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The Big secret to trading success

  • #561
  • May 10, 2016 2:00pm May 10, 2016 2:00pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} Seriously, dude... Have a look at the chart. If an MTF analysis doesn't work, or is pseudo-science, how is it that I can call market turns within spread to a couple of pips? 10 hours prior to price touching down ->HERE Current Chart: The only way you can fail to see this, is by willing and deliberate ignorance. {image}
Hi Magix, I'm just slightly confused about what this dust up is about. It seems pretty clear that trend analysis, and all TA for that matter, should be done across different timeframes. If your point is that multiple time frame analysis can lead to better trading, then I think my experience will corroborate that claim. People who rely on one time frame will be prone to trade into a technical obstacle that is visible only from the perspective of a higher time frame (and then we have to listen to people complain about random markets and broker shenanigans). That is not a psychological crutch, but instead is reality. And of course, none of this will make any sense without an understanding of market structure, which is the structure that TA tries to measure. Btw...your precision in target selection is good. Good trading!
  • #562
  • May 10, 2016 2:37pm May 10, 2016 2:37pm
Quoting GEfx
. If your point is that multiple time frame analysis can lead to better trading, then I think my experience will corroborate that claim. People who rely on one time frame will be prone to trade into a technical obstacle that is visible only from the perspective of a higher time frame (and then we have to listen to people complain about random markets and broker shenanigans). That is not a psychological crutch, but instead is reality. And of course, none of this will make any sense without an understanding of market structure, which is the structure...
That's pretty much my point.

Seems that the only people that dispute this, are the people who don't have the ability nor capacity to try and understand.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #563
  • May 10, 2016 3:06pm May 10, 2016 3:06pm
Quoting GEfx
Btw...your precision in target selection is good. Good trading!
Actually...I missed by 1 pip on this one.
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Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #564
  • May 10, 2016 3:12pm May 10, 2016 3:12pm
Quoting seahorse
Finally I finished my collection. {image}
Lmao.
  • #565
  • Edited 3:44pm May 10, 2016 3:24pm | Edited 3:44pm
Quoting 30XTCi
@ Good Lookin, so many charts, i'm confused. It looks like you are trying to show me the same information thru different lenses. I could be wrong. Now Good Lookin, I'm sorry to say this but your Trade Explorer is not Lookin Good. Can you still trade a live account with ONE CENT left in it?
Just noticed your post. Use quotes!

Yes well if the only live accounts that exist are the ones displayed on FF then hats off to you. If you also think that live accounts linked will never stop being linked then hats off to you. If you think that account that i linked with less than 1k usd was serious business then hats off to you for the last time. But i only have 1 hat so pick one.

Multi TF analysis in that picture was simple. Look at the range on the higher TF and trade the tops and bottoms on a lower TF. Or trade the breakouts of that range on the lower TF. Nothing special, not a holy grail but it sure as hell works.
  • #566
  • May 10, 2016 4:44pm May 10, 2016 4:44pm
Quoting Copernicus
Me too......which if I recall correctly means probably the 80's when there popular editions came out. I remember purchasing them from an ASX bookshop for crying out loud. Who now buys books from bookshops?...... After getting into Elder, the penny dropped that Darryl must have been trained under him. The good ol' days when Lotus 123 used to kick MS Excel out of the ball park.....*sobs*.....memories. I sold my soul to the devil after realizing that the chicks just luv'd Excel fly boys.
I likewise used 123 for a long time. Prior to that there was also a spreadsheet called Multiplan, if I recall correctly. Those were the days!

Quoting jmn5611
My very first programming languages were PASCAL and FORTRAN. The screens were still green back then.
My first home computer was a TRS-80, could be programmed in Level II BASIC and Assembler. Got my first job as a junior programmer after leaving high school in 1979, and learned COBOL and Business BASIC on the job, on Data General Eclipse and Nova minis. The company also owned some Burroughs B-80s there for which program/data input was all punched cards, and backups to magnetic tape reels. Then the IBM PC was launched, and the industry changed forever.

However, little did I know that, some 20 years later, modifying legacy COBOL apps for Y2K compliance would prove to be a goldmine, LOL.
Quote
Well you got off to the right start! My first trading book was from Wade Cook, remember that guy???!!!
I've heard the name, but he was a little before my time: I only became actively interested in the markets around 1999/2000.
  • #567
  • May 10, 2016 7:29pm May 10, 2016 7:29pm
Quoting GEfx
{quote} Hi Magix, I'm just slightly confused about what this dust up is about. It seems pretty clear that trend analysis, and all TA for that matter, should be done across different timeframes. If your point is that multiple time frame analysis can lead to better trading, then I think my experience will corroborate that claim. People who rely on one time frame will be prone to trade into a technical obstacle that is visible only from the perspective of a higher time frame (and then we have to listen to people complain about random markets and broker...
I think they aren't as different in their thinking as they think they are. One has a pet peeve about "- Referring to 'timeframe' without specifying sampling interval and lookback period is ambiguous." which was expressed in a long post and summarised later. The other likes using multiple time frames and often posts charts which to my thinking means the first wouldn't have an issue as the ambiguity is removed by the visual. The problem probably arose as they resorted to personal attacks instead of a calm discussion.

