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The Big secret to trading success

  • #481
  • May 6, 2016 7:36pm May 6, 2016 7:36pm
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Can I have your attention?

Um, I think I found another secret that the Smart Money has been hiding from you.

I found this on ZH recently and I took a screencap. I put the title of the source article

on the pic:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ZH - 2016-04-19 - Eric Hunsader - The Financial System Is 'Absolutely, Positively Rigged' - YET .png Size: 51 KB


Granted, this is about equities, and I always thought that you couldn't trade stocks

in the wee hours of the morning, but clearly there's a way.
HELL IS EMPTY, ALL THE DEVILS ARE HERE. -- Shakespeare
  • #482
  • May 6, 2016 8:59pm May 6, 2016 8:59pm
Quoting chartsndream
{quote} Agree. All time frames have their own trend. That is key to understand as well.
I never could get my head around how trading multiple time frames works. Perhaps you, or somebody else could explain it to me.

Bye the bye, because I can, and because I like to mess with stuff, I thought I would run an experiment on a couple of days data and see what came out of it.
I ran this over the GBPJPY on 27/4/2016 and the next day 28/4/2016. Now the 27th was the day before the BOJ policy statement, and most traders I suspect were keeping their powder dry. High to Low range of 117 pips. So what I did was open a M1 chart and apply the Fractal that comes standard with Mt4.
I count 352 Fractals, which means on average price changed direction every 4 Minutes. (1440/352). On the M5 chart are 70 Changes of direction (COD). That makes your average wave last only 20 Minutes (1440/70). M15 27 COD or 53 Minutes, M30 14 COD 102 Minutes and the H1 had 6 COD = 240 Minutes each.

Now we all know what happened on the 28th and you would expect a completely different set of stats. Not so.
This day had a high to low of 550 pips. But very little changed.
On the M1 I count 356 Fractals, again a COD every 4 Minutes, 87 COD on M5, 30 COD on M15, 13 COD on M30, and 6 COD on H1.

What is also worthy of note is the drop of 415 pips that happened within one 4 Minute Fractal.

So if you take a trade and it changes direction on you after 4 Minutes, perhaps you missed the latest trend.

Roy.
Polishing my crystal ball
  • #483
  • May 6, 2016 9:04pm May 6, 2016 9:04pm
Quoting chartsndream
{quote} Agree. All time frames have their own trend. That is key to understand as well.
Very important in avoiding excessive DD
  • #484
  • May 6, 2016 9:38pm May 6, 2016 9:38pm
Quoting 30XTCi
{quote} I never could get my head around how trading multiple time frames works. Perhaps you, or somebody else could explain it to me.....
Posted this on another thread and got no bites so i'll post it here.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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And that my friend is all you need to make money in these markets.
  • #485
  • May 6, 2016 11:22pm May 6, 2016 11:22pm
In trading a trader should be smart enough to cut ones loses and dumb enough to let ones profit run.
  • #486
  • May 7, 2016 12:16am May 7, 2016 12:16am
@ Good Lookin, so many charts, i'm confused. It looks like you are trying to show me the same information thru different lenses. I could be wrong.

Now Good Lookin, I'm sorry to say this but your Trade Explorer is not Lookin Good. Can you still trade a live account with ONE CENT left in it?

@ Akt, thanks for the video, but I don't think the Moderators will be too pleased with you peddling your 20 quid an hour commercial stuff all over this side of the forum.

Best go and sell it where it belongs.

Roy
Polishing my crystal ball
  • #487
  • May 7, 2016 1:51am May 7, 2016 1:51am
Quoting 30XTCi
@ Good Lookin, so many charts, i'm confused. It looks like you are trying to show me the same information thru different lenses. I could be wrong. Now Good Lookin, I'm sorry to say this but your Trade Explorer is not Lookin Good. Can you still trade a live account with ONE CENT left in it? @ Akt, thanks for the video, but I don't think the Moderators will be too pleased with you peddling your 20 quid an hour commercial stuff all over this side of the forum. Best go and sell it where it belongs. Roy
My apologies to the thread.
I am not so aux fais with FF fully yet so posted the video in an inappropriate place
I have taken the video down.

