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  • #12,821
  • May 5, 2016 6:46pm May 5, 2016 6:46pm
Mmmmm. What the hell is going on with the Dough traders? I thought the standard to pull the trigger on an earnings play was >70 IVR, >50 IV. These guys are hitting those bitches at far less than 70 IVR ... .

I can understand Tony V's HLF trade (which meets the criteria), but HLF isn't the most liquid thing in the world ... . Looked at it myself and passed ... .

A head scratcher ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,822
  • May 5, 2016 6:46pm May 5, 2016 6:46pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Not that this is the greatest point at which to sell premium in SPY, ... .
we'll see what the NFP brings us: we should either rally or start to fall beginning tomorrow. I'm guessing a weak NFP will give us another weak grind-up to /ES 2,100 - we'll see. If it moves that way I might sell some SPY or IWM call spreads for June....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,823
  • May 5, 2016 6:50pm May 5, 2016 6:50pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}we'll see what the NFP brings us: we should either rally or start to fall beginning tomorrow. I'm guessing a weak NFP will give us another weak grind-up to /ES 2,100 - we'll see. If it moves that way I might sell some SPY or IWM call spreads for June....
Speaking of selling on strength, buying on weakness, I putzed a bit of where I would pull the trigger on loading up a few more units on the call side. I'm thinking of adding some on a revisit of 209-ish:

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Obviously, higher would be better ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,824
  • May 5, 2016 6:53pm May 5, 2016 6:53pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}we'll see what the NFP brings us: we should either rally or start to fall beginning tomorrow. I'm guessing a weak NFP will give us another weak grind-up to /ES 2,100 - we'll see. If it moves that way I might sell some SPY or IWM call spreads for June....
Wonder if we'll be back in the good news is bad news cycle (NFP beat = increased chances for hike, so bad for the market/NFP fail = lowered chances for hike, so good for market) ... . Or will it be good news is good news again? Lol.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,825
  • May 5, 2016 8:08pm May 5, 2016 8:08pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} Wonder if we'll be back in the good news is bad news cycle (NFP beat = increased chances for hike, so bad for the market/NFP fail = lowered chances for hike, so good for market) ... . Or will it be good news is good news again? Lol.
This time the market expectations for the NFP are standing at 200K but what is more interesting is the speculation of the FED Rate hike and the ensuing market volatility it will create.
FXOpen - International True ECN Broker
  • #12,826
  • May 5, 2016 8:31pm May 5, 2016 8:31pm
Quoting EuroScalper
This time the market expectations for the NFP are standing at 200K but what is more interesting is the speculation of the FED Rate hike and the ensuing market volatility it will create.
yes, it seems that NFP is not what it once was. Who remembers when the Fed had a red line drawn at unemployment = 6.0%? Oh, right, that's in the rearview and it meant nothing. If inflation would really start to move, maybe the Fed would start to really move, too - but we need a different economy than we have for that to come about. If the oil rally would get going, bring other commodities along, maybe we see inflation start to move in the USA. But we are not there and the world (China) is not there. Meanwhile, the equity markets are awash in easy money and there's nowhere else to go with your paycheck or with your $300 billion AUM except there.

That is why I have degenerated into the pathetic example of a trader you see today, waiting around for the ephemeral volatility panic spike like an old dried out coyote sitting by a dried up pond with nothing but skeletons for company. No offense to you skeletons....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,827
  • May 5, 2016 10:02pm May 5, 2016 10:02pm
Quoting EuroScalper
{quote} This time the market expectations for the NFP are standing at 200K but what is more interesting is the speculation of the FED Rate hike and the ensuing market volatility it will create.
For Fed rate hike expectations, the thing to watch is this little bugger: http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/inte...n-to-fomc.html

Currently, the expectation of a 25 bps hike in June stands at 9.4%:

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Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,828
  • Edited 10:47pm May 5, 2016 10:31pm | Edited 10:47pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Currently, the expectation of a 25 bps hike in June stands at 9.4%:
LOL.....can I interest you in a little VIX strangle?..............VIX starts early, you could fill a strangle before the NFP.....:nerd:
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,829
  • May 6, 2016 2:26am May 6, 2016 2:26am
THINKING AHEAD
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,830
  • May 6, 2016 9:13am May 6, 2016 9:13am
Lackluster NFP's, with less than expected additions, a revision downward for previous, unemp rate unchanged ... . Prob of June hike decreasing to 5.x%, but not exactly a huge market reaction one way or the other ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,831
  • May 6, 2016 9:15am May 6, 2016 9:15am
Filled this at the open to maintain a small theta pile:

