Before or after the fact? | Page 2 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Profitable EA, Fact or Fiction? 35 replies

95% losers - Fact or Fiction? 85 replies

Interesting Fact About Horizontal Support/Resistance 8 replies

Trades Before Fact 570 replies

Trading sytems losing value with age or the more people trade it. Fact or fiction? 25 replies

Attachments: Before or after the fact?
Exit Attachments

Before or after the fact?

  • #21
  • May 26, 2016 3:23pm May 26, 2016 3:23pm
Quoting simond2002
{quote} {quote} I hope this is clearer.
My apologies.
IMHO, everything on forums should be taken with a grain of salt.
Traders are kind enough to take time to post and share.
When you find something you do not like, move on rather than hurl insults.
Have confidence the traders here are adults and are capable of deciding for themselves.
No need to argue online.
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #22
  • May 26, 2016 3:34pm May 26, 2016 3:34pm
Quoting ronaleo10
Nice thread....but you are going to be slated by majority here
Hehe, yea I know, "sticks and stones" and all that
  • #23
  • May 26, 2016 3:41pm May 26, 2016 3:41pm
Quoting ronaleo10
Nice thread....but you are going to be slated by majority here . I guess the point thread starter has is.....He is not asking for any kind of spoon feeding or forcing anyone to show their results. Its for all those people who post their screen shots of trade after the facts , if you want to show your trades than why dont you do it before the fact or at least as someone suggested or ( few above has already done it ) in real time. Or at least if you post after the fact screen shots ...attach your losing trades too. 95 % of folks who posts after the...
YES

I post charts of possibilities and what happens next in my threads.
The simple rules are listed and anyone can follow along.
Of course, there are questions.
What is apparent to me, is not always obvious to others.
These questions help me to clarify the method.
Most traders are interesting in learning.
Of course, there are hecklers who obviously have nothing better to do.
I am thankful to have a place to share ideas with fellow traders.
Trading can be lonely.
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #24
  • May 26, 2016 3:47pm May 26, 2016 3:47pm
Quoting TooSlow
I post charts of possibilities and what happens next in my threads. The simple rules are listed and anyone can follow along. Of course, there are questions. What is apparent to me, is not always obvious to others. These questions help me to clarify the method. Most traders are interesting in learning. Of course, there are hecklers who obviously have nothing better to do. I am thankful to have a place to share ideas with fellow traders. Trading can be lonely.
Thanks TS, the above paragraph gets right to the nub of where I'm coming from.

Regarding the hecklers - yep, couldn't agree more. I used to just put them straight on the ignore list but I don't bother anymore. If they want to make fools of themselves that's up to them
  • #25
  • May 26, 2016 4:00pm May 26, 2016 4:00pm
Quoting simond2002
{quote} Thanks TS, the above paragraph gets right to the nub of where I'm coming from. Regarding the hecklers - yep, couldn't agree more. I used to just put them straight on the ignore list but I don't bother anymore. If they want to make fools of themselves that's up to them
Ignore is my friend.
It is deployed immediately.
Thread readers deserve better.
Their time is valuable and should be respected.
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #26
  • May 26, 2016 7:41pm May 26, 2016 7:41pm
Quoting simond2002
I understand that nobody can make anybody else do anything. FF is a pure "free-for-all" in that respect. Nevertheless, we as individuals can be 100 percent responsible for our own course, and this includes applying the filter button when necessary. Thoughts anyone?
Simon,

I think you've answered your question, at least to some extent, in your last paragraph.

As for me, I have no expectations in terms of trading forums providing any sort of worthwhile education. If upward of 95% of aspiring traders eventually fail, then much of what's posted will necessarily be a case of the blind leading the blind. I've been a member here since 2006 and I'd estimate that less than 5% of my useful knowledge has come from forums, maybe 10% of it from educators (both paid and free), and the rest is the result of my own trial-and-error process in developing different ideas and strategies.

I don't have a problem with folk posting after-the-fact trades. I see any outcome as representing their desired, best-case result, as opposed to being a typical result. I use forums and educators as a means of sourcing new (and sometimes quite radical) ideas. If I think an idea has some merit, I'll take it away and test it myself, and possibly develop it further. I don't take anything that's said, or claimed, for granted; and anyway, how profitable (or otherwise) the presenter is doesn't really bother me. Many strategies work profitably when market conditions are favorable, and fail otherwise; sometimes it's a case of how and when the trader applies his strategy, as opposed to the strategy itself. As I've progressed further in my journey, it's become more about thinking for myself, and applying broadbrush concepts and top-down contextual analysis, rather than blindly following a plug'n'play, color-by-numbers strategy.

I suspect that one major reason members avoid posting before-the-fact trades is the risk that they could become losses, and hurt their credibility. Alternatively, if somebody is teaching a concept, it might be preferable to show what an ideal outcome should look like. Perhaps the teacher should make it clearer to his audience that trading is a game of probabilities, and it's not necessarily a typical result.

