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The ART of trading by Petar_Serbia

  • #2,081
  • May 18, 2016 7:29am May 18, 2016 7:29am
Hello traders,
I bought USD/CAD and sold EUR/USD. Will post charts later.


Petar
"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #2,082
  • May 18, 2016 8:03am May 18, 2016 8:03am
Here you go
I am posting you charts on EUR/USD and USD/CAD setups. Both setups are simply trend setups with successful tests of clusters.

TP on USD/CAD set at 1.3105
TP on EUR/USD set at 1.1190

Best Regards,
Petar
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDM30.pngtest.png Size: 76 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCADH1.pngtest.png Size: 89 KB
"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #2,083
  • May 18, 2016 9:04am May 18, 2016 9:04am
Quoting Petar_Serbia
Here you go I am posting you charts on EUR/USD and USD/CAD setups. Both setups are simply trend setups with successful tests of clusters. TP on USD/CAD set at 1.3105 TP on EUR/USD set at 1.1190 Best Regards, Petar {image} {image}
Closed EUR/USD on breakeven. Will tray USD/CAD also. I am waiting news in 4 hours for potential liquidity.

Petar
"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #2,084
  • May 18, 2016 7:17pm May 18, 2016 7:17pm
Hello everyone,
I needed to open a new account due to demo length limitations. I added new trade explorer and opened where there is no limitations. Anyway, i was around breakeven this year so we continue and I hope good results till the end of this year.

Best Regards,
Petar
"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #2,085
  • May 19, 2016 4:27am May 19, 2016 4:27am
Hello traders,
I sold GBP/USD at the price of 1.4638.

a - Massive volume spike (buying climax). Notice where the bar closed. It closed in the middle. Weakness when it appears appears on the up bars, not on the down bars. This is a major sign of weakness after the news.

b - Another sign of weakness. High volume up bar but closed in the middle withing the range of the bars bar.

c - Bullish bar, almost like a doji in a volume lower than previous 2 bars. No buying pressure.

My advice is to sell on pullbacks. TP around 1.4563.
Risk in setup 1%.

Petar
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDM15.pngsetup.png Size: 49 KB
"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #2,086
  • May 19, 2016 10:55am May 19, 2016 10:55am
Quoting Petar_Serbia
Hello traders, I sold GBP/USD at the price of 1.4638. a - Massive volume spike (buying climax). Notice where the bar closed. It closed in the middle. Weakness when it appears appears on the up bars, not on the down bars. This is a major sign of weakness after the news. b - Another sign of weakness. High volume up bar but closed in the middle withing the range of the bars bar. c - Bullish bar, almost like a doji in a volume lower than previous 2 bars. No buying pressure. My advice is to sell on pullbacks. TP around 1.4563. Risk in setup 1%. Petar...
Closed GBP/USD at 1.4596. +1% today
I opened short term position on USD/JPY at 109.86. Will post chart with an explanation later...

Petar
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDM15.png+45.png Size: 54 KB
"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #2,087
  • May 20, 2016 5:39am May 20, 2016 5:39am
Hello traders,
I sold EUR/USD at the price of 1.1216. I market letters on the chart and will go through explanation.

a - Volume spike (buying climax). A wide range of the bar and bar closed near the top. This is a first potential sign of weakness.

b - Another wide range of the bar in a high volume, which tested the resistance at 1.1227. Notice where the bar closed. It closed in the middle. If there is real strength today, how the bar can close in the middle ? It must be that smart traders selling into public buying.

c - Bullish bar in a high volume but we got decreasing in range and the bar again closed in the middle. Since we already saw weakness in the background, this bar can be entry trigger. If you missed this entry, the very next bar was also decent entry (where I took).

The trend is also an important factor. This setup is in sync with the short-term downtrend.

My risk in this setup is only 12 pips and i will try to take 1:3 RRR at least or even more.

