Low Risk, High Reward Trading Experiment

Friday August 24 11:30 ET

Re-entry opportunity TS#150A Buy EUR/USD at 1.2778

Stop is 1.2759

Target is 1.2950

Risk is 21 pips

Reward is 170 pips

Reward : Risk Ratio is 8.1 to 1
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Previous trade signal:

Friday August 24 8:30 ET
TS# 50 Buy EUR/USD at 1.2810
Stop is 1.2788
Target is 1.2950
Risk is 24 pips
Reward is 138 pips
Reward : Risk Ratio is 5.8 to 1

For research purposes only.

TS#153A Re-enter Sell USD/CHF at 1.2375 to 1.2385

Stop is 1.2408

Target #1 is 1.2200

Risk is max. 38 pips

Reward is min. 171 pips

Reward : Risk Ratio is 4.5 to 1 to 6.5 to 1 (depending on entry price)

For research purposes only.

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Previous Trade Signal:

Friday August 24 11:15 ET

TS# 153 Sell USD/CHF at 1.2363
Stop is 1.2378
Target #1 is 1.2200
Risk is 19 pips
Reward is 159 pips
Reward : Risk Ratio is 8.4 to 1

For research purposes only.

Friday August 24 8:30 ET

TS# 151A Re-Enter Buy GBP/USD at 1.8876

Stop is 1.8855

Target is 1.9040

Risk is 24 pips

Reward is 161 pips

Reward : Risk Ratio is 6.7 to 1

For research purposes only.

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Previous trade signal:

Friday August 24 8:30 ET

TS# 151 Buy GBP/USD at 1.8920
Stop is 1.8898
Target is 1.9040
Risk is 25 pips
Reward is 117 pips
Reward : Risk Ratio is 4.7 to 1

For research purposes only.

OK, so we all know what it says throughout the entire post: This is a test. Don't use this, he just wants feedback.

But we also know that people ARE using it as a basis for their own trades. Perhaps not as a perfect marker, but as a way-shower.

The first 39 trades were phenomenal. I've been waiting to see what the next ones do.

Is there ANYTHING, Itme, to show how you've done overall? Besides newbies who want to trade without stops and complain about the freebies you've given them, what is the perecntage, how are you doing?

Waited long enough. Gotta know.

Friday August 24 at 20:00 ET

TS #154 Sell USD/JPY at 116.74

Stop is 116.91

Target #1 is 115.30

Target #2 is 114.90

Risk is 20 pips

Reward is min 141 pips

Reward : Risk ratio is 7.0 to 1 or 9.0 to 1

For research purposes only

...if I sounded lerky or judgemental, sorry. I am just Soooooooo curious. Seems like you've done great!

Dear Jason Guillen,

Thanks for your interest, and curiousity.

You say, "OK, so we all know what it says throughout the entire post: This is a test. Don't use this, he just wants feedback. ..." etc.

We never asked for feedback. This is our trading journal. It is for us. You can do with it as you please, obviously. If you don't like it, then ignore it.

It would be irresponsible for us to parade out the performance results at this stage, as the system is not fixed yet. So, whether good or not, it doesn't matter. We could easily produce a number, but we won't. You can if you want. It won't matter to us. The original analysis indicated promise. That's all. Any system can perform well for a few trades. But only a rare system can perform consistently.

Good trading to you. Be careful. Currency trading is one of the most challenging activities.

Itme

TS #146A EUR/CAD short trade update

Target of 1.4150 met August 24 at 16:30 ET
<hr style="color: rgb(209, 209, 225);" size="1"><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message --> Previous trade signals:

Wednesday, August 23 at 9:00 ET

EUR/CAD rose as expected to 1.4450 one more time on August 21, which provided an opportunity to enter a short position. It has subsequently fallen to 1.4205, a 245 pip move. The 1.4150 target is still within sight.

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EUR/CAD update for Monday August 21 - sell on a rise
<hr style="color: rgb(209, 209, 225);" size="1"><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Monday August 21 9:45 ET

EUR/CAD rose higher than expected, to 1.4472, hitting our stop which was placed at 1.4455. EUR/CAD subsequently fell to 1.4406 before shooting up to 1.4466 again when disappointing Canadian retail sales data was released at 8:30 ET this morning.

Sell on a rise to 1.4450 or better, (the higher the better - less risk for more potential gain), stop must be at 1.4525, which is far away, but target is still 1.4150.

A falling USD/CAD, conjoined with a EUR/USD which will descend in a day or two, will move this cross down over the next few days.
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Friday August 18 at 12:45 ET

EUR/CAD rose 75 pips in a corrective wave to 1.14434. This new high is a good re-entry price zone for a short, as evidenced by a cluster of targetting axes.
TS #146A Sell EUR/CAD at 1.4434
Stop is 1.4455
Target is 1.4150
Risk is 31 pips
Reward is 274 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 8.8 to 1

For research purposes only

Once again Itme ,, Nice call on the EURCAD ..

