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  • #13,141
  • May 27, 2016 11:26pm May 27, 2016 11:26pm
WHERE IS Cecil Gee? I wonder if he has had more skill & patience than I have had on this long vol trade? He was saying he would wait to see ^vix back down to 10.....well, maybe we will actually get there...

I am looking at SVXY.....could it be possible for it to fill that Aug 2015 gap?
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,142
  • May 27, 2016 11:44pm May 27, 2016 11:44pm
SVXY put on $11 in the last 7 td's, I wonder if it could do that ahead of Jun opex? I might put something in Jun call diagonal combos.....might not do much for the Jun UVXY call verts that are bleeding on my books, though....the only thing that could really help me now is some real, actual volatility, and days of it....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,143
  • May 28, 2016 5:35am May 28, 2016 5:35am
Quoting The Fool
{quote}gonna be wood-chipper time, I just need somebody to push the last of me through, I can handle most of it....
Yeah, I get that too sometimes. I guess we all feel like "wood-chipper time" if we trade long enough. Don't worry, things can only get better (eventually)
You reap what you sow.
  • #13,144
  • May 28, 2016 5:55pm May 28, 2016 5:55pm
Here it is, boys: the only 3 or 4 star liquidity underlying with an IVR above 50 in Dough's "TastyTrade" Grid:

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The market isn't exactly making putting on a new premium selling trade a day very easy ... . I'm not very good at hand sitting, thumb twiddling, settling for less ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #13,145
  • May 28, 2016 6:15pm May 28, 2016 6:15pm
There's no point in selling options when there's no premium. I think the long rollup into July ER's, like the AAPL DC's I show above, will have good chances....otherwise, enjoy the nice warm months.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,146
  • May 28, 2016 6:42pm May 28, 2016 6:42pm
Quoting The Fool
There's no point in selling options when there's no premium. I think the long rollup into July ER's, like the AAPL DC's I show above, will have good chances....otherwise, enjoy the nice warm months.
Yep ... . Shit can change, but this is feeling a lot like last summer ... . Drying powder out until the next earnings cycle I guess. I didn't play squat for earnings this time around, since the IV in virtually everything was depressed and wasn't up to my "snuff." Found other stuff to play, in any event (GDX, EWZ, XME), so it all worked out in the end ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #13,147
  • May 28, 2016 6:57pm May 28, 2016 6:57pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} Yep ... . Shit can change, but this is feeling a lot like last summer ... . Drying powder out until the next earnings cycle I guess. I didn't play squat for earnings this time around, since the IV in virtually everything was depressed and wasn't up to my "snuff." Found other stuff to play, in any event (GDX, EWZ, XME), so it all worked out in the end ... .
There's always my comparatively short duration SPX, RUT IC's. But they're "juicy" because of the size of the underlying, not because the IV is there ... . They merely get "juicier" when there's higher IV ... . I'm ready to transition into those and away from SPY, IWM anyhoo ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #13,148
  • Edited 10:03pm May 28, 2016 9:16pm | Edited 10:03pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} Yep ... . Shit can change, but this is feeling a lot like last summer ... . Drying powder out until the next earnings cycle I guess. ... .
yes. if you pick your poison well in the next week or so you can probably get in many kinds of spreads very cheap, with iv's so low. I am just cleaning up Jun 17 UVXY trades, will be buying back all the fotm short calls out past $35 - they're all <$0.05 buybacks now....so that will give me a pile of long calls down around $20...if I get a little luck and we see some juice I can sell against them at $25 and let new spreads roll into the end of FOMC week.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,149
  • May 29, 2016 3:44am May 29, 2016 3:44am
Quoting The Fool
WHERE IS Cecil Gee? I wonder if he has had more skill & patience than I have had on this long vol trade? He was saying he would wait to see ^vix back down to 10.....well, maybe we will actually get there... I am looking at SVXY.....could it be possible for it to fill that Aug 2015 gap? {image}
still around guys waiting for 10 but will go long VOL at around 11 on VIX with 6+ months out, most likely will take the trade on UVXY as the movement looks to exceed the cash VIX. a few months ago I said somewhere here we need to accommodate not just the brexit event but the US elections and I believe this is the reason why the market is yoyo phase. I'm also looking for a further % decrease in volatility from now too brexit for starters. Once that VIX nears 11 I will make that trade and will look for 30x return by March 2017, that's my plan we shall see. Goods luck Guys
  • #13,150
  • May 29, 2016 4:01am May 29, 2016 4:01am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} still around guys waiting for 10 but will go long VOL at around 11 on VIX with 6+ months out, most likely will take the trade on UVXY as the movement looks to exceed the cash VIX. a few months ago I said somewhere here we need to accommodate not just the brexit event but the US elections and I believe this is the reason why the market is yoyo phase. I'm also looking for a further % decrease in volatility from now too brexit for starters. Once that VIX nears 11 I will make that trade and will look for 30x return by March 2017, that's my plan...
obviously with the above statement and trade idea the markets will have to slump, the market may surprise most by making even higher highs as everyone is expecting a fall but these same will start questioning themselves as the market doesn't look like it wants to turn and then when its not expected too BANG keep an eye on the VIX
  • #13,151
  • May 29, 2016 8:56am May 29, 2016 8:56am
Really wasn't looking at the RNC as a volatility event ... . http://finance.yahoo.com/news/expect...221745490.html
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #13,152
  • May 29, 2016 9:16am May 29, 2016 9:16am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} still around guys waiting for 10 but will go long VOL at around 11 on VIX with 6+ months out, most likely will take the trade on UVXY as the movement looks to exceed the cash VIX. a few months ago I said somewhere here we need to accommodate not just the brexit event but the US elections and I believe this is the reason why the market is yoyo phase. I'm also looking for a further % decrease in volatility from now too brexit for starters. Once that VIX nears 11 I will make that trade and will look for 30x return by March 2017, that's my plan...
Hope the market doesn't yank sub-12 away from us here ... . On the other hand, I need a pop at some point because of entries in VXX somewhere on those dips we had at beginning of April, mid-April, and mid-May.

