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Jay's High Probability Setups

  • #261
  • May 6, 2016 10:40pm May 6, 2016 10:40pm
Quoting vadimg
Thank you Jay for your posts! I hope I can comment here. Do you think EU has more room to go up? I am looking for buy 1.148 area and ride it for 300 pips to 1.18
Yep, as I mentioned before, target remains @ 1.1635. We'll be seeing it quite soon
  • #262
  • May 6, 2016 10:49pm May 6, 2016 10:49pm
Quoting NorthTrader
{quote} Hey Jay, Just wondering if you can offer any nuggets about how best to interpret these Bank Participation Reports. They don't seem to make much sense at first glance. For instance, the banks have been net long the CME Euro every month since the last available report in April 2014 (albeit to various degrees). So that means they they were net long throughout the massive move down from 1.4 to 1.05. WTF? Why would they do that? Similar story in gold too. The banks usually appear to be on the wrong side of the moves. Have a look at this chart:...
Hey North,

I'll be hopefully posting a kind of a prolonged post or maybe even thread about this subject in the near future.

Again, just like the COT analysis, there's no one way fit all data analysis in this. Each fx pair or commodity has its own characteristics when it comes to the BPR & that can be derived from the historic changes of the numbers in these reports.

In the BPR I mainly focus on the OI & change in Long/Short ratios

Banks are usually hedging their exposure using fx futures, that's why at the first look they seem to be on the wrong side.

Concerning the charting of the reports, I do it the good old manual (excel) way by myself & I have the data merged with some fx analysis to have both customized reports & charts that fit my needs.

Best,
Jay
  • #263
  • May 6, 2016 11:36pm May 6, 2016 11:36pm
FX JAY ..Pls what is the meaning of BPR and OI..thanks
  • #264
  • May 6, 2016 11:42pm May 6, 2016 11:42pm
Quoting femsey
FX JAY ..Pls what is the meaning of BPR and OI..thanks
BPR = Bank Participation Report
OI = open interest
You reap what you sow.
  • #265
  • May 6, 2016 11:46pm May 6, 2016 11:46pm
Thanks Jay. That helps a lot. Yes, I was thinking of going down the Excel route myself. Should be easy once all the historical data is loaded and you've got the charts set up.

Quoting FX-Jay
I'll be hopefully posting a kind of a prolonged post or maybe even thread about this subject in the near future.
Good stuff!

Have a nice weekend and thanks again.
You reap what you sow.
  • #266
  • May 8, 2016 7:43am May 8, 2016 7:43am
Thanks Jay....
  • #267
  • May 22, 2016 6:13am May 22, 2016 6:13am
Where is FX-Jay?
I have gone through all his posts since April ,2016. Haven't seen a single post after 8th of May. 2016.
I hope all is well . Eagerly waiting for Jay's posts.
When the going gets tough , the tough get going
  • #268
  • May 22, 2016 9:34pm May 22, 2016 9:34pm
d
Quoting FX-Jay
{quote} EURUSD reversed just 20 pips shy from the 1.1635 target, giving whoever missed a train a new chance to go long Again any down move is an opportunity to buy! Careful with the Money Management though, this can dip all the way to 1.1220. Trade smart!
it went 1.1220 indeed, just wondering has the probability expired considering almost 2 weeks. or still valid. thanks
trade safe
  • #269
  • May 24, 2016 4:09am May 24, 2016 4:09am
Quoting Stubborn
Where is FX-Jay? I have gone through all his posts since April ,2016. Haven't seen a single post after 8th of May. 2016. I hope all is well . Eagerly waiting for Jay's posts.
I post/participate when there are high probability trades available, or if I have something important/useful to say.

Currently I don't see any clear trade that is worth sharing other than the EU setup I mentioned before
All other setups have reached their targets as shown in the previous posts
  • #270
  • May 24, 2016 4:13am May 24, 2016 4:13am
Quoting zz_zhang
d{quote} it went 1.1220 indeed, just wondering has the probability expired considering almost 2 weeks. or still valid. thanks
Yep 1.1220 is now cleared. I don't have any new buy signal at the moment, but the old one with target 1.1635 still holds.

