The Club!

i'm not expecting usd to reverse soon (on daily),
US guys seem to be bullish on usd .. spotted alot of buying today,
if so EU might be bearish ... current range 1.1100 - 1.1260

EU Daily,

Yes, It look bery bearish at E/U. I was not expecting so dovish FED...

a small Long at 0.7217...try near 0.74 lets see .

AU


Update for Weekly chart..

USDx

M15 chart,

USD

Interesting moment ahead ... GL.

Daily chart,

Where are u ... any words for sentiments ?

For us to keep it saved

Futures Trading Based on Market Profile Day Timeframe Structures
By JAN FIRICH

Best
D.P.

http://jyzlt.com/MetaTrader/index-2123.htm

What does this indy do?
How does it work?

Best
D.P.

MZvega posted this at the thread of Auction Market Value Theory & Analytics
I have decided to repost this valuable stuff here in order for us to keep it in mind.


Strategies, Models and Auction Market Trading
cont'd.........

In the Beginning...
Beginners in most professional fields start with a course of instruction. Following the instruction/introduction phase, there is an apprenticeship. A successful apprenticeship leads to "journeyman" status, where the individual becomes a member of the professional community, making a living from his/her efforts. Some few rise higher, becoming masters; teachers, innovators, gurus.

The standards developed by most professions do not exist for traders. There are no auction market schools. There are no organized apprenticeship programs for auction market traders. The beginner, convinced of the potential benefits of trading, is on his own. He/she reads magazines, books and gets ideas from the internet and other traders. Inevitably the search for understanding leads to a "perceived" need for a "model". There are many models in books, magazines and explained in weekend seminars. Such models address the 'Market Strategy' part of the trading equation and at best provide only a partial answer. Most (all?) of the 'sure fire' models do not work. Unfortunately, the beginner does not realize that "a model that works" is worth it's weight in gold and no one would sell such a valuable commodity.

Technical Analysis: A Bum Steer
The path of least resistance for the beginner is technical analysis. It is offered and discussed widely. Methods for calculating market 'indicators' are prevalent. At best, technical analysis deals only with first part of the 'trading equation', i.e., with the Market Strategy, leading to a "model". Widely used, to little apparent avail, technical analysis plays a prominent role for many in getting started in trading. Learning to calculate a moving average or oscillator is hardly the answer when one does not understand the market.

What Path to Take?
Lacking formal educational facilities, the career path for traders, is not well defined. It is certainly clear that one must understand markets well enough to divine the Market Strategy for that market at that point in time. It is equally clear that one must define one's own strategy, which operates within what the market offers. Only then can a reasonable trading plan be developed. How can one find the market's strategy? And then one's own strategy? And then a plan. One set of steps follow.

Learning to Trade
The Steps:
1) Learn market structure. Learn the foundation principles of markets.

2) Learn to 'read' markets; which ones offer opportunity and at what risk. Application of market principles leads to Market Strategy.

3) Define one's strategy: time frame?, activity level?, maximum risk? reward? This knowledge provides Trader Strategy.

4) Synthesize Market Strategy and Trader Strategy into a Working Strategy. The Working Strategy is the trader's plan of attack.

5) Find the market details, the current 'reference points'. Integrating the current reference points into one's Working Strategy becomes one's trading plan. The strategy now has numbers, a guide to action.

Step 1. Market Principles: Auction Market Theory
Auction market principles are found in Auction Market Theory. An abbreviated version of the theory is published in Stocks & Commodities, June/July 2002. A more complete version is on the CISCO website, under "Whats New". Theory provides the framework for analysis--those principles to follow. Theory shows the trader what to look for in a market. Once the market is defined, theory positions one to find a market based strategy. Theory guides the trader in dissecting the market. As a result, a trader gains an understanding of opportunity offered by the market and the risk inherent in that market at that point (say the end of a market day). These variables change with time, often within 24 hours or less.

Step 2. Market Strategy: Applying Auction Market Principles
Market Strategy comes from a market's current condition. For example, if a market is in balance, the upper and lower breakout prices are known. The balance range is known. Price exceeding the upper or lower limit is a 'breakout', an alert for the beginning of a trend. Also known are the balance 'value area' and 'point of control'. Breakouts from balance give an'opportunity' measure which permits a cataloging of that market's potential for trading. The balance range can be translated into a risk measure. Trading points are developed from limits and value areas. Overall trading potential comes from the opportunity /risk ratio (reward-to-risk ratio). Markets can be compared by their reward-to -risk ratios. Those with a currently too low reward-to-risk ratio would not be traded.

