Before or after the fact? | Forex Factory

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Before or after the fact?

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited May 29, 2016 2:47pm May 26, 2016 10:13am | Edited May 29, 2016 2:47pm
I wanted to hear people's views/opinions on whether or not they feel it important to see some form of "before the fact" analysis from traders who enter discussions here on FF, may take a quite forceful view on how and how not to trade, and yet are unable (or unwilling) to present any form of before-the-fact analysis to substantiate their position. By "before-the-fact" I don't mean, "Here's current price, if you go long, that's the target, and if you go short, that's the target." Can never lose, right? What I mean by before-the-fact analysis, is a clear, simple chart with an honest view of where one thinks price may be heading, and why.

My trading journey began in 2011 around the same time I began posting on FF. It's been as transparent a journey as I could possibly make it - obviously within limits. There have been very few traders that I've actually corresponded with along the way who have really helped me learn to see the market for what it is. In fact the only guy (called himself "doctor" !!) that really gave me a leg-up in a "real-time" sense, always posted before-the-act analysis. This was absolutely invaluable to me because it gave me the opportunity to "trade through the line" with him on my own terminal, and then compare results after-the-fact. doctor never posted his entries in real-time by the way - nor did he need to or I expect him to.

If I knew back then what I know now I would've applied a rather broad sweeping filter button to the forum aspect of this journey. By doing so I reckon it could've saved a couple of years of my life. And let's be honest, the most valuable commodity we have in life, is our time. I'm not suggesting that nobody should contribute, or indeed has anything useful to contribute, unless they've posted some before-the-fact analysis. But I've noticed a heck of a lot of, "You coulda taken this trade", "You shoulda done it this way", and "Everyone's gonna lose at Forex" by people who, quite frankly, don't even seem to trade.

At some point common sense has to prevail, and IMHO the only way to substantiate such absolute claims (and hopefully benefit those traders being suckered in to a kind of never ending cul-de-sac of failed processes) is for traders to put their attitude where the keyboard is, and post some before-the-fact analysis. Trade journals is an obvious exception.

I understand that nobody can make anybody else do anything. FF is a pure "free-for-all" in that respect. Nevertheless, we as individuals can be 100 percent responsible for our own course, and this includes applying the filter button when necessary.

Thoughts anyone?
  • #2
  • May 26, 2016 10:33am May 26, 2016 10:33am
Quoting simond2002
I wanted to hear people's views/opinions on whether or not they feel it important to see some form of "before the fact" analysis from traders who enter discussions here on FF, may take a quite forceful view on how and how not to trade, and yet are unable (or unwilling) to present any form of before-the-fact analysis to substantiate their position. By "before-the-fact" I don't mean, "Here's current price, if you go long, that's the target, and if you go short, that's the target." Can never lose, right? What I mean by before-the-fact analysis, is...
This is coming from the PoV that before-the-fact analysis = good trading. IMO before the fact analysis is barely 30% of the actual trading. Most of the times the market can and will surprise us and to me trading is about assimilating any new information in a meaningful way.

Also if I am not interpreting this thread wrongly, are you somewhat implying that some traders have an "obligation" to spoon-feed other traders with "before-the-fact" analysis when said traders are already posting real-time analysis when they don't have to do so? hmm.
Build good relationships with others.
  • #3
  • Edited 3:08pm May 26, 2016 11:08am | Edited 3:08pm
I think that is a reasonable request. Here is a sample for the GBP/AUD. I am building a sell position now in one short term account with 2 open trades, with stop at b/e, while maintaining my buy positions in a second long term account. So, my short term positions flipped from long to short, and my long term positions remain long. My short target is an unspecified Fib level, and or the bottom of the grey area on the chart. If I can get to that I will probably exit the shorts and wait for the next move. A sample of my trading can be found in my trading journal here on FF.

