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The Big secret to trading success

  • #541
  • May 9, 2016 8:57pm May 9, 2016 8:57pm
to succeed in forex we have to be clever in managing capital and risk well. so our account will be able to survive in forex. success in forex is not easy because the forex risk is very high, if you want to succeed then we need to be patient and disciplined
  • #542
  • May 10, 2016 1:30am May 10, 2016 1:30am
Quoting loleno
{quote} Risk/reward ratios are bullshit. It's made up nonsense that gets passed around over and over. In my opinion traders lose because they dont know how to manage their positions properly.
not sure why you would say r/r is bullshit,

i would go as far as saying if there was a secret in this game it would be in managing risk and managing a concistant r/r around around that risk.your method of trading requires those first 2 components .to be concistant requires a number of elements ,its actually very fickle ,just one element that is slightly of sync will fail the whole.
  • #543
  • May 10, 2016 4:14am May 10, 2016 4:14am
Quoting mohsinali
{quote} Golden words.....Trading is like pure arithmetic ....
  • #544
  • May 10, 2016 4:22am May 10, 2016 4:22am
Quoting loleno
{quote} Risk/reward ratios are bullshit. It's made up nonsense that gets passed around over and over. In my opinion traders lose because they dont know how to manage their positions properly.
Hi loleno, I respect your opinion.
But, try to go more deeper into the subject, you may have a (good) surprise.

PS: Of course by itself R:R means nothing
  • #545
  • May 10, 2016 7:08am May 10, 2016 7:08am
Quoting cat
Hundreds of books have been dedicated to this question, hundreds more threads have discussed it and analyzed it, everybody knows what it is, and yet, the majority of traders still lose. The answer boils down to just one thing around which everything else will, given time, fall into place. The reason we lose is that we ignore it, and we ignore it because it runs counter to human nature, for we humans are especially prone to over-complicating things and failing to see the wood for the trees. Such an approach to the markets is usually fatal. As Einstein...
trading is more than profesion or system but its deeply in mindset . you need disiplin to react about market live .
  • #546
  • May 10, 2016 8:35am May 10, 2016 8:35am
Alright, rant time.

The past page has gone into the topic of 'timeframes'. I shall take this opportunity to rant a little about a pet peeve, of course this is directed at nobody in particular and at FF in general.

When people talk about Timeframes, they are really ambiguously referring to one or both of these things:
A. Sampling interval.
B. Lookback period.

Unless both A & B are defined beforehand, discussions about analysis based on 'TFs' are incoherent and full of hidden assumptions because most people allude to A. or B. or both without specifically saying so and assume people know what they are talking about. But of course, this is Forex Factory, these confused saps will find actual discussion and agreement with their equally confused ilk. All of those projecting their own personal definitions of their 'TF' and agreeing to another person's blind agreement.

Rant number two; Multiple Timeframe Analysis™. Assuming the same lookback period, a chart of 30 minute OHLC data contains the same information as a chart of daily OHLC data. The 'lower TF' merely displays the data with more granularity.

Many trend followers only use daily data because their methods disregard intraday price swings. Daily OHLC is enough when you're playing for the big swing.

An intraday trader may wish to use more granular data if his trading style calls for it. Such a trader is best served studying price of a standard granularity. Where is the logic of studying multiple granularities (TFs)? A standard lookback period ensures its all the same data regardless of 'TF'. You may as well just stick to your 'lowest TF' and then zoom out from the chart rather than 'go up a TF'.

Whats the difference between:
1. Studying 30 minute price data over the past 1 month. (single TF analysis)
and
2. Studying 30m data, then 'switching up a TF' to 1H data then 'switching up a TF' to 4H data over the past 1 month. (Multiple TimeFrame Analysis)

The difference is purely psychological/emotional.
  • #547
  • May 10, 2016 8:46am May 10, 2016 8:46am
Quoting Atokys
When people talk about Timeframes, they are really ambiguously referring to one or both of these things:
A. Sampling interval.
B. Lookback period.
Unless both A & B are defined beforehand, discussions about analysis based on 'TFs' are incoherent and full of hidden assumptions because most people allude to A. or B. or both without specifically saying so and assume people know what they are talking about.


