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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #54,421
  • Edited 9:22am Apr 30, 2016 8:27am | Edited 9:22am
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  • #54,422
  • Apr 30, 2016 10:25am Apr 30, 2016 10:25am
Quoting fti
{quote} is not stupid. I think jesus said , we deceived. The basics is just foundations keep mind ready observe change and self rigidity. Just tools. Then market have behavioural signatures. When one can recognise the signatures, is easy use the correct tools conquer em. Tools in wrong hands, they work wrong way. When the mind is dynamic, is difficult to defeat. The crowd, they very rigid bunch, easy to defeat. The establishment, they even more rigid. but they have massive power. So you never meet power forces head on. Unless you believe...
Hello FTI,

I have been lucky enough to find your awesome thread, in a sea of quite useless other threads.

I have done a number of quantitative studies, they clearly show that markets like the S&P and EUR/USD used to be trade-able back when you started this thread but now they are very, very close to market-efficient.

So, in your first posts, you'd use some moving averages (which slowly started losing giving a statistical edge since the beginning of this century) and it worked.

How would a trader do in these modern years instead? **I** have extensively experienced "screen reading" but **sound mathematics** tell me that if I take a succesful trade, it's not because I am good, but because I am lucky and have just picked the right side of a pure 50% coin flip.

How may I trust my very subjective self being right, when objective math proves me I cannot be right?
Now, how do I keep being consistent if math tells me I am just having a luck streak and in these years I am guaranteed no true edge at all?
  • #54,423
  • Edited 12:08pm Apr 30, 2016 11:00am | Edited 12:08pm
Quoting dfumagalli
{quote} Hello FTI, I have been lucky enough to find your awesome thread, in a sea of quite useless other threads. I have done a number of quantitative studies, they clearly show that markets like the S&P and EUR/USD used to be trade-able back when you started this thread but now they are very, very close to market-efficient. So, in your first posts, you'd use some moving averages (which slowly started losing giving a statistical edge since the beginning of this century) and it worked. How would a trader do in these modern years instead? **I** have...
i guess, you have not read the thread. need be naked.
if you are using any indicators to trade, you are still novice trader.
and to be profitable, you no need have to be right, just profitable.
In trading there is no rights and wrongs, only profits and losses( is mathematical absolutes).
i am sorry, due to my health related, i cannot guide you.
you are welcomed to read thread before it becomes a decade long(if i am unable kick the bucket), or you can ask help.
on here are bunch of very nice friends who are very helpful.

regards

PS just for tickling. The ancients were way ahead of us in knowledge(maybe not digitally only).
Otherwise humanity may have gone extinct in ice age or the great flood.
So modern is only a state of feelings. Try build a pyramid and you may understand.

who is the champion?
the man that crosses the winner line first and dies there.
Or the man that crosses the line last, lives 50 years tell his grandchildren about it.
yes, it all depends on your perspective, goals,agenda.
  • #54,424
  • Apr 30, 2016 12:19pm Apr 30, 2016 12:19pm
Quoting fti
{quote} i guess, you have not read the thread. need be naked. if you are using any indicators to trade, you are still novice trader. and to be profitable, you no need have to be right, just profitable. In trading there is no rights and wrongs, only profits and losses( is mathematical absolutes).
Thank you, you're very kind to reply to us little readers!

I trade with price action since some years. Only stuff I have on screen is usually 1 or 2 support / resistance lines closest to price.
Is this... naked enough?

I have understood your next replies (all it takes is Zen! ), just not the first.
I am going to read the thread, it's going to take a while!
  • #54,425
  • Apr 30, 2016 1:08pm Apr 30, 2016 1:08pm
Quoting dfumagalli
{quote} Thank you, you're very kind to reply to us little readers! I trade with price action since some years. Only stuff I have on screen is usually 1 or 2 support / resistance lines closest to price. Is this... naked enough? I have understood your next replies (all it takes is Zen! ), just not the first. I am going to read the thread, it's going to take a while!
ahhh thank you for taking effort reading little writer's long long explanations.

