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Forex as a Future?

  • #201
  • May 17, 2016 2:16am May 17, 2016 2:16am
Quoting hanover
{quote} It's never happened to me, as least not that I've been aware, in such a way that the evidence is obvious. Perhaps I'm too small to be a worthwhile target! Nonetheless, whether rightly or wrongly, there are plenty of complaints in the Broker Discussion forum. I'm also aware that software like virtual dealer plug-ins for MT4 does exist.
Yes I know about the MT4 plug-in and I know many people complain about brokers doing underhand things - but I don't think its that targeted - I believe FXCM have just been fined for using asymettrical slippage - i.e. taking advantage of slippage when it was in their favour and passing on the loss when it wasn't but that was implemented over their entire system, it wasn't targeted. I do know a couple of on course bookmakers and I know that their focus is on the overall book and never on individual bettors, even one's known to them - trying to work special prices for different punters would probably make keeping the book balanced more difficult - it's easier to just lay off those bets to reduce risk. And like a 'B-Book' broker a bookmaker is taking a position on any event for which they make the book - they also have an over-round, although the advent of the internet and betting exchanges has reduced this considerably just like spreads have reduced in financial markets.

As to the OP's original premise that success in retail forex wasn't possible, I don't know. Several people have linked to this article which suggests a good portion of accounts are in profit over the period in question - of course you could look at multiple periods and see if it was the same accounts that were profitable and if you lengthen the time scale sufficiently maybe most accounts suffer - people talking about leverage as a means to make money - imagine having a leveraged position on the wrong side when the CHF removed its peg - ouch. There's lots that can go wrong and most people give it too little thought.

That said I also know a couple of people who make plenty of money betting on horse and dog racing - something else that most people would say can't be done. Thinking about those two the things that stand out are - they don't do it for the money but for the enjoyment/challenge and they're not upset by their losses. Maybe there are other things, knowledge, length of time they've been involved in racing etc etc but its the other two that stand out - and those two are connected.
  • #202
  • Edited 3:21am May 17, 2016 2:41am | Edited 3:21am
Quoting PaulDaemon
{quote} 95 to 99%? thats only speculation http://www.financemagnates.com/forex...accounts-down/
These numbers do only show the results after 3 months...... just three f....ing months! And each day someone takes them as proof....... what a joke!

Do the math:
Profitability after 3 months : 0.32
Prifitability after 6 months : 0.32^2
Profitability after 12 months : 0.32^4
Profitability after x months : 0.32^(x/3)
Profitability afer 5 years : 0% ---- very often -80 to -100%

And finally not to forget the profitablity after a SNB/ 15.01.2015 like event:
Up to -1000%, fincancially ruined and in deep debt, since no stop loss will protect you in such a event..... just read FF on 15.01.2015 and you get an impression how screwed the retailers (and even some of the brokers...) were....

This has been explained a lot of times....still people don't get it. Forex has no future other than providing a gambling environment for entertainment, till regulatory will one day take it down completly. You will never ever show me a retail trader trading regularly (+/- constant volume each month & constant risk ratio per trade) over a period of 60 months that is still profitable using a leverage above 5:1.


Fact is:

  1. It's a negative sum game heavly designed against retail customers on every level of interaction.
  2. A forex broker therefore can't build up a win - win costumer relation ship - they don't even try to do so, so the business modell needs a havy marketing budget to replace the customers that drop out at a high rate with new suckers and cover up this fact with massive propaganda.
  3. "Gamler's ruin" theorem makes sure all highly leveraged participants will be ripped off the faster the higher there leverage is - so your broker like to offer you as much leverage as possible.
  4. All leverage above 3:1 is absolutly ridiculous....leverages of 100:1, 200:1 or even 500:1 is in my view without discussion outright criminal.
  5. Now calculate what the market gives you on your capital base at a maximum leverage of 2 or 3.....and check wether it is worth the amount of time you invest...... not so interesting, isn't it.
  6. Check a forex brokers marketing budget compared to their overall turnover..... you will see what enormous amounts of money (60-80% of their total costs) they are putting into the markting machinery to lure in new suckers and cover up the fact that retail forex is a pure suckers game....
  7. No wonder you find a lot of (commercial) users on this plattform that share an interest on this marketing money spent......
  8. You will always lose against:
    -market paricipants big enough to manipulate the markets directly or indirectly by controlling the news flow
    -brokers that trigger your stops by widening spreads
    -HFT firms frontrunning your orders
    -insiders trading on non public, fundamentally relevant information (CB decisions, important economic news releases, political decisions, etc....)
    -etc. etc.