I'm interested on what you make of the CADJPY chart ... If my understanding of what your doing is correct .. this move in the CADJPY is setting up for an ideal Low Risk, High reward trade ...

I think a nice opportunity will develop to SELL CADJPY .. at about 105.20 .. I'm very curious to find out what your analysis is and if this indeed is setting up for a good move down.

Thanks

Thursday August 24 24:00 ET

TS#156 Sell CAD/JPY at 105.30

Stop is 105.56

Target #1 is 103.50

Target #2 is 103.00

Risk is 35 pips

Reward is min. 170 pips

Reward : Risk Ratio is 4.9 to 1 or 6.3 to 1

For research purposes only.

Good call ont he EURJPY its back up. GBPJPY is waaaaaaaaaay up.

USD/JPYgot a boost from the Japanese CPI data release yesterday apparently. By looking at the figures casually, I didn't realise that they were actually quite significant as regards the future prospect of interest rate hikes in Japan. Thus our USD/JPY trade got stopped out by a sustained upward trend on that pair, which has also pushed the JPY crosses up as well.

We are incorporating fundamental analysis into our model now, to avoid trading against trends that are powered by macroeconomic news. This should reduce the number of losing trades.

This adds alot of extra work, however, - to learn about and stay on top of fundamental news and sentiments.

<table class="tborder" style="margin-top: 12px;" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="0" width="100%"> <thead><tr><td class="alt1">7:30pm</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">JPY</td> <td class="alt1">Consumer Price Index m/m</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">
</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">-0.3%</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">-0.1%</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">0.0%</td> <td class="alt1" id="collapsecal_eventanalysis_2407" style="" align="center">
</td> </tr> </thead> <tbody id="collapseobj_eventanalysis_2407" style="display: none;"> <tr> <td class="alt1" style="background-color: rgb(240, 254, 237); padding-bottom: 11px;" colspan="9" width="100%">

<fieldset class="smallfont" style="padding: 4px 10px 2px; width: 70%; margin-bottom: 9px;"> <legend>Definition</legend>

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the rate of inflation experienced by consumers. The reading represents the monthly change in the average price of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. Higher inflation generally leads to higher interest rates, which tend to strengthen the country's currency.

</fieldset>

</td> </tr> </tbody><thead> <tr> <td class="alt1" nowrap="nowrap">
</td> <td class="alt1">7:30pm</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">JPY</td> <td class="alt1">Tokyo Consumer Price Index m/m</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">[</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">0.7%</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">0.4%</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">0.0%</td> <td class="alt1" id="collapsecal_eventanalysis_2408" style="" align="center">
</td> </tr> </thead> <tbody id="collapseobj_eventanalysis_2408" style="display: none;"> <tr> <td class="alt1" style="background-color: rgb(240, 254, 237); padding-bottom: 11px;" colspan="9" width="100%">

<fieldset class="smallfont" style="padding: 4px 10px 2px; width: 70%; margin-bottom: 9px;"> <legend>Definition</legend>

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the rate of inflation experienced by consumers living in Tokyo, the nation's most populated city. The reading represents the monthly change in the average price of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. Higher inflation generally leads to higher interest rates, which tend to strengthen the country's currency. Tokyo CPI tends to have a greater market impact than National CPI because it's the most recent reading on inflation. Tokyo is relatively small population to survey and therefore results are reported about a month before national results.

</fieldset>

</td> </tr> </tbody><thead> <tr> <td class="alt1" nowrap="nowrap">
</td> <td class="alt1">7:30pm</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">JPY</td> <td class="alt1">Tokyo CPI excl. Fresh Food m/m


</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">[]</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">0.2%</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">0.1%</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">0.1%</td> <td class="alt1" id="collapsecal_eventanalysis_2409" style="" align="center">
</td></tr></thead> </table>

<table class="tborder" style="margin-top: 12px;" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="0" width="100%"> <thead><tr><td class="alt1" id="collapsecal_eventanalysis_2409" style="" align="center">

Forexnews.com : Newsletter
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<table border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="0" width="490"> <tbody><tr><td>Yen Slumps on Weak CPI
by Yan Xu
8/25/2006 6:50:00 AM

Read Full Article

</td></tr> <tr><td> 10:00AM US Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks

The yen fell sharply after a weaker-than-expected increase in Japan CPI dimmed prospects of higher interest rates. The yen slumped from 116.50 to 117.20 against the dollar, and lost nearly 1 cent to 149.74 versus the euro, touching the all-time high achieved on Monday.