I will not argue or defend my analysis to anyone, so if you don't agree with me or object to my trading, please feel free to go f**k yourself. But I do hope this helps a few open minds. Good trading to everyone!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #4
  • May 26, 2016 11:22am May 26, 2016 11:22am
Quoting shellsnail
Also if I am not interpreting this thread wrongly, are you somewhat implying that some traders have an "obligation" to spoon-feed other traders with "before-the-fact" analysis when said traders are already posting real-time analysis when they don't have to do so? hmm.
Read the last paragraph.
  • #5
  • May 26, 2016 11:26am May 26, 2016 11:26am
Quoting GEfx
I think that is a reasonable request. Here is a sample for the GBP/AUD. I am building a sell position now in one short term account with 2 open trades, with stop at b/e, while maintaining my buy positions in a second long term account. So, my short term positions flipped from long to short, and my long term positions remain long. My short target is an unspecified Fib level, and or the bottom of the grey area on the chart. If I can get to that I will probably exit the shorts and wait for the next move. A sample of my trading can be found in my trading...
Thanks GEfx - well put!
  • #6
  • May 26, 2016 11:51am May 26, 2016 11:51am
Quoting shellsnail
This is coming from the PoV that before-the-fact analysis = good trading. IMO before the fact analysis is barely 30% of the actual trading......

Well said.

Some traders have entry signals. The "before-the-fact analysis" was done LONG BEFORE THE SIGNAL WAS DESIGNATED A VALID ENTRY SIGNAL(ie backtesting /forward testing). Now the trader's job is to simply take the signal (trading on autopilot). To not take the signal would be to call himself a liar.

These same traders may also surrender to the market. They may not set profit targets (putting the trader's wants ahead of the market's wants). They may simply stay in the trade until a signal in the opposite direction appears or until something changes in the moment.

This is a completely valid way of trading. Just because it does not fit one's notion of a "valuable forum post" does not make it an invalid way to trade.


Quoting shellsnail
Also if I am not interpreting this thread wrongly, are you somewhat implying that some traders have an "obligation" to spoon-feed other traders with "before-the-fact" analysis .....
It does always seem like people want to have their homework done for them. For some traders it truly is a matter of: I am Long/Short because my method tells me to be so. I've done all the analysis to get me to a point where I have faith in the signal(s).........



This post has taken me about 1 hour to write as I try and multi-task.

Which brings up my next question(s). If a trader is looking at a 5 minute chart. Where and how does he have time to do the analysis, use Snagit, annotate the chart, write a post and still not miss anything happening as the chart updates in real time? Shouldn't trading the position trump everything else?
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #7
  • May 26, 2016 1:01pm May 26, 2016 1:01pm
Quoting HiddenGap
{quote} Which brings up my next question(s). If a trader is looking at a 5 minute chart. Where and how does he have time to do the analysis, use Snagit, annotate the chart, write a post and still not miss anything happening as the chart updates in real time? Shouldn't trading the position trump everything else?


one either trades or writes.

D.P.
Hunting High and Low
  • #8
  • May 26, 2016 1:11pm May 26, 2016 1:11pm
Some leeway is granted if the "before the fact" includes within some reasonable time, depending on time frame traded, for the trader to post his charts after making his trades. Where trade management occurs due to new market inputs, variation of original trade idea that's updated is good, does not diminish nothing at all.

But posting charts when the market has moved within a few pips of tp or after tp is nothing more than cherry picking.

What we want to know is simply this, does the strategy you propose work or not ?
Are there any other intricate conditions that need to be met for successful execution of the strategy ?

If you're going to show/teach others how you trade or demonstrate a trading strategy, do it the right way and that's real time. Don't give excuses of signals or spoon feeding or do your own homework.....bla, bla, bla.....

We don't give a damn if you're a good trader or not, never going to change our lot. So stuff your claims up your arse. And stop that silly 'it's a small position anyway' or it's now be'......really who cares. And good writers don't make good traders, far from it and good traders may not write well, it's about trading and not writing.

