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Oil and Natural Gas

  • #2,341
  • Apr 29, 2016 1:22pm Apr 29, 2016 1:22pm
Quoting Marz30
{quote} huh?? It's supply and demand here. Refiners have been shutting down due to the low price decreasing supply now that the price goes back up they come back online... this is not a 'credible' source this is how business works...
I have been too long in the market to simply believe in supply and demand. This is Economics of the 1920s. We dont trade in a free market. I am sorry to break it to you. Especially when we are talking about oil, this is a highly manipulated market for political ends.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #2,342
  • Apr 29, 2016 1:24pm Apr 29, 2016 1:24pm
Quoting skyhok
{quote} It has been in whipsaw price action in corrective 4th wave since Jan 2015, and still is. Such fluctuation in price is not a surprise.
I am not saying it cannot happen, I am just saying it would be very scary and I wouldnt like to start thinking of the reasons behind such a move...
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #2,343
  • Apr 29, 2016 1:47pm Apr 29, 2016 1:47pm
Quoting manosk
{quote} I have been too long in the market to simply believe in supply and demand. This is Economics of the 1920s. We dont trade in a free market. I am sorry to break it to you. Especially when we are talking about oil, this is a highly manipulated market for political ends.
I never said anything about free markets. I stick to what I said about about what move oil prices. Rig counts along with central banks, iran oil, supply in general, demand for oil.
TE started 6/4/19
  • #2,344
  • Apr 29, 2016 1:57pm Apr 29, 2016 1:57pm
Quoting Marz30
{quote} I never said anything about free markets. I stick to what I said about about what move oil prices. Rig counts along with central banks, iran oil, supply in general, demand for oil.
And I never said that rig counts dont count. I just said that there are too many other factors to simply talk about supply and demand through rig counts as the forces behind moves in oil prices. Of course as price rises and some of the smaller oil companies become solvent again in a manner of speaking they will start pumping more oil. But this doesnt mean that they will send the prices of oil crashing back down.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #2,345
  • Apr 29, 2016 2:05pm Apr 29, 2016 2:05pm
Quoting manosk
{quote} And I never said that rig counts dont count. I just said that there are too many other factors to simply talk about supply and demand through rig counts as the forces behind moves in oil prices. Of course as price rises and some of the smaller oil companies become solvent again in a manner of speaking they will start pumping more oil. But this doesnt mean that they will send the prices of oil crashing back down.
Just say I'm right, no need for an essay... stop using keywords when quoting me like free markets and crashing. Thanks Bye
TE started 6/4/19
  • #2,346
  • May 1, 2016 2:37am May 1, 2016 2:37am
Quoting manosk
{quote} wow, I hope this scenario doesnt materialize...a drop from 45 to 20 in such a short period of time...and then back up. It will kill all the traders in the market
that is true. but this rise from low 30's to over 46 in under 3 weeks is also killing traders on the markets. So much bearish news but the smallest, lightest of bullish news catapults prices up 10 times up than down.

If you guys watched oil trade on Friday you might have seen that huge spike up about 80 cents in under 15 minutes. That happened after trading hours. So there is big money on the markets propping price up. Call it manipulation if you guys want to but thats reality - he who has the cash can dictate price.

