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Oil and Natural Gas

  • #2,421
  • May 16, 2016 2:54am May 16, 2016 2:54am
This is worth a read if you haven't already http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Ge...-Oil-Pric.html
  • #2,422
  • May 16, 2016 3:21am May 16, 2016 3:21am
Quoting Marz30
{quote} Yes just a guess I would assume banks exposure to oil companies is high and their debt is high yield so any rallies in oil is very positive for banks.
No. When the oil price goes down the market fears that a.n.other bank will be left holding the debt if the oil company goes bankrupt.

The banks do not make huge returns on money lent to oil companies, they make normal reasonable finance costs ... until companies start to need money. At that point the borrowing company goes onto risk-weighted lending; either the company cannot get funding anywhere and has to start selling assets, or said company manages to issue bonds in the market for greatly inflated coupon rates. Equally said company might be able to raise capital by issuing new stock, but at this point there may be few takers.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #2,423
  • May 16, 2016 3:55am May 16, 2016 3:55am
Quoting S.McDuck
This is worth a read if you haven't already http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Ge...-Oil-Pric.html
Thanks, a handy link. As if by magic, and I'm sure to the great pleasure of Glencore ... this from elsewhere:
"SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Oil prices jumped over 1 percent on Monday after long-time bear Goldman Sachs said the market had ended almost two years of oversupply and flipped to a deficit following global oil disruptions."

It would have been nice if they had just held-off releasing that view by a couple of days....
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #2,424
  • May 16, 2016 4:01am May 16, 2016 4:01am
Quoting Exodus
{quote} Thanks, a handy link. As if by magic, and I'm sure to the great pleasure of Glencore ... this from elsewhere: "SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Oil prices jumped over 1 percent on Monday after long-time bear Goldman Sachs said the market had ended almost two years of oversupply and flipped to a deficit following global oil disruptions." It would have been nice if they had just held-off releasing that view by a couple of days....
If they said so, so it means they have large short positions and they want to close it very soon to potential big buyers after their announcement.
This is usually the big market makers' game...
Just an opinion
  • #2,425
  • May 16, 2016 8:01am May 16, 2016 8:01am
Quoting S.McDuck
This is worth a read if you haven't already http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Ge...-Oil-Pric.html

Thank's for the information.
My inglish is not very good, from what I understand,

glencore retain :

"30 percent position in Brent, which it is holding for offshore storage in its tankers".

The article say this is why statistics give an inventoey of -3.4 m of barrel last week.

Glencore is waiting and hoping, betting, on higher oil price.

I don't get it.
Saudi arabia is the big frend of USA, if they increase the supply, price will go down, and glencore will lose his bet.
Price are politic for a big part, it depend of US willing.