We make a great deal of traders who's willing to point us strategies that work. Better still teach us how it may work for us.
  • #9
  • May 26, 2016 1:11pm May 26, 2016 1:11pm
Quoting simond2002
I wanted to hear people's views/opinions on whether or not they feel it important to see some form of "before the fact" analysis from traders who enter discussions here on FF, may take a quite forceful view on how and how not to trade, and yet are unable (or unwilling) to present any form of before-the-fact analysis to substantiate their position. By "before-the-fact" I don't mean, "Here's current price, if you go long, that's the target, and if you go short, that's the target." Can never lose, right? What I mean by before-the-fact analysis, is...
very simple,anyone who is not showing how trading with trade explorer here or somewhere else site, is simply masturbating
  • #10
  • May 26, 2016 1:14pm May 26, 2016 1:14pm
Quoting vasily
{quote} very simple,anyone who is not showing how trading with trade explorer here or somewhere else site, is simply masturbating
"ı short sp500 yes its making very strong move against me but ı have a winner from yesterday so if buffers this loss"
"this is not my major #1 trading system ı share here"
"ı didnt share all details here"
  • #11
  • Edited 2:40pm May 26, 2016 1:35pm | Edited 2:40pm
Quoting HiddenGap
It does always seem like people want to have their homework done for them.
There's nowhere I've intimated this or suggested traders are obligated to do anything to help other traders. I've just stated a point of view and asked traders for theirs.

Even if before the fact analysis did make up 30% of trading this doesn't mean the additional 70% is any easier or straightforward. But in a trading world profuse with information it does, as one trader at FF recently pointed out to me, provide a useful filtering system for those taking their first steps at learning.
  • #12
  • May 26, 2016 1:54pm May 26, 2016 1:54pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: TooSlow2.png Size: 45 KB


It is hard to determine whether or not you are talking about predictions or setups.
When I enter a trade, I have no idea how far it and how long will go in my direction.
I know where I put my stop loss.
Some trades win.
Some win big.
Some win small.
Some get stopped out for a loss.

My long entry is at the highest H1 open for today.
My short entry is at the lowest H1 open for today.
These levels change as price moves up and down.

You will have to decide whether or not this setup meets your criteria.
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #13
  • May 26, 2016 2:14pm May 26, 2016 2:14pm
Quoting TooSlow
{image} It is hard to determine whether or not you are talking about predictions or setups.

Quoting simond2002
I wanted to hear people's views/opinions on whether or not they feel it important to see some form of "before the fact" analysis from traders who enter discussions here on FF, may take a quite forceful view on how and how not to trade, and yet are unable (or unwilling) to present any form of before-the-fact analysis to substantiate their position.
I hope this is clearer.
  • #14
  • May 26, 2016 2:17pm May 26, 2016 2:17pm
Quoting skyway
..... What we want to know is simply this, does the strategy you propose work or not ? Are there any other intricate conditions that need to be met for successful execution of the strategy ? If you're going to show/teach others how you trade or demonstrate a trading strategy, do it the right way and that's real time. Don't give excuses of signals or spoon feeding or do your own homework...
Hello Skyway.

I believe your sincerity.

* What happens almost 100% of the time.

1. Trader 1 makes 10 trades, called in real time.
2. Trader 1 loses 10 trades.
3. EVERYONE ON FF CALLS THE TRADER A FRAUD, AND MOVES ON TO THE NEXT (HOPEFULLY) BIG THING.

What should happen.

1. Trader 1 makes 10 trades, called in real time.
2. Trader 1 loses 10 trades.
3. Everyone on FF discusses the reality and inevitability of down draws.
4a. Everyone on FF discusses that trading is not about certainties but rather probabilities.
4b. Each trader on FF does a self assessment on what level of probability he or she is comfortable with. Some traders are fine with and can make loads of money trading a method/system that is correct 1 in 4 trades (25%).
5. Civil discussions take place on the notion that no matter what you method/system the probability of an individual trade is really only 50%: you are either right or wrong. Note if we include break even, the probability goes down.

*What happens almost 100% of the time.

1. Trader 2 makes 3 trades, called in real time.
2. Trader 2 wins 3 trades, doubling his account balance.
3. Everyone on FF rushes to call the trader the next big thing and cries out for "more calls". Where more calls means give us actionable trade information for free. Do our homework for us.
4. Anybody that states "don't confuse genius with a bull market, is called a hater and banned.