So to trade oil one needs a big account to soften the turbulence and a lot of patience. Trading long term may be more feasible than day trading oil because sooner or later fundementals kick back in.
  • #2,347
  • May 1, 2016 5:50am May 1, 2016 5:50am
Quoting kweiss10
{quote} that is true. but this rise from low 30's to over 46 in under 3 weeks is also killing traders on the markets. So much bearish news but the smallest, lightest of bullish news catapults prices up 10 times up than down. If you guys watched oil trade on Friday you might have seen that huge spike up about 80 cents in under 15 minutes. That happened after trading hours. So there is big money on the markets propping price up. Call it manipulation if you guys want to but thats reality - he who has the cash can dictate price. So to trade oil one...
It is very risky though shorting oil as we enter summer season. Every year usually oil prices gain before summer comes around. At $45-46 oil is still half price of when oil was at $100 from the previous year. If it went up another 10% it would still be at a 50% discount from previous summer prices.
  • #2,348
  • May 1, 2016 6:12am May 1, 2016 6:12am
Sell below 47.....
Don't predict...
Trade fearless not careless...
Syed Mohsin Ali Profit This Month: -788
  • #2,349
  • May 1, 2016 7:05am May 1, 2016 7:05am
Bearish on Oil for medium-term.
  • #2,350
  • May 1, 2016 7:26am May 1, 2016 7:26am
Quoting kweiss10
{quote} that is true. but this rise from low 30's to over 46 in under 3 weeks is also killing traders on the markets. So much bearish news but the smallest, lightest of bullish news catapults prices up 10 times up than down. If you guys watched oil trade on Friday you might have seen that huge spike up about 80 cents in under 15 minutes. That happened after trading hours. So there is big money on the markets propping price up. Call it manipulation if you guys want to but thats reality - he who has the cash can dictate price. So to trade oil one...
I totally agree with you but I need to make one clarification, namely that the only reason why this move from 26 to 46 has killed traders is due to the misguided emphasis of media to all factors pointing to lower prices in oil. They continued playing the tune of oversupply etc even when signs of exhaustion for the downward move started appearing in the horizon and even when it became fundamentally clear that oil will not reach 20 or 10 and oil in the 20s is not sustainable in the longer term. And then of course, and I speak from personal experience in similar situations, when you have the wrong position as a trader but you are part of the herd you cannot see the signs till it is too late. By then you are burned. This is what happened this time in oil. The interesting thing is that apparently people are not burned enough. You still hear the same tune forecasting lower prices in oil. So oil will keep on rising till it has cleaned the market
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #2,351
  • May 1, 2016 7:27am May 1, 2016 7:27am
Quoting stylinex
{quote} It is very risky though shorting oil as we enter summer season. Every year usually oil prices gain before summer comes around. At $45-46 oil is still half price of when oil was at $100 from the previous year. If it went up another 10% it would still be at a 50% discount from previous summer prices.
Good point
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #2,352
  • May 1, 2016 10:00am May 1, 2016 10:00am
But when does long oil become a crowded trade? The rally was a short squeeze and now specs are net long.
TE started 6/4/19
  • #2,353
  • May 1, 2016 11:51pm May 1, 2016 11:51pm
The rally on WTI oil may stop at the 46.00 level, the commodity may try to retrace.
  • #2,354
  • May 2, 2016 1:22am May 2, 2016 1:22am
Public holiday ... Chart move slowly
row row row your boat
  • #2,355
  • May 2, 2016 1:42am May 2, 2016 1:42am
Quoting ngiler
Public holiday ... Chart move slowly
Taiwan, Hong Kong and China are off today. They are back tomorrow but then Japan is off for 3 days starting tomorrow
  • #2,356
  • May 2, 2016 11:16am May 2, 2016 11:16am
$45 taken out. Anyone shorting oil now?
  • #2,357
  • May 2, 2016 1:05pm May 2, 2016 1:05pm
Quoting stylinex
$45 taken out. Anyone shorting oil now?
waiting for set ups to buy long, probably 42
  • #2,358
  • May 2, 2016 2:20pm May 2, 2016 2:20pm
Sell below 46....
Trade fearless not careless...
Syed Mohsin Ali Profit This Month: -788
  • #2,359
  • May 2, 2016 2:22pm May 2, 2016 2:22pm
Quoting medvic
{quote} waiting for set ups to buy long, probably 42
Don't catching falling knives.....
Trade fearless not careless...
Syed Mohsin Ali Profit This Month: -788
  • #2,360
  • May 3, 2016 8:29am May 3, 2016 8:29am
Oil looks like it wants to go under 44 today but I am not touching because I know the minute I enter a short position it will retrace
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