The Big secret to trading success | Page 16 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Secret to Success and profitable trading - What is it? 431 replies

Trade management... The secret to success 27 replies

The Big Dog Trading Secret 272 replies

most simple method to achieve big success 34 replies

Trade on wednesday and thursday.big secret 5 replies

Attachments: The Big secret to trading success
Exit Attachments

The Big secret to trading success

  • #301
  • May 1, 2016 2:36pm May 1, 2016 2:36pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: tooslow2.png Size: 46 KB



Here is my "secret":

A bar makes a NEW DAILY high and closes. Next bar fails to make a higher high and reverses. Sell when price drops below the open price of the current bar.

A bar makes a NEW DAILY low and closes. Next bar fails to make a lower low and reverses. Buy when price rises above the open price of the current bar.

Let me rephrase in the form of yes/no or true/false questions.

1) Did a new daily high or new daily low happen during the previous bar. If YES/TRUE go to question 2, otherwise find another pair.

2) Did this bar test ( get near ) the new daily high or new daily low of the previous bar. If YES/TRUE go to question 3, otherwise find another pair.

3) Has price returned to the open price of the current bar. If YES/TRUE enter the trade in the direction price is crossing the open, otherwise do not enter the trade.

"Successful people ask better questions, and as a result, they get better answers." - Tony Robbins

Socratic method is named after the classical Greek philosopher Socrates. It is a form of inquiry and discussion between individuals, based on asking and answering questions to stimulate critical thinking and to illuminate ideas.

"Perfection is not when you have nothing more to add, but when you have nothing more to take away." - Antoine De Saint Exupery

"It is not about adding on, but taking away. The less technique, the better you are." - Bruce Lee


Please understand none of this is original or new and this is presented for EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. You may find your results may differ. Please check with an accredited financial specialist before using real money. FOREX trading can be risky. YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED!
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #302
  • Edited 4:08pm May 1, 2016 3:50pm | Edited 4:08pm
Quoting Ramadas
{quote} OK, so if this is a fact, how then this happens? {quote} from http://www.financemagnates.com/forex...s-and-profits/ Quarter after quarter profitability is about 35% and not 5%.
These statistics are complete joke, and not accurate for many reasons:

1. The time frame is insignificant. To get more accurate statistic you need at least 1 year for short term traders and at least 2-3 years for mid-long term traders.

2. These statistics show nothing about the size of the trade sample. You have to make just one profitable trade during the quarter, to be counted as profitable.

3. To make reliable statistics you need larger trade sample of at least 500 - 1000 trades.

In fact the profitability is even worse than you expect. Aprox. 95% of traders are net negative after 2 years of trading. BUT from what is left (the 5% profitable traders) only half are making real profits. And in reality the top 1% of all traders makes more money then the total profits of the other 4%. AND at least half of that goes to the top 0.1% of all traders. This means only 1 in 1000 traders makes serious cash (millions) on a regular basis.

You can find many millionaires in the real businesses. But you can hardly find more then a few people who made millions from forex trading.
Bad news for the get rich quick crowd......
  • #303
  • May 1, 2016 4:27pm May 1, 2016 4:27pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: TooSlow.png Size: 46 KB


Hourly "Secret".

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: tooslow1.png Size: 58 KB


Monthly "Secret".
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #304
  • May 1, 2016 9:14pm May 1, 2016 9:14pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} The dreary sadness of that is that a 10,000 dollar account compounds to a million dollars in less than five years at 10% per month. A traders life would be changed long before that five years however. If that is not quick, then I do not know what is! Edit, had to change the math from the first post as I was in error.
Doesn't allow for tax, living costs (if don't have other job) etc but even 9% per month would get to $1m in less than 5 years. Problem is without patience how many can achieve 9% per month consistently for even a year, let alone 5?

(Not saying I can achieve 9%, I've said elsewhere I'd be happy with 3% per month and believe I can achieve 3 to 5%, hopefully in near future)
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #305
  • May 1, 2016 9:29pm May 1, 2016 9:29pm
Quoting dab
{quote} Doesn't allow for tax, living costs (if don't have other job) etc but even 9% per month would get to $1m in less than 5 years. Problem is without patience how many can achieve 9% per month consistently for even a year, let alone 5? (Not saying I can achieve 9%, I've said elsewhere I'd be happy with 3% per month and believe I can achieve 3 to 5%, hopefully in near future)
That compounding concepts does not account for taxes and living costs because frankly, one should not be living out the trading account before it twice the size of yearly tax free income. In short, if you make 50K a year before taxes, you need a 100,000 dollar account before you start to draw from it. And this is assuming that you compounded this far from a 10k account. Until then, trade the H4 and higher time frames and keep your day job.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #306
  • Edited 10:06pm May 1, 2016 9:37pm | Edited 10:06pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} That compounding concepts does not account for taxes and living costs because frankly, one should not be living out the trading account before it twice the size of yearly tax free income. In short, if you make 50K a year before taxes, you need a 100,000 dollar account before you start to draw from it. And this is assuming that you compounded this far from a 10k account. Until then, trade the H4 and higher time frames and keep your day job.


