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As simple as possible: 00 level trading

  • #34,201
  • May 17, 2016 3:43am May 17, 2016 3:43am
What happened this morning gave me the chance to see how sometimes I stay blocked on my (wrong) beliefs being unable to act on opportunities that market offers. Today I've been unable to accept the unstoppable ride of GBP because I couldn't find a logical reason to justify it. So while waiting for a sudden reversal that didn't arrive I lost many easy pips- The mistake I made was to over-think instead to act. Then, to complete the series of psychological errors I closed manually AUDJPY despite AUD being strong and JPY weak because PA was too close to RgH level. At least the book that LuXing advised me some posts ago has made me aware about this stream of unconscious thoughts giving me the possibility to try sooner or later to master them .

#1 AUDUSD to TP
#2 USDJPY to TP
#3 EURJPY to TP
#4 AUDJPY close manually at BE.

Bubincka
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Porta itineris dicitur longissima esse
  • #34,202
  • May 17, 2016 1:00pm May 17, 2016 1:00pm
Quoting bubincka
What happened this morning gave me the chance to see how sometimes I stay blocked on my (wrong) beliefs being unable to act on opportunities that market offers. Today I've been unable to accept the unstoppable ride of GBP because I couldn't find a logical reason to justify it. So while waiting for a sudden reversal that didn't arrive I lost many easy pips- The mistake I made was to over-think instead to act. Then, to complete the series of psychological errors I closed manually AUDJPY despite AUD being strong and JPY weak because PA was too close...
Nice, very nice trades bubincka!

Stay positive Mm
"All will be correctly, in this world is built" - The Master and Margarita
  • #34,203
  • May 18, 2016 2:47am May 18, 2016 2:47am
Quoting Multimillion
{quote} Nice, very nice trades bubincka! Stay positive Mm
Thank you Multimillion. We are all here to learn and try to take out of the market what is has to offer.

Best regards,
Bubincka
Porta itineris dicitur longissima esse
  • #34,204
  • May 18, 2016 6:51am May 18, 2016 6:51am
Today mixed results, tending to negative. USD (apparent) strength being the dollar in 1st or 2nd position most of the time during the first hours of LO session was somehow deceiving. In fact USD wasn't strong at all and this became clear with the big burst of GBP one hour after the good news release for the ccy. Before taking a position based on currency strength it is very important to check lower timeframes and strength increase/decrease across time. For such a whole view, tools like the ones LuXing showed some screenshots ago could do the difference.

#1 AUDUSD to TP
#2 NZDUSD to TP
#3 USDCHF to TP
#4 USDJPY to TP
#5 EURUSD to SL
#6 GBPUSD to SL

Best regards,
Bubincka
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Porta itineris dicitur longissima esse
  • #34,205
  • May 18, 2016 7:27am May 18, 2016 7:27am
Some more trades to get the balance right. Irony is that of all that flood of pips made available from GBP move I could only take -17 (stoploss), and being caught wrong-footed I wasn't able to catch the train any more. I'm happy the same.

#7 USDCAD to TP
#8 USDJPY to TP
#9 EURAUDto TP
#10 NZDUSD to TP

Bubincka
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Porta itineris dicitur longissima esse
  • #34,206
  • May 18, 2016 4:07pm May 18, 2016 4:07pm
Quoting bubincka
What happened this morning gave me the chance to see how sometimes I stay blocked on my (wrong) beliefs being unable to act on opportunities that market offers. Today I've been unable to accept the unstoppable ride of GBP because I couldn't find a logical reason to justify it. So while waiting for a sudden reversal that didn't arrive I lost many easy pips- The mistake I made was to over-think instead to act. Then, to complete the series of psychological errors I closed manually AUDJPY despite AUD being strong and JPY weak because PA was too close...
Good trades, congratulations.

GBP was doing its thing - an unstoppable ride - and you did not believe it ?

Not believing = going against Einstein’s Brownian motion (random walk principle)…
GBP was simply doing what all other currencies and stocks do: a random walk.

In each time period, the GBP/x price takes an independent random step up or down, a so-called random walk. If up and down movements are equally likely at each intersection of the 00-levels, then every possible left-to-right path through an imaginary grid is equally likely à priori.
The behaviour of currencies (in the absence of Red News) is perfectly Brownian.
In other words, currencies behave like unidimentional random walkers.
A random walker is a function of the square root of time and this is exactly what GBP has followed to experimental perfection.
A staggering drunkard walking a couple of miles, except that the distance the drunkard managed to walk was beyond your belief.