The Japan core CPI rose at an annual rate of 0.2% in July, well below the June reading of 0.6% and the forecast for 0.5%. With the inflation level in Japan increased much more slowly than expected, there is heightened speculation that the Bank of Japan may not lift borrowing costs a second time this year. Recall that the Bank of Japan raised its interest rates from zero percent for the first time in six years on July 14, and several BoJ officials and Japan politicians indicated that the central bank will lift rates gradually afterwards. Chief Cabinet Secretary Shinzo Abe said Japan's central bank needs to exercise ``careful'' judgment on economic and price trends. ( More.. )

Read the rest of this article at Forexnews.com

</td></tr></tbody> </table>
</td></tr></thead> </table>

Friday August 25 13:00 ET

At 9:45 ET CAD/JPY presented the perfect configuration for a short as a probable top of a long downtrend. The price then was 106.00. This was the second time it had risen to approximately this figure, thereby completing the Elliott Wave set. This completed another wave up that we had not accounted for in our previous short signal. There may be another short entry opportunity if it rises to about 105.80 to 105.90.

TS#156A Sell CAD/JPY at 105.80 to 105.90

Stop is 106.10

Target #1 is 103.50

Target #2 is 103.00

Risk is 40 to 50 pips

Reward is min. 170 to 220 pips

Reward : Risk Ratio is 3.4 to 1 or 5.5 to 1 , depending on the entry price and target met.

For research purposes only.

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Previous trade signal:

Thursday August 24 24:00 ET
TS#156 Sell CAD/JPY at 105.30
Stop is 105.56
Target #1 is 103.50
Target #2 is 103.00
Risk is 35 pips
Reward is min. 170 pips
Reward : Risk Ratio is 4.9 to 1 or 6.3 to 1

For research purposes only.

Hi

When do you think USD/CHF will hit---1.2200? I also believe it is long overdue for correction. But 1.2356-60 has been holding it since long.

Just wanted to know if you have any speculative timeframe!

USD/CHF will probably rise to 1.2413 to 1.2425 or higher before it is ready to reverse its trend direction and head towards 1.2200 and below. The speed to traverse the downwards trend will depend on a combination of technical and fundamental factors, and varies between 24 hours and two weeks. About one week is the average.

What are your thoughts on EUR/CHF? Possible downturn next week?

Hello Itme,

I'm curious to know what time frame you are referring to about the CADJPY. Are you talking about a 60min chart or 15min or some other period? Where are you seeing the completed Elliott Wave set. I'm thinking you're looking at the 15min as you also mention the double top of the attacks to 106.00 .. And also .. How important is TIME as a measurement in your predititions .. I've noted that some of your previous post mention precise times for reversals .. etc.

Friday August 25 13:00 ET

At 9:45 ET CAD/JPY presented the perfect configuration for a short as a probable top of a long downtrend. The price then was 106.00. This was the second time it had risen to approximately this figure, thereby completing the Elliott Wave set. This completed another wave up that we had not accounted for in our previous short signal. There may be another short entry opportunity if it rises to about 105.80 to 105.90.

Monday August 28 at 8:30 ET

According to our models, USD/CHF will likely descend to 1.2310 or so before rising to 1.2450.

Confidence level - medium low.

In an unusual agreement, Elliottician software and technical interpreters suggest that USD/CHF will bottom out between current levels and 1.2275, "with initial support at 1.2307", before rising strongly targeting the 1.2595 area.

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Previous prediction:

<table class="tborder" id="post89793" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="6" cellspacing="1" width="100%"> <tbody><tr><td class="thead">08-25-2006, 04:36 PM <!-- / status icon and date -->
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="alt2" style="padding: 0px;"> <!-- user info --> <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="6" width="100%"> <tbody><tr> <td class="alt2">
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</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!-- / user info --> </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="alt1"><!-- message, attachments, sig --><!-- icon and title --> USD/CHF prediction
<hr style="color: rgb(209, 209, 225);" size="1"> <!-- / icon and title --> <!-- message --> USD/CHF will probably rise to 1.2413 to 1.2425 or higher before it is ready to reverse its trend direction and head towards 1.2200 and below. The speed to traverse the downwards trend will depend on a combination of technical and fundamental factors, and varies between 24 hours and two weeks. About one week is the average.
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Monday August 28 at 11:00 ET
EUR/CAD rose 120 pips in a corrective wave to 1.14214. This new high is a good re-entry price zone for a short, according to our models.

TS #157 Sell EUR/CAD at 1.4214
Stop is 1.4252
Target #1 is 1.4075
Target #2 is 1.3950
Risk is 48 pips
Reward is 129 / 254 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 2.7 / 5.3 to 1

For research purposes only