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  • #401
  • May 4, 2016 1:56am May 4, 2016 1:56am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Except, this has been done by Darryl Guppy a few years ago. That is why I posted the chart that I did. Trend can absolutely be objectively defined.
But what the ardent critics forget is that in talking about a 'trend' you need a specific context to define it in. Guppy categorically defines his trends using his MMA's. When applied correctly it is blatantly obvious when drawn in this context that directional price behaviour exists that can be specifically traded using a technique for that context.

Each different method applied by different trend traders is specific for the context that it is defined in.....hence the plethora of different interpretations of a trend.....but the majority can probably be effectively traded using the correct tools for that context.

To state that trend following is dead, or that trends don't exist is simply an ill conceived statement that attempts to dumb down the significant skills required for successful trend following.
  • #402
  • May 4, 2016 2:12am May 4, 2016 2:12am
Quoting Copernicus
{quote} But what the ardent critics forget is that in talking about a 'trend' you need a specific context to define it in. Guppy categorically defines his trends using his MMA's. When applied correctly it is blatantly obvious when drawn in this context that directional price behaviour exists that can be specifically traded using a technique for that context. Each different method applied by different trend traders is specific for the context that it is defined in.....hence the plethora of different interpretations of a trend.....but the majority...
Absolutely. This is why this thread by cat is so important. Major players who still come to forums get to tell newer traders some important things.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #403
  • May 4, 2016 2:59am May 4, 2016 2:59am
Quoting Quickdraw
{quote} There is no trend. Go watch this YouTube video if you don't believe me. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rnPMI4lOq8E As The Rumpled One says: "There is a big difference between facts and opinions. I bet you think that the terms "trend", "support", "resistance" are facts. When in reality they are concepts and opinions. I would wager you have read or heard "The trend is your friend" at least once. Let me set the record straight: There is no trend. Trend exist only in the mind of the...
trend
trend/
noun

  1. 1.
    a general direction in which something is developing or changing.
    "an upward trend in sales and profit margins"
    synonyms:tendency, movement, drift, swing, shift, course, current, direction,progression, inclination, leaning; More
  2. 2.
    a fashion.
    "the latest trends in modern dance"
    synonyms:fashion, vogue, style, mode, craze, mania, rage; More

verb

  1. 1.
    change or develop in a general direction.
    "unemployment has been trending upward"
    synonyms:move, go, head, drift, gravitate, swing, shift, turn, incline, tend, lean, veer "interest rates are trending up"

  2. 2.
    (of a topic) be the subject of many posts on a social media website within a short period of time.
    "I've just taken a quick look at what's trending on Twitter right now"

trend isnt phisical thing.its a fashion.and its not necesry to everone folow.but when many folow it becomes trend.
general trend is the weekly monthly charts.those also include fudumental outlook in general.but even this big charts change by tick charts
so trend is a slope where it give you some advantage of price movement with time.dont fall in love with it and dont hate it

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  • #404
  • May 4, 2016 3:38am May 4, 2016 3:38am
Quoting vasily
{quote} so trend is a slope where it give you some advantage of price movement with time.dont fall in love with it and dont hate it
Good way to think of it V. Leave the specifics and go with the flow. Jump into a river and let it take you on the ride. More often than not you will head downstream :-)
  • #405
  • May 4, 2016 5:22am May 4, 2016 5:22am
Quoting Copernicus
{quote} Good way to think of it V. Leave the specifics and go with the flow. Jump into a river and let it take you on the ride. More often than not you will head downstream :-)
I like that. I used a similar analogy about surfing a few pages back, a sport I used to indulge in when I was much younger and didn't need a squirt of oil each morning to get the old joints moving again. Entering a trade on a pullback with the momentum of the hour behind you is like catching a wave. Placing a trade against the run of play in the hope of catching a top or a bottom is the equivalent to paddling out through heavy surf to get out back - it is much more difficult and pretty tiring.
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  • #406
  • May 4, 2016 5:29am May 4, 2016 5:29am
You mean like this Cat (getting caught against the trend in force)


