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The Swamp

  • #5,121
  • May 12, 2016 10:48am May 12, 2016 10:48am
Quoting ill_be_back
{quote} LONG {image}
Choppy day, watching... GL.
about to s/o from Aussie longs
  • #5,122
  • May 12, 2016 10:53am May 12, 2016 10:53am
london rolled below yest L close and ny close, also below week close. on the other hand it closed above 1308, as did last week.the larger are on the bull side.. still no runner w/o 1451 closed above.. support still 1376/88 unless closed below on a larger tf. chop chop in consolidation. still holding out for 1.17 tested..

but some st spikes below 1376 are not out of mind. attempt at 1451 have failed so far. so have the ones to take out 1376/88.. atm todays high is a lower high under yesterdays.. a LL would be below yest low. -1376 closed is indicative. but a 1h is not as strong as the week closing above 1388. even if below 1376, that week close above should be respected. or, it may not mean shit. its thursday, tomorrow is "shit happens friday"
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #5,123
  • May 12, 2016 11:30am May 12, 2016 11:30am
Quoting gatorinla
london rolled below yest L close and ny close, also below week close. on the other hand it closed above 1308, as did last week.the larger are on the bull side.. still no runner w/o 1451 closed above.. support still 1376/88 unless closed below on a larger tf. chop chop in consolidation. still holding out for 1.17 tested.. but some st spikes below 1376 are not out of mind. attempt at 1451 have failed so far. so have the ones to take out 1376/88.. atm todays high is a lower high under yesterdays.. a LL would be below yest low. -1376 closed is indicative....
me too.
this is not what i like to see though.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #5,124
  • May 12, 2016 12:47pm May 12, 2016 12:47pm
E/U: Bear charging with strength is a sign of final do-or-die attempt before FOMC. 70% chance to be successful
Bullish reaction isn't that appealing since drop from 16xx but not giving up 1400 access

Question is what/who makes bear this strong without group of big players support
You cannot learn better without losing
  • #5,125
  • Edited 9:34pm May 12, 2016 1:19pm | Edited 9:34pm
Pending

OUT
Attached Image
A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
  • #5,126
  • May 12, 2016 2:20pm May 12, 2016 2:20pm
Quoting ill_be_back
Pending {image}
Triggered
A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
  • #5,127
  • May 12, 2016 4:10pm May 12, 2016 4:10pm
ny closed below 1376, but london above 1388. mixed signal to me.. i closed 2/3 my eu longs.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #5,128
  • May 12, 2016 4:52pm May 12, 2016 4:52pm
Quoting gatorinla
ny closed below 1376, but london above 1388. mixed signal to me.. i closed 2/3 my eu longs.
if interested in shorting here at 1373 atm, good luck. even if this would be bearish. theres still a better than 60/40 chance it reaches for 140x. 140x is above 1388..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #5,129
  • May 12, 2016 5:43pm May 12, 2016 5:43pm
my daily chart.
price development today not as i would have liked.
still long, sl below low of last few days.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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rejection of 23 fib usually means continuation.
the wedge formation works against me.
but this is the opportunity to visit 1774 of my previous chart.
weighing risk to reward i hold on to my position.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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final chart. this is an alt bat. it would not be valid.
to become valid price has to go a few more pips down to 1366.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #5,130
  • May 12, 2016 8:55pm May 12, 2016 8:55pm
Quoting longshot_nl
to become valid price has to go a few more pips down to 1366. {image}
done
Attached Image
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #5,131
  • Edited 11:22pm May 12, 2016 9:35pm | Edited 11:22pm
Pending BUY
Cancelled
Attached Image
A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
  • #5,132
  • May 12, 2016 9:47pm May 12, 2016 9:47pm
Quoting longshot_nl
my daily chart. price development today not as i would have liked. still long, sl below low of last few days. {image} rejection of 23 fib usually means continuation. the wedge formation works against me. but this is the opportunity to visit 1774 of my previous chart. weighing risk to reward i hold on to my position. {image} final chart. this is an alt bat. it would not be valid. to become valid price has to go a few more pips down to 1366. {image}

Is this bat pattern suggesting that a reversal of the 4HR uptrend line is likely, and confirmation will occur if a 4HR candle closes below appx 1.1356? Or have I got that wrong, and it suggests rise in price to right hand wing tip?
  • #5,133
  • May 12, 2016 10:16pm May 12, 2016 10:16pm
Quoting edyraper
{quote} if no LL aussie potential target 7465/7477, needs closes above 7363. will usdjpy touch 110 ?
lost Aussie longs, euro longs too close to SL...
  • #5,134
  • Edited May 13, 2016 12:02am May 12, 2016 11:36pm | Edited May 13, 2016 12:02am
Quoting Blackopal
{quote} Is this bat pattern suggesting that a reversal of the 4HR uptrend line is likely, and confirmation will occur if a 4HR candle closes below appx 1.1356? Or have I got that wrong, and it suggests rise in price to right hand wing tip?
It means that when point D is reached there may be a bear wave.
Bears want bear waves.
My target was 1763 now it is 1627.
imho: point C is not tradable.

Other then that, this correction on the daily chart may become a big ass pennant if 1770 ish is not met soon.
(instead of a simple ABC correction)
this is what i mean.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #5,135
  • May 12, 2016 11:59pm May 12, 2016 11:59pm
Good Morning !

Today's SR levels on MT4 Templates for EURO, CABLE, DAX, USDJPY & EURGBP
FX is a Bitc*h!, No one keeps me wake all night but FX does!!
  • #5,136
  • May 13, 2016 12:34am May 13, 2016 12:34am
Quoting longshot_nl
{quote} It means that when point D is reached there may be a bear wave. Bears want bear waves. My target was 1763 now it is 1627. imho: point C is not tradable. Other then that, this correction on the daily chart may become a big ass pennant if 1770 ish is not met soon. (instead of a simple ABC correction) this is what i mean. {image}

Thanks for that explanation longshot. I had a bit of a read about bats and butterflies before asking my question, but I couldn't figure it out from what I read. The diagrams I saw were all interposed on top of completed price action, with candles all the way up and down both wings. Happy to see that right wing pointing up.
As we're on that trendline, I had pendings triggered overnight and this morning at 1.1376 and 1.1371. Hardly a move from between these two prices all day. Seems like a decisive level. If it closes the day and week below the TL further declines ahead.
  • #5,137
  • May 13, 2016 1:12am May 13, 2016 1:12am
Quoting edyraper
{quote} lost Aussie longs, euro longs too close to SL...
euros s/o, perfect week/day...
  • #5,138
  • May 13, 2016 1:17am May 13, 2016 1:17am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} i dont get some.. at support they will not buy and risk 10 pips. but they will buy 50 pips higher. then risk the s/l on the same support not being broken.. if one had risked 10 pips, they could b.e., or even lock 10 in and let it ride
Your S&P looks like it is in play with the DAX running with it.
  • #5,139
  • May 13, 2016 1:18am May 13, 2016 1:18am
Pending BUY
Attached Image
A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
  • #5,140
  • May 13, 2016 1:28am May 13, 2016 1:28am
Uppssss!!!

Pass that 1.1345-35 mark and all those big fat juicy stop losses will begin to sound like slots machines in an indian casino on the Texas/Oklahoma border...
Why sell the bottoms when you can buy the tops...
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