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  • #161
  • May 16, 2016 5:05am May 16, 2016 5:05am
Quoting hanover
{quote}IMHO that's what also makes it so difficult. You could equally say "it's easy to predict the result of a coin toss, since there are only two possible outcomes". The issue is not merely the number of possible outcomes, it's how randomly those outcomes (uptick, downtick) are distributed. {quote} Randomness is the enemy. If manipulation creates non-random patterns, find out what these patterns are, and exploit them. However, if by "rigged" you mean that your br0ker is targeting you specifically with cheat tactics (delayed quotes, slippage, widening...
One way to prove a nonrandom event is to write a code which encompasses a supposed setup(pattern) that represents this nonrandom event.

My take is this can be done and this elusive nonrandom event packaged in a mathematical formula(s) is possible.
  • #162
  • May 16, 2016 5:07am May 16, 2016 5:07am
Quoting hanover
Randomness is the enemy. If manipulation creates non-random patterns, find out what these patterns are, and exploit them. However, if by "rigged" you mean that your br0ker is targeting you specifically with cheat tactics (delayed quotes, slippage, widening spreads to deliberately hit your SL, etc), then sure, that's a game you can't possibly win.
Hello, Hanover, how are you doing, buddy?

Exactly the same thing was mentioned at my post above, but somebody is unable even to understand the said here.

Best
D.P.
Hunting High and Low
  • #163
  • May 16, 2016 5:11am May 16, 2016 5:11am
Quoting bartlby37
{quote} There's a thought - find non random patterns to exploit {quote}
You thought is correct
It is the same thing actually.

Best
D.P.
Hunting High and Low
  • #164
  • May 16, 2016 5:12am May 16, 2016 5:12am
Quoting tunera
{quote} sorry, i misread "14" instead of "146". but post 146 is bullcrap too. stay away from people who ask you money for coaching or signals or chatrooms, if a trader is good he don't really need your 300usd monthly subscription to his coaching or chatroom, good traders don't care about money. seriously pal(s), if you want to learn how to trade you must spend more time trading and less time bullshitting on internet forums. just my 0.02
200%
Trade fearless not careless...
Syed Mohsin Ali Profit This Month: -766
  • #165
  • May 16, 2016 5:15am May 16, 2016 5:15am
Speaks for its self

http://www.financemagnates.com/forex...accounts-down/
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #166
  • May 16, 2016 5:15am May 16, 2016 5:15am
Quoting bartlby37
I've always been hugely suspicious of the idea of brokers targeting individual clients.....
It's never happened to me, as least not that I've been aware, in such a way that the evidence is obvious. Perhaps I'm too small to be a worthwhile target! Nonetheless, whether rightly or wrongly, there are plenty of complaints in the Broker Discussion forum. I'm also aware that software like virtual dealer plug-ins for MT4 does exist.
  • #167
  • May 16, 2016 5:15am May 16, 2016 5:15am
Quoting hanover
{quote}IMHO that's what also makes it so difficult. You could equally say "it's easy to predict the result of a coin toss, since there are only two possible outcomes". The issue is not merely the number of possible outcomes, it's how randomly those outcomes (uptick, downtick) are distributed. {quote} Randomness is the enemy. If manipulation creates non-random patterns, find out what these patterns are, and exploit them. However, if by "rigged" you mean that your br0ker is targeting you specifically with cheat tactics (delayed quotes, slippage, widening...
i will not start the endless debate of "is market random or is not random?", however, my point was that you start with a 50% chances of profit already, just by buying or selling without even watch a chart, you already got 50% possibility.

if you add to it the charts, the trends, the supports and resistances, the foundamental situation of the two currencies, you can have the opportunity to make some good investments.
  • #168
  • May 16, 2016 5:26am May 16, 2016 5:26am
What I find amusing is you can tell who is winning and who is loosing but I dont understand why the losers are on here complaining you cant make money on fx and those who say you can make money are liars. Why not just say "I cant do it" and find out why?
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #169
  • May 16, 2016 5:35am May 16, 2016 5:35am
Quoting skyway
{quote} Tell us the balance of your total investment(capital) in forex. What is your annual % returns? What is your max drawdown ? What is your max annual loss ? How many years have you traded profitably at this said annual % returns ? Without detail substantiated and verified info, any claims, implied or otherwise, means nothing or what's commonly known as B#@shit !
Then I call your post #126...

