AceTraderFx : Intra-day Market Moving News and Views on Majors

AceTraderFx Apr 25: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views- EUR/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
25 Apr 2016 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - ...... Although euro fell below previous week's low at 1.1234 to a fresh 3-week trough of 1.1218 in Friday's New York session n then marginally lower to 1.1216 ahead of Asian open today, lack of follow-through selling prompted short-covering n price later recovered to 1.1241.

Today, European Commission and ECB will have joint conference in Frankfurt at 06:45GMT. The ECB official website stated that this year's joint ECB/EU Commission conference on financial integration and stability will focus on the further development of the Banking Union and the Capital Markets Union as catalysts for further financial integration in Europe. The ECB Vice-President, Vitor Constancio, and the European Commissioner for Financial Stability, Financial Services and Capital Markets Union, Lord Jonathan Hill, will give keynote speeches.

Moreover, in two high-level panels, a selected group of key policymakers, financial market leaders and academics will discuss the achievements and further steps for the Banking Union as well as the long term vision of the Capital Markets Union and its contribution to financial integration.

At present, initial bids are noted at 1.1220-10 and then 1.1200-1.1190 with stops below 1.1180, whilst offers are reported at 1.1250-60 and then 1.1270-80 with stops above 1.1300.

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AceTraderFx Apr 25: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views GBP/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
25 Apr 2016 09:00GMT

GBP/USD - ..... Although the pound jumped at Monday open and climbed to a near 3-week high of 1.4475 in thin trading conditions due to closure of New Zealand & Australia for ANZAC day holiday as short-term specs bought the pound broadly after U.S. President Obama made an appeal to Britons to remain in the EU over the w/end, lack of follow-through buying quickly led to long liquidation, cable retreated to 1.4422 before recovering to 1.4457 at European open but only to weaken further to 1.4403.

Intra-day rebound suggests sideways trading is in store ahead of release of U.K. CBI trends order for April, street forecast is look for a reading of -15 vs previous reading of -14.

Offers are tipped at 1.4445/55 and more above with stops touted above 1.4480.
Bids are noted at 1.4405-00 with stops below there.

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AceTraderFx Apr 26: Intra-Day News and Views & data to be released today (USD/JPY)

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
26 Apr 2016 01:12GMT

USD/JPY - ....... Although price retreated after an initial rise to a fresh 3-week peak at 111.91 ahead of Asian open yesterday, renewed selling in yen contained intra-day weakness at 110.84 at New York open and price later recovered to 111.33 before edging lower to 110.96 in Tokyo morning on Tuesday.

Today's focus for the greenback will be on the release of U.S. durable goods orders and U.S. consumer confidence at 12:30GMT and 14:00GMT respectively. Market expects the U.S. durable goods orders in March to turn back into positive territory at +1.8% compare to -3.0% in preceding month, whilst consumer confidence to drop slightly to 96.0 in April from 96.2 in previous reading.
In addition, the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee will start its regular monthly meeting today and announce its latest monetary policy decision n statement in New York afternoon on Wed.

At present, bids are reported at 111.00-110.90 and more at 110.80-70 with mixture of bids and stops at 110.60-40 region.
On the upside, offers are noted at 111.40-50 and then 111.60-70 with stops above 111.90.

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AceTraderFx Apr 27: Intra-Day News and Views & data to be released today (USD/JPY)

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
27 Apr 2016 01:12GMT

USD/JPY - ...... Dlr rebounded after a brief selloff to 110.67 in European morning yesterday due to renewed broad-based selling in yen on improved risk appetites. Later, price ratcheted higher to 111.47 in o/n New York before retreating to 111.14 shortly after Asian open on Wednesday.

Today, investors should pay attention to the release U.S. Pending home sales and U.S. trade balance for March in New York morning, then the announcement of latest Fed's monetary policy and statement in New York afternoon (18:00GMT and 18:30GMT respectively). Having said that, the FOMC is expected to leave its benchmark rate unchanged in a range of 0.25% to 0.50% n with virtually no expectations for a rate increase, and no press conference or economic projections, it could be one of the most low-key Fed events.

At present, bids are noted at 111.10-00 and more 110.90-80 with stops below 110.60, whilst offers are reported at 111.30-40 and then 111.60-70 with stops above 111.90.

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AceTraderFx Apr 27: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (GBP/USD)

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
27 Apr 201 05:00GMT

GBP/USD - 1.4586... The British pound extended its recent ascent against the usd and rallied to a high of 1.4640 in New York morning on Tuesday after release of poor U.S. durable goods data, however, IMC poll showed 'Out' campaign in the lead and price later retreated to 1.4565 in o/n New York before edging higher in tandem with euro after Asian open on Wednesday.

