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The Big secret to trading success

  • #441
  • May 6, 2016 9:09am May 6, 2016 9:09am
Hi everyone and thanks for this truly interesting conversation which, by definition, is endless.

I can see that many of you have given trend analysis some serious thought, and I also agree with those who say that past data is not necessarily relevant to predict future data (i.e. charts). Because of this, I try to consider the market from a fractal viewpoint and seek the moment where a trend (or lack thereof) is weak enough to allow an opposite movement (or just a movement). As each trader may have a definition of "weak", that creates as many opportunities to initiate a position and the same applies to stop loss and profit taking/locking.

This is not my full time activity but I have dabbled with FX trading for over 10 years now and I still learn something new every day. I find the market increasingly fickle, with many whiplashes that take all the profits back quickly. Therefore I moved from trying to make 100+ pips trades with high volatility and high S/L to 20-40 pip trades with larger sizes, similar S/L but a relatively higher chance of success. I also found that back-testing can be treacherous as there is fundamental difference between looking/trading a bar chart while it is forming versus analyzing what would have happened only at the closing price.

Also, I would advise against relying on the false sense of security that daily/weekly would-be trends give to shorter-term traders. To me, a "trend" is only in the eye of the beholder and can mean two opposite things depending on the timeframes you are looking at, your acceptable risk, your objectives and why you are in the FX trading game.
  • #442
  • May 6, 2016 9:13am May 6, 2016 9:13am
i honestly appreciate the advice am getting, there is so much to learn its like Ive opened a new world all together, but where do i start
  • #443
  • May 6, 2016 9:18am May 6, 2016 9:18am
Quoting Scharlotte
i honestly appreciate the advice am getting, there is so much to learn its like Ive opened a new world all together, but where do i start
page #1
  • #444
  • May 6, 2016 9:18am May 6, 2016 9:18am
Quoting Atokys
{quote} Quite the opposite. 'Trends' can only be recognized by observing the difference between a recent point and a more distant point. Both of these exist in the past and both are mere observations of what has happened with no implications for the future.

Good, this is the main point: on your chart you can see only the past but when a person sees a trend what does he/she thinks? .....oh! is trending, let's get inn!...so even though there are no implications for the future people is making a lot of implications for the future, so...
I can agree with on you at half: trading is first of all a mind game and there are of course many way to trade profitably; yes, there are many traders that do not need to understand the why, so they had to get used to trade blind folded to a certain degree.
I am one of those who cannot do anything if they do not know the why, so my process learning has been the hardest you can imagine and it was also the most dangerous because no one could grant me I would have found the why: so the choice was between a full failure and a diamond.
Finally I've figured it out and now I have a diamond that only a few have, because if you know the why you can anticipate what is happening and this is a great edge - please not that I said anticipate and not predict: the difference is huge -.
So I would not say that knowing the "why" is that optional; for someone could be, for someother could be essential: everything depends upon the mind you have for trading is first of all a mind game.
  • #445
  • May 6, 2016 9:19am May 6, 2016 9:19am
Quoting vasily
you can call become good trader a sucess or sometimes quit trading is sucess or sometimes being not dead is sucess.so dont take words single directiın
Yes. Very astute.

My belief is that everybody is successful in getting what he or she wants from the markets. Some people realize their calling in the game of trading, some people realize its not for them and do something else that they really like. Like natural systems, markets systematically cull the weaker hands and retain the hardy few.
Quoting darko2010
I also agree with those who say that past data is not necessarily relevant to predict future data
Yes. In the game of speculation, I will go even further to say that past price data cannot predict the future.