In other words, I've been adding to my long position as we dropped from 1.1600 to 1.1220, but I won't be adding any more positions below 1.1220 until/if I get a new buy signal. For the time being its hold & wait for me
  • #271
  • May 25, 2016 3:45am May 25, 2016 3:45am
Quoting FX-Jay
{quote} Yep 1.1220 is now cleared. I don't have any new buy signal at the moment, but the old one with target 1.1635 still holds. In other words, I've been adding to my long position as we dropped from 1.1600 to 1.1220, but I won't be adding any more positions below 1.1220 until/if I get a new buy signal. For the time being its hold & wait for me
When you will consider this setup invalid ? I mean when will you consider closing position if it just keep continuing downwards ? Because the range is quiet big as chart attached. I can see from your last call, price missed the target by just few pips only, so dont you consider it to be target hit as +/- few pips is ordinary in market.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU.jpg Size: 48 KB
Risk / Trade Management is the name of the Game
  • #272
  • May 25, 2016 1:29pm May 25, 2016 1:29pm
Quoting FxSaint
{quote} When you will consider this setup invalid ? I mean when will you consider closing position if it just keep continuing downwards ?
Hey FxSaint,

For my medium/long term trading method (that I am currently using), the setup becomes invalid when:
a) The trend reverses
b) I get an opposing signal

At the moment, given the way I look/study the market, EU's uptrend is still intact since the beginning of Feb, and the recent drop to 1.1220 is nothing more than an anticipated correction. I'm not buying below 1.1220 because for me the area below is a grey area that could be either 'noise' or a preparation for a trend reversal. As tempting as it may seem to keep on buying given that i still believe in a large move up, I prefer to control my emotions and stick to my plan.

Quoting FxSaint
{quote} the range is quiet big as chart attached
The bigger, the better. More room to make more money with less risk when you apply strict/smart money management rules.
I prefer larger TFs because they provide larger ranges, which leads to more retracements that lead to more profits

Quoting FxSaint
{quote} I can see from your last call, price missed the target by just few pips only, so dont you consider it to be target hit as +/- few pips is ordinary in market. {image}
For EURUSD my latest 2 targets were 1.1511 & 1.1635. We reached 1.1511 & were 20 pips away from 1.1635
I'm not considering the 1.1635 target met since for me 1.1635 is a conservative value that I expect to be exceeded. If 1.1635 was the ultimate target, then yes, maybe few pips +/- won't be a big deal, but in this particular case I still see it as a valid target that needs to be reached sooner rather than later.
  • #273
  • Jun 1, 2016 4:00am Jun 1, 2016 4:00am
Here are some quick statistics that I recently encountered & thought it would be interesting to share:

* Out of the last 10 years, GBPUSD had 9 out of 10 negative May months.
It was interesting to see GBPUSD reverse on the last day of May this year to close the month in the negative territory & continue the losing streak.

* Out of the last 10 years, EURUSD had 9 out of 10 negative May months.
The only positive May month was May 2009

* June has been historically the best month to buy EURUSD since its introduction in 1999.
11 out of the last 17 Junes have been positive (65%)
Average June Profit: 1.39%
Average June Loss: -1.04%
  • #274
  • Jun 1, 2016 9:07am Jun 1, 2016 9:07am
Quoting FX-Jay
Here are some quick statistics that I recently encountered & thought it would be interesting to share: * Out of the last 10 years, GBPUSD had 9 out of 10 negative May months. It was interesting to see GBPUSD reverse on the last day of May this year to close the month in the negative territory & continue the losing streak. * Out of the last 10 years, EURUSD had 9 out of 10 negative May months. The only positive May month was May 2009 * June has been historically the best month to buy EURUSD since its introduction in 1999. 11 out of the last 17 Junes...

