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Just Another A/U Thread...

  • #701
  • May 2, 2016 8:19pm May 2, 2016 8:19pm
Quoting Starcraftmaz
{quote} The AAA thing was just a side-note article. Most of the markets don't live in Australia or understand/analyse the RBA properly. They are not a central bank which will sporadically change interest rates based on one data point. There are many other factors in play like a red-hot property market which needs to be cooled down, and Glen Stevens has said many times he thinks they've done all they can, and any further action will increase risk without having any positive outcome. The price of oil dropped, CPI went down accordingly - in the greater...
Plenty of points to argue the case either way. If you are right then you should make some good money as you should have been buying yesterday below 76c / last night when it went back towards 76c and have further upside today after they hold.

I just hope you have a plan in place in case they do cut.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #702
  • May 2, 2016 8:21pm May 2, 2016 8:21pm
Quoting Starcraftmaz
{quote} The AAA thing was just a side-note article. Most of the markets don't live in Australia or understand/analyse the RBA properly. They are not a central bank which will sporadically change interest rates based on one data point. There are many other factors in play like a red-hot property market which needs to be cooled down, and Glen Stevens has said many times he thinks they've done all they can, and any further action will increase risk without having any positive outcome. The price of oil dropped, CPI went down accordingly - in the greater...
If you have a red hot property market - cool it with taxes or don't pass rate cuts to mortgage holders. It's easy. But sitting on a high rate credit for the economy like business loans is stupid. If they will not cut today, it'll bite them and us tomorrow. Recession is here thanks to RBA.
  • #703
  • May 2, 2016 9:28pm May 2, 2016 9:28pm
A/U just keeps going up this morning. To my knowledge no new reason for USD weakness, no reason for so much Aussie strength. Can't help feeling that it's a pump n dump scenario ahead of RBA.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #704
  • May 2, 2016 9:45pm May 2, 2016 9:45pm
Quoting dab
A/U just keeps going up this morning. To my knowledge no new reason for USD weakness, no reason for so much Aussie strength. Can't help feeling that it's a pump n dump scenario ahead of RBA.
US already weak against eur,gbp,nzd we see the rally on previous week ... this week aud get strength against dollar ... so far rba decision will give real strength to aud further it go upside or bear comes in play down to 7550 area .... am staying off from aud after closed buy position now
  • #705
  • May 2, 2016 10:35pm May 2, 2016 10:35pm
Careful for spikes up and/or down with RBA news soon.
  • #706
  • May 2, 2016 10:47pm May 2, 2016 10:47pm
Quoting PA is King
Careful for spikes up and/or down with RBA news soon.
I am out aud pa, but going to get a buy shortly and hold it if I have to also going to put a buy down a bit for a sudden spike down with a tp
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
  • #707
  • May 2, 2016 11:02pm May 2, 2016 11:02pm
Quoting dab
{quote}you should have been buying yesterday below 76c / last night when it went back towards 76c and have further upside today after they hold. I just hope you have a plan in place in case they do cut.
I did, I was position building yesterday as I said on these forums (I said it's a good day to build longs for tomorrow - ie. today).

I've added more longs today though, all are SLed in positive territory now due to big rise in AUDUSD, but at various points.

The only problem is if the market has been buying because it now expects a hold, in which case it might stall at 722. Either way, I've pretty much already made my profit, though I'm hoping it now goes higher to 78 and then 80.