Regarding the RgL/RgH levels, the standard settings in the indi – if I am not mistaken - are 20% of the ADR.
That’s a hell of a safety margin in today’s (more volatile) markets. You might want to consider lowering its level to 10 or even 5%.
It will maybe make you less nervous and avoid premature closure of trades when PA comes closer and closer to this level ;-)

Good thing you are aware of certain counterproductive things / limits imposed by your own brain.
It’s not possible to overcome something you are not even aware of.

Como siempre, happy trading.
LuXing
Wisdom begins in wonder
  • #34,207
  • May 18, 2016 4:20pm May 18, 2016 4:20pm
Quoting bubincka
Today mixed results, tending to negative. USD (apparent) strength being the dollar in 1st or 2nd position most of the time during the first hours of LO session was somehow deceiving. In fact USD wasn't strong at all and this became clear with the big burst of GBP one hour after the good news release for the ccy. Before taking a position based on currency strength it is very important to check lower timeframes and strength increase/decrease across time. For such a whole view, tools like the ones LuXing showed some screenshots ago could do the difference....


Very well spotted !!!!

Zero trades for me until (almost) NY Open. Messy market, (apparent) USD fake strength. Took a while before the rabbit jumped out of the hat.

#1 GCAD, entry .400 level, +4.6 pips
#2 GJPY, entry .500 level, +7.5 pips

A couple of GCADs, drunken guy just kept on walking.
EURCAD for a change, weak CAD

On to weak AUD
EURAUD
AUDUSD

Back to weak CAD
USDCAD

And back to weak AUD again
GBPAUD

And on and on.
My favourite today was CHFJPY, really straight forward.

LuXing
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Wisdom begins in wonder
  • #34,208
  • May 18, 2016 4:46pm May 18, 2016 4:46pm
Quoting Masterrmind
{quote} Explain what you mean by late? Are you referring to conducting: 1. the chart analysis prior to a pending order being set 2. the pair or pairs to trade 3. the timing of the trade 4. something else Masterrmind........... :nerd:
Dear friend, I am interesting in 1) - chart analysis before pending set & timing (read = right moment) I mean choosing of a moment when price is ready to leave this range always difficult to me. This I mean when saying I am often late to trade because price made a rocket start from the range and I am not aboard..
It is more or less clear situation with pairs to trade.

Thanks in advance

ps my pips today:
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Stay positive, Multimillion
"All will be correctly, in this world is built" - The Master and Margarita
  • #34,209
  • Edited May 19, 2016 10:40am May 18, 2016 4:55pm | Edited May 19, 2016 10:40am
Quoting bubincka
Some more trades to get the balance right. Irony is that of all that flood of pips made available from GBP move I could only take -17 (stoploss), and being caught wrong-footed I wasn't able to catch the train any more. I'm happy the same. #7 USDCAD to TP #8 USDJPY to TP #9 EURAUDto TP #10 NZDUSD to TP Bubincka {image} {image} {image} {image}
P.S.: USDJPY, the H4 trend is your friend, better not trade against it.

From left to right: M15, H1, H4, D1 (-;

LuXing
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Wisdom begins in wonder
  • #34,210
  • May 18, 2016 10:21pm May 18, 2016 10:21pm
Quoting Multimillion
{quote} Dear friend, I am interesting in 1) - chart analysis before pending set & timing (read = right moment) I mean choosing of a moment when price is ready to leave this range always difficult to me. This I mean when saying I am often late to trade because price made a rocket start from the range and I am not aboard.. It is more or less clear situation with pairs to trade. Thanks in advance ps my pips today: {image} Stay positive, Multimillion
I suggest the following:

1. Study candlestick patterns (google the key words)

2. Chart structure (price order flow both short term and long term)

3. Pivot Points

4. DO line (what does price usually do in this zone?)

5. Support and resistance zones (key level and mini chart structure)

6. Fibs (if you wish but mainly to gain confluence or a general view on where price is likely to go)

7. Momentum (no need for flashing colors from a lagging indicator because you can train your eyes to see this ... just practice)

8. Risk (trade or not trade .... what is your expectation on winning the trade? .... is it worth the risk or should you miss the trade?)

9. Trader discretion (enter or not enter?)

Now once you have studied the charts intensely by considering the general points outlined above your mind will start to form an opinion of how likely price is to hit your TP (and how likely to hit your SL)

The more chart time = the faster and more accurate will be your judgements on price action and the better your results.

Test your ability by trading on a very small live account (relative to the trader of course) or a demo (for learning purposes)

Try looking at M15/M5 and also M1 TF charts because on lower TF charts you "see" much more of the PA!