What you will find is:

  1. Incredible gains over a certain periode of time through martingale or similar strategies.... hiding losses or not showing that in parallel 30 other demo accounts where blown during the same time.
  2. Incredible results of automated trading strategies for a limited period of time because the parameters fit that period extremly well..... but no strategy will work forever and it comes down to when to apply which strategy and when not.....and over a long enough period the edge of every system is leveled out..again. If not, the whole financial system would fall apart because all profits would end up in the hands of the owner of such a system.
  3. Impressive profits over a certain periode of time through pure luck.....and if smart, after the inital 400% run up based on luck (to lure in investors), a low risk strategy with far lower leverage and returns (or even negative returns) to lure in investors over a as long time as possible showing still an impressive longtherm profit..... Now you know why the financial industry loves the disclaimer "Past results are not indicative of future returns!"
  4. Single percentage returns with no or minor leverage, high capital base, rigoros money management..... Now you trade on the other end of the gamblers ruin theorem and you like the retail suckers as liquidity providers, because they are exactly the ones enabling your profits every time they are forced to take a loss due to high leverage. But in this case you are certainly not an interesting customer to a retail forex broker, because your volume is small (no leverage), your trade duration is long and you certainly found out that retail forex brokers to not offer attractiv conditions in implementing such a strategy and you get this cheaper through other financial tools......


The facts show it very clearly, you most likely won't find a venture with a worse future than retail forex. You just have to look through the marketing machine and there is enough independent information to prove my point.... maybe ask mingary for advice....won't hurt.

Now come an beat me.........

  • #203
  • May 17, 2016 3:02am May 17, 2016 3:02am
Quoting HudithePfupf
{quote} These numbers do only show the results after 3 months...... just three f....ing months! And each day someone takes them as proof....... what a joke! Do the math: Profitability after 3 months : 0.32 Prifitability after 6 months : 0.32^2 Profitability after 12 months : 0.32^4 Profitability after x months : 0.32^(x/3) Profitability afer 5 years : 0% ---- very often -80 to -100% And finally not to forget the profitablity after a SNB/ 15.01.2015 like event: Up to -1000%, fincancially ruined and in deep debt, since no stop loss does will protect...

  • #204
  • May 17, 2016 3:04am May 17, 2016 3:04am
Quoting HudithePfupf
{quote} These numbers do only show the results after 3 months...... just three f....ing months! And each day someone takes them as proof....... what a joke! Do the math: Profitability after 3 months : 0.32 Prifitability after 6 months : 0.32^2 Profitability after 12 months : 0.32^4 Profitability after x months : 0.32^(x/3) Profitability afer 5 years : 0% ---- very often -80 to -100% And finally not to forget the profitablity after a SNB/ 15.01.2015 like event: Up to -1000%, fincancially ruined and in deep debt, since no stop loss does will protect...
Nice post! (No "beating" from me.)
  • #205
  • May 17, 2016 3:09am May 17, 2016 3:09am
Quoting rnsfrd
Forex and trading will always be one of the hardest things to do no matter what. I think however that the reason most people don't believe in success is that they never really find something that works FOR THEM, and not for anyone else. Once traders are succesful they seem to sway from these kinds of forums mostly because it really is hard to explain how you see the markets in a way that everyone else can see. I think if you really want to have a future in forex you need to examine yourself first before you even look at a system. If you are an impatient...

Nothing to do with time frames.
Time frames is another BS.
  • #206
  • Edited 5:42am May 17, 2016 4:11am | Edited 5:42am
Quoting HudithePfupf
{quote} These numbers do only show the results after 3 months...... just three f....ing months! And each day someone takes them as proof....... what a joke! Do the math: Profitability after 3 months : 0.32 Prifitability after 6 months : 0.32^2 Profitability after 12 months : 0.32^4 Profitability after x months : 0.32^(x/3) Profitability afer 5 years : 0% ---- very often -80 to -100% And finally not to forget the profitablity after a SNB/ 15.01.2015 like event: Up to -1000%, fincancially ruined and in deep debt, since no stop loss will protect you...
Those figures get released quarterly and they are consistant. So are you going to tell me that retail traders profit 30% for ONLY the 1st 3 months then some how loose it all then a new bunch take over??? Sound far fetched to me.

Please provide me with some other verified figures that show 99% of RT loose. You wont because its all speculation. And who do you think come up with these figures. You got it every forex coach and system seller course seller ect... And why do they say only 95% of retail traders make it because they want you to join their course.

