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Let's Trade Options

  • #12,781
  • Apr 30, 2016 8:01pm Apr 30, 2016 8:01pm
In my boredom, I sometimes diddle with stuff:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: VIX CYCLES.jpg Size: 140 KB


Although this is a rather unscientific study, mid-month vol pops have occurred 11 out of the last 17 months, with 6 showing no significant pops and only two prior occasions where we've had two "popless" months in a row. (One possibility as to why we didn't have the cyclical pop in March was because we were falling off a fairly high Feb precipice ... ).
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,782
  • Apr 30, 2016 8:08pm Apr 30, 2016 8:08pm
I have long since ceased to trade SPX, SPY directionally, but this is interesting:

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Click to Enlarge Name: SPX PA.jpg Size: 151 KB


Post-BOJ, respecting the lower bound of that purple channel, having broken out of the yellow ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,783
  • Apr 30, 2016 8:22pm Apr 30, 2016 8:22pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
In my boredom, I sometimes diddle with stuff:
I am getting to be pretty much a one trick pony. If the trick works, though....yee-haw...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,784
  • Apr 30, 2016 8:36pm Apr 30, 2016 8:36pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}I am getting to be pretty much a one trick pony. If the trick works, though....yee-haw...
Makes for a simple trading life, looking at maybe, 4, 5 underlyings tops ... . VIX, VXX, UVXY, SVXY -- there's four ... . Lol.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,785
  • Apr 30, 2016 9:11pm Apr 30, 2016 9:11pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Makes for a simple trading life, looking at maybe, 4, 5 underlyings tops ... . VIX, VXX, UVXY, SVXY -- there's four ... . Lol.
well that's the bear side, equity index options spreads for the bull side, occasional bi-directional trades to catch ER iv ramps, occasional wild hare long calls or long puts. I have tried selling premium - via credit spreads - and I have made some money but also those trades have been the biggest losers, the biggest holes blown in my accounts. So fuck that. I am m/l a confirmed "event-driven" trader. When "normal" volatility is allowed to flow in the markets, trading options is all right.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,786
  • Apr 30, 2016 9:33pm Apr 30, 2016 9:33pm
Quoting The Fool
I am m/l a confirmed "event-driven" trader. When "normal" volatility is allowed to flow in the markets, trading options is all right.....
to tell you the truth - I have never been happier as a trader. I rarely stress about the trades I am in. Most everything is defined-risk, I set gtc targets on every entry.....most everything is on the 2-3 weeks to 2-3 months timeframe. "Events" that I am trying to trade around I usually am tracking from months out. I am....zoomed out ya'll....& soooo totally laid back...
Inserted Video
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,787
  • May 1, 2016 2:43am May 1, 2016 2:43am
Quoting The Fool
in AAPL DC for 21c, the May 6/May 13 $95 puts are worth 42c now - if AAPL would pull back to $95 by late next week I could net out 4x or more.....but bulls are looking pretty strong and I might be a fool to wait.....
all I have to do in the coming week is watch AAPL bounce back a bit and settle on $95 by Friday........otherwise, I might start looking at ivr on some of the done APR ER names, maybe look out to Jun/July calendars for the next ER round....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-05-01_0041aapl.png Size: 70 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,788
  • May 1, 2016 3:01am May 1, 2016 3:01am
Quoting The Fool
the done APR ER names, maybe look out to Jun/July calendars for the next ER round....
....AAPL, for instance, you can do Jun/July $110 calls for around 20c...next ER is 7/19, early in the week following July
opex......you can do Jun/Jul $115 calls for a dime
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,789
  • May 1, 2016 3:07am May 1, 2016 3:07am
https://northmantrader.com/technical-charts/
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,790
  • May 1, 2016 4:22pm May 1, 2016 4:22pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}well that's the bear side, equity index options spreads for the bull side, occasional bi-directional trades to catch ER iv ramps, occasional wild hare long calls or long puts. I have tried selling premium - via credit spreads - and I have made some money but also those trades have been the biggest losers, the biggest holes blown in my accounts. So fuck that. I am m/l a confirmed "event-driven" trader. When "normal" volatility is allowed to flow in the markets, trading options is all right.....
That premium selling gets tiresome, and you can take it up the glory hole in the short term and have to work that off for several cycles with a bunch of rolling, dancing, spinning, dodging, in the mean time tying up buying power that you'd could be playing with ... . The spot we're in now volatility wise, simply too good to pass up without piling into VIX/VIX derivatives, so stealing your UVXY 10/13 short put vert idea:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UVXY SPV.jpg Size: 118 KB