Today focus for the British pound will be on the release of UK GDP data in European morning (08:30GMT).
Market expects the UK's economic growth to slow down in the first quarter as weakening global growth has caused ructions in financial markets while fears that the country will leave the European Union after an in-out referendum in June prompted companies to hold back on investment and hiring also weigh on the prospects for the UK's economy.

At the moment, bids are noted at 1.4580-70 and then 1.4560-50 with mixture of bids and stops at 1.4540-20 region.
On the upside, offers are noted at 1.4610-20 and more at 1.4630-50 region with stops above 1.4670.

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AceTraderFx Apr 27: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (GBP/USD)

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
27 Apr 201 09:00GMT

GBP/USD - ...... Despite cable's fall from 1.4622 to 1.4547 in European morning, price pared intra- day loss on short-covering after release of in-line U.K. GDP.
Britain's economy slowed in the first three months of the year and again leaned on the services sector for growth, according to official data on Wednesday.
The Office for National Statistics(ONS) reported that the first-quarter gross domestic product grew by 0.4 percent, down from 0.6 percent in the three months to December 2015 and in line with economists' forecasts of a 0.4 percent expansion,
and it had no evidence for or against the slowdown being linked to uncertainty around Britain's June 23 referendum on European Union membership, but business surveys suggest it is taking a toll on activity and investment.
The preliminary reading of gross domestic product does not include measures like investment and trade that would more readily reflect Brexit-related uncertainty, or a slowing global economy.

Output in the three months to March was 2.1 percent higher than a year earlier, matching the fourth quarter's growth rate that was also the weakest since the third quarter of 2013 but it was still slightly stronger than expected by economists.

The Bank of England has said that interpreting economic data in the run-up to the referendum is likely to be tricky but it has pointed to signs that uncertainty around the Brexit vote is weighing on business investment.

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AceTraderFx Apr 28: Intra-Day News and Views & data to be released today (USD/JPY)

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
28 Apr 2016 01:12GMT

USD/JPY - ...... Despite dlr's volatile swings in post-FOMC New York session, price found renewed buying at 111.08 and later climbed above o/n New York high of 111.75 to 111.86 in Tokyo morning on Thursday due to renewed broad-based gain in usd.

Today's focus for the greenback will be on the release of U.S. GDP, PCE n weekly jobless claims at 12:30GMT.
Market expects the U.S. economy to slowdown to 0.7% in Q1 compare to 1.4% in previous quarter.
Meanwhile, forecast for the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits last week is to be 260K compare to previous reading of 247K.

At present, bids are noted at 111.60-50 and then 111.40-30 with stops below 111.20, whilst offers are noted ahead of Monday's 3-week peak at 111.91 with stops above there, however, selling interest from various accounts is tipped at 112.00-20 region.

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AceTraderFx Apr 29: Intra-Day News and Views & data to be released today (USD/JPY)

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
29 Apr 2016 01:12GMT

USD/JPY - ...... Although dlr stabilized in o/n New York after falling the most in 5-year from 111.88 (Asia) to as low as 108.88 due to surprised BoJ's unchanged monetary policy decision, price had fallen again after meeting renewed selling at 108.20 ahead of Asian open and weakened to 107.75 in Tokyo morning.

Today's focus for the greenback will be on the release of a slew of U.S. data in New York session, these include Personal Consumption, Personal Income, PCE, Employment Cost, Chicago PMI, and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment. Later, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President John Williams will give a panel presentation on 'Systemic Risk - Inevitable or Preventable?' before the Milken Institute 2016 Global Conference at 21:30GMT.

At present, stops below April's 17-month trough at 107.63 are now in focus.
However, bids from various accounts are tipped at 107.50-30 region with mixture of bids and stops at 107.20-00.
On the upside, offers are noted at 108.00-10 and then 108.20-30 with stops above 108.50.

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AceTraderFx Apr 29: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views- EUR/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
29 Apr 2016 04:18GMT

EUR/USD - ....... Although euro retreated after a brief rise to a session high of 1.1368 in Europe on Thursday, price rebounded from 1.1310 in New York due to renewed broad-based weakness in usd and later climbed to 1.1363 in o/n New York, then 1.1366 shortly after Asian open on Friday.

Main focus for the single currency today will be on the release of euro zone's inflation and GDP data at 09:00GMT.
Having said, investors should also take note to the release of Germany's retail sales, France's CPI, GDP and PPI, and Italy's CPI earlier in European session.