The fx markets dont and never have existed for retail traders and its a zero sum game because it was never initially there to profit from. The main players in the fx markets are cooperations and they use the market to hedge against their imports/exports. Banks and central banks use it to balance their books arbitrage and a very small percentage for speculation.

The market is not designed to take out pocket change.
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #207
  • May 17, 2016 4:19am May 17, 2016 4:19am
Quoting bartlby37
Yes I know about the MT4 plug-in........
Thanks for your comprehensive reply. The forexmagnates data in your link has been discussed many times before.
  • #208
  • May 17, 2016 6:02am May 17, 2016 6:02am
Quoting GibsonL6
{quote} Actually my prominent theme is the words" Retail Forex"... Even though the odds are heavily stacked against you, this market continues to grow, simply because of smart marketing. Failure rates stats seem to range from 95% to 99.9%, but until there's absolute proof of even one veteran trader showing an overall profit in the long term, my belief stays at 100%. That being said>>>>Why on earth would you want to expose yourself to that kind of risk, knowing full well there's a 95% to 99.9% chance, that the only thing at the end of the rainbow...
this member can soon show up as a sucesful option or stocks trader dont spend your time here.but if you cant trade then its good for you to be seen as trader posting forum pages but cant trade
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  • #209
  • May 17, 2016 7:19am May 17, 2016 7:19am
Quoting HudithePfupf
{quote} These numbers do only show the results after 3 months...... just three f....ing months! And each day someone takes them as proof....... what a joke! Do the math: Profitability after 3 months : 0.32 Prifitability after 6 months : 0.32^2 Profitability after 12 months : 0.32^4 Profitability after x months : 0.32^(x/3) Profitability afer 5 years : 0% ---- very often -80 to -100% And finally not to forget the profitablity after a SNB/ 15.01.2015 like event: Up to -1000%, fincancially ruined and in deep debt, since no stop loss will protect you...
This is the best written post, I have ever seen on the reality of FX !!
Read it over, and over, and over again...and if it still doesn't sink in....read it over, and over, and over again!

At the very least,print this out in hard copy and save it in your note books, because someday when you all finally realize that FX is a waste of time, you might read it again, and wished someone would have slapped you in the back of the head, and told you to smarten up!!!
  • #210
  • May 17, 2016 7:43am May 17, 2016 7:43am
Quoting vasily
{quote} this member can soon show up as a sucesful option or stocks trader dont spend your time here.but if you cant trade then its good for you to be seen as trader posting forum pages but cant trade {image} {image}

LOL
Says, the King of demo

PS: I hope you have no problems at the time to withdraw the demo profit.
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  • #211
  • May 17, 2016 8:03am May 17, 2016 8:03am
Quoting seahorse
{quote} LOL Says, the King of demo PS: I hope you have no problems at the time to withdraw the demo profit. {image}
hi horse,can you connect your account demo/live so we can see how good trader you are can you?
you are horsing around and no idea what trading is forum troll wannbe trader
  • #212
  • May 17, 2016 8:08am May 17, 2016 8:08am
Quoting vasily
{quote} hi horse,can you connect your account demo/live so we can see how good trader you are can you? you are horsing around and no idea what trading is forum troll wannbe trader
and by the way if forex factory fix the problems ı tell in my thread about trade explorer ı can connect my live account too.actually ı am planning to connect my live to myfxbook cuz its more secure and have more privacy options

hey horse

may 14-2016
Quoting vasily
hi moderator @twee Twee my idea is,if ff wants more live trade explorers,so the folowing things can fixed a-commodities and indicies are not showing pip value and that effect average trade pip value and this can show a trader as a lot size trader cuz sometimes if trader trade commodities and indicies average trade pips can be negative b-open trades can be hidden by the member.may be trader dont want to show running trades to public c-follow or subcribe button can be add to trade explorer to folow d-trade history can be hidden cuz may be member dont want to give tips about system greenpips {image}
  • #213
  • May 17, 2016 8:20am May 17, 2016 8:20am
Quoting vasily
{quote} hi horse,can you connect your account demo/live so we can see how good trader you are can you? you are horsing around and no idea what trading is forum troll wannbe trader
No, I'm a loser like you and everybody else around here.

The difference is I know how this game is playing ... thats why I know we dont have a chance.

Knowledge and reliable information is what you need and money of course.

In your case you dont have any.
In my case. missing reliable information and money.


