Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 382 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #7,621
  • Edited 6:57am May 18, 2016 6:09am | Edited 6:57am
Quoting panoramia
AUDUSD keeps on dropping, new supply imbalances created on the daily for shorts with bigger picture downtrend and lots of room to reach opposing bigger timeframe weekly demand imbalance as explained in previous analysis. Hope anybody could catch this short. {image}

Thank you Alfonso.. this is really useful for learning. Appreciate you taking the time to do it.
  • #7,622
  • May 18, 2016 7:03am May 18, 2016 7:03am
Quoting panoramia
AUDUSD keeps on dropping, new supply imbalances created on the daily for shorts with bigger picture downtrend and lots of room to reach opposing bigger timeframe weekly demand imbalance as explained in previous analysis. Hope anybody could catch this short. {image}
I missed a few pips
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDH4.png Size: 48 KB
  • #7,623
  • May 18, 2016 10:00am May 18, 2016 10:00am
Quoting panoramia
AUDUSD keeps on dropping, new supply imbalances created on the daily for shorts with bigger picture downtrend and lots of room to reach opposing bigger timeframe weekly demand imbalance as explained in previous analysis. Hope anybody could catch this short. {image}
Hello Alfonso. Good short, but D1 trendline is broken. Why did you sell?
  • #7,624
  • May 18, 2016 11:54am May 18, 2016 11:54am
Hi Conom589,

if I may answer, at the moment he entered the trade, there was no full candle close beyond that trendline.

My question is, why is this doji candle considered as a SZ?

Becaus of this?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDDaily.png Size: 33 KB
  • #7,625
  • May 18, 2016 1:10pm May 18, 2016 1:10pm
I think the trend is downward because was not broken previous area of supply.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD.png Size: 125 KB
  • #7,626
  • May 18, 2016 1:58pm May 18, 2016 1:58pm
Quoting motry26
I think the trend is downward because was not broken previous area of supply. {image}
The trend is down on AUDUSD based on supply and demand definition of a trend, so shorts is the way to go. Cheers
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #7,627
  • May 18, 2016 1:59pm May 18, 2016 1:59pm
Quoting conom589
{quote} Hello Alfonso. Good short, but D1 trendline is broken. Why did you sell?
The D1 trendline is not broken my friend. You MUST read the rules. By the time price hit supply level the trendline was NOT broken so it was a valid entry. Please go through the rules again, this is key. Cheers, Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #7,628
  • May 18, 2016 2:00pm May 18, 2016 2:00pm
Quoting motry26
{quote} I missed a few pips {image}
Pity that you missed it by a few pips, that happens many times. But there will be many supply and demand imbalances to trade, so don't lose too much sleep over that

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #7,629
  • May 18, 2016 2:01pm May 18, 2016 2:01pm
Quoting motry26
My GBPUSD trade . Dear Alfonso would you comment on the correct construction of trend lines. For earlier thanks. {image}
All good with GBPUSD demand long entry my friend. Weekly out of alignment, longs were fine on confirmation. Cheers, Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #7,630
  • May 19, 2016 1:24am May 19, 2016 1:24am
Dollar index has removed opposing weekly supply imbalance (drawn in red on the attached daily chart). New Daily demand zones are being created after its removal. Room to opposing Monthly supply level with a 3 months uptrend.

This is affecting dollar cross pairs, most of them breaking higher forming new demand imbalances.

Have a great day!
Cheers,
Alfonso

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #7,631
  • May 19, 2016 2:29am May 19, 2016 2:29am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} I haven't traded CHF pairs, never traded EUR/CHF either because of what swiss bank did.
Hi Alfonso! I am re-reading the whole thread now for deeper understanding and got to this point here. Now the swiss bank having unpegged CHF from the EUR, do you include CHF pairs somehow in your trading?

Thanks, Ventzi
  • #7,632
  • May 19, 2016 5:26am May 19, 2016 5:26am
Hi Alfonso!
I follow you in this forum and on your youtube channel! Thanks for help us!

I have a question on EUR/GBP Monthly, look my picture: in my opinion we are in down trend on Monthly but we can see that we have a new Demand level than taken out the previous Supply level by some pips, than it react and prise go down...

My question is: in this case the previous level of Supply is invalidate? Now are we in Demand control or a new level of Supply is born ad we need to looking for short position?