Because UVXY is moving into potential reverse split territory (which will throw a wrench into any options setup (see Posts, above), I'm looking at SVXY short instead, as it looks to have dodged the split bullet for a bit ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #13,153
  • May 29, 2016 9:33am May 29, 2016 9:33am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Really wasn't looking at the RNC as a volatility event ... . http://finance.yahoo.com/news/expect...221745490.html
looking to a similar fall to when Bush jnr took office at the height of the dot boom era if my memory's correct
  • #13,154
  • May 29, 2016 9:35am May 29, 2016 9:35am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} Hope the market doesn't yank sub-12 away from us here ... . On the other hand, I need a pop at some point because of entries in VXX somewhere on those dips we had at beginning of April, mid-April, and mid-May. Because UVXY is moving into potential reverse split territory (which will throw a wrench into any options setup (see Posts, above), I'm looking at SVXY short instead, as it looks to have dodged the split bullet for a bit ... .
if that happens then cash VIX it will be
  • #13,155
  • May 29, 2016 9:37am May 29, 2016 9:37am
FB, MSFT, AMZN all setting up for increased volatility plays real soon
  • #13,156
  • May 29, 2016 12:03pm May 29, 2016 12:03pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Really wasn't looking at the RNC as a volatility event ... . http://finance.yahoo.com/news/expect...221745490.html
yea I have had that on the radar, especially when it seemed like there might be a contested convention, even now there is room for surprises.....at the RNC convention and in the runup to the GE.

another event waiting to happen is the first "native" Zika cases....there will be some in Gulf Coast States, I remember the ebola scare, maybe not as bad as that, maybe worse.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,157
  • May 29, 2016 12:04pm May 29, 2016 12:04pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
FB, MSFT, AMZN all setting up for increased volatility plays real soon
good to see you Cecil & best of luck
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,158
  • May 29, 2016 12:58pm May 29, 2016 12:58pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
still around guys waiting for 10 but will go long VOL at around 11 on VIX with 6+ months out, most likely will take the trade on UVXY
just keep an eye on UVXY, as they have reverse split it many times when it has fallen below $10
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,159
  • May 29, 2016 1:15pm May 29, 2016 1:15pm
Quoting The Fool
another event waiting to happen is the first "native" Zika cases....there will be some in Gulf Coast States, I remember the ebola scare, maybe not as bad as that, maybe worse.
then, of course, the inevitable alien invasion is overdue....I will be available to teach the aliens about the stock markets

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,160
  • Edited 3:30am May 30, 2016 2:58am | Edited 3:30am
put/call skew in SPY is > 2:1. So the market makers are saying they put a premium on the idea of the market falling (by July anyway), because they think that is more likely than not. When I see options values extending deep in the chains, because of time or premium or both, I look at fly spreads - I know I will be able to structure flys that are cheap yet have good r:r...
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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