PS: I know you will not understand
  • #214
  • May 17, 2016 8:33am May 17, 2016 8:33am
Quoting seahorse
{quote} No, I'm a loser like you and everybody else around here. The difference is I know how this game is playing ... thats why I know we dont have a chance. Knowledge and reliable information is what you need and money of course. In your case you dont have any. In my case. missing reliable information and money. PS: I know you will not understand
ı know every excuse about why one cant connect trade explorer have a good day

Inserted Video
  • #215
  • May 17, 2016 8:35am May 17, 2016 8:35am
Quoting vasily
{quote} ı know every excuse about why one cant connect trade explorer have a good day https://youtu.be/HeIbYcyDMNc?t=8m35s
Inserted Video
  • #216
  • Edited 8:53am May 17, 2016 8:35am | Edited 8:53am
You want a piece of advice? Follow Vasily and don't hate. Try and figure out what he or she is doing. He or she is sharing more than I would ever. But hey, don't listen to me another dumb ass demo trader. Choice is yours. The quotes posted from the member are worth a read if that's all you get from them. Good luck....

My favorite... Never jump in front of a moving train...

Swollen Pockets 4Ever!

Quoting seahorse
{quote} No, I'm a loser like you and everybody else around here. The difference is I know how this game is playing ... thats why I know we dont have a chance. Knowledge and reliable information is what you need and money of course. In your case you dont have any. In my case. missing reliable information and money. PS: I know you will not understand
SPC * Swollen PocketZ Crew!
  • #217
  • May 17, 2016 8:41am May 17, 2016 8:41am
Quoting JoeNY
You want a piece of advice. Follow Vasily and don't hate. Try and figure out what he or she is doing. He or she is sharing more than I would ever. But hey, don't listen to me another dumb ass demo trader. Choice is yours. The quotes posted from the member are worth a read if that's all you get from them. Good luck.... My favorite... Never jump in front of a moving train... Swollen Pockets 4Ever! {quote}
LOL

PS: I don't hate. I'm telling the reality
  • #218
  • May 17, 2016 8:51am May 17, 2016 8:51am
Quoting GibsonL6
Actually my prominent theme is the words" Retail Forex"... Even though the odds are heavily stacked against you, this market continues to grow, simply because of smart marketing. Failure rates stats seem to range from 95% to 99.9%, but until there's absolute proof of even one veteran trader showing an overall profit in the long term, my belief stays at 100%.
The high rate of failure has less to do with the traded instrument and more to do with the people trading it. Retail Forex trading just so happens to attract a vast number of people who are inclined to fail. The currency markets don't inherently have something against particular people, its just that the access to high leverage and the ability to trade on a shoestring account attracts the worst of the investing public; the reckless, the stupid, the gamblers and the desperate.

Individual success or failure can be predicted:
- People who have been successful in life tend to be successful at trading and will likely continue to be successful at whatever they set their mind on.
- People who have been unsuccessful and are attracted to forex trading for the worst reasons will find no respite from failure and will probably continue to fail at future endeavours.

I don't mean to sound harsh, its just that some people are naturally inclined towards failure while some are inclined towards success.

'Retail Forex' is not the cause of failure, its merely a medium through which people can succeed or fail depending on their individual ability. Of course, as mentioned earlier, low entry barriers and access to leverage attracts the worst of the sucker-class. It is no wonder that a large majority of retail traders succeed in losing lots of money.
Quote
That being said>>>>Why on earth would you want to expose yourself to that kind of risk, knowing full well there's a 95% to 99.9% chance, that the only thing at the end of the rainbow will be at best.....your empty pockets...and at worst....a ruined life.
How kind of you to be so thoughtful of a random stranger on the internet.

I do not identify with the self-styled "Forex Traders" on FF and I find nothing but disagreement with most of such people.

I cannot understand the obsession and drama that accompanies "Forex" and I'm utterly unimpressed when people start arguing about how Forex markets are rigged or Forex brokers cheat or Forex this or Forex that.

Positions in currencies take up less than 30% of my total market exposure and a far lesser percentage of my total portfolio value... Oh wait, whats that? Grain Commodities are rigged?!
  • #219
  • May 17, 2016 8:53am May 17, 2016 8:53am
Quoting JoeNY
You want a piece of advice. Follow Vasily and don't hate. Try and figure out what he or she is doing. He or she is sharing more than I would ever. But hey, don't listen to me another dumb ass demo trader. Choice is yours. The quotes posted from the member are worth a read if that's all you get from them. Good luck.... My favorite... Never jump in front of a moving train... Swollen Pockets 4Ever! {quote}
let him play in the mudd
  • #220
  • May 17, 2016 8:54am May 17, 2016 8:54am


Quoting vasily
{quote} let him play in the mudd
SPC * Swollen PocketZ Crew!
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