Thanks a lot!!
Mauro

P.S: sorry for my english, i'm italian!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBPMonthly.png Size: 45 KB
Limit your loss, save partial gain and let the profit run!
  • #7,633
  • May 19, 2016 7:45am May 19, 2016 7:45am
Quoting deadliness
{quote} Hi Alfonso! I am re-reading the whole thread now for deeper understanding and got to this point here. Now the swiss bank having unpegged CHF from the EUR, do you include CHF pairs somehow in your trading? Thanks, Ventzi
Not including the CHF pairs in my trading Ventz. Looked at the USD/CHF the other day and took a long trade for the first time in more than a year... But that's the only one I looked, all CHF pairs are highly correlated to EUR pairs, so it would be like duplicating my risk.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #7,634
  • May 19, 2016 7:46am May 19, 2016 7:46am
Quoting MadMojosss
Hi Alfonso! I follow you in this forum and on your youtube channel! Thanks for help us! I have a question on EUR/GBP Monthly, look my picture: in my opinion we are in down trend on Monthly but we can see that we have a new Demand level than taken out the previous Supply level by some pips, than it react and prise go down... My question is: in this case the previous level of Supply is invalidate? Now are we in Demand control or a new level of Supply is born ad we need to looking for short position? Thanks a lot!! Mauro P.S: sorry for my english,...
EURGBP is in an uptrend, not a downtrend, for several reasons... which ones? Rules say it

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #7,635
  • May 19, 2016 10:35am May 19, 2016 10:35am
Hi Alfonso and thanks for your quick answer!
I suppose than i see the chat incorrectly If i focus my eyes in the last part of the chat, I can see 2 picks (and i have drow the trend line) and a Demand level than broke the trend line and take out the last Supply level...

The rules say:

1) A zone or imbalance is validated under these 2 specific circumstances:

  1. Imbalance took out an opposing zone
  2. A Trendline has been broken

2) UPTREND: demand areas are being respected, supply areas are being taken out.
A higher high SHOULD remove previous supply to validate the demand zone

Both this 2 points are true in my chart.
Is this the correct analisys in your opinion?

Thanks!
Mauro

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBPMonthly.png Size: 37 KB
Limit your loss, save partial gain and let the profit run!
  • #7,636
  • May 19, 2016 12:46pm May 19, 2016 12:46pm
Quoting MadMojosss
Hi Alfonso and thanks for your quick answer! I suppose than i see the chat incorrectly If i focus my eyes in the last part of the chat, I can see 2 picks (and i have drow the trend line) and a Demand level than broke the trend line and take out the last Supply level... The rules say: 1) A zone or imbalance is validated under these 2 specific circumstances: Imbalance took out an opposing zone A Trendline has been broken 2) UPTREND: demand areas are being respected, supply areas are being taken out. A higher high SHOULD remove previous...
Hello Mauro,

See attachment on EURGBP. Tell me what you think about what I've drawn on EURGBP supply and demand analysis and the trendline... What do you see now? Cheers

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 153 KB
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #7,637
  • May 19, 2016 2:45pm May 19, 2016 2:45pm
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Hello Mauro, See attachment on EURGBP. Tell me what you think about what I've drawn on EURGBP supply and demand analysis and the trendline... What do you see now? Cheers {image}
I see then I continuous to watch the chart in wrong way!

Ok, with your corrections I see 2 valleys, connected by a valid trend line. In the second valley we have a Demand level than create a new higher high and take out the previous Supply level. The trend is up.

I need to improve the way I see the chart!

Thanks Alfonso!
Limit your loss, save partial gain and let the profit run!
  • #7,638
  • May 20, 2016 1:58am May 20, 2016 1:58am
Quoting MadMojosss
{quote} I see then I continuous to watch the chart in wrong way! Ok, with your corrections I see 2 valleys, connected by a valid trend line. In the second valley we have a Demand level than create a new higher high and take out the previous Supply level. The trend is up. I need to improve the way I see the chart! Thanks Alfonso!
No problem Mauro, glad you could see what I meant with the monthly supply and demand uptrend on EURGBP. Supply imbalance was taken our, new level of demand creaed. Uptrend.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #7,639
  • May 20, 2016 1:59am May 20, 2016 1:59am
GBPNOK has now a clear daily uptrend after taking out one opposing supply level. Daly bullish trendline possible connecting last two clear valleys. New demand imbalance for longs. Long bias.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpnok.jpg Size: 85 KB
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #7,640
  • May 20, 2016 5:58am May 20, 2016 5:58am
Hi dear traders!
I'm back with EURGBP, now Weekly chart
This is my question: the previous trend line (yellow) is still valid. The last Supply level (B) taken out the previous Demand level by some pips. In this case is correct remove the previous trend line and the previuos Demand level for drow the new trend line (connect A-B) and validate the last Supply level? Are we in Downtrend now?

Cheers!
Mauro
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBPWeekly.png Size: 45 KB
Limit your loss, save partial gain and let the profit run!
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