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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #54,521
  • May 13, 2016 1:41pm May 13, 2016 1:41pm
Quoting indianguyinny24
{quote} Noted, Sizes will be adjusted as per the terrain. V


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regards
  • #54,522
  • May 13, 2016 1:54pm May 13, 2016 1:54pm
Quoting Jacque
{quote} nope, i have not been eating before bed. lol. maybe they trying show me things. next time, i'll sit a while with them.

yayaya eat just eat.
they show just watch.
no get excited and gets married to it.
just sit eat tea.
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regards

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  • #54,523
  • Edited 3:17pm May 13, 2016 2:45pm | Edited 3:17pm
and God the greatest creator.
created so much stuff for me explore.

and watch my ego.
it seems wants to own everything, it sees.
the big G word. greed
regards
  • #54,524
  • Edited 2:56pm May 14, 2016 2:20pm | Edited 2:56pm
ahhhh today i big sin.
had craving. went off course on the cafe.
no duku langsat. so bobo cha cha.

ai yo coconut, maybe get arteries jam.
ai ya i marine parade,
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ai yoi so much sugar. sweet tooth meh? hahahahhahaha banana.

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eeeer ya hor no kacang?

regards

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  • #54,525
  • Edited 4:21pm May 15, 2016 1:49pm | Edited 4:21pm
ruben7222
answer

hi
can you tell me the answer on this question?
"All technical indicators are lag reading of market footprint. There is a required intelligence to decript them for an opinion of the dance. Why does people allow themselves to use these as the holy grail? The question is why? The answer lies in those numbers and in "you"."
thank you
------------------------------------------------------------------
The real answer.
Is because humans are really predators.
is our nature.

The numbers and "you", the ego are the tools we use to the goals/our agenda.
.Our agenda is our creations for the purpose in life.
Otherwise life has no meaning.
We cannot accept life that has no meaning.
Only things we can accept of life that has no meaning is the sunlight and water.

For the question, of why. In the context of trading, that answer is accurate.
thank you for understanding.
regards
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  • #54,526
  • Edited 6:33pm May 16, 2016 12:05pm | Edited 6:33pm
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Ora et Labora
RIP uncle Yong mentor.
You will be missed.

regards
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  • #54,527
  • May 16, 2016 5:32pm May 16, 2016 5:32pm
We ascribe meaning because we can't accept that price just moves where it wants to (we are creatures that crave reasons for things). So Sales/research/trading needs some sort of reference for when we can't find a fundamental reason why there is a move (usually when a client asks or for morning commentary). It gives us just enough guts to pull the trigger, and it helps to justify our views (although they may be wrong). Then eventually the techs (I've found only 200DMA to be useful) becomes self-fulfilling just because more eyeballs are on it. But really, I don't know, it will be a different read in a week.

In other news, what a move in oil today! I came in the morning expecting commodity ccy's to weaken a bit (worse Chinese data, and skeleton crew in Europe, so not a bunch of news on Monday, so people naturally look at China as the explanation for morning moves). Obviously a big draw in last oil report likely due to Canadian fires, but I thought risk would be to supply this week given more eyeballs on the Saudi Prince after DOHA. Thoughts FTI? I'm thinking stronger USD (June and July pricing in about 4 and 7% chance of hike, I think it's too low). Overnight we can see JPY weaken agst the USD if the Japanese give lip service, also positive for USD. Then we also have brexit coming up (although now I hear bremain more often than I hear brexit), either way with the polls still up in the air, I think better to get into USD or CHF as safe havens, also making USD bull a good case.

Not sure what to make of oil just yet. I guess stronger oil now is the case, but I still think some news out of Libya or Saudi Arabia with additional supply will blind side us. Seems their long term goal is to gain market share rather than stay profitable in the near term.



Quoting fti
ruben7222 answer hi can you tell me the answer on this question? "All technical indicators are lag reading of market footprint. There is a required intelligence to decript them for an opinion of the dance. Why does people allow themselves to use these as the holy grail? The question is why? The answer lies in those numbers and in "you"." thank you ------------------------------------------------------------------ The real answer. Is because humans are really predators. is our nature. The numbers and "you", the ego are the tools we use to the goals/our...
  • #54,528
  • May 16, 2016 6:32pm May 16, 2016 6:32pm
Quoting fullperson
We ascribe meaning because we can't accept that price just moves where it wants to (we are creatures that crave reasons for things). So Sales/research/trading needs some sort of reference for when we can't find a fundamental reason why there is a move (usually when a client asks or for morning commentary). It gives us just enough guts to pull the trigger, and it helps to justify our views (although they may be wrong). Then eventually the techs (I've found only 200DMA to be useful) becomes self-fulfilling just because more eyeballs are on it. But...
eeer, you will only know the reason why the markets moved, after it has moved.
you try predict and you WILL pay the spreads.

Sorry i need to be alone for a little while.
ask again why some other day. sorry.

regards
  • #54,529
  • May 16, 2016 10:04pm May 16, 2016 10:04pm
Quoting fti
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oc3aUzVDdfM Ora et Labora RIP uncle Yong mentor. You will be missed. regards {image} {image}

RIP..

Take care FTI.

