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  • #12,961
  • May 17, 2016 2:26am May 17, 2016 2:26am
Quoting ChinaTraderz
Hi mate, Actually I have been following this thread for quite some time. Can I know how is your performance so far? Roughly how large you are trading in your account now? Interested to manage larger fund if I am able to help you? But I need some figures before we can proceed further.
Hey China, yes I remember you. I'm doing ok, not looking for any help. .......Happy Trades.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,962
  • Edited 1:37pm May 17, 2016 2:36am | Edited 1:37pm
Quoting The Fool
The Jun4/Jul1 $15/$20 DC gets on for <25c .... sets you up perchance to catch a nice move either way in the aftermath of the Brexit vote ...
.....watching equities rally with oil and ^vix to bleed accordingly.....I like the DC noted and could see putting on a good sized trade there.......if the rally keeps going, VXX options will get cheaper and you can put on a $5 DC spread for 20c or less. Instead of shooting wad at one spread $15/$20 I might spread em out $17/22, $14/19, $18/23.......the goal will be to catch a sweet finish on one of the calendars and cash it in on 6/23 or 6/24, bank those proceeds to cover some of the debits from the DC's......then, where possible, let the calendars run out into strangles for the following week......also looking now at a little wider time - Jun/Jul1, so as to bracket the FOMC/Brexit combo.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,963
  • May 17, 2016 2:46am May 17, 2016 2:46am
Quoting The Fool
.....also looking now at a little wider time - Jun/Jul1, so as to bracket the FOMC/Brexit combo.....
...costs about double for extra week - but you get what you pay for......max move for VXX in a week is $5-6, might be a plan to give a chance to stack those up.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,964
  • May 17, 2016 3:18am May 17, 2016 3:18am
Quoting The Fool
{quote}Hey China, yes I remember you. I'm doing ok, not looking for any help. .......Happy Trades.
Nice. Usually trader that have consistent like you seldom want to receives other funds. Understand that. Actually, it is place which I am working with. If really have good results with some nice figures due to strict money management, I can recommend you to my company. No prob, happy trading and enjoy life.
  • #12,965
  • May 17, 2016 3:26am May 17, 2016 3:26am
actually, I like the idea of paying for more time, but it might only be worth it on the call side.....of course, it'd be just my luck to gamble on somethin asymmetrical and then be on the opposite side of what happens......anyway, it's still a ways to June opex, but there might not be so much time to get into VXX positions cheap. If you have $4k to risk, the double calendar shotgun shown below will prolly bring something back on a calendar finish but also has potential to put you in a 1-week or 2-week strangle across a deceent range.......the wetdream is you get in all 100 lots long VXX calls avg around $20, then you catch the Brexit shock ride up to $25-$30 the following week, paying $10k for every $1 gain......
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,966
  • May 17, 2016 9:30am May 17, 2016 9:30am
Decided to dip my toe in the water with a VXX calendar spread:
- sold Jun17 17 Call
- bought Jul01 17 Call
- cost 35c

Small position because I'm still a bit rusty. The main objective is to profit from any big moves after Brexit, by which time the long 17 call will be untethered and good to go. I only sold the Jun17 to reduce the cost. Not too bothered about an opposite direction move at the moment, but may add another spread later for that.

Hoping I've not made any newbie errors with this approach. Please let me know if so!
You reap what you sow.
  • #12,967
  • May 17, 2016 10:00am May 17, 2016 10:00am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
A touch of premium selling farther out in time than I usually like to go, but VIX is sub-15 ... IWM July 15th 101/104/117/120 iron condor Proabability of Profit: 57% P50: 71% (Probability of Reaching 50% of Max Profit Before Expiry) Max Profit: $93/contract Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $207/contract Theta: 1.07/contract Delta: -3.56 I looked at all of the index ETF's -- SPY, QQQ, DIA, and IWM. IWM's IV approaches 20% nearer in time than the others. I was nearly able to squeeze one-third the width of the wings out of the thing, but didn't want to...
Cancelled the July 15th IWM IC out to go nearer in time (38 DTE) on this vol pop here:

IWM June 24th 102.5/106/115.5/119 iron condor
POP: 61%
P50: 67%
Max Profit: $107/contract
Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $243/contract
Theta: 1.89/contract
Delta: -4.72 contract
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,968
  • May 17, 2016 10:04am May 17, 2016 10:04am
Quoting NorthTrader
Decided to dip my toe in the water with a VXX calendar spread: - sold Jun17 17 Call - bought Jul01 17 Call - cost 35c Small position because I'm still a bit rusty. The main objective is to profit from any big moves after Brexit, by which time the long 17 call will be untethered and good to go. I only sold the Jun17 to reduce the cost. Not too bothered about an opposite direction move at the moment, but may add another spread later for that. Hoping I've not made any newbie errors with this approach. Please let me know if so!
i'M TRYINg to fill variety of VXX spreads with Jul1 strikes....slow fills cuz those are still thin......
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,969
  • May 17, 2016 10:27am May 17, 2016 10:27am
Quoting The Fool
actually, I like the idea of paying for more time, but it might only be worth it on the call side.....of course, it'd be just my luck to gamble on somethin asymmetrical and then be on the opposite side of what happens......anyway, it's still a ways to June opex, but there might not be so much time to get into VXX positions cheap. If you have $4k to risk, the double calendar shotgun shown below will prolly bring something back on a calendar finish but also has potential to put you in a 1-week or 2-week strangle across a deceent range.......the wetdream...
I think I went for the "paying for more time"/"paying for wider" route with those diagonals, the back month of which the setups I've got on is September. I went fairly deep in the money long call and have been rolling the short call to the 75% or so probability OTM strike every 30 days or so. It's all fine and dandy, but they were pricey to put on ($4-$5/contract). There is probably a lesson there in terms of capital efficiency, one of which is to look for a narrower setup on those when VIX/VXX derivatives are at an extreme (i.e., VIX sub 13) and look for a nearer in time back month. Waiting for VIX sub-13 to be your signal to "pull the trigger" requires patience, though.

I think when I initiated those, the back month was like 5, 6 months out from the front. That's maybe a touch "overboard" in terms of time, but I wanted something I could work continuously without too much hassle over time and without legging into and out of stuff repeatedly, so I guess there are pluses and minuses with those setups ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,970
  • May 17, 2016 10:31am May 17, 2016 10:31am
Quoting The Fool
{quote}i'M TRYINg to fill variety of VXX spreads with Jul1 strikes....slow fills cuz those are still thin......
I haven't yet tried to dabble in July ... . I wanted to get more on with one of these sub-15 dips in VXX, but it keeps "bobbing to the surface" ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,971
  • May 17, 2016 11:39am May 17, 2016 11:39am
the stawk mawket is brawken
Inserted Video
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,972
  • May 17, 2016 11:54am May 17, 2016 11:54am
Quoting NorthTrader
Decided to dip my toe in the water with a VXX calendar spread: - sold Jun17 17 Call - bought Jul01 17 Call - cost 35c
NorthT I did the Jun 24/Jul 1 $17 puts calendar for 14c. I want to have something on for a ^VIX drop after the Brexit vote, in case that's a flop and the markets rally. I am filling the VXX "shotgun" for the Jun FOMC/Brexit combo, as shown above......gonna be epic.....

....meanwhile I am still rolling down Jun 17 UVXY calls, rolling into the $20's and trying to pay 5c-6c on the $1 spread, short legs are untouched and still out there @ $45 +/-.....if/when ^vix ever pops I might roll those down a tad to get something back.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,973
  • May 17, 2016 11:56am May 17, 2016 11:56am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} Cancelled the July 15th IWM IC out to go nearer in time (38 DTE) on this vol pop here: IWM June 24th 102.5/106/115.5/119 iron condor POP: 61% P50: 67% Max Profit: $107/contract Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $243/contract Theta: 1.89/contract Delta: -4.72 contract
Tweaked the setup a bit to a 102.5/105.5/115/118; filled for $99/contract.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,974
  • May 17, 2016 12:10pm May 17, 2016 12:10pm
For some reason, I'm on a brief premium selling kick, as I like to keep a bit of theta on decaying away. One of the few earnings this season that has met my 70 IVR/50 IV criteria -- the Gap. It announces on Thursday, but I'm going to try to get a fill on a 45 DTE straddle here, because I won't have time to fiddle with it later ... .