Quoting cold chisel
{quote} If you have a red hot property market - cool it with taxes or don't pass rate cuts to mortgage holders. It's easy. But sitting on a high rate credit for the economy like business loans is stupid. If they will not cut today, it'll bite them and us tomorrow. Recession is here thanks to RBA.
You're describing what a good government would do. We here in Australia do not have one.
  • #708
  • May 2, 2016 11:07pm May 2, 2016 11:07pm
Quoting Starcraftmaz
{quote} I did, I was position building yesterday as I said on these forums (I said it's a good day to build longs for tomorrow - ie. today). I've added more longs today though, all are SLed in positive territory now due to big rise in AUDUSD, but at various points. The only problem is if the market has been buying because it now expects a hold, in which case it might stall at 722. Either way, I've pretty much already made my profit, though I'm hoping it now goes higher to 78 and then 80. {quote} You're describing what a good government would do....
Congrats!
Just out of interest do you use guaranteed or non guaranteed stops? If later than slippage could be a factor.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #709
  • May 2, 2016 11:39pm May 2, 2016 11:39pm
bingo
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
  • #710
  • May 2, 2016 11:53pm May 2, 2016 11:53pm
Quoting Starcraftmaz
{quote} I did, I was position building yesterday as I said on these forums (I said it's a good day to build longs for tomorrow - ie. today). I've added more longs today though, all are SLed in positive territory now due to big rise in AUDUSD, but at various points. The only problem is if the market has been buying because it now expects a hold, in which case it might stall at 722. Either way, I've pretty much already made my profit, though I'm hoping it now goes higher to 78 and then 80. {quote} You're describing what a good government would do....
Compared to other countries our Government is not THAT bad. It can be better though. So how are you LONGS feeling? I hope you had a chance to jump out.
  • #711
  • May 2, 2016 11:59pm May 2, 2016 11:59pm
retrace will happen maybe , in like Flynn
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
  • #712
  • May 2, 2016 11:59pm May 2, 2016 11:59pm
Quoting PaulDaemon
{quote} I agree with you. I believe technically its a monthly pullback. I posted this on another thread. I like to trade keeping fundamentals in mind but as of late as everyone can see the AUD is trending against fundamentals. On the charts what you are seeing is a pullback/correction on the monthly. Since the start of the down trend (march 2013) after every big drop the aud retracted around 600 to 800 pips, always to the previous support level with a monthly candle of around 500 pips then straight back down again. The current retractment is 750...
If AUD continue the pattern from the highs of 2013 Im now looking for a continuation of the down trend of about 1800 pips.
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #713
  • May 3, 2016 12:03am May 3, 2016 12:03am
Quoting PaulDaemon
{quote} If AUD continue the pattern from the highs of 2013 Im now looking for a continuation of the down trend of about 1800 pips.
well buys are a safe bet longer term Paul swaps , also have gbp/aud sell lol you might be right regarding continuation we see where it heads
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
  • #714
  • May 3, 2016 12:06am May 3, 2016 12:06am
Quoting Aussi
retrace will happen maybe , in like Flynn
Retrace will happen, the real questions are how much more pain for longs first and how much relief will they get from the retrace (ie how big the retrace will be). I don't have the answers but given I have been predominantly short for over 2 months I am more than happy to hedge some in 7550 to 7570 area as it's at least 150 pips from the last high and just above the last low (7549).
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #715
  • May 3, 2016 12:07am May 3, 2016 12:07am
Quoting dab
{quote} Congrats! Just out of interest do you use guaranteed or non guaranteed stops? If later than slippage could be a factor.
Quoting cold chisel
{quote} Compared to other countries our Government is not THAT bad. It can be better though. So how are you LONGS feeling? I hope you had a chance to jump out.
Non guaranteed in this case - I was just so sure. I lost about 50% of the profit I could have had if I closed right before. That's life though

On the government issue, couldn't disagree more. The mob in charge doesn't even want to get rid of negative gearing - aka bribing speculators to speculate on property prices while they lose money due to their terrible "investment" (ie. speculation). Terrible.
  • #716
  • May 3, 2016 12:11am May 3, 2016 12:11am
Quoting Starcraftmaz
{quote} {quote} Non guaranteed in this case - I was just so sure. I lost about 50% of the profit I could have had if I closed right before. That's life though On the government issue, couldn't disagree more. The mob in charge doesn't even want to get rid of negative gearing - aka bribing speculators to speculate on property prices while they lose money due to their terrible "investment" (ie. speculation). Terrible.
shame on stevens lowing interest rates a increase would have started the bust and self funded people would have got more money
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
  • #717
  • May 3, 2016 12:17am May 3, 2016 12:17am
Quoting Aussi
{quote} shame on stevens lowing interest rates a increase would have started the bust and self funded people would have got more money
shouldn't hurt self funded retirees too much given they are bound to at least have their own homes. As with everything else it's timing the market but most won't act quickly enough in a relatively non liquid market (property) when prices start dropping. My guess is it will coincide with when rates start going up again so won't be for at least a little while.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #718
  • May 3, 2016 2:53am May 3, 2016 2:53am
loveeeeeeeee a retrace
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
  • #719
  • May 3, 2016 4:37am May 3, 2016 4:37am
Quoting PA is King
Rally up around .7700-7720 that stalls might be a good sell point.
Nailed it. Sometimes I'm right.
  • #720
  • May 3, 2016 4:46am May 3, 2016 4:46am
Quoting PA is King
{quote} Nailed it. Sometimes I'm right.
that's why you respected
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
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