As price has edged higher after Asian open, suggesting consolidation with upside bias would be seen, so, buying the eur/usd pair on dips is recommended.
At present, bids are noted at 1.1350-40 and then 1.1330-20 with stops below there, whilst offers are reported at 1.1380-90 and more at 1.1400-1.1410 with stops above 1.1430.

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AceTraderFx Apr 29: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views- EUR/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
29 Apr 2016 08:18GMT

EUR/USD- ..... Reuters reported German retail sales dropped by 1.1 percent in March, their biggest monthly fall in 1-1/2 years, casting a shadow over expectations that consumer spending will propel growth in Europe's largest economy as foreign trade weakens.
The volatile indicator, which is often subject to revision, confounded expectations in a Reuters poll for a 0.3 percent rise on the month, data from the Federal Statistics Office showed on Friday. The data for February was revised up to an unchanged reading from a previously reported fall of 0.4 percent.
On the year, retail sales climbed by 0.7 percent in real terms, a marked slowdown compared with an upwardly revised increase of 5.5 percent the previous month. Economists polled by Reuters had expected a much stronger rise of 2.2 percent.

While Italy's unemployment rate fell to 11.4 percent in March, the lowest since December 2012, as some 90,000 jobs were created from the month before, data showed on Friday in a boost for Prime Minister Matteo Renzi.
March's jobless rate was below all five forecasts in a Reuters survey of analysts which had pointed to 11.7 percent. February's rate was revised down slightly to 11.6 percent from a previously reported 11.7 percent.
March's data brings the number of those in work back to January's level, ISTAT said, after 87,000 jobs were lost in February. In the first quarter as a whole, employment was up by a modest 17,000 compared with the last quarter of 2015.
The youth unemployment rate, measuring job seekers between 15 and 24 years old, fell sharply in March to 36.7 percent from 38.2 percent in February, to hit its lowest since October 2012.

Italy's overall employment rate, which is one of the lowest in the euro zone, rose in March to 56.7 percent from 56.5 percent the month before.
Renzi adopted a contested labour reform last year easing firing restrictions in large firms and offering temporary fiscal incentives for employers who offer workers permanent contracts rather than temporary ones.

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AceTraderFx May 3: Intra-Day News and Views & data to be released today (USD/JPY)

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
03 May 2016 02:49GMT

USD/JPY - ...... Dlr is nursing loss in then Tokyo trading as Japan's financial markets (markets will re-open on Friday) are closed for so-called Golden Week holiday.
The pair met renewed selling at 106.46 just ahead of Asian opening on what traders cited as speculative yen-buying, although price briefly penetrated yesterday's 18-month trough of 106.14 to 106.05, price quickly recovered on short-covering and climbed back to 106.31, suggesting range trading is in store in European morning session.

As indicated in yesterday's update, there is report of buying interest at 106.10-00 area (some from Japanese importers) with some stops touted below 106.00.
Some offers are tipped at 106.40/50 and more at 106.75/85 with stops above there, more stops are reported above 107.00.

Pay attention to release of U.S. ISM New York index as dlr briefly fell in New York morning on weaker-than-expected ISM mfg PMI.

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AceTraderFx May 4: Intra-Day News and Views & data to be released today (USD/JPY)

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
04 May 2016 02:49GMT

USD/JPY - ...... The pair swung 'wildly' in hectic trading on Wed as traders cited poor liquidity due to closure of Japanese financial market for the 3-day Golden Week holiday which began on Tuesday.
Dlr closed near the day's high at 106.67 in New York and price spike up to 107.47 in Australian morning on stop-loss buying before quickly falling back to as low as 106.52 at Asian open.
However, renewed wave of broad-based usd buying lifted the pair back to 107.25/26.

Looks like price would gyrate inside indicated Asian range until European open with a firm bias due to intra-day usd's firmness.
Bids are noted at 106.80 n more at 106.60-50 with stops below there. Offers are reported at 107.40/50 with stops touted above there.

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AceTraderFx May 4: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views- EUR/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
04 May 2016 03:18GMT

EUR/USD - ..... In total stark contrast to yesterday's firmness in Asia, the single currency extended yesterday's decline in Asia due to renewed usd's broad-based strength, price fell below o/n New York low of 1.1501 to 1.1491 in Aust., despit a brief recovery to 1.1509 due to initial decline in dlr/yen, subsequent bounce in the pair knocked euro lower to 1.1477.