However, you can build a system with a positive expectancy using only past price as an input.
  • #446
  • May 6, 2016 9:26am May 6, 2016 9:26am
good to be here. there are nice discussion about secret of trading success. it will be helpful to everyone.
  • #447
  • May 6, 2016 9:40am May 6, 2016 9:40am
Quoting strongtrader
Good, this is the main point: on your chart you can see only the past but when a person sees a trend what does he/she thinks? .....oh! is trending, let's get inn!...so even though there are no implications for the future people is making a lot of implications for the future

The trading implication (which is an opinion of the future) is subjective. When we speak of objectivity in trend identification we necessarily speak only of the past.
Quote
I am one of those who cannot do anything if they do not know the why, so my process learning has been the hardest you can imagine and it was also the most dangerous because no one could grant me I would have found the why: so the choice was between a full failure and a diamond. Finally I've figured it out and now I have a diamond that only a few have, because if you know the why you can anticipate what is happening and this is a great edge - please not that I said anticipate and not predict: the difference is huge -. So I would not say that knowing...
Thank you for sharing your process.

I hope you realize that by saying that understanding 'why' is essential for some and non-essential for some others admits that it is, in fact, optional.
  • #448
  • May 6, 2016 9:55am May 6, 2016 9:55am
Quoting IQOptionuk
good to be here. there are nice discussion about secret of trading success. it will be helpful to everyone.
The thing is that there is no secret, just common sense and humility every single day you trade
  • #449
  • May 6, 2016 9:55am May 6, 2016 9:55am
Quoting Atokys
{quote}[/color] The trading implication (which is an opinion of the future) is subjective. When we speak of objectivity in trend identification we necessarily speak only of the past. {quote} Thank you for sharing your process. I hope you realize that by saying that understanding 'why' is essential for some and non-essential for some others admits that it is, in fact, optional.
You are following a deterministic thinking that leads you to not see how things really work: there is no objectivity in anything but only what you perceive.
What you consider a reality is your reality but could not be mine or someone else: there is not an objective reality.
Yes, you can be objective to a certain degree speaking of the past, but does it really make sense speaking of the past? can you trade in the past?
As Vasily said a success can be figuring out how to trade profitably and either understanding that trading is not for you: so again everything is subjective, there are many realities as the sum total of human beings, each one creates its own reality, everything is born from your thoughts.
So to conclude what for you is optional for me is mandatory so it cannot be optional
  • #450
  • May 6, 2016 10:03am May 6, 2016 10:03am
Quoting cat
Hundreds of books have been dedicated to this question, hundreds more threads have discussed it and analyzed it, everybody knows what it is, and yet, the majority of traders still lose. The answer boils down to just one thing around which everything else will, given time, fall into place. The reason we lose is that we ignore it, and we ignore it because it runs counter to human nature, for we humans are especially prone to over-complicating things and failing to see the wood for the trees. Such an approach to the markets is usually fatal. As Einstein...
This is my two cents about the education we find in today's books. I copy it from one of the threads I started.

Looking at the first chart, where would you draw the trendline? Would it look something like the trendline drawn in the second chart? That is how the books you read about technical analysis teach you and how majority of traders are plotting their charts. But why is it then that 95% of traders really lose money? Is it really psychology fully at fault or does it also have to do with the way we are taught to trade in the first place? Take a look the third picture, this is how the trendline is drawn by a trader with a decade of market experience.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #451
  • May 6, 2016 10:04am May 6, 2016 10:04am
Quoting Atokys
Yes. In the game of speculation, I will go even further to say that past price data cannot predict the future. However, you can build a system with a positive expectancy using only past price as an input.
Past price or past price behavior?
  • #452
  • Edited 10:48am May 6, 2016 10:09am | Edited 10:48am
Quoting strongtrader
You are following a deterministic thinking that leads you to not see how things really work: there is no objectivity in anything but only what you perceive. What you consider a reality is your reality but could not be mine or someone else: there is not an objective reality. As Vasily said a success can be figuring out how to trade profitably and either understanding that trading is not for you: so again everything is subjective, there are many realities as the sum total of human beings, each one creates its own reality, everything is born from your...
Very well.

Logical inconsistency. The notion that things 'really work' in a particular way alludes to an objective reality. If you say that nothing is objective then it follows that neither is your statement.

I will go even further to say that Markets have an objective nature. If one is oblivious to what the net winners are doing then he risks ending up a net loser if he inadvertently takes opposing positions to the net winners.
Quote
So to conclude what for you is optional for me is mandatory so it cannot be optional
Understanding 'why' is an activity that is non-crucial to following the Process, therefore it is optional. I observe a group of people who follow a process that leads to profitability, some search for understanding, some do not. Regardless, their results are not dependent on their understanding of 'why'.