If you like my analysis, feel free to comment >

Petar
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDM30.pngsetup.png Size: 53 KB
"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #2,088
  • May 20, 2016 5:58am May 20, 2016 5:58am
I sold AUD/USD at the price of 0.7227. I market letters on the chart and will go through explanation >


a - up-thrust bar in a high volume. This bar is important because it happened on the highest high at that point. So, supply overcame demand in a high volume. This is for me first sign of weakness. Anyway, since the volume analysis is about the background and analyzing more bars to reveal the puzzle, we need to be patient and wait more. You never want to trade according to 1 bar.

b - Some kind of buying climax. Bullish bar in an ultra high volume. The bar closed almost neutral which is the strong sign for me that weakness is coming.

c - Bullish bar in a high volume but the bar closed in the middle - Weakness has appeared

d - Another up-thrust bar in a high volume. Confirmation that clearly we got weakness and that seller may be in control until the end of the day.

The risk is 20 pips and will try to take at least 1:3RRR.

Try to trade always in sync with a trend because your chances are higher if you go in sync wish short term trend. Lets say you found a downward trend, you looking for an intraday weakness to build selling positions. If there is the strength for example in a downtrend, you need to wait for weakness to appear before any sell position.


If you like analysis, feel free to comment >

Petar
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDM30.pngsetup.png Size: 55 KB
"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #2,089
  • May 20, 2016 6:09am May 20, 2016 6:09am
Weakness on AUD/USD and EUR/USD but the British pound looks strong. Notice the support cluster and weak closing of supply bars in a high volume.
Careful with selling GBP ...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDH1.pngstrength.png Size: 65 KB
"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #2,090
  • May 20, 2016 8:36am May 20, 2016 8:36am
Closed SL on EUR/USD and AUD/USD. Sold USD/cAd at the price of 1.3097. going for 50-70 pips. Chart later...
"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #2,091
  • May 23, 2016 7:15am May 23, 2016 7:15am
Hello traders,
Let's start new week and new setups
I saw strength today on EUR/USD around the price of 1.1200. I marked on the chart letters and will go trough explanation >

30M time frame

a - Selling climax (volume spike) and widespread of the bar. This is potential stopping action but we need more evidence, which means more bars to create a decision.

b - Bullish bar in a high volume. Ok, if the previous bearish bar (supply) was from big boys, how the very next bar can close bullish ? This represents potential absorption from the smart money. We need to see a successful test of supply to trigger buy.

c - a Narrow spread of the bar wich closed in the middle in a high volume. This is for me a solid place to build buy position. We already saw strength in the background and this hidden test in a high volume is good confirmation that smart money is interested in upward price.

d - Demand overcame supply in a high volume. Another confirmation of strength.

Sl is around 15 pips and will try to take at least 1:3RRR...

If you like my analysis, feel free to comment >
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDM30.pngsetup.png Size: 64 KB
"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #2,092
  • May 23, 2016 7:36am May 23, 2016 7:36am
Quoting Petar_Serbia
Hello traders, Let's start new week and new setups I saw strength today on EUR/USD around the price of 1.1200. I marked on the chart letters and will go trough explanation > 30M time frame a - Selling climax (volume spike) and widespread of the bar. This is potential stopping action but we need more evidence, which means more bars to create a decision. b - Bullish bar in a high volume. Ok, if the previous bearish bar (supply) was from big boys, how the very next bar can close bullish ? This represents potential absorption from the smart money....
Closed in little minus and started to sell. Its always better to go with a trend. Sold at the price of 1.1202. Risk about 15 pips and going for at least 1:3 RRR. I found up-thrust in a downtrend and i started to sell.

Best Regards,
Petar
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDM30.pngsetup.png Size: 57 KB
"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #2,093
  • May 24, 2016 4:55am May 24, 2016 4:55am
Hello traders,
I sold GBP/USD at the price of 1.4575. I am market letters on the chart and will go through explanation >

I used 5 min time frame in this explanation ...

a - Widespread bar in an ultra high volume (buying climax). This is potential stopping action by professional money. The market doesn't like wide spread bars in an ultra high volume. Especially not on the news.

b - The very next bar supply came in on high volume. A sign that something is cooking.

c - Supply overcame demand. Bullish bar but closed in the middle. This is sigh of weakness

d - Narrow spread of the bar in a low volume. This is classic no demand bar. A good selling signal.