Inserted Video
Road To Wisdom? To err and err and err again, but less and less and less...
  • #407
  • May 4, 2016 5:32am May 4, 2016 5:32am
Quoting Calculus
You me4an like this Cat (getting caught against the trend in force) https://youtu.be/bCWgd8v3a98
haha....that's like the buy trade you just put on seconds before the price drops 100 pips!!
  • #408
  • May 4, 2016 5:33am May 4, 2016 5:33am
Anyone else finding ff really slow to load the last few days?
  • #409
  • May 4, 2016 6:39am May 4, 2016 6:39am
Quoting cat
{quote} I like that. I used a similar analogy about surfing a few pages back, a sport I used to indulge in when I was much younger and didn't need a squirt of oil each morning to get the old joints moving again. Entering a trade on a pullback with the momentum of the hour behind you is like catching a wave. Placing a trade against the run of play in the hope of catching a top or a bottom is the equivalent to paddling out through heavy surf to get out back - it is much more difficult and pretty tiring. {image}
cat isnt surfing.its to reach the beach
  • #410
  • May 4, 2016 6:40am May 4, 2016 6:40am
Quoting Copernicus
{quote} Good way to think of it V. Leave the specifics and go with the flow. Jump into a river and let it take you on the ride. More often than not you will head downstream :-)
  • #411
  • Edited 10:06am May 4, 2016 7:04am | Edited 10:06am
There is no DOWN TREND on the first chart when the bars are below the BPL and both Chart Mode I & II are red?

Could you move down to the second chart and look for an UP bar on low volume in a DOWN TREND?

"No HiddenGap, I have to catch tops and bottoms so I can brag about it to my friends and on FF".

Well, being right and sitting tight; that's where the money is............ Learn to follow the trend.
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Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #412
  • May 4, 2016 8:01am May 4, 2016 8:01am
Quoting cat
{quote} I like that. I used a similar analogy about surfing a few pages back, a sport I used to indulge in when I was much younger and didn't need a squirt of oil each morning to get the old joints moving again. Entering a trade on a pullback with the momentum of the hour behind you is like catching a wave. Placing a trade against the run of play in the hope of catching a top or a bottom is the equivalent to paddling out through heavy surf to get out back - it is much more difficult and pretty tiring. {image}
LOL. Now that's what I call a groovy cat cat
  • #413
  • May 4, 2016 8:30am May 4, 2016 8:30am
Quoting Copernicus
{quote} LOL. Now that's what I call a groovy cat cat
  • #414
  • May 4, 2016 8:46am May 4, 2016 8:46am
Quoting Quickdraw
There is no trend. Go watch this YouTube video if you don't believe me. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rnPMI4lOq8E As The Rumpled One says: ...

Think about it. Think about it more than once if you have to.
Yes. Though what I can't understand is why people seem to think this is a strike against trend trading.

1) Trends are subjective (choosing to objectively define a trend is still a subjective decision).
2) Trading with an objectively predefined trend can make one a net winner.

These two statements are not contradictory whatsoever.

Trend followers, having discarded fundamental reasonings and conventional thought, would probably be the first people to admit that hard truths do not exist in the market. Everything is an opinion of a opinion.

Let me seal the case by quoting the greatest trend follower of all time:
Quote
The direction of the trend depends upon the method we use to perform the comparison. Real instruments fluctuate minute-to-minute, day-to-day and year-to-year. We have, therefore an enormous supply of historical points to use to determine trend. As such, we can determine as many instances of trend as we please, in any direction that we please.
Quote
There is no such thing as the trend; there are countless trends, depending on the method we use to determine a trend. People typically pick a method for determining trend that fits with their current positions and/or view of the market.