Your broad sweeping assumptions aren't a sign of your market savvy as much as they are clarity to your general ignorance.

For shame, for shame!
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #548
  • May 10, 2016 8:50am May 10, 2016 8:50am
Quoting Magix
{quote} Your broad sweeping assumptions aren't a sign of your market savvy as much as they are clarity to your general ignorance. For shame, for shame!
Ad hominem.

Looks like I struck a nerve.
  • #549
  • May 10, 2016 8:58am May 10, 2016 8:58am
Quoting Atokys
{quote} Ad hominem. Looks like I struck a nerve.
Matter of fact, this kind of ignorance masked in prose does strike several nerves.

While I first found your posts thought provoking, I now believe they are just a diatribe of worthless bullshit.

Learn to read a chart, son...then talk about what works and what doesn't.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...09#post8918509
See HERE -> http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...57#post8917557
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...05#post8899805
See HERE ->http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...82#post8898882
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...87#post8896887
See HERE ->http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...92#post8894692
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...44#post8894644
See HERE ->http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...15#post8905015
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #550
  • May 10, 2016 9:05am May 10, 2016 9:05am
Quoting Magix
{quote} Matter of fact, this kind of ignorance masked in prose does strike several nerves. While I first found your posts thought provoking, I now believe they are just a diatribe of worthless bullshit. Learn to read a chart, son...then talk about what works and what doesn't. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...09#post8918509 See HERE -> http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...57#post8917557 http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...05#post8899805 See HERE ->http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...82#post8898882...
Ad hominem.

Self-referential garbage.

Strike two.
  • #551
  • May 10, 2016 9:12am May 10, 2016 9:12am
Quoting Atokys
{quote} Ad hominem. Self-referential garbage. Strike two.
lol

Where is the "Go Fuck Yourself" Smiley when you need it?

So, because you can't actually walk into a Technical Arena, I am supposed to cower to the fact that you can use multiple syllable words?

You need to renew a script for KnittingFactory...leave the techs to those that can.

Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #552
  • May 10, 2016 9:20am May 10, 2016 9:20am
Quoting Magix
lol Where is the "Go Fuck Yourself" Smiley when you need it? So, because you can't actually walk into a Technical Arena, I am supposed to cower to the fact that you can use multiple syllable words? You need to renew a script for KnittingFactory...leave the techs to those that can.
Oh wait... you actually, truly, believe the illogical tripe that I debunked?

Oh dear me, Im so sorry for challenging your pseudo-science. It must mean a lot to you. I guess I should have realized from the irrational reaction. Sorry.

Ok, friend, you can post more charts and knock me straight out of the 'Technical Arena' *snicker* anything to make you feel better bro.
  • #553
  • May 10, 2016 9:28am May 10, 2016 9:28am
Quoting Atokys
Assuming the same lookback period, a chart of 30 minute OHLC data contains the same information as a chart of daily OHLC data. The 'lower TF' merely displays the data with more granularity. /// ...A standard lookback period ensures its all the same data regardless of 'TF'. You may as well just stick to your 'lowest TF' and then zoom out from the chart rather than 'go up a TF'. The difference is purely psychological/emotional.
I 100% agree to this. For any 'timeframe' displays the 'internal structure' of the 'next higher timeframe'. Yet the only constant is price.

As you said, stick to one and 'zoom out'. Well at least thats how i see it.
  • #554
  • May 10, 2016 9:37am May 10, 2016 9:37am
Quoting Pipalicious
I 100% agree to this. For any 'timeframe' displays the 'internal structure' of the 'next higher timeframe'. Yet the only constant is price. As you said, stick to one and 'zoom out'. Well at least thats how i see it.
Thanks.

