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Just Another A/U Thread...

  • #741
  • May 6, 2016 12:57pm May 6, 2016 12:57pm
No rally after poor USD data. The big boys tipped their hands again.

Have a good weekend everyone!
  • #742
  • May 6, 2016 3:00pm May 6, 2016 3:00pm
Quoting PA is King
No rally after poor USD data. The big boys tipped their hands again. Have a good weekend everyone!
AU Rally will resume soon, Just she likes to have EU along way up, but seems EU promised to be back for rally maybe on Tuesday!
...
  • #743
  • May 9, 2016 7:02am May 9, 2016 7:02am
Quoting 10cents
{quote} So what happened to your 0.7020 AU short? You closed it for -600 pips or still holding?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot.png Size: 244 KB
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #744
  • May 9, 2016 7:19am May 9, 2016 7:19am
Quoting PaulDaemon
{quote} {image}
hi paul -$8249 on his account with swap whooooooooooooo $2.00 well lesson is holding on to a losing trade to long the swap will eat your account however the so called experts to day say aud is heading for 65 cent but I have heard this before fkn
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
  • #745
  • May 9, 2016 7:22am May 9, 2016 7:22am
Quoting inRoozaan
{quote} AU Rally will resume soon, Just she likes to have EU along way up, but seems EU promised to be back for rally maybe on Tuesday!
hi looking forward to it
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
  • #746
  • May 9, 2016 7:28am May 9, 2016 7:28am
Quoting Aussi
{quote} hi paul -$8249 on his account with swap whooooooooooooo $2.00 well lesson is holding on to a losing trade to long the swap will eat your account however the so called experts to day say aud is heading for 65 cent but I have heard this before fkn
the swaps are huge but didnt expect aussie to keep going up the way it did
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #747
  • May 9, 2016 7:32am May 9, 2016 7:32am
Quoting PaulDaemon
{quote} the swaps are huge but didnt expect aussie to keep going up the way it did
if the experts are right money will flow back
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
  • #748
  • May 11, 2016 10:27am May 11, 2016 10:27am
Hi Guys,

I've been a bit quite lately...but it's getting near the end of the school year for me kids. Things are getting a bit busy at home and I probably won't be posting much over the summer. But for now, as I mentioned last week...it looks like shorts are on the table again for Aussie. So sell the rallies. And for those who are looking for longs...in order to sell the rallies, you have to have a rally...which means you can buy the dips! Just be careful and trade smart...I think the odds are more in favor of shorts now, but that's not to say you can't trade both ways if you know what you're doing and don't get greedy!

Cheers!
  • #749
  • May 11, 2016 3:33pm May 11, 2016 3:33pm
Quoting PA is King
Hi Guys, I've been a bit quite lately...but it's getting near the end of the school year for me kids. Things are getting a bit busy at home and I probably won't be posting much over the summer. But for now, as I mentioned last week...it looks like shorts are on the table again for Aussie. So sell the rallies. And for those who are looking for longs...in order to sell the rallies, you have to have a rally...which means you can buy the dips! Just be careful and trade smart...I think the odds are more in favor of shorts now, but that's not to say...
Good to see you back but sell the rallies and buy the dips means pretty much a ranging market. Any breakout levels you're watching?
Don't get mad, get even!
  • #750
  • May 11, 2016 9:44pm May 11, 2016 9:44pm
Quoting stulic
{quote} Good to see you back but sell the rallies and buy the dips means pretty much a ranging market. Any breakout levels you're watching?
I wouldnt call it a ranging market yet. I think the selloffs will be larger than the rallies, so overall it should trend down. How far down? I have no idea...I don't make the market, I just trade it.
  • #751
  • May 11, 2016 9:47pm May 11, 2016 9:47pm
As for levels, I can see it possibly retesting .7450-7500 on the top side and maybe .7200 or .7000 on the bottom side.
  • #752
  • May 11, 2016 9:55pm May 11, 2016 9:55pm
Quoting PA is King
{quote} I don't make the market, I just trade it.
I love your quote, You should use it as your sign off .
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #753
  • May 11, 2016 9:57pm May 11, 2016 9:57pm
Quoting PA is King
As for levels, I can see it possibly retesting .7450-7500 on the top side and maybe .7200 or .7000 on the bottom side.
There is a nice support level around the .72 mark, this is where I expect it to go after then anyone knows.
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #754
  • May 11, 2016 11:25pm May 11, 2016 11:25pm
Quoting PaulDaemon
{quote} I love your quote, You should use it as your sign off .
It's not exactly true. We all make the market. Trading - is making the market.
  • #755
  • May 12, 2016 12:05am May 12, 2016 12:05am
Quoting cold chisel
{quote} It's not exactly true. We all make the market. Trading - is making the market.
Yes to a degree.
Im doing a course on foreign exchange atm, What i am learning it takes individual trades of at least 200 million$ to influence the market direction in normal trading conditions. Also the RBA trades the fx markets on a daily basis and can initiate trend changes and can stop price moving in a particular direction.

