in Nikkei triggered broad-based buying in yen (N225 index is currently down 2.65% to 16163).

As investors are cautious ahead of this week's central bank meetings as well as Britain's June 23 referendum on whether to remain in the European Union, and are no economic data from U.S. today, suggesting choppy trading with downside bias would be seen but May's 18-month trough at 105.55 should remain intact.

At present, offers are noted at 106.80-90 n more at 107.00-10 with stops above 107.30, whilst bids are reported at 106.30-20 and then 106.10-00 with stops below there.

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