David
  • #27
  • May 26, 2016 7:44pm May 26, 2016 7:44pm
“Those who can't do, teach. And those who can't teach, teach gym.” Woody Allen said it best.
Most forex "teachers/gurus" should be teaching gym.
  • #28
  • May 26, 2016 8:19pm May 26, 2016 8:19pm
Quoting HiddenGap
{quote} Hello Skyway. I believe your sincerity. * What happens almost 100% of the time. 1. Trader 1 makes 10 trades, called in real time. 2. Trader 1 loses 10 trades. 3. EVERYONE ON FF CALLS THE TRADER A FRAUD, AND MOVES ON TO THE NEXT (HOPEFULLY) BIG THING. What should happen. 1. Trader 1 makes 10 trades, called in real time. 2. Trader 1 loses 10 trades. 3. Everyone on FF discusses the reality and inevitability of down draws. 4a. Everyone on FF discusses that trading is not about certainties but rather probabilities. 4b. Each trader on FF does...

HG

Great commentary as always !!!



TSD
  • #29
  • May 26, 2016 8:46pm May 26, 2016 8:46pm
Quoting HiddenGap
Which brings up my next question(s). If a trader is looking at a 5 minute chart. Where and how does he have time to do the analysis, use Snagit, annotate the chart, write a post and still not miss anything happening as the chart updates in real time? Shouldn't trading the position trump everything else?


Color me a lot shocked by this, dude.

You are HIDDENGAP!

You analyze HIDDENGAPS...

And you can't figure out how this is done on an M1 or M5 chart giving anybody enough time to printscreen, cut, copy n paste?

Seriously?
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #30
  • May 26, 2016 9:15pm May 26, 2016 9:15pm
Quoting GEfx
I think that is a reasonable request. Here is a sample for the GBP/AUD. I am building a sell position now in one short term account with 2 open trades, with stop at b/e, while maintaining my buy positions in a second long term account. So, my short term positions flipped from long to short, and my long term positions remain long. My short target is an unspecified Fib level, and or the bottom of the grey area on the chart. If I can get to that I will probably exit the shorts and wait for the next move. A sample of my trading can be found in my trading...
That's the problem with supplying trading community with before-the-fact analysis. I saw your opinion - forgot in ten minutes about it as I also read dozens of other info including trading analysis from others. For many its not unclear what combo of rules, patterns indicators you use to achieve strong forecast, many just not not believe in your methods. But post-fact charts is also like a proof that your method works on history, so you can start to analyze instantly, trying to understand if your method is valid, etc.
  • #31
  • May 26, 2016 9:53pm May 26, 2016 9:53pm
Quoting hanover
{quote} I see any outcome as representing their desired, best-case result, as opposed to being a typical result....... trading is a game of probabilities
Excellent summary! I agree with David.

Does not matter if it is before or after the fact. If condition 1 + 2 + 3 + etc exists = Enter trade. Keep repeating every time regardless of whether the trade is a win or loss. The only thing that matters is your win/loss ratio. If your wins are more than losses, you have an edge.

Plenty of good systems here on FF with nice R:R. The question you should be asking "Can I patiently wait for those setups?". In other words, you already have the before-the-fact rules. All you need to do is wait for similar conditions to appear. Now you decide what kind of conditions you like or can easily point out.
In other news: A ranger was trapped between a bull and a bear
  • #32
  • May 26, 2016 10:12pm May 26, 2016 10:12pm
Quoting digiff
{quote} Excellent summary! I agree with David. Does not matter if it is before or after the fact. If condition 1 + 2 + 3 + etc exists = Enter trade. Keep repeating every time regardless of whether the trade is a win or loss. The only thing that matters is your win/loss ratio. If your wins are more than losses, you have an edge. Plenty of good systems here on FF with nice R:R. The question you should be asking "Can I patiently wait for those setups?". In other words, you already have the before-the-fact rules. All you need to do is wait for similar...
Sounds about right.
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #33
  • May 27, 2016 2:28am May 27, 2016 2:28am
Quoting Magix
{quote} cut, copy n paste? Seriously?


I don't think I've ever seen a HiddenGap post that was a "cut, copy n paste".

Trader writes a posts as if it were a published book.
Trust the Market
  • #34
  • May 27, 2016 4:12am May 27, 2016 4:12am
Quoting hanover
Simon, I think you've answered your question, at least to some extent, in your last paragraph.
Hi David,

Thanks for responding. Yes, I think you’re right and ultimately the solution does lie within the last paragraph.

My own learning curve is similar to yours insofar as I’d estimate that 10% of my useful knowledge came from webinars, whilst a further 20% came from FF. The rest, in its current form, is my own process. Incidentally, on the FF front, there’s an irony that the (ex) member who was the biggest help to me piecing supply and demand trading together was also quite probably the most prolific before-the-fact poster these forums have ever seen.