Personally I don't go from a 30m chart to a 1hr as they are too similar. Advice I got was to use timeframes with a scale of 4 to 6 difference and hence generally only look at 15min, 1hr, 4h, daily, weekly and monthly. When I am looking at different timeframes I am not using the same lookback period that Atokys had issue with. When I go to a higher timeframe I am wanting to see data going back further and particularly when it comes to looking back years this can often only be done on daily or higher.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #568
  • May 10, 2016 9:28pm May 10, 2016 9:28pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} Actually...I missed by 1 pip on this one. {image}
Let's just say the market missed it by one 1 pip! Good trading!
  • #569
  • May 10, 2016 10:16pm May 10, 2016 10:16pm
Quoting loleno
{quote} Risk/reward ratios are bullshit. It's made up nonsense that gets passed around over and over. In my opinion traders lose because they dont know how to manage their positions properly.
​It's odd you say "traders don't know how to manage their positions properly" and at the same time say "risk/reward ratios are BS. Speculative trading is one step above gambling. If you gamble you will find out very quickly that keeping ahead is all about risk:reward. If you close your trades consistently at less than 1:1 you will lose in the not so very long run as you will need to have a very high win rate. Few if any have a HIGH win rate trading FOREX. It takes only elementary math to figure this out. On the other hand you can also figure out the hard way.
  • #570
  • May 11, 2016 1:07am May 11, 2016 1:07am
Quoting Magix
{quote} Actually...I missed by 1 pip on this one. {image}
hi magix.

got to agree with you on this topic,i use 7 t/f and am able to understand a large part of the markets movement.all my target prices are from that information and like yourself are within pips of those prices.ive been using this for years and it has proven to be priceless.

my example here was last weeks employment numbers were i captured the move from point to point gaining 100 plus pips in 15mins or so.

all my multi time frame levels are presnt and forcasted with extreme precision.
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  • #571
  • May 11, 2016 6:03am May 11, 2016 6:03am
Quoting Winston Reed
{quote} ​It's odd you say "traders don't know how to manage their positions properly" and at the same time say "risk/reward ratios are BS. Speculative trading is one step above gambling. If you gamble you will find out very quickly that keeping ahead is all about risk:reward. If you close your trades consistently at less than 1:1 you will lose in the not so very long run as you will need to have a very high win rate. Few if any have a HIGH win rate trading FOREX. It takes only elementary math to figure this out. On the other hand you can also...
I should clarify. My reply was in response to the FXCM article posted. ALL trades are a representation of risk vs reward, but the way to do this as suggested by the article is simply wrong. If a trader wins 60% of the time and their losses are bigger than their wins, simply adjusting the R/R ratio will not automatically make them profitable. The article assumes the win rate stays the same at 60% regardless of the ratio. It is obvious as you adjust the ratio your win rate will change. Put another way, the trader may be correct 60% of the time BECAUSE of whatever R/R they used. So if for example they started messing around with their stop losses and/or profits, that will definitely alter their win rate and hence their results. This is very basic and nothing new, as I'm sure it's been posted by others many times before.

Winston Reed, I'm sorry to say but gambling is not all about R/R. You first and foremost need an edge, and R/R by itself will never give you an edge you need to make profit consistently. I value your opinion, but making your winners bigger than your losers is not the only way to make profit.
  • #572
  • May 11, 2016 6:13am May 11, 2016 6:13am
Quoting loleno
{quote} ... It is obvious as you adjust the ratio your win rate will change. Put another way, the trader may be correct 60% of the time BECAUSE of whatever R/R they used. So if for example they started messing around with their stop losses and/or profits, that will definitely alter their win rate and hence their results...
Imho any trader adjusting his/her sl for R/R is playing with fire. You determine your R/R before enterying a position. If your entry level to your potential tp is not more than the R/R you target, it will be more appropriate to step aside and not enter the trade.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #573
  • May 11, 2016 6:29am May 11, 2016 6:29am
Quoting hanover
{quote} I likewise used 123 for a long time. Prior to that there was also a spreadsheet called Multiplan, if I recall correctly. Those were the days! {quote} My first home computer was a TRS-80, could be programmed in Level II BASIC and Assembler. Got my first job as a junior programmer after leaving high school in 1979, and learned COBOL and Business BASIC on the job, on Data General Eclipse and Nova minis. The company also owned some Burroughs B-80s there for which program/data...
Yup I tried to recall the one b4 lotus123, it's multiplan! Love the macro although it's functionally limited and it's green. '90s Dr Elders triple screen was the fave then.
  • #574
  • May 11, 2016 6:49am May 11, 2016 6:49am
If you're trading the 1m tmeframe, the sl has to be precise to the pippette and pray that the spread will not get you. The payoff is the huge R:R in return. It's kind of acquired skill after much practice to get acquainted with the pairs you trade. It's a lot harder for pairs with wider spread like gnz but if you get it right it can be rewarding.
  • #575
  • May 11, 2016 7:01am May 11, 2016 7:01am
Quoting hanover
{quote} I likewise used 123 for a long time. Prior to that there was also a spreadsheet called Multiplan, if I recall correctly. Those were the days! {quote} My first home computer was a TRS-80, could be programmed in Level II BASIC and Assembler. Got my first job as a junior programmer after leaving high school in 1979, and learned COBOL and Business BASIC on the job, on Data General Eclipse and Nova minis. The company also owned some Burroughs B-80s there for which program/data input was all...
Wade Cook was the guy who was touting that writing covered call options would make you rich. I fell for that one. I was young and knew nothing about the markets what so ever. I got interested in 1997. So I started with options, then day traded stocks, then moved to futures, and finally discovered FX in 2006. I wish I knew then what I know now.