GPS July 1st 17.5 short straddle
POP%: 56% (these straddle's POP's always blow ... )
Max Profit: $208/contract
Max Loss/BPE: Undefined/$350/contract
Theta: 2.24/contract
Delta: -3.3/contract

I don't usually like to go 45 DTE on earnings plays, because you're looking for a quick volatility contraction over a shorter time frame. However, this is a straddle, which I generally like to give more time. Only shooting for 25% max profit, as the "landing pad" of profit is narrower for a straddle as compared to an iron condor or 1 SD short strangle ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,975
  • May 17, 2016 12:12pm May 17, 2016 12:12pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}NorthT I did the Jun 24/Jul 1 $17 puts calendar for 14c. I want to have something on for a ^VIX drop after the Brexit vote, in case that's a flop and the markets rally. I am filling the VXX "shotgun" for the Jun FOMC/Brexit combo, as shown above......gonna be epic..... ....meanwhile I am still rolling down Jun 17 UVXY calls, rolling into the $20's and trying to pay 5c-6c on the $1 spread, short legs are untouched and still out there @ $45 +/-.....if/when ^vix ever pops I might roll those down a tad to get something back.....
Nothing like "ladders" or "shotguns" ... . More pellets = greater likelihood of hitting the target with a "kill shot" ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,976
  • May 17, 2016 12:17pm May 17, 2016 12:17pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} Nothing like "ladders" or "shotguns" ... . More pellets = greater likelihood of hitting the target with a "kill shot" ... .
yes...and in the case of rising vol, the calendars will see their b/e's push out, so you don't have to hit the bullseye to make good money.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,977
  • May 17, 2016 1:58pm May 17, 2016 1:58pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
For some reason, I'm on a brief premium selling kick, as I like to keep a bit of theta on decaying away. One of the few earnings this season that has met my 70 IVR/50 IV criteria -- the Gap. It announces on Thursday, but I'm going to try to get a fill on a 45 DTE straddle here, because I won't have time to fiddle with it later ... . GPS July 1st 17.5 short straddle POP%: 56% (these straddle's POP's always blow ... ) Max Profit: $208/contract Max Loss/BPE: Undefined/$350/contract Theta: 2.24/contract Delta: -3.3/contract I don't usually like to go...
Didn't have to putz much ... . Filed for 2.05/contract ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,978
  • May 17, 2016 2:06pm May 17, 2016 2:06pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} yes...and in the case of rising vol, the calendars will see their b/e's push out, so you don't have to hit the bullseye to make good money.....
Can't beat the target getting wider after you pull the trigger ... . That won't happen trading spot or buying/selling underlyings directly (for you "old school" traders out there).
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,979
  • May 17, 2016 7:16pm May 17, 2016 7:16pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}i'M TRYINg to fill variety of VXX spreads with Jul1 strikes....slow fills cuz those are still thin......
Mine filled in the blink of an eye. Probably because I paid too much! I must say that it's a pleasure trading such liquids options though. Those CME FX options are very thin on the ground sometimes.
You reap what you sow.
  • #12,980
  • May 17, 2016 7:23pm May 17, 2016 7:23pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}NorthT I did the Jun 24/Jul 1 $17 puts calendar for 14c. I want to have something on for a ^VIX drop after the Brexit vote, in case that's a flop and the markets rally. I am filling the VXX "shotgun" for the Jun FOMC/Brexit combo, as shown above......gonna be epic.....
Yeah, thinking about some puts here too. I'm pretty long on the stock market already though with ETFs so it would just be greedy really. But in the name of practice... why the heck not

Is there any reason you're choosing Jun24 instead of Jun17? Volatility could be huge going into Brexit so I wanted to avoid that on the short side if possible. Maybe I needn't worry about it?

Rolling options is a whole new thing for me. Still go a lot of homework to do on those sites you mentioned TTFN
You reap what you sow.
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