Apologies again

Best wishes
Be careful what you think because your thoughts run your life..Solomon
  • #488
  • May 7, 2016 2:05am May 7, 2016 2:05am
Quoting 30XTCi
{quote} I never could get my head around how trading multiple time frames works. Perhaps you, or somebody else could explain it to me. Bye the bye, because I can, and because I like to mess with stuff, I thought I would run an experiment on a couple of days data and see what came out of it. I ran this over the GBPJPY on 27/4/2016 and the next day 28/4/2016. Now the 27th was the day before the BOJ policy statement, and most traders I suspect were keeping their powder dry. High to Low range of 117 pips. So what I did was open a M1 chart and apply...
How multiple time frame works? A daily is in a CLEAR visual uptrend on the charts and reaches a supply zone that has not been tested. All of a sudden on the lower time frame H4 the price starts making lower highs and lower lows. Is that a basis to buy or sell? And where? That is where market experience comes in.I don't want to get into too many specifics because I'm still learning myself and don't want to post incorrect information, but I'm learning from a great mentor with years of market experience. Take a look at my page for some insight I have learned from him. His instagram page is @sellsupplybuydemand. If you would like his personal details, message me privately.
  • #489
  • May 7, 2016 4:01am May 7, 2016 4:01am
Do you create your own trendline, how do you find trendline, seems simple to go with the trend line?
  • #490
  • Edited 4:30am May 7, 2016 4:16am | Edited 4:30am
Quoting 30XTCi
{quote} I never could get my head around how trading multiple time frames works. Perhaps you, or somebody else could explain it to me. Bye the bye, because I can, and because I like to mess with stuff, I thought I would run an experiment on a couple of days data and see what came out of it. I ran this over the GBPJPY on 27/4/2016 and the next day 28/4/2016. Now the 27th was the day before the BOJ policy statement, and most traders I suspect were keeping their powder dry. High to Low range of 117 pips. So what I did was open a M1 chart and apply...
I apologize for having filled three pages of discussion with Atokys, albeit those concepts have anyway a lot to do in understanding market behaviour; believe it or not mind set is the key to every problem you face with.
You are struggling with something very important and one of the reasons you have not found yet the solution is the word "trend".
Try to look at things from different perspectives and you might find the one that will reveal you the solution: there are posts here in FF that can tell you a lot if you read them with the correct approach.
  • #491
  • May 7, 2016 4:38am May 7, 2016 4:38am
The biggest 'secret' to trading progress is that to discover 'secretz' you must understand what you are researching and why you are researching it.

There is a huge difference between trying something and researching something:

Trying something because you read it in a book published in 1976 with loads of ratings on amaz0n and because some dudes on a forum seem legit (so it must be true) is one thing.

And another very different is forming a hypothesis based on a specific observation in order to research (with an objective/quantifiable framework) if there exists any level of correlation/consistency in order to systematically prove/disprove if said hypothesis is plausible or not.

Observation -> Question -> Hypothesis -> Research -> Valid? (yes - continue) (no - discard).

Everything is interlinked, so much research is interlinked aswell. A high correlation provides dependency, and dependency provides consistancy. And consistancy provides lots of blow and fast cars
  • #492
  • May 7, 2016 5:12am May 7, 2016 5:12am
Well what I am seeing here are pictures of naked women and lots of deep, heavy psychology together with some seriously complicated explanations - the mind boggles!

What if I posted naked men? How would that go down? Is it relevant? And oh, regarding the trading part; it isn't that complicated! I have seen some potential gems being posted but they are largely ignored. Just extract your heads from your backside and take a look around.
  • #493
  • May 7, 2016 5:36am May 7, 2016 5:36am
lets look at flows in and out of currencies ,doller ,yen and risk.

if the present flows are exiting doller and yen the risk currencies increase in value ,regardless of trend on any t/f ,you can clearly identify this .the market agrees .is this a trend ?all the previous information is quite irrelevent.to enter into a trend from the past which does hold merit you require the flows as a whole to support the historic trend you inten to join.

if you enter when the over all market is not in agreement you are most likely entering into chaos and range

can it be that simple
  • #494
  • May 7, 2016 8:47am May 7, 2016 8:47am
Quoting skyway
There are large net winners in contrarian speculation.
Trend following is a pretty contrarian style of speculation.