Quoting skyway
If after an entire year of trading, experienced veteran traders still cannot come out ahead at net profitable, this points to us how difficult trading profitably can be. That's the true message that needs to be told about forex trading that newbies need to hear. Traders lose their life savings, gets nowhere near profitable after years of dedicated learning and trying, and even lose it all after a number of profitable years. Traders take their lifes, broken homes and families as a result of failure is not uncommon. Even for the claims about being...
B#@shit ! Without detail substantiated and verified info, any claims, implied or otherwise, means nothing or what's commonly known as B#@shit ! (there using your own words)
  • #170
  • May 16, 2016 5:35am May 16, 2016 5:35am
So sentimental topic look at traders viewing now...
Trade fearless not careless...
Syed Mohsin Ali Profit This Month: -766
  • #171
  • Edited 6:02am May 16, 2016 5:40am | Edited 6:02am
Quoting tunera
{quote} i will not start the endless debate of "is market random or is not random?", however, my point was that you start with a 50% chances of profit already, just by buying or selling without even watch a chart, you already got 50% possibility.
Completely so!

Moreover, even doing the way mentioned, one can win, or not lose at least - the only thing matters is when to jump out of the market.

Best
D.P.
Hunting High and Low
  • #172
  • May 16, 2016 5:40am May 16, 2016 5:40am
Quoting merquise
{quote} Then I call your post #126... {quote} B#@shit ! Without detail substantiated and verified info, any claims, implied or otherwise, means nothing or what's commonly known as B#@shit ! (there using your own words)
So long as it's not you, you have the choice to call it B#@shit !

I prefer to call those who make claims in their post B#@shit !
  • #173
  • May 16, 2016 5:59am May 16, 2016 5:59am
5% of the whole foreign exchange market count as retail traders.
Who really thinks brokers are there just to take out pocket change?
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #174
  • May 16, 2016 6:07am May 16, 2016 6:07am
Quoting Rtm
{quote} gofuckyourself.com
There actually is a gofuckyourself.com website. Amazing.
  • #175
  • May 16, 2016 6:18am May 16, 2016 6:18am
Since we are talking about BS.
TA is BS
  • #176
  • May 16, 2016 8:28am May 16, 2016 8:28am
If you guys think you cannot make money from Forex because of brokers, then try currency futures which is strictly regulated. Even so, I don't think you have different result....

Forex vs. Currency Futures:
http://www.babypips.com/school/presc...s-futures.html
http://www.forexpeacearmy.com/commun...-market.14300/

Both have pros and cons and personally, I have decided to remain in Forex.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #177
  • Edited 9:41am May 16, 2016 9:20am | Edited 9:41am
Quoting GibsonL6
to advise anyone contemplating/ or trading, that sustainable long term income from FX is just a dream. I don't believe that 95% of retail traders fail...I feel its more like 100% fail, but that's just my opinion. For all the time/aggravation ect.. you need to spend to even have a remote chance of coming out ahead in the long run( which I think is unrealistic anyway), you would be far better off working at MacDonalds a couple days a week, at minimum wage, rather than trading FX.
Thank you for sharing, Gibson. The two prominent themes in your post, and in the replies here, seem to be regarding:
1. The notion of 'consistent profitability'.
2. The notion that the trading game is impossible to beat.
People seem to take sides here believing in 1. and not 2. or vice versa. I am here to offer my opinion on why the idea of 'consistent profitablility' is untenable but you can definitely put the odds in your favour to achieve profits over the long run.