Like you, I eventually reached the conclusion that it doesn’t matter who shows what in realtime or not. If we’re going to trade our own account there comes a point when our own decision must trump that of those around us. On a personal note, I do wish I’d realised it sooner, however, and if there’s a reason to me starting this discussion then perhaps this is it.

All the best
  • #35
  • May 27, 2016 6:19am May 27, 2016 6:19am
Quoting hanover
{quote}Simon, I think you've answered your question, at least to some extent, in your last paragraph. As for me, I have no expectations in terms of trading forums providing any sort of worthwhile education. If upward of 95% of aspiring traders eventually fail, then much of what's posted will necessarily be a case of the blind leading the blind. I've been a member here since 2006 and I'd estimate that less than 5% of my useful knowledge has come from forums, maybe 10% of it from educators (both paid and free), and the rest is the result of my own...
The WHEN part is spot on!
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #36
  • May 27, 2016 6:27am May 27, 2016 6:27am
Quoting Hawkins
{quote} I don't think I've ever seen a HiddenGap post that was a "cut, copy n paste". Trader writes a posts as if it were a published book.
Really?

You assume that in posts where he has multiple quotes that he actually manually types out each of the quotes instead of cutting and pasting?

Great outside of the box thinking here, dude.


In any case, I was actually referring to posting a chart, steps being.
1. Print screen.
2. Open new MS Paint - Ctrl+v.
3. Highlight area.
3. Ctrl+c.
4. New MS Paint.
5. Ctrl+v.
6. Save chart.
7. Upload on FF.

This typically shouldn't take more than 60 seconds and if in this time you have missed a trade, there is something terrible going on with your over all logic and expectation of trade range.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #37
  • May 27, 2016 7:03am May 27, 2016 7:03am
Quoting Magix
This typically shouldn't take more than 60 seconds and if in this time you have missed a trade, there is something terrible going on with your over all logic and expectation of trade range.
Couldn't agree more.

I took a speculative long a few candles ago to see if GJ was going to break the range. It didn't happen, so I'll wait and see what gives, if anything at 160.53.

Both M5 and M15 charts attached for reference.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_8.png Size: 45 KB


Another pair I'm watching is EURCAD. Interested to see what happens at 1.4556. Chart attached.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_9.png Size: 39 KB



This entire post has taken less than two minutes to write.

One poster here said that people either trade or write. Personally, I think they can and very often do both, with the writing bit being the in-between bit while patiently waiting for setups.
  • #38
  • May 27, 2016 7:06am May 27, 2016 7:06am
Quoting Magix
{quote} Really? You assume that in posts where he has multiple quotes that he actually manually types out each of the quotes instead of cutting and pasting? Great outside of the box thinking here, dude.
hah I love it! You assumed I assumed, its magixical.

I was referring to any post HG has ever made when talking about an actual chart.

I've seen you post on Malcolm's thread so, I think its safe to assume that you have read one of HG's post with a chart. They are quite lengthy and detailed. I have no doubt that HG spends no less than 30 minutes in writing a post in detail so that the point is clear. (Almost like a novel, wait didn't I say that already?)

The point I am making here is that in HG's case there is no quick paste and post, the posts are methodical and very detailed. I just assumed you realized that in his case.
Trust the Market
  • #39
  • May 27, 2016 7:21am May 27, 2016 7:21am
Quoting Hawkins
The point I am making here is that in HG's case there is no quick paste and post, the posts are methodical and very detailed. I just assumed you realized that in his case.
You have no point, you are simply defending HG.

See how long it takes you to post a chart here at FF. Pick any thread, hell, just go through the motions of it.
It takes no time at all.

That's the point.

Chart analysis is done in many ways and can be done off of any time frame. Taking a position in any trade is a single mouse click.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...09#post8918509 See HERE -> http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...57#post8917557 http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...05#post8899805 See HERE ->http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...82#post8898882 http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...87#post8896887 See HERE ->http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...92#post8894692 http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...44#post8894644 See HERE ->http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...15#post8905015

Working with Supply and Demand, or Hidden Gaps, isn't any different and I do this shit all day and trade off of an M1/M5 chart.

Quoting simond2002
This entire post has taken less than two minutes to write.
One poster here said that people either trade or write. Personally, I think they can and very often do both, with the writing bit being the in-between bit while patiently waiting for setups.
Exactly.

2 Minutes for a post.

This has and will have absolutely no impact on my trading day, except to maybe fill the Hidden Gaps between trades.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #40
  • May 27, 2016 7:31am May 27, 2016 7:31am
Quoting simond2002
Another pair I'm watching is EURCAD. Interested to see what happens at 1.4556. Chart attached. {image}
Bit of follow through on this.

ECAD has broken the level so I'm not interested to buy on scalps. H1 looks like resistance may kick but on this TF it's going to be a while before I would consider selling it.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_10.png Size: 25 KB


The only other pair I'm watching is AUDJPY, which has broken local support and is currently retracing in a flag. If bearish PA sets up I'll sell it. If not, I won't.

Back to sleeping, or writing

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_11.png Size: 44 KB
0 traders viewing now