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Just Another A/U Thread...

  • #781
  • May 24, 2016 9:13pm May 24, 2016 9:13pm
Quoting PA is King
{quote} Glad to hear you made it out ok and doing well. If you were still in them I was going to say that my 4hr chart shows signs of a possible retrace setting up(as long as we don't get a lower low in the next couple of days). Resistance areas I'm seeing are .7300-7330, .7400-7450, and possibly .7500-7550 if it happened to make it that high in the next few weeks. That's more of a longer term analysis. But I guess you don't need that now. Cheers!
I am watching with interest at the moment , day chart says it nearly ready for bounce PA
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
  • #782
  • May 24, 2016 9:46pm May 24, 2016 9:46pm
Quoting PA is King
{quote} Glad to hear you made it out ok and doing well. If you were still in them I was going to say that my 4hr chart shows signs of a possible retrace setting up(as long as we don't get a lower low in the next couple of days). Resistance areas I'm seeing are .7300-7330, .7400-7450, and possibly .7500-7550 if it happened to make it that high in the next few weeks. That's more of a longer term analysis. But I guess you don't need that now. Cheers!
Hi PA. I'm interested can you show what you see setting up in your 4H chart? All I see is lower lows and lower highs. Last big candle was a red 6 candles back. Current candle looking slightly bullish, but nothing to get excited about. I'm sitting on a small short with TP .711. Cheers
  • #783
  • May 24, 2016 10:13pm May 24, 2016 10:13pm
Quoting Blackopal
{quote} Hi PA. I'm interested can you show what you see setting up in your 4H chart? All I see is lower lows and lower highs. Last big candle was a red 6 candles back. Current candle looking slightly bullish, but nothing to get excited about. I'm sitting on a small short with TP .711. Cheers
I agree re 4hr so looked at 1hr - is at least higher high and higher low there. Couple that with daily rsi having shown oversold when price went to 7145 and support on daily around 71c area from March 2016 and I expect some bullish movement sooner or later.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #784
  • May 24, 2016 10:36pm May 24, 2016 10:36pm
The price jumped up as I wrote previous comment. Just added a short at .7208 to my previous from .7224
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 47 KB
  • #785
  • May 25, 2016 1:04am May 25, 2016 1:04am
nice little fall aus200
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
  • #786
  • May 25, 2016 8:19am May 25, 2016 8:19am
Quoting Blackopal
{quote} Hi PA. I'm interested can you show what you see setting up in your 4H chart? All I see is lower lows and lower highs. Last big candle was a red 6 candles back. Current candle looking slightly bullish, but nothing to get excited about. I'm sitting on a small short with TP .711. Cheers
Hi Blackopal, I've attached a chart per your request. It's a simple price action view point. Hope it makes sense.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDproH4 012.png Size: 142 KB
  • #787
  • May 25, 2016 10:26am May 25, 2016 10:26am
A/U needs to get above .7250 for the above chart to have a chance of working out.
  • #788
  • May 25, 2016 6:17pm May 25, 2016 6:17pm
Thanks PA!
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #789
  • May 25, 2016 6:43pm May 25, 2016 6:43pm
Quoting PA is King
{quote} Hi Blackopal, I've attached a chart per your request. It's a simple price action view point. Hope it makes sense. {image}

Thanks PA you have spotted a possible set up I hadn't noticed. Of course, even lower highs often go above previous lower lows, as obviously evidenced in the zig zag patterns down trending charts show. So although the morning star followed by a high exceeding last weeks low presents a possible reversal scenario, we still need a Higher high and higher low to reverse, and I agree completely that .725-.726 is a key level we need to close above. Still looks very weak to me. I have another short pending .7216. Thanks for the alert, glad to see you back here.
  • #790
  • May 25, 2016 7:12pm May 25, 2016 7:12pm
Quoting dab
Thanks PA!
Quoting Blackopal
{quote} Thanks PA you have spotted a possible set up I hadn't noticed. Of course, even lower highs often go above previous lower lows, as obviously evidenced in the zig zag patterns down trending charts show. So although the morning star followed by a high exceeding last weeks low presents a possible reversal scenario, we still need a Higher high and higher low to reverse, and I agree completely that .725-.726 is a key level we need to close above. Still looks very weak to me. I have another short pending .7216. Thanks for the alert, glad to see...
No problem guys...trading is all about probabilities and occasional luck. As mentioned above...it's a "possible" setup for a long. Just have to make sure there isn't a lower low and price can get above .7250.

Happy Trading!
  • #791
  • Edited 8:30am May 26, 2016 5:03am | Edited 8:30am
Just a long-term trend count on AU; I see the 2 should be above 0 but I thing think 2 is just a market making overshoot.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20160526 AUDUSD 1d longT trend wave count.png Size: 44 KB
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  • #792
  • May 26, 2016 8:00am May 26, 2016 8:00am
Quoting inRoozaan
Just a long-term trend count on AU; I see the 2 should be above 0 but I thing 2 is just a market making overshoot. {image}
Nice chart...I like the simplicity of just price action! We are getting closer to breaking through .7250.
  • #793
  • May 27, 2016 1:28pm May 27, 2016 1:28pm
Well, price came close but never could break through .7250. We'll see what sets up next week. Have a safe and happy holiday weekend everyone!

Cheers!
  • #794
  • May 30, 2016 11:03am May 30, 2016 11:03am
I see this is weird trend-count but we should ask big players why AU is not behaving the trend! Just a view.

Possible correction would be a new trend, not part of this trend.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20160530 AUDUSD 4h tr.png Size: 36 KB
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  • #795
  • May 30, 2016 8:43pm May 30, 2016 8:43pm
Quoting inRoozaan
I see this is weird trend-count but we should ask big players why AU is not behaving the trend! Just a view. Possible correction would be a new trend, not part of this trend. {image}
As mentioned last week, we haven't gotten the Lower Low on the 4hr chart so far. I'm still leaning towards a retrace higher. While my anticipated move didn't happen last week, it now appears as though we have a double bottom around .7150. Still want to see a close above the .7250 area for confirmation.

Cheers!
  • #796
  • May 31, 2016 9:22pm May 31, 2016 9:22pm
Price Action is King again.
  • #797
  • Jun 1, 2016 7:47am Jun 1, 2016 7:47am
Quoting PA is King
Price Action is King again.
Seems you had the close above .7250 and you are long now? but no daily PA yet?!
...
  • #798
  • Jun 1, 2016 8:04am Jun 1, 2016 8:04am
Quoting inRoozaan
{quote} Seems you had the close above .7250 and you are long now? but no daily PA yet?!
I was long before .7250. If you don't mind the risk, long after the double bottom around .7150 was a good entry. If you're more conservative with entries then waiting for .7250 was an option. Every trader is different...trade what you're comfortable with. The overall objective of my thread is to have you trading in the right direction for the highest probability of a winning trade. Entry, exit, stop losses, and durations are up to you.

Cheers!
  • #799
  • Jun 1, 2016 8:06am Jun 1, 2016 8:06am
Usd is falling against everything but the Aud.. some price action that should tell you something.
  • #800
  • Edited 9:14am Jun 1, 2016 9:00am | Edited 9:14am
Quoting redalert
Usd is falling against everything but the Aud.. some price action that should tell you something.
I believe some news/patterns are as much as 6 month old and are still effective in currency price. like GDP trend not the individual GDP. Do you believe AU is still in up-trend from Sep 15?! ( Jan16 low was just overshoot IMO). Today AU GDP was positive and will push it upward soon - IMO.
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