Look at my charts I trade this method almost exclusively from M5 charts (occasionally I drop down to an M1 chart for extra detail)

Price action is king but so too are driving sentiment and the fundamentals however, if 5 pip TPs are the aim then the fundamentals play very little role except you do need to be aware of impending news and you also need to form an opinion (trade or not trade).

ps. the less lagging indicators you apply to the chart the more you start to have faith in your own ability to make sound trades.

Good trading,

Masterrmind...........
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #34,211
  • May 19, 2016 3:00am May 19, 2016 3:00am
Quoting LuXing
{quote} Good trades, congratulations. GBP was doing its thing - an unstoppable ride - and you did not believe it ? Not believing = going against Einsteins Brownian motion (random walk principle) GBP was simply doing what all other currencies and stocks do: a random walk. In each time period, the GBP/x price takes an independent random step up or down, a so-called random walk. If up and down movements are equally likely at each intersection of the 00-levels, then every possible left-to-right path through an imaginary grid is equally likely priori....
OK.
I don't have this great background of knowledge, but I'm absolutely willing to learn.

Thank you one more time,
Bubincka
Porta itineris dicitur longissima esse
  • #34,212
  • May 19, 2016 3:01am May 19, 2016 3:01am
Quoting LuXing
{quote} P.S.: USDJPY, the H4 trend is your friend, better not trade against it. From left to right: M15, H1, H4, D1 (-; LuXing {image} {file}
Good. I'll make use of it!

Bubincka
Porta itineris dicitur longissima esse
  • #34,213
  • May 19, 2016 3:10am May 19, 2016 3:10am
Today early morning trades taken before FFO-

#1 USDJPJ to TP
#2 EURJPY to TP

Bubincka
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Porta itineris dicitur longissima esse
  • #34,214
  • May 19, 2016 5:02am May 19, 2016 5:02am
Quoting bubincka
Today early morning trades taken before FFO- #1 USDJPJ to TP #2 EURJPY to TP Bubincka {image} {image}

Nice trades, be careful though. Different sessions = different market behaviour.

NZDJPY to TP.

LuXing
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Wisdom begins in wonder
  • #34,215
  • May 19, 2016 5:37am May 19, 2016 5:37am
Better late than never...
Big move, bit of a pullback followed by continuation.

GBPAUD & GBPCAD to TP.

LuXing
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Wisdom begins in wonder
  • #34,216
  • May 19, 2016 6:26am May 19, 2016 6:26am
CADJPY once more to TP.

LuXing
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Wisdom begins in wonder
  • #34,217
  • May 19, 2016 8:20am May 19, 2016 8:20am
And another one in the pocket: USDCAD +5.5 pips
Just the way I like them, in and out in under 2 minutes.

LuXing
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Wisdom begins in wonder
  • #34,218
  • May 19, 2016 10:35am May 19, 2016 10:35am
Quoting Masterrmind
{quote} I suggest the following: 1. Study candlestick patterns (google the key words) 2. Chart structure (price order flow both short term and long term) 3. Pivot Points 4. DO line (what does price usually do in this zone?) 5. Support and resistance zones (key level and mini chart structure) 6. Fibs (if you wish but mainly to gain confluence or a general view on where price is likely to go) 7. Momentum (no need for flashing colors from a lagging indicator because you can train your eyes to see this ... just practice) 8. Risk (trade or not trade...
Thanks for your time & this plan.

All the best!
"All will be correctly, in this world is built" - The Master and Margarita
  • #34,219
  • May 19, 2016 10:41am May 19, 2016 10:41am
Quoting LuXing
Better late than never... Big move, bit of a pullback followed by continuation. GBPAUD & GBPCAD to TP. LuXing {image}
and I bought exactly this pullback
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...
"All will be correctly, in this world is built" - The Master and Margarita
  • #34,220
  • May 19, 2016 7:29pm May 19, 2016 7:29pm
Quoting Multimillion
{quote} Thanks for your time & this plan. All the best!
Here is a trade I just took on the GJ pair at Tokyo Open

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I simply followed the price action (PA) on the chart.

Look at the previous few M5 candles and see how far price has traveled and the difficulty of price to push lower.

Although price was under WR level do not be fooled by this because these levels are NOT actual price specific they should be considered as price zones especially if you look at them from a higher TF in which case they will look like the one level.

I look for signs of slowing down of momentum (the selling force that drives price lower) and then I act quickly to avoid a costly loss.

Never set and forget your trades .... follow the PA and make quick decisions with a calm mind!

If you had of taken this short and applied a set + forget mentality the end result would be -10 pips instead of +2 pips!

ps. follow the PA across the chart, be aware of the obstacles on the chart and listen to what the chart is attempting to tell you...critical for success!

Masterrmind............. :nerd:
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
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