Rgds
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #54,530
  • May 17, 2016 12:58am May 17, 2016 12:58am
Quoting fti
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oc3aUzVDdfM Ora et Labora RIP uncle Yong mentor. You will be missed. regards {image} {image}
Hi fti

sorry for your loss my friend.

regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #54,531
  • May 17, 2016 1:08am May 17, 2016 1:08am
Quoting phil13
{quote} Hi fti sorry for your loss my friend. regards Phil.


regards
  • #54,532
  • Edited 2:38am May 17, 2016 1:30am | Edited 2:38am
Quoting fullperson
We ascribe meaning because we can't accept that price just moves where it wants to (we are creatures that crave reasons for things). So Sales/research/trading needs some sort of reference for when we can't find a fundamental reason why there is a move (usually when a client asks or for morning commentary). It gives us just enough guts to pull the trigger, and it helps to justify our views (although they may be wrong). Then eventually the techs (I've found only 200DMA to be useful) becomes self-fulfilling just because more eyeballs are on it. But...
Hi,
i was told is rather selfish of me, sit and sulk away.
So i thought it may be useful that i try to help you understand some basics again.
Make myself useful.

but i must say that i have no market positions.
so i not analysed anything.

but( 2nd) i thought i may be able help you realise that 2 fallacies, both technical and fundamental no makes an intelligent analysis.
1stly, If you like use 200 MAs as decision making process, you might as well join me walk about with a walking stick. But(3rd) is just my opinion.

2ndly , in so far as using news as a driver for your decision process, one must guard that one not commit the fallacy of using old information justify one's position exposure.

As you had demonstrated, your mind is dualistic in your analysis, with both pro and cons of outlook.
so it depends on what your mind bias is.
what ever that bias, you should be able find justification for a position view.
So all i can detect from what you are telling me is you have bias.

what i would like you ponder is this.
You are talking both ways, right? But what would be able help you with the insights to what is actually happening in markets?
of course you already know, the answer. Is price.
so whatever your mindset bias, i like suggest that you pay attention to what the bid and offers are doing.
That may hint you on what you actions should be, instead of argueing that the price may be manupilated.
Truth is the price is always manipulated by demand and supply and mostly in random walk mode until true dd/ss pushes for trend.

You think trend is up for oil, but you think supply can come on stream from stockist.
It is possible. You could be right or you could be wrong.
But i would suggest you not trade the ifs and if nots.
Be real, trade for profits.
Right or wrong not really matters.
Whats important is that you make profits, Loss is a bummer , even if you are right

Try find your market niche, listen to the market.
Stop talking to it. LISTEN and OBSERVE.

markets , they are more intelligent than any analyst.
In fact market is bigger than any analyst.
You don't want to argue with price. period.

Cut losses short and don't allow any profits run into a loss, just because your mind is bias/confused.
and NEVER ever believe my first price. I am always constantly testing the waters.


regards

I had been posting this song for as long as this thread.
still no one understands?
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how many ways is there sing a song?

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  • #54,533
  • Edited 3:28am May 17, 2016 2:48am | Edited 3:28am
Misora Hibari - Kawa no nagare no yō ni
(some lines' translation)

Like the flow of the river.
I want to calmly go with the flow
Forever
While listening to the blue bubbling stream.
  • #54,534
  • May 17, 2016 3:02am May 17, 2016 3:02am
hi fti

'quote'..... how many ways is there sing a song?

AOW..

7. There are not more than five musical notes, yet the combinations of these
five give rise to more melodies than can ever be heard.

8. There are not more than five primary colors (blue, yellow, red, white, and
black), yet in combination they produce more hues than can ever been
seen.

9. There are not more than five cardinal tastes (sour, acrid, salt, sweet, bitter),
yet combinations of them yield more flavors than can ever be tasted.

10. In battle, there are not more than two methods of attack–the direct and
the indirect; yet these two in combination give rise to an endless series of
maneuvers.

regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #54,535
  • May 17, 2016 3:14am May 17, 2016 3:14am
Quoting RelaxRay
{quote} RIP.. Take care FTI. Rgds


regards
  • #54,536
  • May 17, 2016 3:14am May 17, 2016 3:14am
Quoting Jupiter
Misora Hibari - Kawa no nagare no yō ni (some lines' traslation) Like the flow of the river. I want to calmly go with the flow Forever While listening to the blue bubbling stream.


regards
  • #54,537
  • May 17, 2016 3:16am May 17, 2016 3:16am
Quoting phil13
hi fti 'quote'..... how many ways is there sing a song? AOW.. 7. There are not more than five musical notes, yet the combinations of these five give rise to more melodies than can ever be heard. 8. There are not more than five primary colors (blue, yellow, red, white, and black), yet in combination they produce more hues than can ever been seen. 9. There are not more than five cardinal tastes (sour, acrid, salt, sweet, bitter), yet combinations of them yield more flavors than can ever be tasted. 10. In battle, there are not more than...


regards
  • #54,538
  • May 17, 2016 4:43am May 17, 2016 4:43am
Quoting fti
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oc3aUzVDdfM Ora et Labora RIP uncle Yong mentor. You will be missed. regards {image} {image}
Very sorry for your news. My neighbour she also died Friday - she was fighting similar (but much worse) battle than I had to and for a few years now - horrible.

We are lucky to have known such kind warm giving people - though it was not long enough

Regards

Alex.
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #54,539
  • May 17, 2016 5:24am May 17, 2016 5:24am
Quoting Jupiter
Misora Hibari - Kawa no nagare no yō ni (some lines' translation) Like the flow of the river. I want to calmly go with the flow Forever While listening to the blue bubbling stream.
... and make sure I do not drown.........

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #54,540
  • May 17, 2016 7:21am May 17, 2016 7:21am
my thoughts are with you, fti.
THE ALL is MIND; The Universe is Mental
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