Glencore cannot control oil supply, it too much money, a big bet is going on, I will watch.
  • #2,426
  • May 16, 2016 11:07am May 16, 2016 11:07am
Quoting shebalik
Double Top at daily chart. I believe last move to a new bottom will just start sometime next week. First target may be 44. In mid term I believe we will find the bottom around 20. After that a long term up trend may start.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-re...-idUSKCN0Y70QO
  • #2,427
  • May 16, 2016 11:45am May 16, 2016 11:45am
Quoting Exodus
{quote} No. When the oil price goes down the market fears that a.n.other bank will be left holding the debt if the oil company goes bankrupt. The banks do not make huge returns on money lent to oil companies, they make normal reasonable finance costs ... until companies start to need money. At that point the borrowing company goes onto risk-weighted lending; either the company cannot get funding anywhere and has to start selling assets, or said company manages to issue bonds in the market for greatly inflated coupon rates. Equally said company might...
Thanks for the clarification!
TE started 6/4/19
  • #2,428
  • May 16, 2016 9:42pm May 16, 2016 9:42pm
Quoting gnomoneey
my view usoil {image}
Seems to be on schedule
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #2,429
  • May 17, 2016 3:19am May 17, 2016 3:19am
I just realized that you target above $60. That's an interesting thought.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #2,430
  • May 17, 2016 5:23am May 17, 2016 5:23am
Quoting gnomoneey
{quote} Seems to be on schedule
It will be very interesting if your setup materializes. With the negativity (with the continuous level of bearishness on oil) I see around I will not be surprised. A lot of people are still betting against oil prices.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #2,431
  • May 17, 2016 7:21am May 17, 2016 7:21am
Quoting Exodus
I just realized that you target above $60. That's an interesting thought.
usoil just something to keep in mind
-ab=cd at 51.49
- cypher at 54.74
-261%=67.22
- if this longtime tl is right we can be in this downtrend for a longtime....max this year at 90.xx
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Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #2,432
  • May 17, 2016 10:25am May 17, 2016 10:25am
Quoting gnomoneey
{quote} usoil just something to keep in mind -ab=cd at 51.49 - cypher at 54.74 -261%=67.22 - if this longtime tl is right we can be in this downtrend for a longtime....max this year at 90.xx {image}
forgot this tl from bottom up
-need to break and stay above red tl.....
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Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #2,433
  • May 17, 2016 11:39am May 17, 2016 11:39am
Quoting manosk
{quote} It will be very interesting if your setup materializes. With the negativity (with the continuous level of bearishness on oil) I see around I will not be surprised. A lot of people are still betting against oil prices.
I'm sure it materialize, sentiment on oil only 37% bulls and this is after 85% of rally...
  • #2,434
  • May 17, 2016 11:52am May 17, 2016 11:52am
Crude seems to have broken the midprice of last year range.....[48.54]........possibly gearing to maintain a 50.00 to 60.00 price range during the 1st half of this year despite all sentiments. Well...all due to sudden dramatic spikes in geo-political and WTI/US stock movements , I think.

Lets wait for a pullback... thenn off it moves torwards 55.00.......fingures crossed!
  • #2,435
  • May 18, 2016 7:45am May 18, 2016 7:45am
There is a big ETE on SP500, if the support break, it will go to 2000, and then to 1970.

Oil then will pullback.
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  • #2,436
  • May 19, 2016 4:47am May 19, 2016 4:47am
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  • #2,437
  • May 19, 2016 5:53am May 19, 2016 5:53am
Quoting GqOrlando
{image}
Hello Gq,
your 46.10 level is also in the 50% fib area (in the way I put fib on my chart).
Sorry for the poor quality of my volume profile.
Have a nice day and green pips.
regards
valter
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  • #2,438
  • May 19, 2016 5:56am May 19, 2016 5:56am
Quoting valter
{quote} Hello Gq, your 46.10 level is also in the 50% fib area (in the way I put fib on my chart). Sorry for the poor quality of my volume profile. Have a nice day and green pips. regards valter {image}
Yes thatīs true. About the fifty not the VP lol. I used the last leg of the entire move. that 50 gives a more solid setups
  • #2,439
  • May 19, 2016 6:02am May 19, 2016 6:02am
Quoting valter
{quote} Hello Gq, your 46.10 level is also in the 50% fib area (in the way I put fib on my chart). Sorry for the poor quality of my volume profile. Have a nice day and green pips. regards valter {image}
Are you using spot or the future? Gq is using the July future as I understand. The difference is about 70 cents (yours is lower) if I am not mistaken, so your 46.10 is about 46.80 on his chart.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #2,440
  • May 19, 2016 6:33am May 19, 2016 6:33am
Quoting manosk
{quote} Are you using spot or the future? Gq is using the July future as I understand. The difference is about 70 cents (yours is lower) if I am not mistaken, so your 46.10 is about 46.80 on his chart.
Sorry, I didn't specify.
My chart is Oanda cfd.
Yes there is a difference in the quotation.
Anyway the important levels can be easily found.
The real main difference is the huge spread applied by Oanda
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