different people have different comfort zone with nakedness.
Me only look at price bars. Listen to world broking boxes sentiments and tones.
Read news wires and events as they unfold.
mostly i spar markets making prices get knowledge of the terrain i operating in. Mostly these my scouts.
The technicals i already can see from the price. Technicals reads have rigid forms.
with experience one can see its position on the charts by their behaviour elements.
mostly they are slow for decision making processes.

take your time, read slowly, there are many nice friends here who will help if you have any questions.
Mostly the training is in the first 200 pages.

regards
  • #54,426
  • Edited 3:25am May 1, 2016 2:04am | Edited 3:25am
Quoting fti
{quote} the old pump fribulating. but will be ok. catching up alo on some learning. maybe you like enjoy look see look see a little too. enjoy. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BW31YyMeoio regards https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=baKav_qlVT8
Much thanks, have not watched these, but the writing you provided in the below thread is very good. Will give these a watch. I find these very enlightening. I also like the idea of relax vigilant very much; I think that is the best of ALL worlds.

God bless my friend

Regards

Quite awhile ago, someone close gave me a hand made card that was bought from a charity event for kids.
It writes, "Without learning, the wise becomes foolish, By learning, the foolish becomes wise." - Confucius.

Since, Im a believer of "活到老，学到老"(live to learn) , I added/modified, the words "constant" at obvious places and wrote a "be inspired", and placed it right in front of my desk where I can see it daily.
More of such proverbs at http://www.dartmouth.edu/~chinese/Te...erbs/12gb.html
Or, in yours words, "Use it, or lose it".

Not forgetting, "学好三年不得，学恶三日便成。" - loosely translated, takes a life time to learn and cultivate goodness, while 3 days to undo everything.
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #54,427
  • Edited 7:02am May 1, 2016 6:02am | Edited 7:02am
Quoting RelaxRay
{quote} Much thanks, have not watched these, but the writing you provided in the below thread is very good. Will give these a watch. I find these very enlightening. I also like the idea of relax vigilant very much; I think that is the best of ALL worlds. God bless my friend Regards Quite awhile ago, someone close gave me a hand made card that was bought from a charity event for kids. It writes, "Without learning, the wise becomes foolish, By learning, the foolish becomes wise." - Confucius. Since, Im a believer of "活到老，学到老"(live...
ahhhhh

"3days to undo"
actually takes 1 foolish thought, undo a whole century of goodness.

anyway , no matter, be kind, and have a educated heart.
jesus last advicement said "forgive us, for we know not wtfish we doing.

God Bless.

regards

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  • #54,428
  • May 1, 2016 6:45am May 1, 2016 6:45am
OMG ooseness

i have hope.
thank you sinbad the sailor.
now i better start saving buy drugs.

http://www.kurzweilai.net/scientists...cells-required

regards
  • #54,429
  • May 1, 2016 9:50am May 1, 2016 9:50am
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  • #54,430
  • Edited 11:08pm May 1, 2016 10:53pm | Edited 11:08pm
Quoting fti
{quote} ahhhhh "3days to undo" actually takes 1 foolish thought, undo a whole century of goodness. anyway , no matter, be kind, and have a educated heart. jesus last advicement said "forgive us, for we know not wtfish we doing. God Bless. regards https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t3IDoS6zYm4
yup is true.

FTI, at times, I wish could chat more with you, however I feel am still in foundation stages in my game, and that does not leave much room for other activities except learning while watching.

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“Don't Gain The World & Lose Your Soul, Wisdom Is Better Than Silver Or Gold.”
― Bob Marley
(I should add health here for some sake, especially me. Perhaps "Health is the greatest wealth" as well.)

and AOW
"Thus, though we have heard of stupid haste in war, cleverness has never been seen associated with long delays"


Regards

oops, turning this into a reminder for self again.. toodles.
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #54,431
  • Edited 9:14am May 2, 2016 8:22am | Edited 9:14am
Quoting RelaxRay
{quote} yup is true. FTI, at times, I wish could chat more with you, however I feel am still in foundation stages in my game, and that does not leave much room for other activities except learning while watching. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P9dae36nQUM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pb7KjMTgK-Q Don't Gain The World & Lose Your Soul, Wisdom Is Better Than Silver Or Gold. ― Bob Marley (I should add health here for some sake, especially me. Perhaps "Health is the greatest wealth" as well.) and AOW "Thus,...