BTW, my first computer was an ATT 6300! It was state of the art!

On an aside, where is the code to do hyperlinks like you do? If I start doing historical posting, that is going to really come in handy.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #576
  • Edited 8:40am May 11, 2016 8:21am | Edited 8:40am
Quoting Magix
...you can't actually walk into a Technical Arena
Quoting Magix
Seriously, dude... Have a look at the chart. If an MTF analysis doesn't work, or is pseudo-science, how is it that I can call market turns within spread to a couple of pips? 10 hours prior to price touching down ->HERE Current Chart: The only way you can fail to see this, is by willing and deliberate ignorance.
You're still at it, huh?

Well, I have to congratulate you on your persistence in chasing an argument that was never directly made. My original post was being critical of the way ideas were communicated, not the idea itself directly, and not, least of all, your pet idea that you so vigourously want to get offended about.

But screw it, im enjoying myself, and I hate to disappoint the guys who prepared their popcorn. Lets not let basic reading comprehension get in the way of a "TECHNICAL ARENA" pit fight where we post charts for no apparent reason and strut around pretending like a point was made.
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Astute traders, head and shoulders above their peers, used Multiple Children's Drawing Analysis™ to profit after spotting the early Giraffe head formation.
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Many market predators, smelling blood in the water, caught the exact top of an overbought market on the tip of Sharky's dorsal fin and rode the ensuing move down for killer profits.
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Inspired by Seahorse's current favorite hobby, Pikachu's tail forecasts the continuation of an up move with shocking accuracy.
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Oink oink! Pigs are known to be adept at sniffing out truffles as well as the beginnings of enormous bull markets.

If Multiple Children's Drawing Analysis™ doesn't work then how can I predict the future with perfect accuracy? Of course, this has nothing to do with the fact that I can fit any shape of my imagination over price data given an unbound lookback period and chart granularity. No, I tell you, price anatomy mimics life itself, literally. This explains the great power of Multiple Children's Drawing Analysis™. If you cannot see this then... well, adjust your chart until you can!

=)
  • #577
  • May 11, 2016 8:46am May 11, 2016 8:46am


thats funny .

i got 2 bags of popcorn ready
  • #578
  • May 11, 2016 8:59am May 11, 2016 8:59am
Quoting Atokys
{quote} {quote} You're still at it, huh? Well, I have to congratulate you on your persistence in chasing an argument that was never directly made. My original post was being critical of the way ideas were communicated, not the idea itself directly, and not, least of all, your pet idea that you so vigourously want to get offended about. But screw it, im enjoying myself, and I hate to disappoint the guys who prepared their popcorn. Lets not let basic reading comprehension get in the way of a "TECHNICAL ARENA" pit fight where we post charts for no...
Great post

Sorry sir, for having put you in my collection and please accept my apologies.
You are no longer in my collection.
  • #579
  • May 11, 2016 9:00am May 11, 2016 9:00am
Quoting Atokys
You're still at it, huh?
Thanks for proving my point!
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Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #580
  • Edited 9:20am May 11, 2016 9:06am | Edited 9:20am
Quoting Atokys
No, I tell you, price anatomy mimics life itself, literally. This explains the great power of Multiple Children's Drawing Analysis. If you cannot see this then... well, adjust your chart until you can! =)
Fabulous!

Quoting jmn5611
Wade Cook was the guy who was touting that writing covered call options would make you rich. I fell for that one.On an aside, where is the code to do hyperlinks like you do? If I start doing historical posting, that is going to really come in handy.
I blew $5k on a similar course by an Australian vendor. From what I learned: writing covered calls provides an income in sideways markets, caps returns in bull markets (would have been better off by simply buying the stock), and makes losses a little smaller in bear markets. Anyway, will leave it at that, as I'm taking a very good thread off its original track.

Re the hyperlinks, type the text for the link (e.g. click here), and drag the mouse over it to highlight it. Then click on the chain icon (see attached screenshot), type/paste in the URL for the link (e.g. http://www.myurl.com), and press Enter.
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