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Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,832
  • May 6, 2016 9:21am May 6, 2016 9:21am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Lackluster NFP's, with less than expected additions, a revision downward for previous, unemp rate unchanged ... . Prob of June hike decreasing to 5.x%, but not exactly a huge market reaction one way or the other ... .
June was never gonna happen, but a big NFP would have helped keep the fear alive.....now oh boy we will prolly grind sideways or upwards towards May opex.....next best chance for some volatility is the Brexit angst, may not build as much as I thought or at all....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,833
  • Edited 5:23pm May 6, 2016 4:31pm | Edited 5:23pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}LOL.....can I interest you in a little VIX strangle?..............VIX starts early, you could fill a strangle before the NFP.....:nerd:
looks like I woulda made a little profit on either one of those strangles - something to file away in the old braincase for future big data trades............

next time something like NFP is coming near, check the VIX/VXX chains and look to buy strangles cheap b4 any iv uptick - check in the week to couple days range pre-event......
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,834
  • May 6, 2016 7:20pm May 6, 2016 7:20pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}June was never gonna happen, but a big NFP would have helped keep the fear alive.....now oh boy we will prolly grind sideways or upwards towards May opex.....next best chance for some volatility is the Brexit angst, may not build as much as I thought or at all....
I need to look back in time to the Scottish independence vote, which caused quite a hoo-hah in Cable, Fibre crosses and had ripple effects into FTSE, etc. Brexit vote could naturally cause bigger ripples, since we're talking about the entirety of the U.K. parting ways with the Eurozone ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,835
  • May 6, 2016 7:22pm May 6, 2016 7:22pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Not that this is the greatest point at which to sell premium in SPY, but that's where my core positions are at (I think IV in either QQQ or IWM is a bit higher). With VIX at >15, I'm layering an IC on in June: SPY June 17th 193/196/212/215 IC Metrics: Probability of Profit: 54% P50: 71% Max Profit: $100/contract Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $200/contract Theta: 1.53/contract Delta: -3.97 The overall probability of profit for the setup is quite low. However, the P50 -- the probability that the setup will reach 50% max profit sometime prior to expiry--...
Chased this bugger and got a fill at .95 .... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,836
  • May 6, 2016 7:25pm May 6, 2016 7:25pm
Only highly liquid underlying with greater than 70 IVR, greater than 50 IV -- GDX.

Filled a June 17th 21.5/29 short strangle for 1.06.

Adding to the theta pile in the event that my VXX diagonals and such take longer than desirable to play out ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,837
  • May 6, 2016 9:40pm May 6, 2016 9:40pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}yes, it seems that NFP is not what it once was. Who remembers when the Fed had a red line drawn at unemployment = 6.0%? Oh, right, that's in the rearview and it meant nothing. If inflation would really start to move, maybe the Fed would start to really move, too - but we need a different economy than we have for that to come about. If the oil rally would get going, bring other commodities along, maybe we see inflation start to move in the USA. But we are not there and the world (China) is not there. Meanwhile, the equity markets are awash...
The expectations that the traders are having from the FED are also a concern as we saw the zigzag movements in the Euro post the NFP hit the markets. Though this type of news will generally have a high effect on the volatility how much also depends on the sentiments of the traders and the Foreign Institutional Investors who are also trading in these times.
FXOpen - International True ECN Broker
  • #12,838
  • May 6, 2016 9:53pm May 6, 2016 9:53pm
No offense, EuroScalper, but this is a thread for options traders (check thread title). It's in a part of the forum called "Interactive Trading." The gist is - it's a place for traders to talk about their trades. If you are trading options, feel free to post up some of your trades. Options trades. If you can't do that, you can't post here. Thank you.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,839
  • May 6, 2016 9:57pm May 6, 2016 9:57pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Chased this bugger and got a fill at .95 .... .
I will just wait for the inevitable top of range move again, somewhere 2,100 way, then shoot at June or later SPY $213 short.......yawn....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,840
  • May 6, 2016 10:19pm May 6, 2016 10:19pm
Jun 24 UVXY options came up this week - I will shop in there for cheap bull call verts. For a 50c spread I don't want to pay more than 10c, we'll see how it goes....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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