My trade journal

Purpose of this thread is to keep myself focus on my trading approach and prevent myself from deviating which is one of the major mistake that i hate to admit that i have been doing so often.

I will be posting my analysis on the weekend to get a overall view on what i want to do on that week, and shall see if this journal will improve on my trading skills.

Lets begin!

GBPUSD



Interesting setup after the brexit poll result, possibly going back to the initial poll level. People might have realized that the poll result is rather questionable and inconsistent (Different phone and online result) .
Furthermore FOMC meetings suggest that June's rate hike is not off the table.

Personally i am feeling bearish on this pair to revisit the 1.4100 level should it break the middle zone.

GBPJPY



Setup looks in line with the GBPUSD breakout of the consolidation with MACD cross over with reasonable target at 158.80

EURUSD



Another pair to lookout for, having a nice bearish divergence on the dailys. Will be looking to short this baby to the middle zone and even further down to the 1.0580 level should it break the middle zone. (Hopes euro news next week brings it down.)

EURJPY



Coming to an end of the descending triangle completion with limited upside move with the trend line in place. Looking good to short too.

AGREED

AGREED !

GBP/USD



Bounces off back to the resistance level. Still has not broken the resistance.
Yellen has given some hawkish comment during her radcliffe speech. USD should be strengthening in the upcoming months.
Sentiments unchanged, still bearish.
Looking to short this next week. Target area ~1.4500, will be monitoring closing when price reaches 1.4520 to see if there are any strong rejection. Otherwise, should not be a problem.

GBP/JPY



Similarly, this pair bounces off back to the resistance level. H4 showing divergence. Bearish candle spotted however not trending nicely (Could be due to weaker yen). Will not trade this until clearer picture. Strong rejection at 160.15.

EUR/USD



Approaching target, might be seeing some rebound near 1.1070.
Sentiments unchanged, bearish.

EUR/JPY



Retest of support might be coming soon. Most likely will have a clear picture by end of next week with the ECB conference.

AUD/USD



Reversal?

I like this setup, divergence with fading momentum. Will be interested to trade with stop-loss below support. Will be looking for signs for entry in shorter time-frames.
Will definitely go long if price reaches 0.7150 again providing reasonable stop should it go south since RBA unlikely to cut rates 2 month in a row.

Momentum shift of USD with May NFP data showing very weak jobs increment. Unlikely a rate hike in June, Yellen will probably wait for June's data to reassess the condition with greater certainty since wage & unemployment rate are not significantly deviated.

GBP/USD



Ideal scenario will be for GBP/USD to revisit 1.4600 handle before going in for a short position with Brexit in mind.

GBP/JPY



Yen strengthening pushes this pair into major resistance zone. Though if Yen continues to rally(No intervention by BOJ) and GBP continues to show weakness(Brexit), we could easily see this pair break this year's low and heads to 149.00 this month.

Correlation between this 2 pair 'breaks' on friday.

USD/JPY



On it's way to test this year's low. Break below 105.50 will see it's way down to 101.50

This is definitely a call for BOJ to step in and employ further easing.

NZD/USD



NZD bullish retracement?

Kiwi gained over 400pips in the past 2 weeks, extending it towards this year's high.

This week's target for retracement @0.6950.

Might experience some rejection due to the double top.

*NZD quarterly GDP on thursday.

USD/JPY



Sentiment bearish

Most likely ranging between the area till thursday depending on what BOJ does.

Yet to test the low.

*FED RATE DECISION ON THURSDAY (USD rate priced in since NFP)
*BOJ CONFERENCE (Should be doing something this time round............)

USD/CAD



Despite good CAD employment data on friday, this pair still continues to rally upwards.

Good sign to long although not very nice R:R if unable to break 1.2830.

Will go for it still.

Stormy week ahead. Many will become rich, and many more will go bust.

GBP/USD



Market will be insane should brexit happens, might even be similar to the Swiss Franc Tsunami.

Brexit will invoke a significant larger move than Bremain.

Target of brexit will be at 1.3500 and further down to 1.2720 (Fib expansion level)

(To be continued tmr)

All the market this week are driven by Brexit. No point identifying trades with trade signals since a sudden shift in momentum will occur when there is a change in sentiments. No clear break of the swing highs nor lows means that there is still no clear indication of the outcome (Although price are currently at the top now, Market leaning towards Bremain despite uncertainty)

A swing high so that it can drop lower? 1.4770 definitely a good price for people that are betting on Brexit with SL @1.4950 and do not want to pay for the spike in spread on the 23rd.

My thought is that it will swing back to the average before the referendum and close the gap.

Bremain still remains hopeful looking at the chart. 1.4950 not taken out yet though.

Many of the charts have great signals to trade. Too bad it's Brexit week, which moves all the USD major market.

AUD/NZD tight range render it good for scalping in this risky times.

GBP/USD



First Brexit target @1.35 reached.

It is actually quite nice to trade, as the poll result comes in bit by bit, allowing the market to factor in the price over a period of time.

Market cooling down for abit. The next relative strong sell level can be seen at 1.4120

Don't know if it would retrace that far or simply open for a strong rally down again next week.
(Ideally going back to 1.4120)

Will be targeting Second Brexit target @1.2720.

AUD/USD



Waiting for retracement to enter (Preferably ~0.7500) .
Target at @0.7405, could go lower though.

NZD/USD



Similarly, waiting for retracement to enter (Preferably ~0.7210).
Target @0.7080

However to note that NZD is relatively strong, regain almost all of the BREXIT drop already. and AUD only regain around 75ish%?

AUD/NZD



I am Bearish on AUD/NZD, Classical descending triangle. Ideal entry somewhere along the trendline.
3 target @1.0356, 1.0306, 1.026

Things to look out for would be the NZD Pairs. Gaining huge momentum in this drastic market condition.

Therefore overbought and i am looking to sell NZD.

NZD/USD (Weekly)



Strong move towards weekly resistance. Waiting for at least 0.74 ~0.75 before looking for a short entry.

***NZD/CAD (Weekly)



Weekly head and shoulder near neckline. Will it break?
First key level @0.9570 or any key signs of rejection i will be selling this.
Break above of the neckline will deem all my bearish NZD opinion invalid.

NZD/JPY (Daily)



Triangle Broke and went back into the range. Nothing much to be done until a break below 73.00.

"Stress test" from a few fake Japan news this week create much volatility in all the market.

*Japanese yen remains a Key factor in moving the markets.

AUD/USD (Daily)



Daily channel looking good with pin bar.

Looking for short.

First target @0.7350 and further down to 0.7245

NZD/USD (Daily)



Daily channel opening wider. Long above 0.7110

Currently @0.7000 support level. Downside risk remains due to RBNZ "likelyhood to cut rate" which i remain highly skeptical so it requires patient.

AUD/NZD (Daily)



Keeping it simple, Down.

USD/JPY (Daily)



Approaches daily technical level ahead of FOMC rate hike.

USD/JPY (H4)



Anything above 112.00 will most likely be rejected for now.
H4 Bollinger squeeze.
Lesser buyer and more sellers coming in.

Recent market top @111.35
Trade Idea: Stop above 112.00, target 109.05:

~R:R around 1:2 which is pretty decent