Despite yesterday's resumption of uptrend to an 8-month peak of 1.1617, subsequent selloff in New York session and intra-day weakness suggests euro would trade below this temporary top ahead of Friday's key U.S. jobs data.
The fact the price is trading near Asian low, beware of more weakness due to long liquidation on further capitulation from euro bulls.
Offers are noted at 1.1505/10 n more at 1.1535/40. A mixture of bids and stops is touted at 1.1470/65.

Today is another PMI day in the euro zone. Italy will release Markit services PMI for April, then France, Germany and the EU. Then at 09:00GMT, we have EU March retail sales.

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AceTraderFx May 4: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (GBP/USD)

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
04 May 3 09:00GMT

GPB/USD - 1.4499.. Although the British pound traded in sideways manner in Asia and briefly edged up to 1.4572 in early European morning, price tumbled to 1.4482 (Reuters) in Europe on broad-based selling of sterling especially vs euro due to the release of weaker-than-expected UK services PMI.

UK construction sector activity in April showed its weakest growth in almost three years amid stalling new business volumes, industry data showed.

In a report, market research firm Markit and the Chartered Institute of Purchasing & Supply said that their U.K. construction purchasing managers' index fell to a seasonally adjusted 52.0 last month from March's reading of 54.2. That was its slowest pace since June 2013.

Offers are now seen at 1.4530/40 and more above at 1.4560/70 with stops building up above there whilst initial bids are noted at 1.4420/30, suggesting selling on pullback is favored.

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AceTraderFx May 5: Intra-Day News and Views & data to be released today (USD/JPY)

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
05 May 2016 01:49GMT

USD/JPY - ..... Japanese PM Shinzo Abe and German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that they wanted to avoid turbulence on foreign exchange markets and Abe said Tokyo would act if necessary.
The yen surged to an 18-month high against the dollar after the Bank of Japan held off expanding monetary stimulus last week, defying market expectations for action even as soft global demand, an unwelcome rise in the yen and weak consumption threatened to derail a fragile economic recovery.

Abe told reporters that they are seeing very speculative, fast movements (on the currency markets), adding that the Group of 20 leading world economies had already agreed that the targeted political measures to influence currency rates were undesirable and the G20 must aim for stable currency rates.
Merkel said there were no winners from competitive currency devaluations, adding that the "comparative stability of currencies to one another is of great value".

While Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda commented that the yen's recent gains may hurt the country's economy, stressing his readiness to expand monetary stimulus if the risks threaten to keep the central bank from hitting its 2 percent inflation target.

Data to be released on Thursday:

Australia retail sales, imports, exports, trade balance, China Caixin service PMI, U.K. Markit service PMI, U.S. initial jobless claims and Canada building permits.

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AceTraderFx May 6: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views - AUD/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
06 May 2016 02:40GMT

AUD/USD - .... Aussie tumbled after release of 'dovish' RBA's quaterly report. Reuters reported Australia's central bank slashed its inflation forecasts on Friday and warned that the outlook for wages and price pressures were a key uncertainty, suggesting the door was open to another cut in interest rates.
In its 66-page quarterly report, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) gave no explicit guidance that it will ease again as it maintained its growth projections for a gradual strengthening through mid-2018.

On Tuesday, the RBA cut its cash rate by 25 basis points to an all time low of 1.75 percent, citing surprisingly low inflation readings for the first quarter.
RBA now sees underlying inflation at just 1 to 2 percent for 2016, down from a previous forecast of 2 to 3 percent. The central bank aims to keep inflation withing a 2 to 3 percent band over the medium term.
It expected only a modest pick up to 1.5 to 2.5 percent through to mid-2018. The downward revision reflected an expectation that domestic pressures, including labour costs, will pick up more gradually than previously anticipated, the central bank explained.

RBA cut forecasts for wage growth and warned it would remain around current low levels for longer than previously forecast and pick up only very gradually. This was consistent with the movement of workers from highly paid mining-related jobs to other employment.
RBA noted on the outlook for domestic cost pressures is a key source of uncertainty, and adding another big unknown is how the exchange rate will react to a myriad of overseas risks. It may respond to a number of influences, including any unanticipated changes to the outlook for growth in China, commodity prices or the monetary policy decisions of the major central banks. It therefore represents a significant source of uncertainty for the forecasts of inflation, as well as for the outlook for growth in activity.