I'm shooting for a fill slightly above the mid, since the spread is wide and price might back into the setup from where it's at now (17.02). Post-fill, I'll look at putting some long call verts on financed with whatever I got for the short put vertie.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,791
  • May 1, 2016 4:31pm May 1, 2016 4:31pm
Quoting The Fool
https://northmantrader.com/technical-charts/
Thumbs up on those charts. And Cramer says "we're not in a sideways market." I'm not sure what charts he's looking at, but we've been sideways since Sept 2014 in my book. Dollar cost averaging way up here into a broad US index fund (talking 401(k) here) when your money's going nowhere is fucking stupid ... . You're watering down the nice cost basis you put on from 2009 to 2014 ... . So, like, quit doing that ... . If anything, wait and move a little fundage in on these dips to 1800; otherwise, contribute into a bond fund in the short term ... . (Steps off soap box).
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,792
  • May 2, 2016 12:28am May 2, 2016 12:28am
May Day = Dead Ass Markets. So much for this Asian setting any kind of tone ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,793
  • May 2, 2016 1:09am May 2, 2016 1:09am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
May Day = Dead Ass Markets. So much for this Asian setting any kind of tone ... .
we could see a pretty flat week with NFP Friday. I am still looking for long vol positioning opps for a sell May/go away scenario.......maybe the bulls will pump one more time to the spoos 2,100, we'll see.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,794
  • May 2, 2016 2:14pm May 2, 2016 2:14pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
so stealing your UVXY 10/13 short put vert idea
my guess is we will see US stawks rally into mid May, May opex, or later. UVXY will dig down sub $12, maybe sub $10, and flirt with another R/S. Previous R/S has been 4:1 or 5:1, so if they get to sub $10, they would R/S it to ~$50....? I have been breaking off the far wings of all UVXY flys I am in, trying to do the last bits of that, which will end me up with a big pile of Jun call verts like $32/$45, $29/$41, etc....the threat of a UVXY R/S is the main reason I am doing this....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,795
  • May 2, 2016 4:18pm May 2, 2016 4:18pm
sell in May, go away......that was just a dream........just a dream
Inserted Video
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,796
  • May 2, 2016 7:44pm May 2, 2016 7:44pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} That premium selling gets tiresome, and you can take it up the glory hole in the short term and have to work that off for several cycles with a bunch of rolling, dancing, spinning, dodging, in the mean time tying up buying power that you'd could be playing with ... . The spot we're in now volatility wise, simply too good to pass up without piling into VIX/VIX derivatives, so stealing your UVXY 10/13 short put vert idea: {image} I'm shooting for a fill slightly above the mid, since the spread is wide and price might back into the setup from...
Filled the 10/13 for 1.20 shortly after the open. Could have gotten more, naturally ... . Threw on a 9/12 for a 1.00 just for shits and giggles ... . 2.20 in credit to mess with long call vert setups ... . May be worth waiting a few days to see if there is more cave-age ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,797
  • May 2, 2016 9:11pm May 2, 2016 9:11pm
I've got a pretty full boat for setups ... . Now, the hand sitting begins, pretty much until something hits its take profit ... . Twiddle twiddle twiddle ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,798
  • May 2, 2016 9:50pm May 2, 2016 9:50pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
... . May be worth waiting a few days to see if there is more cave-age ... .
if UVXY keeps dropping, you might not do better on spreads, as the iv will drop, too.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,799
  • May 3, 2016 2:19am May 3, 2016 2:19am
let's see....Monday, market up 0.75%, Tuesday, market down 0.75%....so these prolly won't fill at 15c....but great r:r and chance for a quick 2x or 3x on any modest vol spike
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-05-03_0014uvxy1.png Size: 119 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,800
  • May 3, 2016 9:58am May 3, 2016 9:58am
Quoting The Fool
let's see....Monday, market up 0.75%, Tuesday, market down 0.75%....so these prolly won't fill at 15c....but great r:r and chance for a quick 2x or 3x on any modest vol spike
YEP, flatline bullshit forever.....no fill @ 15c with the iv jump......snorezzzzzzzz
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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