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More simple is impossible

  • #7,181
  • May 24, 2016 4:11am May 24, 2016 4:11am
I really want to insist on the fact that there is more to it of course, and only screentime can help understand it, and not even completely. You will find plenty of examples where this does not work, for instance, what if we are in an expanding triangle? then chances are high that you ll get trapped. then you need to realise it quickly and cut your losses short. and many other instances where price structure will eventually prove you wrong. it's just a slightly bettter edge when practiced enough.
Hidden in plain sight.
  • #7,182
  • May 24, 2016 4:19am May 24, 2016 4:19am
Quoting Stelah
{quote} thanks, i get it now. was just abou to post this one, when i saw your post. did not trade it, my internet was down for the past 15 minutes :X price broke down, then retest of the marked level there and push down again. what i was talking about earlier with trade the levels inside the buy zone (sell zone in this case) also, sorry for the ignorant question: who is lance? where can i find his work? (please dont hurt me ) {image}
on your chart, do you see the possible scalp down then the last higher high source was taken out ? you then got a small retrace and a small renko brick turn can get you in the trade.

look for lance beggs on google. wont post the address as i dont like to advertise anything here.
Hidden in plain sight.
  • #7,183
  • May 24, 2016 4:19am May 24, 2016 4:19am
Stelah - try the paperclip and all may be revealed.
  • #7,184
  • May 24, 2016 4:20am May 24, 2016 4:20am
GER30 +15+16 - I was "sure" it was gonna rollover, and now a divergence back into trend has formed...I was wrong, but at least I have 31 pips to show for it.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GER30 +15 +16.png Size: 130 KB
  • #7,185
  • May 24, 2016 4:22am May 24, 2016 4:22am
Quoting jakucha
{quote} on your chart, do you see the possible scalp down then the last higher high source was taken out ? you then got a small retrace and a small renko brick turn can get you in the trade. look for lance beggs on google. wont post the address as i dont like to advertise anything here.
that short is what i was referring to in my post, short from the red line 9910 on the restest from below after the source of the last HH was taken. thanks very much for the help.

also, meanwhile cable went to the moon. what a day
  • #7,186
  • May 24, 2016 4:38am May 24, 2016 4:38am
GER 30 - here is that trade i took earlier and held. Also after my short theory has failed, taking +15+16, i presumed a 123 formed for a move down. Sto on 10 pip chart supported it. One trade went to BE, other I closed manually once i realized a div has formed on the 5. So, 3 trades, +2 with DD, +2,-6.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Bad trades.png Size: 147 KB
  • #7,187
  • May 24, 2016 4:39am May 24, 2016 4:39am
let me try and add some "real", hard facts value.
about 2 years ago i did a bit of coding and tested almost exactly what your are referrring to jakucha, these sharp reversals (among other things). i identified 10 basic chart structures, derived from 2 swing highs and 2 swing lows each. these are the basic of ALL possible swings and can model every possible market structure. i did the statistics on h4 and daily data for 21 pairs for about 15 years of data each. since the markets are fractal these stats should be at least similar on the smaller timeframes.
i did not actively trade these statistics in the past (i tried for a while but i did not have enough experience) because they were "not enough" for me. just like jakucha pointed out, it is not 100% (nothing is). it needs to be seen in context and back then i couldnt do it. anyway, let me back up your observation with some facts jakucha, see attached.

there is actually only a 24% chance for a sharp reversal down after a sharp reversal up, same goes for the other way around. this does not mean, however, that we will always move higher. we could form a low inside the buy zone for example, and then a high inside the buyzone too, and then ultimately go down. this is not captured by these statistics. BUT, it shows that after a sharp reversal there will be an opportunity to at least take some small profit/ lock in to break even, before we go lower (if we do at all) with 76% likelihood, either inside the buy zone or above the buy zone (when the move went sharply "far away" from it without enough pullback)

p.s.: if anyone has an idea of a good structure that i could check (the one attached is just a basic one, it can have a lot more swings), just paint a picture of the structure, i'll translate it to code and let you know what the probabilities are for price to continue/reverse. i can do that quite fast without much trouble as long as your picture is clear.
Attached Image
  • #7,188
  • May 24, 2016 4:47am May 24, 2016 4:47am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd-m2-global-capital-markets.png Size: 29 KB


