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The ART of trading by Petar_Serbia

  • #2,061
  • May 10, 2016 8:26am May 10, 2016 8:26am
Today evening we got news, which can bring us strong liquidity >

RBNZ Financial Stability Report
RBNZ Gov Wheeler Speaks

I will watch speak since it can bring us potential liquidity, If not then I am waiting tomorrow Manufacturing Production m/m

Best Regards,
Petar
"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #2,062
  • May 11, 2016 6:14am May 11, 2016 6:14am
Hello traders,
Nothing important happened on RBNZ Gov Wheeler Speaks and Manufacturing Production m/m, very low liquidity on this news so I am waiting today Crude Oil Inventories for potential action.
Anyway, while I am waiting for news,I found a very solid pattern and I like volume action in the creation of the pattern.
I found inverted head and shoulders formation according to the 15M time frame. I am posting you SpotFX gold chart and Futures market chart. Notice the volume on the right shoulder of the pattern (diminishing volume). This is a good sign for me that this is a valid pattern and that is worth buying position (0.5% risk). Another good confirmation of pattern is a successful breakout of the neckline and successful test of that same. I will try to take 1:3 RRR. TP around the price of $1,287.00.
If you like my analysis don't be afraid to comment

Petar
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #2,063
  • May 11, 2016 7:47am May 11, 2016 7:47am
Video analysis on GOLD >

Inserted Video



Petar
"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #2,064
  • May 12, 2016 4:59am May 12, 2016 4:59am
Quoting Petar_Serbia
Video analysis on GOLD > https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uo5O...ature=youtu.be Petar
Hello traders,
I took the lose 0.5% on the gold. Anyway, I am awaiting news for GBP today for potential setup >

BOE Inflation Report
GBPMPC Official Bank Rate Votes
GBPMonetary Policy Summary
GBPOfficial Bank Rate
BOE Gov Carney Speaks

In the next 2 hours, I am expecting large volatility on GBP pairs. Hope I will find good setup

Best Regards,
Petar
"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #2,065
  • May 12, 2016 7:14am May 12, 2016 7:14am
Sold the GBP/USD at the price of 1.4460. I rly. like price action after the news. I saw strong volume spike (buying climax) and later on few up-thrust bars. I see no upward pressure from professional money, which means that they are selling.

I market letters on the chart and will go through explanation >

a - Massive volume spike (buying climax). Wide spread of the bar in an ultra high volume. Notice the close. Bar closed well of the high, which is a strong sign of weakness. If there is strong buying from professionals, the bar should close well of the high.

b - Up-thrust on the highest price. Supply overcame demand (another sign of weakness)

c - the Narrow spread of the bar in a low volume. Classic no demand bar or no buying pressure

d - Another Up-thrust bar in a high volume. Supply overcame demand.

Due to major weakness (buying climax) in the background my advice is to watch for selling on the weakness.

My fixed target is at the price of 1.4315. Of course, I may decide to exit manually depend on of the price action.

If you like my analysis, feel free to comment...

Best Regards,
Petar
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #2,066
  • May 12, 2016 9:56am May 12, 2016 9:56am
Sold again at 1.4515. Again, buying climax and later on weak demand. The risk was about 15 pips and I am going for 80 pips target.

Best Regards,
Petar
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #2,067
  • May 12, 2016 10:05am May 12, 2016 10:05am
Quoting Petar_Serbia
Sold again at 1.4515. Again, buying climax and later on weak demand. The risk was about 15 pips and I am going for 80 pips target. Best Regards, Petar {image}
Petar

and where was the stop of the sell 1.4460 ? are you close it in loss?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,068
  • May 12, 2016 10:24am May 12, 2016 10:24am
Quoting Juan007
{quote} Petar and where was the stop of the sell 1.4460 ? are you close it in loss? {image}
Yes Juan,
That one I took loss of 0.5% but I got this one already +1.2%