interesting finding, hope to see EU rebound up and hit your target soon

trade safe
trade safe
  • #275
  • Jun 2, 2016 6:15am Jun 2, 2016 6:15am
Quoting FX-Jay
Here are some quick statistics that I recently encountered & thought it would be interesting to share: * Out of the last 10 years, GBPUSD had 9 out of 10 negative May months. It was interesting to see GBPUSD reverse on the last day of May this year to close the month in the negative territory & continue the losing streak. * Out of the last 10 years, EURUSD had 9 out of 10 negative May months. The only positive May month was May 2009 * June has been historically the best month to buy EURUSD since its introduction in 1999. 11 out of the last 17 Junes...
You are different kind of trader I have never come across. So indept insights towards the market. Good to have you in community. Thanks for bringing valuable information to us through your intelligence & hard work. Hope you stay here with us forever.
Risk / Trade Management is the name of the Game
  • #276
  • Jun 13, 2016 8:38am Jun 13, 2016 8:38am
Here's my take on the whole Brexit situation, and how I project it to affect the market:

(This is just my own personal opinion & in no way a trade recommendation. Unlike my trade setup calls, this opinion is not based on statistics or probabilities, it's just merely my projection on what I believe is the scenario that will play out in the next few days)

Pre-Brexit Vote:
The pressure will continue on GBP.
GU will slide lower to test the low of 1.38xx lows.
The two main contributors will be: 1- More Polls showing that people are supporting a Brexit ; 2- The margin hikes on GBP pairs
Given the above, I also expect EURUSD to face pressure & re-test 1.1140 during that period
I expect the GU down-move to be sharper than the EU, which would allow EURGBP to revisit & exceed 0.8 again

Post-Brexit Vote:
The people will vote to stay in the EU
Both the EUR & GBP will rally
EURUSD goes back above 1.16

Let's see how things will play out.
Personally, I won't be touching any GBP related pair before the end of the month
  • #277
  • Jun 13, 2016 9:31am Jun 13, 2016 9:31am
Quoting FX-Jay
Here's my take on the whole Brexit situation, and how I project it to affect the market: (This is just my own personal opinion & in no way a trade recommendation. Unlike my trade setup calls, this opinion is not based on statistics or probabilities, it's just merely my projection on what I believe is the scenario that will play out in the next few days) Pre-Brexit Vote: The pressure will continue on GBP. GU will slide lower to test the low of 1.38xx lows. The two main contributors will be: 1- More Polls showing that people are supporting a Brexit...
Hi Jay

if you can teach us how do you calculate these values ? Pls show us more pictures.

Best Regards.
  • #278
  • Jun 13, 2016 9:42am Jun 13, 2016 9:42am
Thanks for your insight Jay, it's always a pleasure to read it. Good luck.
  • #279
  • Edited 3:19am Jun 24, 2016 3:06am | Edited 3:19am
Quoting FX-Jay
Here's my take on the whole Brexit situation, and how I project it to affect the market: (This is just my own personal opinion & in no way a trade recommendation. Unlike my trade setup calls, this opinion is not based on statistics or probabilities, it's just merely my projection on what I believe is the scenario that will play out in the next few days) Pre-Brexit Vote: The pressure will continue on GBP. GU will slide lower to test the low of 1.38xx lows. The two main contributors will be: 1- More Polls showing that people are supporting a Brexit...
Let's do a quick recap & see what we have there:

*The pressure will continue on GBP: Check
*GU will slide lower to test the low of 1.38xx lows: Check
*EURUSD to face pressure & re-test 1.1140: Check
*EURGBP to revisit & exceed 0.8 again: Check

*EURUSD goes back above 1.16: hmmmm ... not checked ... yet! but it will be


The scenario I had in my head played perfectly (price action wise), but not exactly according to the projected 'actions'.
I expected that the polls & margin hikes will cause the GU+EU weakness (&EURGBP strength) , but in reality it was the actual votes/results that ended up weakening them. I also expected a 'remain' vote to push the EUR back higher, but since we obviously got a 'leave' vote, then I'll be waiting to see what will be the catalyst to push the EUR higher.. all the way up to the 1.16-1.17 in the not so far feature.
  • #280
  • Jun 24, 2016 3:16am Jun 24, 2016 3:16am
I was abstaining from giving any trade recommendations before the Brexit vote was over in order to to encourage anyone to enter the market during an extremely volatile & uncertain period. Now that the Brexit speculation is over, I'll give out some medium term high probability trades that I have:

* AUDCAD below 0.9350
* AUDCHF below 0.7000
* USDCHF below 0.9500

& of course the long awaited 1.1635 on EURUSD
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