Hey Guys had to delete my MT4 due to virus infection, downloaded a new one and I only have data from 10May on my 1min chart is there a way to increase the data? as this amount of data is too little
  • #7,189
  • May 24, 2016 4:55am May 24, 2016 4:55am
Stelah - Lance Beggs stuff may be of interest to you then given the work you've already done.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Lance Beggs Reversal.pdf   1.0 MB | 1,063 downloads
  • #7,190
  • May 24, 2016 5:11am May 24, 2016 5:11am
Quoting BugattiBoy
{image} Hey Guys had to delete my MT4 due to virus infection, downloaded a new one and I only have data from 10May on my 1min chart is there a way to increase the data? as this amount of data is too little
Click on Tools on your MT4 platform and select options and Charts tab then increase the number of bars in history and maximum vars on chart as required
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: RENKO 153.png Size: 68 KB
Let it turn and find your entry.
  • #7,191
  • May 24, 2016 5:19am May 24, 2016 5:19am
Couldn't trade yesterday, squandered away today's chances by not holding to my original TP which was Yesterday's high and not buying the dips, will take a break till after NYO.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: RENKO 150.png Size: 64 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: RENKO 151.png Size: 67 KB
Let it turn and find your entry.
  • #7,192
  • Edited 6:18am May 24, 2016 5:55am | Edited 6:18am
GER 30 +2+2+2+2+19 - I was confused as to why my short attempts were not working out, so I decided to re-evaluate my theory by taking a look at the bigger picture on 20 pip chart. It revealed why and what to look for. I only took 19 pips here, and made a rather late entry.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Ger30 +2+2+2+2+19.png Size: 144 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Ger30 +2+2+2+2+19 bigger view.png Size: 124 KB
  • #7,193
  • Edited 6:36am May 24, 2016 6:23am | Edited 6:36am
Market Structure is one of the simplest way to analyze the market IMO. Renko makes it even easier. The question remains though, as it is not a black and white matter, which lows and highs should be taken into consideration? I have marked the way I would have analyzed the swings. If you ask me, market structure should be the first you learn before trying to draw divergences and stuff.

Good material guys, keep the postings coming!

Btw, Jakucha, what is the indicator you use for the colored Renkos?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Invincibility lies in the defence; the possibility of victory in the attack
  • #7,194
  • May 24, 2016 6:38am May 24, 2016 6:38am
Quoting BBalazs
Market Structure is one of the simplest way to analyze the market IMO. Renko makes it even easier. The question remains though, as it is not a black and white matter, which lows and highs should be taken into consideration? I have marked the way I would have analyzed the swings. If you ask me, market structure should be the first you learn before trying to draw divergences and stuff. Good material guys, keep the postings coming! Btw, Jakucha, what is the indicator you use for the colored Renkos? {image}
the way i see it

and the indy is macd candles v3 but not a big fan to be honest, just playing around
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Click to Enlarge Name: 06ee997147430f0ad16553c5238d74fa.jpg Size: 758 KB
Hidden in plain sight.
  • #7,195
  • May 24, 2016 7:57am May 24, 2016 7:57am
Missed the wedge break as i went for lunch and ice cream. But still, in trend, gauging momentum is key in my humble opinion. On that 123, i sold myself short(pun intended) for 127 extension, considering 1 contract. Looks like i need to master this as well.
Best, Josh
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Ger30 wedge.png Size: 133 KB
  • #7,196
  • May 24, 2016 9:13am May 24, 2016 9:13am
Quoting jakucha
{quote} the way i see it and the indy is macd candles v3 but not a big fan to be honest, just playing around {image}
Hi Jakucha,
Please can you explain a bit more why you have marked the levels you have as "OK" or "minor". Are they minor because the source of the supply/demand is not broken?
Thanks
  • #7,197
  • May 24, 2016 11:35am May 24, 2016 11:35am
Quoting Nelson35a
{quote} Hi Jakucha, Please can you explain a bit more why you have marked the levels you have as "OK" or "minor". Are they minor because the source of the supply/demand is not broken? Thanks
The OK levels are demand levels that broke previous higher high, as you can see that didnt happen with other levels.
Hidden in plain sight.
  • #7,198
  • May 24, 2016 11:49am May 24, 2016 11:49am
Quoting jakucha
{quote} The OK levels are demand levels that broke previous higher high, as you can see that didnt happen with other levels.
OK got it. Thanks Jakucha
  • #7,199
  • May 25, 2016 2:20am May 25, 2016 2:20am
Great approaches guys,
I also like the “keep it simple” strategies.
In order to make it clearer for everyone monitoring this topic could someone post a complete statistic of his trading with this approach?
How long is the strategy traded? how many trades done in total? Max Drowdown? Performance? Risk per trade? Hit rate? etc..
We all know that trading is a marathon not a sprint.

Sorry if I have missed it in the previous comments
  • #7,200
  • May 25, 2016 11:23am May 25, 2016 11:23am
I am taking a wild guess nobody is posting today because maybe you all did the same thing as me. I went looking for a reversal in a super bullish market, got 8 BE and 3 SL !!! At that time I realized it is time to quit and pack it up. Also that i was playing it stupid. Rather funny actually, good thing that this is a demo account.
Anyway, thats how my day went. It is a heck of a bullish move, like somebody light a fire under it.
Best, Josh
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