EURUSD MultiTimeFrame

Looking to sell EURUSD. Mixed signals today and trading range likely, but breakouts can be strong precisely because of mixed timeframe signals. Looking to trade 5MIN chart based on bear trend on the highest timeframes.

UPDATE: stopped out from Low3 short twice at BE, but re-entered nervously at market at a bad price. Seeing this as a tight trading range and a bear wedge flag, an inside-outside-inside bear Low4 setup, a risky trade given tight trading range.

UPDATE: scalp in, BE position in.
UPDATE: stopped out BE, will wait and see.

Been busy with other work for a while. Today looks like selling pressure has built up in the opening range, looking to sell any rallies.

Seeing trendline test on 5min, but in an expanding range/channel, amid some large bars. On H1, it's a re-test of a previous congestion area, so might go down if this is just a retest. The last three bars are overlapping on H1, meaning range conditions are setting in, so surprise moves likely in either direction. Looking to sell rather than buy because of the HTF downtrends.

UPDATE: 1 was a very weak signal bar, overlapping previous bars, so added to the short for the trendline break.
UPDATE: Scalp in, tighter stops in.
UPDATE: Seeing tight bear channel in play. Looking to add to the short on first break of bear trendline, around bar 4 high if it goes there.
UPDATE: Bar 1 breakout closes below Bar 3, must follow through or exit. Tightened stops to lock in profit.
UPDATE: Bar 6, bear channel line overshoot, reaches bear measured move target, could stop here, scaled out some.
UPDATE: tempted to stay in this short because of the gap on bar 5 -- the low of bar 4 and high of bar 6 formed what could be seen as a mid-trend measuring gap (the first breakaway gap can be seen on the fourth bar at the start of the bear channel.
UPDATE: added to the short on the first break of the bear tight channel as bar 8 closed, tightened stops to all out if the gap is closed.
UPDATE: stopped out of all positions with profit. Will take a break now.

Re-entered the short on the same premise from the previous trend: an anticipated Low 2 from the bear tight channel break and Double Top bear flag with bar 4 high. Stops very tight.
UPDATE: Stopped out BE, but re-entered for the last attempt. Will ditch this trade idea if it goes any higher.
UPDATE: took a 5 pip scalp and leaving it to swing if it will into the pm session. Taking a break.

A little multitimeframe analysis.
Weekly EU: we have a decent reversal bar on the weekly chart at the top of a range. A strong breakout below low of last week, 1.3858 could produce a good selloff, and it looks that's what the bears a trying to do.
Daily: a quite strong bull channel, with little selling pressure and five consecutive bull days prior to the current pullback to the MA. Bulls likely waiting to fade selloffs to the MA (1.3700) or below, to drive for a retest of the high of last week.
H1: Clearly still Always-In Short, bears trying to break horizontal support, and no strong bull reversal bars yet, though buying pressure emerging in the current tight range.
M15: Start of day was bullish, and first break of Low of Friday/Last week failed, bulls got three clean scalps, after which two Outside Down selloffs followed, reversing early bull into a range, but no clear bear trend yet. Seccond attempt to break LOLW in progress, bears seemingly still in control.
M5: 1st observation is that bulls got neat scalps off Lows A, B, D -- at the same or worse price -- indicating that bulls might be accumulating below those prices and driving above them. Selloff from D, however, broke the bull channel, which was quite wide, leading to a wider range on the day. The 32-pip measured move targe for C Leg=E Leg for the bears would be 1.372, the measured move for the E bear spike is 1.375. Sidelined bulls likely waiting at 1.3700.

Trade ideas: since some bears will be exiting at measured move targets around 1.372 and 1.375 and bulls may be waiting just below or may be stepping in front of those targets, will be looking to buy a sell climax.

Bar 1: 2nd Failure of bear Tight Channel Line Breakout. Reverses three pushes down (Wedge), but overlaps previous bars in tight channel, not a good signal, wait.
2: BO of bear TL, but bear doji, not strong for bulls.
4: Two Legged PB to MA, Two Bar Reversal, but tails on bottom, Buying Pressure.
5: Low 2 entry after bear Tight Chanel Break, also Entry Bar on Bar 4 2BR, and Breakout Test of breakout on Bar 1. See if bulls are buying the Breakout Test. There was initial byuing but quickly reversed within bar 6 still in progress.
8: Outside Up bar off 1.375, hesitated and missed the entry, nevermind. A good reversal bar for the entire tight range, but still at top of the range, will look to enter Buy on pullback or chase on tick chart.
10: Bought pullback, but too late, trapped, bar 10 bear close, though doji.
11: A Two Bar Reversal and High 1 on the bull breakout, but doji tails.
12: another doji, bear, no entry triggered for the bulls, scratched, -3.7 pips.
13: Bar 12 was Inside Bar, tight rage, bar 13 was breakout, immediately went beyond measured move
14: Test of bar 11 low in tight range, buying active on tick chart, re-entered Buy.