Quote "The RBA may also consider intervening in the market when conditions threaten to become disorderly. High volatility or erratic movements of the exchange rate may result in intervention to help restore order."

I believe there is no way they would let the AUD back above .80. When they said in Feb they wanted it down to .65

But as a individual retail trader there is no way in influence the market direction.
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #756
  • May 12, 2016 12:28am May 12, 2016 12:28am
Some transactions undertaken by the Reserve Bank are intended to influence the exchange rate or conditions in the market for foreign exchange. Australia has operated a floating exchange rate regime for over thirty years and, over time, intervention by the Bank has become less frequent as the market has developed, hedging foreign currency risk has become more efficient and as awareness of the benefits of a floating exchange rate regime has grown. Nonetheless, the Reserve Bank has always retained the discretion to intervene in the foreign exchange market to address dysfunction and/or a significant misalignment in the value of the Australian dollar. Transactions undertaken for these purposes would usually be effected in the spot market. The Bank provides daily data (with a lag) on foreign exchange intervention on its website.
The Reserve Bank also operates in the foreign exchange market from time to time to manage the level of its foreign currency holdings. Traditionally, this has involved the Bank offsetting changes in its holdings as a result of prior intervention. To the extent that these transactions involve a change in the net foreign currency position of the Bank, they could be described as intervention. In practice, however, they differ from intervention transactions in that they are executed in a way that minimises their impact on the exchange rate and on market conditions more generally. They are typically executed in small amounts over long periods.

http://www.rba.gov.au/mkt-operations/intl-mkt-oper.html
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #757
  • May 12, 2016 12:37am May 12, 2016 12:37am
Quoting PaulDaemon
{quote} Yes to a degree. Im doing a course on foreign exchange atm, What i am learning it takes individual trades of at least 200 million$ to influence the market direction in normal trading conditions. Also the RBA trades the fx markets on a daily basis and can initiate trend changes and can stop price moving in a particular direction. Quote "The RBA may also consider intervening in the market when conditions threaten to become disorderly. High volatility or erratic movements of the exchange rate may result in intervention to help restore order."...
Their ability to fight a demand in the currency is very limited. They couldn't do anything to prevent it to shoot above $1.10 USD because they don't have a foreign currency war chest as the SNB does. Hell Hockey had to prop them up with 8 billion out of the budget.
All they can do is lower the cash rate and the Aussie climbing back towards parity would mean zero interest rates.
At below 2% it's not as attractive anymore to park billions of foreign capital in Australia just for the interests sake even tho banks can even get paid to borrow in Europe.
They'll rather buy german stocks and hedge with bonds, hence the DAX above 10,000...
Don't get mad, get even!
  • #758
  • May 12, 2016 1:08am May 12, 2016 1:08am
Quoting stulic
{quote} Their ability to fight a demand in the currency is very limited. They couldn't do anything to prevent it to shoot above $1.10 USD because they don't have a foreign currency war chest as the SNB does. Hell Hockey had to prop them up with 8 billion out of the budget. All they can do is lower the cash rate and the Aussie climbing back towards parity would mean zero interest rates. At below 2% it's not as attractive anymore to park billions of foreign capital in Australia just for the interests sake even tho banks can even get paid to borrow...
Yes of course its limited but everything comes and goes in cycles and their role is to make sure the economy runs in sync and will do what they can to do so. All it takes is initiation and the crowd will follow.

Below a historical chart of aud/usd.

Attached Image
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #759
  • May 12, 2016 6:53am May 12, 2016 6:53am
Quoting PaulDaemon
{quote} Yes to a degree. Im doing a course on foreign exchange atm, What i am learning it takes individual trades of at least 200 million$ to influence the market direction in normal trading conditions. Also the RBA trades the fx markets on a daily basis and can initiate trend changes and can stop price moving in a particular direction. Quote "The RBA may also consider intervening in the market when conditions threaten to become disorderly. High volatility or erratic movements of the exchange rate may result in intervention to help restore order."...

Pay no attention to cold chisel...most of his comments on here are negative and of no substance. It would be nice if he would contribute some positive posts.

But I agree with you, I'm a retail trader and cannot control the market...therefore I can only trade it!

Cheers!
  • #760
  • May 12, 2016 7:01am May 12, 2016 7:01am
Quoting PA is King
As for levels, I can see it possibly retesting .7450-7500 on the top side and maybe .7200 or .7000 on the bottom side.
I'm aiming to short @ 0.749 esp with the interest rates looking up for USA and down for Aust, not to mention the RBA stating they wish it to be 0.65
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