High probability live trades

My expectation is that all GBP pairs "will" go up until this coming Wednesday/Thursday prior to UK-GDP result and then a free fall.

well looking @ H4 GU now it's pretty ugly, so I ain't taking any trades atm for sure.

I entered short previously but didn't like the pa and got out. better luck next time.

As of right now, I have GU turning south now to catch up with the euros and swissys fall. I have yesterdays high as possibly being ii and iii capping off around 1.40ish before a pulback then 1.38-1.36 to finish the 3rd wave maybe??

I also think UJ should be capping off its 1 off the bottom soon so a retrace to 108ish is in the cards before it really starts moving on its 3rd wave. That said GJ might be the strangest trade we see for the next few weeks, although it should correct lower next week based on both UJ and GU going down, it might be caught in a constant back and forth between 2 pairs on a mission. That said GJ will be in the same triangle consolidation its been in for weeks now.

What im targeting next week is a short GJ back towards 156 which is the lower rising trendline of what appears to be a triangle, a very timid short in UJ towards 108 the possible 50 fib area and a short in GU to 1.40 the 1.618 extension. ill post what im seeing shortly

alternative scenario on GBP USD. I think we are getting too preoccupied with the bull case, while the H4 doesn't look set for any bullish price action truth be told.

raiders thank you you are bringing up a very valid point also in there.

potential extreme case on GBP USD to support bear case for at least a week before we turn bullish.

I personally think it's overkill, put highlights potential for more downside in GBP USD.

GBP USD 4425 is month pivot in may we can definately re-test the month pivot at least.

raiders some valid points on GJ still don't forget that UJ this level is acting like a magnet for price. Therefore even though GU could be down big time GJ could be stuck in range due to UJ trading higher. Just a thought.

No doubt about it! this is like the never ending 5th wave in UJ. I havent even bothered trying to short it in days because its like they are draining the life out of it.

Overall though, UJ retraced to the larger 382 on the weekly and rejected nicely. When price got over 110.4 we hit a solid 5 waves up on the hourly. Not only that but it poked its head above a falling trendline with ease. Its gotta pullback at some point. They always do. I chose a 50 fib to make my projections off of and 1.618 is right around 116.2 if that gets hit before making a new low then 130 is doable by november/december. But thats a long way away and even then, it could just be B up around 116-120 and C would be in the gutter by this time next year. Im just looking for the next up and that should come after a slight correction.

Fundamentally, all is the same except that the fed went from talking the dollar down to talking it up to try and make the market believe the meeting is live. Its not. They wont be raising shit in June.
Many possible scenarios as to why they are doing this. Im going to go with wanting to save 1 in the chamber for Kuroda for when they actually do raise them.

so after all that hot air....looking for a correction from this diagonal and then a monster long

looking at weekly GU chart seems like this resistance is taking a toll on GBP USD

GU
big ass bear flag on the daily with perfect 3 wave moves inside. its gotta break at some point so i think shorting down to the bottom of it is easy and if it breaks on this move then the 1.618 is cake

dollar index next logical target is @/around 96.50 now. the bull run ain't over yet that's almost certain now.

most definately nothing's gonna happen already this week. until laters next week I guess. Time to take a break now.

Yup! If you take it out to the daily and bring your lines in you can see it broke out of a diagonal. That being said 96.5 is easy. overall ive got topping out at 105/107 and easily hitting the 105 if it stays above 95

DXY longer-term dollar can use current base as a launch pad and then sky's the limit really. )))

raiders looks like you's gonna get what's yous ordered sooner rather than later. )))

yea man...back to the easiest trades ever. Thats why i was so excited about hitting 95 on the dxy and passing 1.13 on the euro. i think those two levels were huge

I agree with you. 1.13-1.14 party was over for the bulls in EUR USD for sure.

yea man...sucks that im flat though hahahaha but come sunday im gonna be going balls deep on the gbp

exactly. no point getting into this before weekend. I'd setup some levels for Sunday breakout and then trade the direction of the break out.