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Oil and Natural Gas

  • #2,401
  • May 9, 2016 12:38pm May 9, 2016 12:38pm
Quoting kweiss10
Anyone realise the how the price of Crude and Brent are only cents apart from each other? What's that all about?
I don't normally trade oil but I would think the 'oil glut' has something to do with shrinking the spread between WTI and brent. If I'm not mistaking there was a wider spread when oil was much more expensive.
TE started 6/4/19
  • #2,402
  • May 10, 2016 12:53am May 10, 2016 12:53am
Latin American oil consumption is shrinking. Brazil has exported two cargoes of refined fuels to Europe.

This is not the first time in recent months that the price of WTI has exceeded Brent. Admittedly this occasion has been caused by the sudden $2.50 drop in the price of a barrel. Since Brent is a European founded metric I'm wondering if there is something else that we have not yet discovered.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #2,403
  • May 10, 2016 2:11am May 10, 2016 2:11am
ngas?
where do you think its heading today?
  • #2,404
  • May 10, 2016 5:40am May 10, 2016 5:40am
Quoting ongsoros
WE are in a major correction ABC trend and inside that trend there are 1,2,3,4,5 and abc waves , that are heading down to arround 42.50, thats the story
and then?
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #2,405
  • May 11, 2016 12:05am May 11, 2016 12:05am
short gas looks well around 2.300?
no one following this?
  • #2,406
  • May 11, 2016 8:21am May 11, 2016 8:21am
will see if it respects any of these lines
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  • #2,407
  • May 11, 2016 9:38am May 11, 2016 9:38am
Oil is killing me....
row row row your boat
  • #2,408
  • May 11, 2016 11:15am May 11, 2016 11:15am
Quoting ngiler
Oil is killing me....
pull the plug on it then..
Memories caught in time but never forgotten
  • #2,409
  • May 11, 2016 11:32am May 11, 2016 11:32am
Inventories oil :

10:30am USD Crude Oil Inventories -3.4M 0.1 M 2.8M

I expected the oil to go lower, but they are missing oil.

I think the USA and their saudi frend will do all their best to lower he price of oil, as long as the recession is not over,
I am expecting a correction after this trend.
  • #2,410
  • May 11, 2016 11:46am May 11, 2016 11:46am
You see that, price alway go down at the same hour, opening of WS, and trend down end with the closure of WS minus 2 hours.
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  • #2,411
  • May 11, 2016 8:48pm May 11, 2016 8:48pm
Quoting machine25
You see that, price alway go down at the same hour, opening of WS, and trend down end with the closure of WS minus 2 hours. {image}
Thanks for sharing but those times are not all the same
  • #2,412
  • May 12, 2016 2:25am May 12, 2016 2:25am
Quoting machine25
Inventories oil : 10:30am USD Crude Oil Inventories -3.4M 0.1 M 2.8M I expected the oil to go lower, but they are missing oil. I think the USA and their saudi frend will do all their best to lower he price of oil, as long as the recession is not over, I am expecting a correction after this trend.
The recession now is associated with low oil prices, meaning that the bankruptcies, the bad loans of banks associated with lending to small oil companies, etc associated with the low oil prices are bad for the market. That is why when there is an oil price rally the equity market also rallies. Ultimately the Fed and the gov are interested in keeping the market intact so they will start supporting the price of oil to make sure that the global economy does not experience another credit crisis. So the argument about pushing the price of oil down as long as there is recession doesnt hold. The price of oil was artificially pushed down for political reasons. Do not look for fundamentals to justify oil prices at 26 USD. There are none.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #2,413
  • May 12, 2016 6:44am May 12, 2016 6:44am
I think you made some paralogism

Quoting manosk
{quote}That is why when there is an oil price rally the equity market also rallies. .
When ecnomics improve, oil rally and equities rally.

Quoting manosk
{quote} The price of oil was artificially pushed down for political reasons. Do not look for fundamentals to justify oil prices at 26 USD. There are none.
Not only for political reason, also because of the recession, low oil price are good for US economy,( yellen say). It help the USA to get out of this crisis.
  • #2,414
  • May 13, 2016 6:52am May 13, 2016 6:52am
Quoting machine25
I think you made some paralogism {quote} When ecnomics improve, oil rally and equities rally. {quote} Not only for political reason, also because of the recession, low oil price are good for US economy,( yellen say). It help the USA to get out of this crisis.
This a naive way to study complex economies. Up to a certain point obviously low oil prices are better than high oil prices as it is a resource used in many industries and directly by consumers. But the key here is up to a certain point. When the economy is based on oil like the Saudi and Russian economies, obviously low oil prices are bad. Even in the US low oil prices are good up to a point. With prolonged low oil prices there are a lot of bankruptcies of small and medium sized oil companies and all these companies received their funding from banks so there is a possibility for another credit crisis due to the fact that all these banks are now bleeding. So even for the US low oil prices are not that great. That is why when oil rallies equities rally
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #2,415
  • May 13, 2016 8:10am May 13, 2016 8:10am
Yes this is quite possible, but we don't know the impact of low oil price on US oil company, nor the impact on bank in case of bankrupcy of some oil company.

It's all a matter of opinion. The benefit of a 40$ oil barrel is greater for the US economy, in my opinion, (because it give money back to every american people), than the problem which would result of oil company bankrupcy.
  • #2,416
  • May 13, 2016 8:42am May 13, 2016 8:42am
Quoting machine25
Yes this is quite possible, but we don't know the impact of low oil price on US oil company, nor the impact on bank in case of bankrupcy of some oil company. It's all a matter of opinion. The benefit of a 40$ oil barrel is greater for the US economy, in my opinion, (because it give money back to every american people), than the problem which would result of oil company bankrupcy.
I do not mean to sound aggressive but your comment on the impact of low oil price on US oil companies and the banks seems uninformed. There are loads of articles and even stats that you can check showing all the small/medium sized US oil companies that have gone bankrupt due to the slump in oil prices and all these are bankrolled by the banks. So it is very naive to think that the effect of so low prices is a good thing for the US economy. Think for a second of all the people in the oil industry in Oklahoma, Nebraska etc that have been fired in the last year. That is the reason I said up to a certain point.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #2,417
  • May 13, 2016 9:45am May 13, 2016 9:45am
The price of certain banks stock goes up and down with the oil price, depending upon their lending exposure to the oil industry.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #2,418
  • May 13, 2016 10:32am May 13, 2016 10:32am
Quoting Exodus
The price of certain banks stock goes up and down with the oil price, depending upon their lending exposure to the oil industry.
Yes just a guess I would assume banks exposure to oil companies is high and their debt is high yield so any rallies in oil is very positive for banks.
TE started 6/4/19
  • #2,419
  • May 13, 2016 11:16am May 13, 2016 11:16am
Quoting Exodus
The price of certain banks stock goes up and down with the oil price, depending upon their lending exposure to the oil industry.
correct
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #2,420
  • May 14, 2016 10:07pm May 14, 2016 10:07pm
Double Top at daily chart. I believe last move to a new bottom will just start sometime next week. First target may be 44.

In mid term I believe we will find the bottom around 20. After that a long term up trend may start.
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