Petar
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDM5.pngsetup.png Size: 54 KB
"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #2,094
  • May 24, 2016 5:11am May 24, 2016 5:11am
Quoting Petar_Serbia
Hello traders, I sold GBP/USD at the price of 1.4575. I am market letters on the chart and will go through explanation > I used 5 min time frame in this explanation ... a - Widespread bar in an ultra high volume (buying climax). This is potential stopping action by professional money. The market doesn't like wide spread bars in an ultra high volume. Especially not on the news. b - The very next bar supply came in on high volume. A sign that something is cooking. c - Supply overcame demand. Bullish bar but closed in the middle. This is sigh of weakness...
Since I saw 2 no supply bar (successful tets). I exited short positions and started to buy at the price of 1.4588. The trend is bullish and since I saw that there is no power from sellers to react I started to buy. Risk is about 25 pips and will try to take at least 1:3RRR.


Petar
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDM5.pngbuying.png Size: 56 KB
"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #2,095
  • May 24, 2016 6:37am May 24, 2016 6:37am
I established sell on AUD/USD. Again, strong downward trend and few up-thrust bar confirm weakness on AUD/USD.

Also, I found intraday supply trendline which held successfully.
Risk is about 15 pips and will try to take at least 1:3 RRR.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDM15.png24.png Size: 70 KB
"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #2,096
  • May 24, 2016 9:44am May 24, 2016 9:44am
Hello guys,
I got stoped on AUD/USD but I found beauty inverted head and shoulders formation. I saw a breakout in a high volume, which is a strong sign of strength.
Going for at least 1:3RRR. Risk about 20 pips.

Tp level at 0.7250

Best regards,
Petar
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDM15.pngHSS.png Size: 53 KB
"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #2,097
  • May 26, 2016 5:12am May 26, 2016 5:12am
Hello traders,
I will start to post-market auction analysis (Market profile) together with volume price action.

The Market Profile is a dynamic, real-time database that records, organizes, and displays the market’s evolving auction process. Its primary benefit rests in its unique ability to facilitate the interpretation of market generated information.
The foundational building blocks of the Market Profile are time, price, and volume. When these building blocks are displayed within a Market Profile graphic, traders experienced with the Market Profile are, in most cases, able to identify developing balance and imbalance in the market’s structure. Interpreting the probability of change frequently provides the trader an undeniable edge in identifying potential opportunities.

Basic >
Every letter represent 30M period and this analysis is also called Auction analysis. What i do rly. like in this type of analaysis is TIME factor. In my opinion TIME is very important factor and it tells you a lot of things to understand market behaivor.

I am posting you my AUD/USD active position. I took long at 0.7206. I did analysis on today market structure and I found buying tail - single prints F in this exmaple (responsive buyers from the big boys). Time told me that buyers are in big control today and that higher prices is very possible.

Sl is around 25 pips and i will try to take about 75 pips. Anywya, will fallow market structure if i need to close manually.

From Volume spread analysis prospective I found revesal up-thrust in a ultra high volume, which is good sign that we got conditions for higher price.

If you like my analysis, feel free to comment >

Petar
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDM30.pngbuying.png Size: 71 KB
"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #2,098
  • May 26, 2016 10:42am May 26, 2016 10:42am
Can you please explain what is "market auction analysis" 1st Petar?
  • #2,099
  • May 26, 2016 1:45pm May 26, 2016 1:45pm
Quoting 45Fxguy
Can you please explain what is "market auction analysis" 1st Petar?
Hello, Friend

Think of trade facilitation in terms of your corner grocery store. If the price of peanut butter is too high, shoppers will refrain from buying, and the grocer will realize that price is too high. He will then move price lower until the buyer responds by purchasing the product. If the grocer moves price too low, however, his inventory will be quickly depleted as buyers take advantage of the price below value. Finally, the price will balance somewhere in between the two extremes, where a value is established and two-sided trade can take place. Price must move too high or too low before both the grocer and the shopper know it has gone far enough. The same is true in the futures market. The market auctions up until the buyer will buy no more, and down until the seller will sell no more, in the process establishing extremes of price, shown in the profile .

Using the market profile we can watch structure, spot value levels and also extreme levels. The point is to catch when the market is inbalance or when the market got extremes.
"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #2,100
  • May 27, 2016 11:27pm May 27, 2016 11:27pm
Hi Petar,

I continue to follow your threads routinely, I was wondering if you have any beginner guides or resources that you could point me to in understanding leveraging the use of tick volumes and volume spread analysis?

Thanks!

Keep up the good work, your analysis has been very good and helped me a lot!
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