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High Reward to Risk Trading

  • #41
  • May 8, 2016 4:54am May 8, 2016 4:54am
Quoting skyway
Timeframe ? Intraday or swing or large tf above daily?
H1 to Monthly for analysis.
M1 to H1 for entry.

Mostly Intrady
No guts, no glory
  • #42
  • May 8, 2016 4:55am May 8, 2016 4:55am
Quoting FerruFx
{quote} You are wrong. High win rate doesn't necessary mean you are profitable. You can have a 99% win rate and be a loser ... Like you can have a 1% win rate and be profitable. Win rate is nothing without the associated risk:reward ...
Think again. If one's trade is with 80% win rate for 1:1 risk:reward, he can make more money that you and can mantain a very low drawdown even if you would have a 40% win rate and 1:3 risk:reward.

Risk reward is nothing without the winning rate. First win rate, second risk:reward.
Money moves the market, not an indicator.
  • #43
  • May 8, 2016 5:04am May 8, 2016 5:04am
Quoting andoseg2
{quote} Think again. If one's trade is with 80% win rate for 1:1 risk:reward, he can make more money that you and can mantain a very low drawdown even if you would have a 40% win rate and 1:3 risk:reward. Risk reward is nothing without the winning rate. First win rate, second risk:reward.
They are both factors of expectancy.
And they are "usually" negatively correlated.

High win rate is a result of :

  1. we are right most of the time (which I am not).
  2. we have a large stop loss and small profit target (which I don't like).

High Reward to Risk is a result of:

  1. we are wrong most of the time (which I am)
  2. We have a small stop and large profit target (which I like).

No guts, no glory
  • #44
  • May 8, 2016 5:10am May 8, 2016 5:10am
Quoting andoseg2
{quote} Think again. If one's trade is with 80% win rate for 1:1 risk:reward, he can make more money that you and can mantain a very low drawdown even if you would have a 40% win rate and 1:3 risk:reward. Risk reward is nothing without the winning rate. First win rate, second risk:reward.
take 100 trades risk 1%, stops lets say 5 pips. 99 losers = -495 pips.​
1 winner of 500 pips minimum = 500 pips
which equals 5 pips profit
  • #45
  • May 8, 2016 5:11am May 8, 2016 5:11am
Quoting abokwaik
{quote} They are both factors of expectancy. And they are "usually" negatively correlated. High win rate is a result of : we are right most of the time (which I am not). we have a large stop loss and small profit target (which I don't like). High Reward to Risk is a result of: we are wrong most of the time (which I am) We have a small stop and large profit target (which I like).
You must be aware that trading on high win rate doesn't mean what you explain here.
Money moves the market, not an indicator.
  • #46
  • May 8, 2016 5:13am May 8, 2016 5:13am
Quoting Don96
{quote} take 100 trades risk 1%, stops lets say 5 pips. 99 losers = -495 pips.​ 1 winner of 500 pips minimum = 500 pips which equals 5 pips profit
​and that's if you have a really really really bad win rate such as that one.
I mean lets say out of those 100 trades you have 5 that bank you 300 pips. that's 1500 pips... -475 and well 1025 profit isn't bad eh?

I know its all extreme but its fact and makes it clearer and easy to work out

you do NOT need a high win rate to be profitable, period.
  • #47
  • May 8, 2016 5:15am May 8, 2016 5:15am
Quoting andoseg2
{quote} Think again. If one's trade is with 80% win rate for 1:1 risk:reward, he can make more money that you and can mantain a very low drawdown even if you would have a 40% win rate and 1:3 risk:reward. Risk reward is nothing without the winning rate. First win rate, second risk:reward.
[a] 80% win rate for 1:1 risk:reward

8 wins 2 losses = 8*1 - 2*1 = 6

[b] 40% win rate and 1:3 risk:reward

4 wins 6 losses = 4*3 - 6*1 = 6

If both the win rates improve by +10%,

[a] 90% win rate for 1:1 risk:reward

9 wins 1 losses = 9*1 - 1*1 = 8

[b] 50% win rate and 1:3 risk:reward

5 wins 5 losses = 5*3 - 5*1 = 10

The trader who favours 'First win rate, second risk:reward' has not found possible strategy with high risk:reward.

Likewise, the trader who favours 'First high risk:reward, second win rate' has not found possible strategy with high win rate.

Higher probability of outcome beyond the math is important determinant. See example above.

Rate of occurrence is also another factor to consider in the equation.
  • #48
  • May 8, 2016 5:21am May 8, 2016 5:21am
Quoting Don96
{quote} ​ you do NOT need a high win rate to be profitable, period.
That is the excuse of those who will never climb the next stair. Think again, tons of e-books written by those that sustain right what you sustain. Now ask yourself, why don't you make money if what they teach you is true ?

