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High probability live trades

  • #421
  • May 20, 2016 2:10pm May 20, 2016 2:10pm
GU and GJ a substantial move into the closing, somewhat surprised to see that. Overall the close will be very bearish on both units.
  • #422
  • May 20, 2016 2:17pm May 20, 2016 2:17pm
Quoting asgcorp
ok having reviewed GBP JPY H1 chart it's obvious that we are stuck in range bound formation, trading a break out now makes more sense. I'm somewhat favoring upside breakout scenario at the moment however I'd be looking to put in pending trades both ways. Targets are on the chart. I don't really like trading break out, but this time this makes sense. Stop loss @ 60 points. {image}
sometimes trading breakouts makes sense. )))
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  • #423
  • May 20, 2016 2:32pm May 20, 2016 2:32pm
Quoting asgcorp
{quote} sometimes trading breakouts makes sense. ))) {image}
asgcorp. I have always respected your posts, and I must say this one excites me. I have my TP at 159.536, which, on my chart is R78 pivot, but I MUCH prefer yours!
  • #424
  • May 20, 2016 3:06pm May 20, 2016 3:06pm
Quoting asgcorp
well looking @ H4 GU now it's pretty ugly, so I ain't taking any trades atm for sure. I entered short previously but didn't like the pa and got out. better luck next time. {image}
Yeah, 1H candle has close below the fib 50 for last main leg, and below round number 1.45. Took my 11 pips SL . Was smarter not to take it as you did .
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #425
  • May 20, 2016 3:11pm May 20, 2016 3:11pm
not really smarter it's just that I spotted the flip side, previously was bullish also on GU. However that's the name of the game you have to risk and enter the markets, there no point just sitting on the sidelines since then you won't be making any money. So yeah get in get out fast cut your losses fast and hopefully let your winners run for some time. That's the way to get it done.
  • #426
  • May 20, 2016 3:14pm May 20, 2016 3:14pm
pretty much GU turned bearish when this formation was broken out and mini H&S neckline triggered on H4.

Sell high / buy low, but you can't get all the entries right all the time.
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  • #427
  • May 20, 2016 3:16pm May 20, 2016 3:16pm
more important for next week if we crack below 4475 there is huge downside exposure in GU. I don't think that it will crack straight away but give or take +40-60 points and then this should crack.
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  • #428
  • May 20, 2016 3:20pm May 20, 2016 3:20pm
and GBP JPY the outlook is pretty clear, we got mostly bearish GBP USD and USD JPY topping out and likely trading lower early into next week.
Combines this together we have a pretty solid case for GBP JPY to proceed lower into 156 area next week.

here's UJ daily, fairly certain we've topped out.
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  • #429
  • Edited 3:41pm May 20, 2016 3:27pm | Edited 3:41pm
Quoting asgcorp
not really smarter it's just that I spotted the flip side, previously was bullish also on GU. However that's the name of the game you have to risk and enter the markets, there no point just sitting on the sidelines since then you won't be making any money. So yeah get in get out fast cut your losses fast and hopefully let your winners run for some time. That's the way to get it done.
Completely agree

I had the flip defined in the zone between 4517 and 4500. ( I trade countertrends retracements to for intraday and had a short from 4577 to 4527 today so no worries ) But now as we get an close below I will say we have an flip . I attach chart.

PS. Saw your last posts after I posted this where you also tell bearish .
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Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #430
  • May 20, 2016 4:47pm May 20, 2016 4:47pm
projected GBP JPY price action for next week. I'd expect some form of a pullback from the lows and then continuation lower.
157.25-157.50 reasonable target, best strat is to wait for a weak rally top out near 160.25-160.50 and then enter short for 157.25-157.50.

alternatively if we fail to produce a pullback early into next week, shorting upon a break out of weak level @ 159.25-159.50 will produce a decent entry.

PS: potential low on GBP JPY next week is @ 155-156 area. I'd expect absolute week high @ 160 area.
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  • #431
  • May 20, 2016 4:55pm May 20, 2016 4:55pm
fairly similar expectations for the GBP USD next week. Initially will attempt to pullback from the lows and then selling pressure to resume and take it's toll.
Maybe we can do as high @ 4570 but that's about the limit on the upside and then straight down.

Potential low next week on GBP USD @ 4300-4350. 4350 very likely.
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  • #432
  • May 21, 2016 12:57am May 21, 2016 12:57am
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  • #433
  • May 21, 2016 2:46am May 21, 2016 2:46am
expanding on previous GBP USD analysis for the next week here's my preffered scenario. Price will find some support @ 4500 and initially will trade higher early into next week, however upside is capped @ 4640-4680 area, which is the best area next week to place short trades for 4300 downside target.

This also translates into GBP JPY going up before heading south mid week.
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  • #434
  • May 21, 2016 2:50am May 21, 2016 2:50am
so therefore GBP USD potential trade setup for next week

- GBP USD LONG @ market open SL 4475 TP 4650
- GBP USD SHORT @ 4650-4675 area SL 50 points TP 4325

- if above fails GBP USD short break below 4475 SL 25 points TP 4325
- if we go straight for the 4325 breaking below 4475 early next week - LONG GBP USD @ 4300-4325 SL 50 TP 4650
  • #435
  • May 21, 2016 2:50am May 21, 2016 2:50am
higher probability scenario - initially we go up next week GBP USD
  • #436
  • May 21, 2016 2:55am May 21, 2016 2:55am
supplementary to the above guys. 4500 is strong. it's psych level + 50% fibo + price really respects this level.
so this can be used as a safe entry for targets on upside as per above.
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  • #437
  • May 21, 2016 2:58am May 21, 2016 2:58am
looking @ dollar index daily, I'd say we are up for at least some form of retrace before we go higher. Price exhausted, RSI overbought, overhead supply entered.
This should support the above GBP USD scenario.
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  • #438
  • May 21, 2016 3:00am May 21, 2016 3:00am
Quoting asgcorp
so therefore GBP USD potential trade setup for next week - GBP USD LONG @ market open SL 4475 TP 4650 - GBP USD SHORT @ 4650-4675 area SL 50 points TP 4325 - if above fails GBP USD short break below 4475 SL 25 points TP 4325 - if we go straight for the 4325 breaking below 4475 early next week - LONG GBP USD @ 4300-4325 SL 50 TP 4650
based on all of the above, here's the highest probability trade setups (revised)

GBP USD LONG @ market open SL (revised) 50 points TP 4650
GBP USD SHORT @ 4650-4675 SL 4725 TP 4325
  • #439
  • May 21, 2016 3:03am May 21, 2016 3:03am
proper GBP USD close price Friday is 4510 it's not a bad price actually. it's not 4475.
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  • #440
  • May 21, 2016 3:10am May 21, 2016 3:10am
guys regarding GBP JPY I'd be honest with you I don't know where' it's headed @ early next week. I have 2 solid areas on upside / downside which could be used for higher probability "buy low / sell high" trade. see both scenarios on the chart.

Personally I prefer the scenario where price hits 157 initially, but hey, it's GBP JPY, anything could happen, it could reverse soon, or it could drop like a rock.

Whichever area we hit first will initiate a trade, either short or long.
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