Best Regards,
Petar
"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #2,069
  • May 12, 2016 11:15am May 12, 2016 11:15am
Quoting Petar_Serbia
{quote} Yes Juan, That one I took loss of 0.5% but I got this one already +1.2% Best Regards, Petar
and know you win
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,070
  • May 12, 2016 11:19am May 12, 2016 11:19am
Quoting Petar_Serbia
Sold again at 1.4515. Again, buying climax and later on weak demand. The risk was about 15 pips and I am going for 80 pips target. Best Regards, Petar {image}
Closed +1.3%
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #2,071
  • Edited 5:14am May 13, 2016 4:41am | Edited 5:14am
Very nice trade Petar, did you also use any volume/reaction in this trade?
If your still using MT4, can you also attach the indicators and template?
  • #2,072
  • May 13, 2016 5:15am May 13, 2016 5:15am
Quoting 45Fxguy
Very nice trade Petar, did you also use any volume/reaction in this trade?
Thank you very much friend and welcome to the thread ,
Yes, I used, of course, volume analysis in my analysis.

I already posted 1M chart yesterday where I found resistance cluster and weakness. According to the 15M time frame we got >

a - Wide spread bar in a high volume. The market doesn't like wide spread bars. Professionals look for selling.

b - Bullish bar but now with narrow spread and still high volume. So, if there is real buying how the bar can close same like the previous bar but now with the narrow spread ? it must be that smart money selling there.

I am awaiting today news in 2 hours and hope for some liquidity.

Core Retail Sales m/m
0.6%0.2%
PPI m/m
0.3% -0.1%
Retail Sales m/m
-0.3%-0.3%


Petar
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #2,073
  • May 16, 2016 7:44am May 16, 2016 7:44am
Hello traders,
I bought GBP/USD at the price of 1.4366. I marked letters on the chart >

a - Volume spike (stopping volume). Wide spread bar in a ultra high volume, which closed in the middle. This is major sign of strength today. How the bar can close in the middle if there is a strong selling pressure. It must be that smart money bought into public selling.

b - Another high volume down bar but closed in the middle.

c - Tesing of supply in a high volume. Again, bar closed near the top.

Now, when we did volume analysis, we must find where this action happened. It happened around strong support cluster, which gives more value to our volume analysis.

Will try to take 1:3 RRR. TP around 1.4500

If you like analysis, feel free to comment >

Petar
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #2,074
  • May 16, 2016 10:58am May 16, 2016 10:58am
Quoting Petar_Serbia
Hello traders, I bought GBP/USD at the price of 1.4366. I marked letters on the chart > a - Volume spike (stopping volume). Wide spread bar in a ultra high volume, which closed in the middle. This is major sign of strength today. How the bar can close in the middle if there is a strong selling pressure. It must be that smart money bought into public selling. b - Another high volume down bar but closed in the middle. c - Tesing of supply in a high volume. Again, bar closed near the top. Now, when we did volume analysis, we must find where this action...
[/font]

Not bad so far +45 pips . Will try to take 140 pips or 1:4 RRR in this setup.
Video analysis coming soon

Best Regards,
Petar
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #2,075
  • May 16, 2016 11:24am May 16, 2016 11:24am
Video analysis as like i promised

Inserted Video


If you like analysis, feel free to comment...

Best Regards,
Petar
"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #2,076
  • May 17, 2016 6:18am May 17, 2016 6:18am
Quoting Petar_Serbia
{quote}[/font] Not bad so far +45 pips . Will try to take 140 pips or 1:4 RRR in this setup. Video analysis coming soon Best Regards, Petar {image}
Hello traders,
I took +122 pips or 1:4 RRR (+2.2% on the account). It was very nice trade and i am awaiting new opportunities.

Petar
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDM30.pngprofit.png Size: 79 KB
"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #2,077
  • May 17, 2016 7:13am May 17, 2016 7:13am
I did analysis on AUD/USD and I found solid setup there.I will post AUD/USDFX chart and futures chart. I marked letters on the chart and will go through explanation now >


a - Massive volume spike and wide spread of the bar, a classic buying climax. This buying climax happened because of RBA meeting minutes. The bar closed near the top, which was a sign that we may see another trying upward before sellers come in. Anyway, definitely a major sign of weakness, because the market doesn't like wide spread bars in an ultra high volume.

b - Another wide spread bar with high volume. I saw no buying pressure after this demand, I saw that this action caused the market to go sideways for a while.

c - a Successful test of resistance cluster and Up-thrust bar in a high volume. Up-thrust = supply overcoming demand.

c - Doji (Up-thrust). Another sign of weakness and another successful test of the cluster.

e and f - Narrow spread of the bar in a low volume. Classics no demand bars. Since we got massive sign of weakness in the background, no demand bars are very good setup trigers.