Not to mention, most people's understanding of 'why' as pertaining to a complex system like markets is often an oversimplification.
  • #453
  • May 6, 2016 10:10am May 6, 2016 10:10am
Quoting darko2010
Past price or past price behavior?
Both.
  • #454
  • May 6, 2016 10:20am May 6, 2016 10:20am
I see that all the things about quantum physycs, multiverse, chaos etc have confused some people.
You need an objective perspective to define something.
We all perceive a different reality but all have access to same information.
It is up to you being objective or subjective.
Subjective = live in your world and don't care about what is outside of your mind
Objective = find an objective reality outside of your mind
Even infinity or chaos has an objective explanation but for lots of people they seem subjective.
If you tackle anything with a subjective perspective you will fail cause you will see what your mind is programmed to see.

Alex
  • #455
  • May 6, 2016 10:20am May 6, 2016 10:20am
Quoting chartsndream
{quote} This is my two cents about the education we find in today's books. I copy it from one of the threads I started. Looking at the first chart, where would you draw the trendline? Would it look something like the trendline drawn in the second chart? That is how the books you read about technical analysis teach you and how majority of traders are plotting their charts. But why is it then that 95% of traders really lose money? Is it really psychology fully at fault or does it also have to do with the way we are taught to trade in the first place?...
What would a marketeer with a decade of market experience say about risk? How about reward? You premise is interesting and your participation would help the discussion.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #456
  • Edited 12:05pm May 6, 2016 10:21am | Edited 12:05pm
Quoting darko2010
Hi everyone and thanks for this truly interesting conversation which, by definition, is endless. I can see that many of you have given trend analysis some serious thought, and I also agree with those who say that past data is not necessarily relevant to predict future data (i.e. charts).
Unless your entries and exits are truly random in nature, all other traders ALWAYS use past data as a basis for projecting future outcomes, whether it be price data displayed on a chart, fundamental data drawn from economic sources/industry statistics, digital price records of ticker tape etc, etc, etc. Any trader that believes in causal process uses their definition of a past sequence of events to predict the future. The timeframe upon which those sequence of events occur range from the millisecond to the eternal yet it is the way those sequence of events unfold over that interval that gives traders a basis to project a possible outcome in an uncertain future. Trend traders are not alone in this phenomenon. Everyone has a different information set to work with (a record of the past). That information which is made available specifically to them. Everything is relative to an observer and that's what gives us such a rich tapestry of participants.
  • #457
  • May 6, 2016 10:25am May 6, 2016 10:25am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} What would a marketeer with a decade of market experience say about risk? How about reward? You premise is interesting and your participation would help the discussion.

Hey brother, I do not have a decade of experience trading the markets. I am learning from trader with ten years of experience though. Take a look at my threads I have created, I want to be a contributing member to the FF community. As far as Risk:Reward, take a look at my stop chasing pips and the proven stop loss threads. Hope this helps you.
  • #458
  • Edited 10:36am May 6, 2016 10:26am | Edited 10:36am
Quoting Atokys
{quote}........ I will go even further to say that Markets have an objective nature. If one is oblivious to what the net winners are doing then he risks ending up a net loser if he inadvertently takes opposing positions to the net winners........
All you need is to know what the net winners are doing during very specific times, don't need to know anything else or for the rest of the time. The option "to know why" is not necessary and does not translate into equivalent profits.
  • #459
  • May 6, 2016 10:35am May 6, 2016 10:35am
Quoting skyway
All you need is to know what the net winners are doing during very specific times, don't need to know anything else or for the rest of the times. The option "to know why" is not necessary and does not translate into equivalent profits.
To avoid misunderstanding, let me cut to the chase. The net winners I know of follow trends.
  • #460
  • May 6, 2016 10:41am May 6, 2016 10:41am
Quoting Atokys
{quote} To avoid misunderstanding, let me cut to the chase. The net winners I know of follow trends.
Net winners can take positions with or opposite the trend. Either one or the other or even both.
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