For now, the central bank is maintaining its forecasts for gross domestic product growth. It sees the economy growing at a 2.5 to 3.5 percent pace for 2016, lifting slightly to 3 to 4 percent by mid-2018, thanks to low interest rates and a weaker local dollar.
The exchange rate fell sharply from 2013 to late 2015. It reacted negatively to Tuesday's rate cut decision, but held above the troughs reached in September.

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AceTraderFx May 6: Intra-Day News and Views & data to be released today (USD/JPY)

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
06 May 2016 05:00GMT

USD/JPY - ..... Despite y'day's intra-day rally from 106.80 to 107.50 in New York morning after Japanese PM Abe's yen comments (see Thur's 13:36GMT update), the pair moved sideways in New York afternoon. Price initual edged higher at 107.42 at Asian open but fell to 107.04 on renewed cross-buying in yen, led by active selling in aud/yen cross after RBA downgraded its inflation outlook in in quarterly Monetary Policy Statement released at 01:30GMT.

Japanese financial reopen today after 3 days of closure due to Golden Week holiday and with the Nikkie down 113 points together with losses in Asian bourses, consolidation with downside bias is expected in European morning.

Offers are tipped at 107.20/30 and more above with some stops reported above 107.50. Initial bids are noted at 107.00-80 area with stops touted below there.

All eyes are on U.S. jobs report, market will pay attention to April non-farm payrolls data due out at 12:30GMT which is expected to show a rise of 200k as well as average wage earnings, the latter seem to attract more attention and street forecast is looking for a month growth of 0.3% vs the same in previous reading, a lower-than-expected reading will weigh on the greenback an vice versa.

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AceTraderFx May 9: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views - USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
09 May 2016 01:20GMT

USD/JPY - ...... The greenback found renewed support in New Zealand and gained in Australia, hitting session high at 107.63 at Tokyo open due to the initial rise in Nikkei-225.
However, profit-taking there capped current rise and pressured the pair lower.
Since there is no major data due from U.S. today, Asian and European traders will continue to focus on Friday's jobs report and the implications it would have on the upcoming FOMC meeting.

Bids are now seen at 107.20/30 and more below at 107.00/10 with stops building up above there whilst initial offers are noted at 107.90/00, suggesting near term upside bias remains, hence buying on dips is favored.

Breaking news from Reuters, quoting from BoJ's March meeting minutes:
Some members of BOJ had noted that the attention should be focused to fact consumer sentiment indicators which had shown somewhat a sharp deterioration due to market turbulence. They have agreed that underlying trend in inflation had been improving steadily.

The yr-on-yr increase in CPI, excluding fresh food and energy, would come in lower than previously projected from early spring and that there had been adverse effects from adoption of negative rate policy, such as heightening anxiety among financial institutions and depositors over the policy.
A few of them commented that the portfolio rebalancing under QQE with a negative interest rate had not necessarily exerted its intended effects.

While the government representatives commented that the attention should be paid to increasing uncertainty in overseas economies, effects of market fluctuations on Japan's economy and they hoped BoJ would continued thoroughly in explaining its negative rate policy, as this was somewhat technical and might be hard to understand for the public.

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AceTraderFx May 09: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views- EUR/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
09 May 2016 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - ....... The singe currency came under renewed selling pressure in New Zealand and briefly dropped below Friday's New York low at 1.1387 to 1.1380 at Asian open on dlr's broad-based strength.
However, euro pared its losses and staged a short-covering rebound to 1.1405 in Asian morning before retreating again.

Germany will release its factory orders at 06:00GMT. Street forecast for m/m reading is 0.7% vs previous figure of -1.2%.

Offers are now seen at 1.1420/30 and more above at 1.1450/60 with stops building up above there whilst initial bids are noted at 1.1340/50, suggesting selling on pullback is the way to go.

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AceTraderFx May 10: Intra-Day News and Views & data to be released today (USD/JPY)

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
10 May 2016 02:00GMT

USD/JPY - ....... The greenback rallied yesterday from Asian low at 107.23 to as high as 108.60 in New York morning as Japan's FinMin Aso said BoJ was ready to intervene in the FX market if needed. Dlr retreated briefly to 108.26 on profit-taking before rebounding again to 108.49 in Australia today, then marginally higher to 108.62 at Tokyo open due to the initial rise in Nikkei-225 index.

Pay attention to the release of U.S. wholesale inventories and sales at 14:00GMT.
Street forecasts are -0.1% n 0.3% vs previous readings of -0.5% and -0.2% respectively.

Bids are now seen at 108.20/30 and more below at 108.00/10 with stops building up below there whilst initial offers are noted at 108.80/90, suggesting buying on intra-day pullback is favored.

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