If the market condition is not balanced, less is specified by the market parameters. It is generally more risky to trade. If a clear trend is in place the day trader knows to go with the trend. The long term trader who did not get in near the breakout has missed the lower risk trade. Playing 'catch up' is a much higher risk strategy.

Regardless of outlook, the auction market trader has information that illuminates the market, aiding in action decisions. Still, the trader must keep in mind that there are only two goals: get into a trend early, exit when the trend begins congesting.

The market will tell you it's condition, volume path, volatility path, commercial behavior, congestion, member's intentions, tradeability, etc.

Market information sets a strategy unique to this market at this time:
A balanced market will breakout at some point in time.
A trending market will always come into congestion. ("come into congestion" is not used "interchangeably" to mean the same thing as "reversion to the "mean")
The market may be distributing (moving) or congesting--Auction market analysis tells which.
Members intentions (commercial capping) are on the Visual Graphic.
Tradeability overall comes from Advice Engine studies.
Ditto for reward to risk ratios.

Step 3. Trader Strategy: Investment, Risk Aversion, Timeframe
Trader Strategy reflects the needs of the trader. It must fit within the guidelines set by the Market Strategy. If the market is in balance, one path is followed, if not, another. If the overall reward-to-risk ratio is poor, the market is rejected. Exactly how trades are made depends on the trader's outlook--day trader, long time-frame trader or anything in between. Included are the trader's risk preferences, market preferences, times to trade and any other variable unique to the individual.

Some Restrictions on Trader Strategy
Size of account limits futures traded and time held.
Number of contracts in the entry trade are limited.
Extreme volatility equates to large risk: do you want this?
Holding overnight carries longer term risk: do you want this?
Active day trading requires constant attention: do you want this?
Information on Market Strategy is factored in.

Step 4. The Working Strategy
With Market Strategy and Trader Strategy determined, a Working Strategy comes from synthesizing the two. Worked out are risk parameters and limits, state of the market, timing of trades, exit strategy, etc.This is your contingency plan for a varied set of possibilities.

Step 5. Trading Your Plan: Reference Points
A trader builds trading decisions within the conditions set by the market and his/her Trader Strategy. It is a 'model' in the sense that the trader has a plan of action, but not the sort of exact model a beginner has in mind.

The trader takes what the market offers (Market Strategy) and works within that framework. The basic trading plan is simplicity personified: "get on a trend early and exit when it is over". Execution of the basic plan, using the information in the Working Strategy, is the trading model.

Strategies, Models and Auction Market Trading
Donald L. Jones May 11, 2002

What do you guys think about that?

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/alasta...b_9991162.html

Yes, there is such an opinion to be being discussed.
But I am sure that Mr.President will do everything to avoid the global bad scenario.
Problem, however, is that "our partners" reject all our efforts to bring piece, doing the world things together - for example, Syria.
Now they are trying to bring distraction to Kazakhstan - another country at the borders of Russia.

Best
D.P.

P.S. But the proxy war will be continued though.

Digging this 1-2, i-ii count for oil ... what does everyone think?

way too slow the day across the board and I dont like it. Something is boiling and I could be wrong obviously but I smell that USD Index will give up its gains. It has failed to penetrate 95.50 and I think eventually it will break down, which means oil, gold, silver etc up. The only puzzling this is EU.

Still busy like hell


Sentiment:

GU 22% bulls
EU 43% bulls
DXY 51% bulls
USDCHF 81% bulls
USDMXN 87% bulls

Crude 82% bulls
Gold 46% bulls


and the winner is:

Soybean Meal with a stunning 96% bulls

Thank you my friend, hang in there.

What's up with USDRUB sentiment?

judging from USDMXN sentiment will be bullish which means we are ready for a drop

But something doesnt add up...DXY only 51% bulls but all Dollar pairs are bullish massively for USD...

on the Sentiment Index I see most currencies in the middle of nowhere

regarding the USDRUB I have no sentiment data (but would like to have )

One helpful source for you is http://moex.com/en/

Derivatives - Future and option contracts data (in Russian): http://moex.com/ru/derivatives/contracts.aspx?p=act

Sentiments are not published here.

Best
D.P.

P.S. USD/RUB (the upper/left picture) and BRENT (the lower/right pucture) FUTURES

Strange EU is hanging around 30-40 points since FOMC night. More than three days, after FOMC, and is in a 30-40 points range. . Looking at DXY, the clear support to break is 95,14.