*What should happen.

1. Trader 2 makes 3 trades, called in real time.
2. Trader 2 wins 3 trades, doubling his account balance.
3. Everyone on FF discusses the reality and inevitability of down draws.
4a. Everyone on FF discusses that trading is not about certainties but rather probabilities.
4b. Each trader on FF does a self assessment on what level of probability he or she is comfortable with. Some traders are fine with and can make loads of money trading a method/system that is correct 1 in 4 trades (25%).
5. Civil discussions take place on the notion that no matter what you method/system the probability of an individual trade is really only 50%: you are either right or wrong. Note if we include break even, the probability goes down.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #15
  • May 26, 2016 2:25pm May 26, 2016 2:25pm
Quoting vasily
{quote} very simple,anyone who is not showing how trading with trade explorer here or somewhere else site, is simply masturbating
Thanks v - yeah I agree - partly. For instance, I choose not to show a trade explorer. I don't yet consider myself far enough along in my own learning to do so. However, I do choose, on occasion, to show setups before-the-fact. The reason I do this is to satisfy a moral obligation to myself that in the event I do ever contribute something to someone else's thread, I'm able, to the best of my ablity do so from a point of demonstrable knowledge.
  • #16
  • May 26, 2016 2:30pm May 26, 2016 2:30pm
Quoting simond2002
{quote} Thanks v - yeah I agree - partly. For instance, I choose not to show a trade explorer. I don't yet consider myself far enough along in my own learning to do so. However, I do choose, on occasion, to show setups before-the-fact. The reason I do this is to satisfy a moral obligation to myself that in the event I do ever contribute something to someone else's thread, I'm able, to the best of my ablity do so from a point of demonstrable knowledge.
you dont have to.nobody can be foce to show results.ı make no offense.but then this people shouldt come out with ı am great trader ı live with trading ı trade this good ı manage this good.ı am the best of here...... blah blah blah
making trade calls,posting charts analayzing dicussing is good and forex factoctorg is giving good serbice on this topics.but when it comes to results ı see many people here are the best traders making big money but you can see just trade calls.this is stupid
greenpips
  • #17
  • May 26, 2016 2:32pm May 26, 2016 2:32pm
Quoting vasily
ı make no offense.
No offense taken - really. I appreciate your no nonsense approach
  • #18
  • May 26, 2016 2:39pm May 26, 2016 2:39pm
Quoting HiddenGap
{quote} Hello Skyway. I believe your sincerity. * What happens almost 100% of the time. 1. Trader 1 makes 10 trades, called in real time. 2. Trader 1 loses 10 trades. 3. EVERYONE ON FF CALLS THE TRADER A FRAUD, AND MOVES ON TO THE NEXT (HOPEFULLY) BIG THING. What should happen. 1. Trader 1 makes 10 trades, called in real time. 2. Trader 1 loses 10 trades. 3. Everyone on FF discusses the reality and inevitability of down draws. 4a. Everyone on FF discusses that trading is not about certainties but rather probabilities. 4b. Each trader on FF does...
I evaluate the viability of the proposed trading strategy. Not the trader.

Even when a strategy in it's original format may have failed, the underlying concept may contain unique ideas that can spawn other winning strategies of a different form. That makes it a value added strategy.
  • #19
  • May 26, 2016 2:56pm May 26, 2016 2:56pm
Nice thread....but you are going to be slated by majority here .

I guess the point thread starter has is.....He is not asking for any kind of spoon feeding or forcing anyone to show their results. Its for all those people who post their screen shots of trade after the facts , if you want to show your trades than why dont you do it before the fact or at least as someone suggested or ( few above has already done it ) in real time.
Or at least if you post after the fact screen shots ...attach your losing trades too. 95 % of folks who posts after the fact posts never has any losing trades. Does that means markets are like ATM machine...if that's true all those so called pros would be billionaires.
  • #20
  • May 26, 2016 3:05pm May 26, 2016 3:05pm
Keep your noobish analysis and trading opinion to yourself.

"Before or after the fact"?
It doesn't matter!

99.99% here are suckers.
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