Quote
The only way to measure a now-trend (one entirely in the moment of now) would be to take two points, both in the now and compute their difference. Motion, velocity and trend do not exist in the now. They do not appear in snapshots. Trend does not exist in the now and the phrase, "the trend" has no inherent meaning. When we speak of trends, we are speaking, necessarily, from some or another view of history.
Quote
There is no such thing as a current trend. When we speak of trends we are necessarily projecting our own definitions.

Amen.

I repeat: you may choose a criteria for objectively defining a trend but adoption of such a criteria is a subjective decision. Realize that even the most blatantly obvious examples of trends may be deemed 'objective' only by consensus (because they appear as trends in the opinion of the most number of people).

Once more, none of the above is problematic for trend followers.

I allude back to the original subject of the thread: the 'secret' to profitable trading. For the outsider who plays a lone hand OF COURSE there are no secrets! When price makes record highs or lows and continues doing so for an extended period of time for all to see, do you ever stop to wonder whos riding the move all the way? Or do you rationalize these events away as 'random' and go back to picking fibonnacci countertrend reversal intraday S&R confluence points?
  • #415
  • May 4, 2016 9:17am May 4, 2016 9:17am
Quoting Atokys
{quote}Let me seal the case by quoting the greatest trend follower of all time: {quote} {quote} {quote} {quote} Amen.
The great Seykota sermon held at the 'Church of Trend Following' I presume.

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  • #416
  • May 4, 2016 9:27am May 4, 2016 9:27am
Quoting Copernicus
{quote} The great Seykota sermon held at the 'Church of Trend Following' I presume. {image}
LOL.

I think the analogy of a tribe gathering is more fitting.

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If Ed wanted to be a preacher his congregation would be a veritable army, but his kingdom would not be built upon the unwashed masses of Guru-seekers.
  • #417
  • May 4, 2016 9:35am May 4, 2016 9:35am
Lots of great posts today on the subject of trends, but for me you cant beat visuals so I'm posting an epic trade from last week entering with the main momentum following a pullback.

For me, sound technical analysis is all you need as a trader, along with pattern recognition skills and a sensible head on your shoulders.

Two charts here, the 2m, and the 10 sec. The London lads as they usually do took the price back up to a level where it was safe to enter with the trend, and this adverse London open move itself produced 70 clean pips, so very nice for anyone who got it.

But it was the subsequent sell which really turned on the burners, dropping 165 pips like a stone.

Looking at the 2m chart, the give away bearish shooting star candles on the 200ema are a clear signal that the price is about to fall, and really, anyone watching this without selling, or hanging onto their buy trade, really has to ask themselves why.

Now onto the 10 sec time frame, and you'll see that the 200 zero lag, which is one of the MAs I use on all time frames, gave me the perfect entry. It dropped so fast because of the huge number of sell orders at this level as traders also spotted this clear, in your face opportunity. They're not always as clean as this, but it's great when they are.
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  • #418
  • May 4, 2016 12:13pm May 4, 2016 12:13pm
Quoting Quickdraw
{quote} There is no trend. Go watch this YouTube video if you don't believe me. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rnPMI4lOq8E As The Rumpled One says: "There is a big difference between facts and opinions. I bet you think that the terms "trend", "support", "resistance" are facts. When in reality they are concepts and opinions. I would wager you have read or heard "The trend is your friend" at least once. Let me set the record straight: There is no trend. Trend exist only in the mind of the...
"the current Daily high and Daily low, Weekly High & Weekly low are factual."

I base my trades on that.
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #419
  • Edited May 6, 2016 6:38am May 5, 2016 7:27am | Edited May 6, 2016 6:38am
IMO stock traders are the trend traders par excellence, they usually trade mid and long term... as Forex traders we usually seek for high volatility so we are more momentum traders.
  • #420
  • May 5, 2016 7:34am May 5, 2016 7:34am
actually we the traders have to acquire most powerful analyzing trade knowledge by learning , if we would like to achieve success from this market place very rapidly. but by and large traders are loser from this trading place due to lack of exact trading knowledge.
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