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regards

calculated risk, yaya calculated and by design.

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  • #54,432
  • Edited 11:32am May 2, 2016 11:04am | Edited 11:32am
Is difficult for people understand, unless one has experienced it.
what its like to have acute chest pains for 15 hours,
meditate for 5 hours, fart continueslly for half and hour,
then experience no pain for 1 day.

No one understands the relief from that sea of sufferings.

same with bad trades. by or without design.
Thank you to God.

And they ask,
you are a christian, why the jim beans.....are you meditating.

no one can feel what the pain does to a AB normal functioning heart.
untill one goes thru it.


regards

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  • #54,433
  • May 2, 2016 11:50am May 2, 2016 11:50am
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  • #54,434
  • Edited 1:22pm May 2, 2016 1:06pm | Edited 1:22pm
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for a moment i thought was Rudyard Kipling, sorry.

regards
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  • #54,435
  • May 2, 2016 1:35pm May 2, 2016 1:35pm
Quoting fti
Is difficult for people understand, unless one has experienced it. what its like to have acute chest pains for 15 hours, meditate for 5 hours, fart continueslly for half and hour, then experience no pain for 1 day. No one understands the relief from that sea of sufferings. same with bad trades. by or without design. Thank you to God. And they ask, you are a christian, why the jim beans.....are you meditating. no one can feel what the pain does to a AB normal functioning heart. untill one goes thru it. regards https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v29clGMWU84...

take care and stay strong, not done with you yet.. lol. hehe...

Fan of "retail poetry"?
http://hellopoetry.com/

can find some nice and original reads..

Rgds
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #54,436
  • Edited 2:13pm May 2, 2016 1:51pm | Edited 2:13pm
Quoting RelaxRay
{quote} take care and stay strong, not done with you yet.. lol. hehe... Fan of "retail poetry"? http://hellopoetry.com/ can find some nice and original reads.. Rgds
ahhh one not understand until the pain is real. physical pain.
The type pain one cannot touch. cannot rub, cannot escape from.
every organ inside one gets affected.

only thing one can do is say aiyo aiyo.
and it not helps.
last thing one can do is make poetry. no energy for it.
docs ask one whats wrong and all one can do is stare in pain and wish one was asleep.


regards
  • #54,437
  • May 2, 2016 9:12pm May 2, 2016 9:12pm
Quoting fti
{quote} ahhh one not understand until the pain is real. physical pain. The type pain one cannot touch. cannot rub, cannot escape from. every organ inside one gets affected. only thing one can do is say aiyo aiyo. and it not helps. last thing one can do is make poetry. no energy for it. docs ask one whats wrong and all one can do is stare in pain and wish one was asleep. regards
Take care my friend

Rgds
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #54,438
  • May 3, 2016 2:45am May 3, 2016 2:45am
Quoting fti
{quote} ahhh one not understand until the pain is real. physical pain. The type pain one cannot touch. cannot rub, cannot escape from. every organ inside one gets affected. only thing one can do is say aiyo aiyo. and it not helps. last thing one can do is make poetry. no energy for it. docs ask one whats wrong and all one can do is stare in pain and wish one was asleep. regards

.... cannot do much to help but send a hug and prayers.........and nice music sometimes

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #54,439
  • May 3, 2016 9:42am May 3, 2016 9:42am
Quoting RelaxRay
{quote} Take care my friend Rgds


regards
  • #54,440
  • Edited 12:43pm May 3, 2016 9:49am | Edited 12:43pm
Quoting alexandria
{quote} .... cannot do much to help but send a hug and prayers.........and nice music sometimes Alex
: ))


nothing is expected.
your prayers and good tidings are well received.
is so kind of you.thank you alex.

I had some time, destracted my mind after long meditation.
The subjects i probed very wierd.
take a look.

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hahahahaha sometimes stuff i explore even surprises me. hahahahahahahaha.
maybe i just trying scare myself to wake up.
fankenstining super traders?

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Pc=dd(i)-ss(e)
Fair Pc=HbdUnIMF

HbUni=How badly do yoU need It My Friend.
BWDIK
=but what do i know.
Trust Me, I'm An Engineer !
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me ask God. teach me please.
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regards
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