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Trading stocks, ETF, commodities using options

  • #21
  • Edited 7:35pm Apr 18, 2016 6:37pm | Edited 7:35pm
NFLX dropped $18 an bounced back a little, we'll see what's what tomorrow. I won't be trading it....(sorry, that's a 1-min chart...)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #22
  • Apr 19, 2016 5:39am Apr 19, 2016 5:39am
Quoting The Fool
NFLX dropped $18 an bounced back a little, we'll see what's what tomorrow. I won't be trading it....
most of the time, the share price will follow thru on big earnings moves - I have a little bit loaded on the weekly $97/96.5 bear puts for 5c
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #23
  • Apr 19, 2016 7:13am Apr 19, 2016 7:13am
Quoting The Fool
{quote}well, you have lots of company. Most (>90%) stock pickers fail & lose money. We have been in a US stock market that is pretty much flat-lining - SnP ranging between roughly 1,900 and 2,100 for the last couple years - that's just a 10% range. Some big moves in there that were m/l impossible to predict. Hedge funds full of professional traders have been closing up shop at a record rate because they can't make money in this sideways market. Volatility is much easier to predict than direction. Options trading is about trading volatility. If you...
thefool. can you please explain what you used to know that NFLX will fall hard?
you were right, big drop today, but what study you used for your views?
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he, alone, was to blame for his losses in the zero-sum game
  • #24
  • Apr 19, 2016 9:55am Apr 19, 2016 9:55am
Quoting comoestas
thefool. can you please explain what you used to know that NFLX will fall hard? you were right, big drop today, but what study you used for your views?
I did not know, just saw the price run up steadily and figured it would take a really great earnings report to continue that. Often I have seen a hot stock that gets run up into earnings will fall hard after the ER, but anything can happen...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #25
  • Edited 4:03pm Apr 19, 2016 3:03pm | Edited 4:03pm
ok
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he, alone, was to blame for his losses in the zero-sum game
  • #26
  • Apr 21, 2016 1:33am Apr 21, 2016 1:33am
NFLX test result
buying out of the money put with a delta of of 30 before earning, made big return, even after the IV dropped.
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he, alone, was to blame for his losses in the zero-sum game
  • #27
  • Edited 2:14am Apr 21, 2016 1:58am | Edited 2:14am
So after you find a direction, based in what ever you use,buy the option with delta 30 to 35 and with over 4 month to expire.
you can take profits the next day or right the move until you see a reversal.

So next big winner could be WHR

$2.70
1st Quarter March 2016
Consensus: $2.71
Revenue: $4.68 Bil
Next earning report
Tuesday
Apr 26
6:00 AM ET

The IV is very low for the sept 175 put with a delta of 32
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he, alone, was to blame for his losses in the zero-sum game
  • #28
  • Apr 30, 2016 12:52am Apr 30, 2016 12:52am
I remember reading an article a while back about trading the IV on both calls & puts on individual stocks in the S&P500 when earnings was less than a month away. The trade would be both long a call and put option at the same strike price at the underlying price with the anticipation of IV increasing as earnings soon approached and then closing out (selling the options) a few days before earnings. The strategy was returning double to triple digit annual returns if memory serves me right.
  • #29
  • Apr 30, 2016 1:07am Apr 30, 2016 1:07am
Quick question, which broker is good, easy , cheap, for options?
  • #30
  • May 4, 2016 9:38am May 4, 2016 9:38am
new trade max risk 400 +
long puts gs 1 hour chart set up
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he, alone, was to blame for his losses in the zero-sum game
  • #31
  • May 4, 2016 9:46am May 4, 2016 9:46am
Quoting pd9000
Quick question, which broker is good, easy , cheap, for options?
i like ameritrade.
no so cheap,but i think they are good.
he, alone, was to blame for his losses in the zero-sum game
  • #32
  • May 14, 2016 3:32pm May 14, 2016 3:32pm
GS
my put could keep making money.
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he, alone, was to blame for his losses in the zero-sum game
  • #33
  • May 14, 2016 4:01pm May 14, 2016 4:01pm
WHR
the 175 put stil making money
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he, alone, was to blame for his losses in the zero-sum game
  • #34
  • May 15, 2016 4:24am May 15, 2016 4:24am
most sector moves the same way,i guess that just trading the SPY save you from beeing trading too much of the same market.
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he, alone, was to blame for his losses in the zero-sum game
  • #35
  • May 15, 2016 4:25am May 15, 2016 4:25am
2
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he, alone, was to blame for his losses in the zero-sum game
  • #36
  • May 15, 2016 4:26am May 15, 2016 4:26am
3
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he, alone, was to blame for his losses in the zero-sum game
  • #37
  • May 15, 2016 4:28am May 15, 2016 4:28am
4
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he, alone, was to blame for his losses in the zero-sum game
  • #38
  • May 15, 2016 4:29am May 15, 2016 4:29am
5
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he, alone, was to blame for his losses in the zero-sum game
  • #39
  • May 15, 2016 4:30am May 15, 2016 4:30am
6
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he, alone, was to blame for his losses in the zero-sum game
  • #40
  • May 15, 2016 4:31am May 15, 2016 4:31am
7
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he, alone, was to blame for his losses in the zero-sum game
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