But ok, I shall discuss your point more seriously. Of course, 'contrarian' is one of those heavily misused words on FF. Ive seen a lot of pet ideas about what constitutes being contrarian on FF and most them do not hold merit. When we speak of the great contrarian speculators names like Paul Tudor Jones come up, and their style of 'contrarian trading' isn't close to what most people on FF think. Tudor Jones earned the title because he profited greatly by picking major market turning points. Such feats referenced in Market Wizards involved:
- Tudor Jones profiting by going long T-Bonds near the market bottom.
- Richard Dennis going short Sugar at 60 cents (Sugar fell from a high of 66 cents to a low of 12 cents in seven months).

On the surface, the style of 'contrarian trading' appears to be in stark contrast to trend trading. However, both types of traders are actually capitalizing on the exact same underlying market phenomena. FF folk lack the ability to digest explanations so please refer to the diagrams for a simplified summary of the two trading styles:
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While the modus operandi differ, both 'contrarian' and 'conventional' rely on the same market phenomena to extract profits. Therefore, these terms are ambiguous in their ability to accurately convey a trading concept. A 'contrarian' like Tudor Jones has more in common with a trend follower than he does with the great Contrarians of Forex Factory.

Its all very cute when FF regulars and their appointed Gurus fancy themselves contrarian because they took an intraday 'countertrend' trade. Its all very funny to me because 'trends' don't have an inherent objective meaning and therefore neither do 'countertrends'. Each can be seen as contrarian or non-contrarian depending on the way you look at things.
  • #495
  • May 7, 2016 9:09am May 7, 2016 9:09am
Quoting Atokys
{quote} However, both types of traders are actually capitalizing on the exact same underlying market phenomena.
Big thumbs on at that post A. Marvelous explanation :-)
  • #496
  • May 7, 2016 9:19am May 7, 2016 9:19am
Quoting Atokys
{quote} Trend following is a pretty contrarian style of speculation. But ok, I shall discuss your point more seriously. Of course, 'contrarian' is one of those heavily misused words on FF. Ive seen a lot of pet ideas about what constitutes being contrarian on FF and most them do not hold merit. When we speak of the great contrarian speculators names like Paul Tudor Jones come up, and their style of 'contrarian trading' isn't close to what most people on FF think. Tudor Jones earned the title because he profited greatly by picking major market turning...
the big difference for this example is the contrarian heat from his account balance and trend trader heat from market liquidty
  • #497
  • May 7, 2016 9:29am May 7, 2016 9:29am
Quoting Copernicus
Big thumbs on at that post A. Marvelous explanation :-)
lol thanks.
Quoting vasily
the big difference for this example is the contrarian heat from his account balance and trend trader heat from market liquidty
That difference is actually very superficial.

The distinction between a drawdown in 'your own starting balance' and 'market's money' is purely psychological/emotional. At least, thats what I believe when it comes to assessing a system.
  • #498
  • May 7, 2016 9:30am May 7, 2016 9:30am
contrarian trader should bet on where market reverse.in fact no one can know where it will revrse.and the contrarian assume that he knows where it will stop and more then that reverse.this is big gamble.and when he can make some good bets he called market wizard
trend trader with pullback takes small gamble and guess it where it will stop and reverse in the shade of big move
trend trader with momentum ignore all bets and folow money move and jump in the move
  • #499
  • May 7, 2016 9:32am May 7, 2016 9:32am
Quoting Atokys
{quote} lol thanks. {quote} That difference is actually very superficial. The distinction between a drawdown in 'your own starting balance' and 'market's money' is purely psychological/emotional. At least, thats what I believe when it comes to assessing a system.
and its mathematicly purely different
  • #500
  • May 7, 2016 9:33am May 7, 2016 9:33am
Quoting Copernicus
{quote} Big thumbs on at that post A. Marvelous explanation :-)
nice to see you again my friend, I hope everything is good with you
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