1. The fallacy of the 'Consistently Profitable Trader'.
Firstly, let me get something out of the way, the terms 'consistent' and 'profitable' are subjective. What constitutes consistency and profitability differs from person to person, therefore, any discussion relating to how consistent profitability can be achieved is meaningless unless these terms are properly defined. Otherwise, people are really just "discussing" their own projected assumptions about a popular buzzword.

To discuss the idea we must establish:
a) The benchmark or index against which profitability is measured.
b) The length of time or rolling window to determine consistency.
c) The drawdowns in equity incurred in the interim.

Browsing FF, I see many people counting their future cars by fantasizing about returns that beat top hedge funds and are delivered on a monthly or even weekly basis. Of course, very few people even consider thinking about (c). But enough of my ranting, on to the main point:

The fallacy is committed when one states that: "Consistent Profitability is possible therefore I can become a Consistently Profitable trader."

The first part "Consistent Profitability is possible..." alludes to the fact that the desired outcome has been achieved before.
The second part "I can become a Consistently Profitable trader" is really expressing the belief that one can guarantee a future distribution of returns to match a predetermined ideal.

There are indeed many truthful accounts of actual traders who have achieved jaw-dropping performance figures. If you cherrypick carefully, you can find published track records of great returns over long multi-year rolling windows to match your ideal definition of 'consistent profitability' and thus justifying that it is possible. What people fail to realize is that these great speculators play a game of probabilities and that their winning streaks came at the behest of a force that is beyond their prediction or control. If you read their interviews or biographies, its quite clear that many of these traders themselves believe and would be the first to admit that past performance is not indicative of future results. They manage risk and take what the markets give. To mistake their performances as something that can be replicated and projected into the future with certainty is to disregard the dynamic nature of markets. In a coinflipping game, you can point to a long streak of wins and narrow down your observation window to claim that consistently winning is possible. Of course this has no bearing on the overall expectancy of the game or future distribution of wins and losses.

Well, thats quite a bit said, I'll save point (2); why a positive expectancy is possible in trading, for another day.
  • #178
  • May 16, 2016 10:43am May 16, 2016 10:43am
Quoting seahorse
If any retail trader thinks will receive a monthly salary for a living, by trading forex, are completely wrong. And if a retail trader, tells you that he/she live from (trading) forex, she/he is lying. For succeed in forex we need to have another way of income, or we will lose all the money quickly. That is why some traders have another way of income to pay the monthly expenses. A job * Coaching * Chat Rooms * Signals etc... *The problem here is the scam people ...



Well I'm still not making money simply because I don't have enough money to invest. All I can do right now is gambling with $200 just as a habit, not even a hobby. If I had invested as little as 3k and aimed at 5% month I would be profitable right now, I know I say I would but it's a matter of fact.
  • #179
  • May 16, 2016 11:31am May 16, 2016 11:31am
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
Hello, Hanover, how are you doing, buddy? Exactly the same thing was mentioned at my post above, but somebody is unable even to understand the said here. Best D.P.
All good thank you sir.

It seems that a lot gets misunderstood on trading forums. That's one reason why I don't take them as seriously as I once did. Another is because the word 'lose' is so frequently misspelled. LOL.

I would rather focus on my own trading than get involved in heated debates.

Anyway, good trading to you.
David

@tunera, @skyway: Thanks for your replies also.
_______________________

Quoting seahorse
TA is BS
Probably won't change your mind, but IMHO this post is worth a read.
  • #180
  • May 16, 2016 11:42am May 16, 2016 11:42am
Quoting hanover
{quote} All good thank you sir. It seems that a lot gets misunderstood on trading forums. That's one reason why I don't take them as seriously as I once did. Another is because the word 'lose' is so frequently misspelled. LOL. I would rather focus on my own trading than get involved in heated debates. Anyway, good trading to you. David
Thanks, David, All the best wishes to you as well. Be green.
D.P.
Hunting High and Low
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