Today 1.37 was finally tested, with what looks like some accumulation at that level, so decided to play long on the same premise as yesterday.

On H1, the reversal bar at low A reversed a tight range very nicesly and also sort of reversed the bear channel which was full of overlapping price action, hence a range, and was followed by a decent entry bar and two follow through bars with bull closes, so may be switching to Always-In Long, though still questionable before the bear trendline is broken.

stopped out of swing portion (scalp in), but re-entered as a bear TL breakout pullback.

- stopped out for -10 pips.

On H1, bulls broke out above the bear TL, which had been tester and retested before, including a strongish false breakout. This could lead to more up on the day. We had Inside-Outside-Inside bull bars on the H1, hence Breakout Mode, and the first breakout to the downside currently seeming to fail. If there is bull Follow Through, there could be a move up at least to the high of the day and possibly top of the range (High Yesterday).

What I see on M5 -- imho bulls pretty keen today, could test at least the top of the wide bull channel, perhaps drive a measured move up if higher timeframe bears start adjusting their positions.

Added to the long.

1: inside doji pause bar, first leg over, tightened stops to stay positive.

2: second Bear Close ina row, but doji, bear Micro Channel, weak, also a High 1 for bulls.
3: strong Entry Bar on High 1, going for the tops?

4: a Bear Reversal Bar, but bull Close, not a signal to take. Plus in strong Bull Tight Channel. Took scalp profit at top of channel, leaving swing entry on, perhaps scale in lower as Spike and Channel may form.
5: a 2-Bar Reversal, a stronger bear Signal
6: produced immediate strong Entry Bar, fade Buy at Duelling Lines, but not looking good.

7: Bear Follow Through, Close on Low, Bear Spike to MA, exited swing portion, last entry trapped, eventually stopped out.
8: Bear Close at MA, but tails on top and bottom, two sided small range. Re-entered Long/
9: adjusting stops to below the strong Shaved Bull Bar, if bulls are strong should not allow more than a breakout test.

10: At Breakout Test, Scaled in Long, exited higher entries near BE, volatility picks up.
11: stopped out of the lower entry too, still wanted to be long and re-entered, probably an emotional mistake... wait to see.
11: Outside Up, reversing Tight Trading Range at MA, Close Near High, good for bulls, second entry on High One of Bar 9.
12: Follow Through on Second Entry High One, scalp in, swing from BE.

13: Stop Run, stopped out around BE, faded the selloff, but no recoil, took a loss.
14:Reversed to Sell, took a loss, Reversed to Buy again, BE position in, but then stopped out. Too much volatility, too many emotions, will take a break.

a little follow up: decided to stand by the long trade idea and re-entered and left it to play out with a wider stop, and it did nicely.

On H1, it's testing the current range top as expected, and imho has the potential to go to 1,47 as we see a nicely rounded bottom with decent accumulation. Of course, it can reverse at any time, too, because it is still s bear trend technically.

Yesterday closed as an inside bar on the daily chart, and a small one against a big down bar -- an Inside Bar is a Breakout Mode indicator, and the question is which way is it gonna go? Bulls are buying today because they saw the minimum Measured Move target of the bears met. Bodies Only AB move = CD move with tails included. But this looks just like a scalp only for early bull grabbers.

To me this likes like Always In direction switching to Always In Short. As the price dipped below 1.1319, there was no immediate recoil. Actually there was some chasing and scaling in from the bears yesterday later in the day. Consider all the previously weak bear positions from days 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6. They had been trapped and have now had ample opportunities to exit at break even or even in profit. Likely today's bull spike is just that -- adjustment of bear positions. So I would be looking for short entries today. when the buying subsides. Tried early fades, one loss and one good scalp, and looking to re-enter short today on the bull channel break or trend channel line break.

On M5, seeing a bull spike and channel, and so far the bulls seem eager to step in front of the trendline in the channel, perhaps too early to sell.

Shorted the first TCL touch.