To clarify; the idea that was expressed is simply this:
- Referring to 'timeframe' without specifying sampling interval and lookback period is ambiguous.
- It makes more sense to clarify both parameters beforehand.

Therefore instead of saying 'I analyse the lower/higher timeframe' it would be more meaningful to say 'I confine my analysis to the past X months using <4H> OHLC price bars'.

Its really not controversial or provocative whatsoever. lol.
  • #555
  • May 10, 2016 9:37am May 10, 2016 9:37am
Quoting Atokys
{quote} Oh wait... you actually, truly, believe the illogical tripe that I debunked? Oh dear me, Im so sorry for challenging your pseudo-science. It must mean a lot to you. I guess I should have realized from the irrational reaction. Sorry. Ok, friend, you can post more charts and knock me straight out of the 'Technical Arena' *snicker* anything to make you feel better bro.
Debunked?

Saying you debunked something doesn't actually mean that you did...it just means you said something.

Again, more of your worthless rant.

Have a look through my historical charts?

I superimpose the MTFs on charts and call supply and demand targets to the Pip.

Failure to understand candle structure and a Multiple time frame analysis, is clearly a "You Problem".

Rant on about how MTF doesn't work and I will show you multiple cases of where market forecast based on this analysis is accurate with laser beam precision. Market forecast and then the following charts...not looking through historical to prove my point.

My charts are clear and concise...this is evidence that disputes your rant.

Your rant=
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #556
  • Edited May 11, 2016 9:03am May 10, 2016 9:41am | Edited May 11, 2016 9:03am
Finally I finished my collection.

PS: Not yet, is missing one
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: finally.JPG Size: 121 KB
  • #557
  • May 10, 2016 9:42am May 10, 2016 9:42am
Quoting Atokys
When people talk about Timeframes
And that's why a picture is worth a thousand words.

Quoting Atokys
Multiple Timeframe Analysis
In the spirit of "traders helping traders" this can actually be an extremely useful way of looking at the charts, if for no other reason than try and encourage those who whip themselves into a lather yelling "You can't buy the M15 because the W1 is pointing down", to consider trading each TF on its own merit. In other words, one man's retrace is another man's tr..... damnit, I was about to use the word "tre.."
  • #558
  • May 10, 2016 9:50am May 10, 2016 9:50am
Quoting Magix
{quote} Debunked? Saying you debunked something doesn't actually mean that you did...it just means you said something. Again, more of your worthless rant. Have a look through my historical charts? I superimpose the MTFs on charts and call supply and demand targets to the Pip. Failure to understand candle structure and a Multiple time frame analysis, is clearly a "You Problem". Rant on about how MTF doesn't work and I will show you multiple cases of where market forecast based on this analysis is accurate with laser beam precision. Market forecast...
Alright, you win an internet sir.

To be very honest, im not even sure what you are on about and I only replied out of amusement.

Your overreaction to what really isn't a controversial point (a call for clarity of language in discussion) tickled me at first but now im getting sleepy.

If you want, you can quote me and post again after this, I promise I'll only respond to it tomorrow.
  • #559
  • May 10, 2016 9:51am May 10, 2016 9:51am
Quoting seahorse
Finally I finished my collection. {image}
Another internet for this fine gentleman.
  • #560
  • May 10, 2016 10:02am May 10, 2016 10:02am
Quoting Atokys
{quote} Alright, you win an internet sir. To be very honest, im not even sure what you are on about and I only replied out of amusement. Your overreaction to what really isn't a controversial point (a call for clarity of language in discussion) tickled me at first but now im getting sleepy. If you want, you can quote me and post again after this, I promise I'll only respond to it tomorrow.
Seriously, dude...

Have a look at the chart.

If an MTF analysis doesn't work, or is pseudo-science, how is it that I can call market turns within spread to a couple of pips?

10 hours prior to price touching down ->HERE

Current Chart:

The only way you can fail to see this, is by willing and deliberate ignorance.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: bounce.png Size: 89 KB
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
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