Quoting skyway
{quote} [a] 80% win rate for 1:1 risk:reward 8 wins 2 losses = 8*1 - 2*1 = 6 40% win rate and 1:3 risk:reward 4 wins 6 losses = 4*3 - 6*1 = 6 If both the win rates improve by +10%, [a] 90% win rate for 1:1 risk:reward 9 wins 1 losses = 9*1 - 1*1 = 8 50% win rate and 1:3 risk:reward 5 wins 5 losses = 5*3 - 5*1 = 10 The trader who favours 'First win rate, second risk:reward' has not found possible strategy with high risk:reward. Likewise, the trader who favours 'First high risk:reward, second win rate' has not found possible strategy with high...
Did you learn math with wild mans in Masai Mara ? Check again your math
Money moves the market, not an indicator.
  • #49
  • May 8, 2016 5:31am May 8, 2016 5:31am
Quoting andoseg2
{quote} That is the excuse of those who will never climb the next stair. Think again, tons of e-books written by those that sustain right what you sustain. Now ask yourself, why don't you make money if what they teach you is true ?
I make money, and I'm not saying I trade the way I wrote.... I'm just proving that it's possible. Also if your trading 5 pip SL and getting 500 pips it means you are good at choosing good trades, period. It's factual and there isn't anything statistical to back up what you said.
  • #50
  • May 8, 2016 5:38am May 8, 2016 5:38am
Quoting andoseg2
{quote} That is the excuse of those who will never climb the next stair. Think again, tons of e-books written by those that sustain right what you sustain. Now ask yourself, why don't you make money if what they teach you is true ? {quote} Did you learn math with wild mans in Masai Mara ? Check again your math
Wow ! You're truly passionate with your 'First win rate, second risk:reward', everything else is trash.

All power and green pips to you master guru andoseg2. Thanks for your great tip.
  • #51
  • May 8, 2016 5:41am May 8, 2016 5:41am
Quoting Don96
{quote} ​and that's if you have a really really really bad win rate such as that one. I mean lets say out of those 100 trades you have 5 that bank you 300 pips. that's 1500 pips... -475 and well 1025 profit isn't bad eh? I know its all extreme but its fact and makes it clearer and easy to work out you do NOT need a high win rate to be profitable, period.
+60% must surely be desirable. +70% requires low DD with good timing. Timing requires patience & discipline.
  • #52
  • May 8, 2016 5:49am May 8, 2016 5:49am
Quoting skyway
{quote} Wow ! You're truly passionate with your 'First win rate, second risk:reward', everything else is trash. All power and green pips to you master guru andoseg2. Thanks for your great tip.
Buddy, first learn math, second correct your calculation, third dare to talk to me. I don't know why I lose my time with such rookie.

Bye
Money moves the market, not an indicator.
  • #53
  • May 8, 2016 5:57am May 8, 2016 5:57am
Quoting andoseg2
{quote} Buddy, first learn math, second correct your calculation, third dare to talk to me. I don't know why I lose my time with such rookie. Bye
Most of such posters like master guru andoseg don't make money from trading. They're perennial losers that come on forums to let go off their steam. I'm not your buddy, tata. Now, back to high reward to risk discussion.
  • #54
  • May 8, 2016 5:58am May 8, 2016 5:58am
This is the indicator version of Need4Speed EA (Bull Bear Power).

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: bb_power_01.PNG Size: 42 KB


For more details on how this works, please refer to Need4Speed thread.
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 BB_Power_01.ex4   57 KB | 674 downloads
No guts, no glory
  • #55
  • May 8, 2016 6:05am May 8, 2016 6:05am
Suggested Settings for BB_Power Speed:

  1. 20 points per second on (EU, GU)
  2. 15 points per second on (UJ, UC, AU, NU)
  3. 35 points per second on Gold.

Suggested Settings for LVC.

  1. Default settings on all pairs.

No guts, no glory
  • #56
  • May 8, 2016 6:09am May 8, 2016 6:09am
Quoting abokwaik
Suggested Settings for BB_Power Speed: 20 points per second on (EU, GU) 15 points per second on (UJ, UC, AU, NU) 35 points per second on Gold. Suggested Settings for LVC. Default settings on all pairs.
All set for the Market open tomorrow Thanks Khalil
  • #57
  • May 8, 2016 6:17am May 8, 2016 6:17am
Quoting andoseg2
{quote} That is the excuse of those who will never climb the next stair. Think again, tons of e-books written by those that sustain right what you sustain. Now ask yourself, why don't you make money if what they teach you is true ? {quote} Did you learn math with wild mans in Masai Mara ? Check again your math
its also not an excuse, its a fact
  • #58
  • May 8, 2016 6:18am May 8, 2016 6:18am
Please notice that this is a trading concept not a trading system.
Where we :

  1. Sell Highs and Buy Lows (share your methods of identifying these areas)
  2. Aim for high Reward to Risk
  3. Be Patient on Profit Taking and Impatient on accepting a loss
  4. Risk low (suggested 0.1% to 0.5% per trade)

    1. $1 to $5 on a $1000 account
    2. Lot Size 0.02 with stop loss of 5 to 25 pips on a $1000 account.

My focus will be on GU/EU/Gold.

Members are allowed to share their trades on others pairs.

Trades posted as close as possible to entering time, with Entry price, Stop Loss Price, 1st profit target price (optional).
Charts are not necessary at entry time and can be posted later on.

No guts, no glory
  • #59
  • May 8, 2016 6:27am May 8, 2016 6:27am
Quoting gwindy
{quote} All set for the Market open tomorrow Thanks Khalil
Welcome aboard gwindy,

Suggested : London Session Only. Wait for price rejection on lower time frames.
No guts, no glory
  • #60
  • May 8, 2016 6:35am May 8, 2016 6:35am
......
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