I also found trading range and classic signs of distribution phase by Wyckoff analysis. We got buying climax , which stopped price from going higher, automatic rally, ice, Up thrust, sign fo weakness.

Will try to take 1:3 RRR at least. Risk is around 30 pips. Targets set at 0.7200 - 0.7130.

Best Regards,
Petar
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDM15.pngsetup.png Size: 63 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: chart.png Size: 141 KB
"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #2,078
  • May 17, 2016 12:14pm May 17, 2016 12:14pm
Quoting Petar_Serbia
I did analysis on AUD/USD and I found solid setup there.I will post AUD/USDFX chart and futures chart. I marked letters on the chart and will go through explanation now > a - Massive volume spike and wide spread of the bar, a classic buying climax. This buying climax happened because of RBA meeting minutes. The bar closed near the top, which was a sign that we may see another trying upward before sellers come in. Anyway, definitely a major sign of weakness, because the market doesn't like wide spread bars in an ultra high volume. b - Another wide...
Hello traders,
Took the lost 0.5% on this one but I opened buy position on USD/JPY at the price of 109.07. I marked letters on the chart and will go through explanation.

a - Wide spread of the bar in a very high volume but closed well of the low (Sign of strength). Potential stopping volume,

b - Lower spread of the bar but still high volume and the bar closed almost near the top. If there was strong selling, how the next bar can close near the top ? It must be that smart money started with buying.

c - Another supply bar in a high volume but bar again closed in the middle. Another sign of strength.

d - A narrow spread of the bar. The classic test of supply bar in a low volume. Good buy signal.

I am going for at least 1:3 RRR. TP around 110.65. Pay attention on level 109.65.

If you like my analysis, feel free to comment >

Petar
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYM30.pngbullish.png Size: 54 KB
"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #2,079
  • May 18, 2016 4:45am May 18, 2016 4:45am
Quoting Petar_Serbia
{quote} Hello traders, Took the lost 0.5% on this one but I opened buy position on USD/JPY at the price of 109.07. I marked letters on the chart and will go through explanation. a - Wide spread of the bar in a very high volume but closed well of the low (Sign of strength). Potential stopping volume, b - Lower spread of the bar but still high volume and the bar closed almost near the top. If there was strong selling, how the next bar can close near the top ? It must be that smart money started with buying. c - Another supply bar in a high volume...
The price actually managed to go to my target but I closed in small lose due to news for JPY.
Anyway, I sold GBP/USD at the price of 1.4405 with SL around 20 pips. Will try to take 60 pips.

I sold due to the strong sign of weakness in the background and no demand bars later on. Even we got good news for GBP and
Average Earnings Index 3m/y
2.0% 1.7% 1.9%GBP
Claimant Count Change
-2.4K 4.0K 14.7K

Price action showed a strong sign of weakness today, which is a sign that GBP is not ready for buying and smart money selling today.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #2,080
  • May 18, 2016 5:52am May 18, 2016 5:52am
Quoting Petar_Serbia
{quote} The price actually managed to go to my target but I closed in small lose due to news for JPY. Anyway, I sold GBP/USD at the price of 1.4405 with SL around 20 pips. Will try to take 60 pips. I sold due to the strong sign of weakness in the background and no demand bars later on. Even we got good news for GBP and Average Earnings Index 3m/y 2.0% 1.7% 1.9%GBP Claimant Count Change -2.4K 4.0K 14.7K Price action showed a strong sign of weakness today, which is a sign that GBP is not ready for buying and smart money selling today. {image}
Took lose here. Awaiting news in 3 hours and major news in 7 hours.

Petar
"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
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