Christ, which planet are we living on. To expect 9% per month for an extended period say (10-30 years)......inconceivable!!! The best I have seen for any retail trader (who diversifies) that has any chance of being valid is a monthly return (CMGR) of 3.1% between 1981 and 2010 (all profits reinvested) which translates to an annual return (CAGR) of 44.25% accompanied with a max drawdown of perhaps 12.5%. This is being generous as it significantly outperforms the best of the FM's on a Gross return basis....so treat it with some doubt.

Inserted Video
  • #307
  • May 1, 2016 9:44pm May 1, 2016 9:44pm
This talk about %returns per month must take into account %risk per trade and consider the aspect of drawdown and risk of ruin, otherwise its incomplete info to make any inference.
  • #308
  • May 1, 2016 9:46pm May 1, 2016 9:46pm
Quoting skyway
This talk about %returns per month must take into account %risk per trade and consider the aspect of risk of ruin, otherwise its incomplete info to make any inference.
Exacckery. Just highlighting the obvious in your post. :-)
  • #309
  • May 1, 2016 10:31pm May 1, 2016 10:31pm
Quoting Copernicus
{quote} Christ, which planet are we living on. To expect 9% per month for an extended period say (10-30 years)......inconceivable!!! The best I have seen for any retail trader (who diversifies) that has any chance of being valid is a monthly return (CMGR) of 3.1% between 1981 and 2010 (all profits reinvested) which translates to an annual return (CAGR) of 44.25% accompanied with a max drawdown of perhaps 12.5%. This is being generous as it significantly outperforms the best of the FM's on a Gross return basis....so treat it with some...
We are on planet WHATIF!!

A 10% per month compounding formula involves pure speculation, and willingness to press any trend we catch to the absolute max. As I said before, I hobby trade, and would never ever trade OPM in the fashion that I do. billytt trades in a very similar fashion, except that he uses more leverage. I squeeze the life out of every trend I catch.

If I become very rich, I could not come back here and boast on it, because by any measure, they way I do things means I got lucky and did not catch a long lasting sideways market.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #310
  • May 1, 2016 10:36pm May 1, 2016 10:36pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} This is kind of it, from a hobby trade standpoint...ie, my EA accounts. Why put all eggs in one basket, when there are a lot of eggs and a lot of baskets? I am not trying to take away from others who are learning the market on a micro scale lot size as hobbiests...hell, even as demo traders, taking live trades to help build up systematic logic and confidence is all good by me. I don't think that everybody needs to have the same view of trading, risk:reward, lot sizes, profit ranges, trade ideology... This is something that should be individually...
Without a doubt this is an accurate statement in my view.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #311
  • May 2, 2016 12:25am May 2, 2016 12:25am
Quoting cat
Thought I'd post this as it's quite instructive. I always put a trend line in when I can. This is from the 22nd on the Dax, a very rangy day with no clear direction, but there were loads of pips on offer to prove that you don't need a trending market to make money. They are the 2m and the 10m charts. The 10m shows the resistance level which is the 200 Simple Moving Average. it's the 2m though which is important here, because what I want to show is that when you have a trendline in, you don't necessarily have to wait for the price to break through...
beautiful !
...
  • #312
  • May 2, 2016 12:26am May 2, 2016 12:26am
Quoting TooSlow
{image} Here is my "secret": A bar makes a NEW DAILY high and closes. Next bar fails to make a higher high and reverses. Sell when price drops below the open price of the current bar. A bar makes a NEW DAILY low and closes. Next bar fails to make a lower low and reverses. Buy when price rises above the open price of the current bar. Let me rephrase in the form of yes/no or true/false questions. 1) Did a new daily high or new daily low happen during the previous bar. If YES/TRUE go to question 2, otherwise find another pair. 2) Did this...
Very good indeed...
Trade fearless not careless...
Syed Mohsin Ali Profit This Month: -137
  • #313
  • May 2, 2016 12:29am May 2, 2016 12:29am
Quoting TooSlow
{image} Here is my "secret": A bar makes a NEW DAILY high and closes. Next bar fails to make a higher high and reverses. Sell when price drops below the open price of the current bar. A bar makes a NEW DAILY low and closes. Next bar fails to make a lower low and reverses. Buy when price rises above the open price of the current bar. Let me rephrase in the form of yes/no or true/false questions. 1) Did a new daily high or new daily low happen during the previous bar. If YES/TRUE go to question 2, otherwise find another pair. 2) Did this...
Dear would you like to explain about tp. & sl.. thanks.
Trade fearless not careless...
Syed Mohsin Ali Profit This Month: -137
  • #314
  • May 2, 2016 12:37am May 2, 2016 12:37am
Quoting bradu
from what i have read so far, this is the place where are the most succesfull traders (long term ones - the ones that found some kind of edge ) im looking forward to see / learn some new things from you, but so far i see the "usual" stuff (trend, s/r, mm...etc)....it seems that is a piece missing
you're not looking hard enough. Try again buddy
...
  • #315
  • May 2, 2016 1:13am May 2, 2016 1:13am
Quoting Piquant
{quote} beautiful !
If it brings green ones, it's always beautiful!
  • #316
  • May 2, 2016 1:34am May 2, 2016 1:34am
A good reason why most of the traders fall under 90%, at least we all have a system which has a win rate far better than flipping a coin.

Inserted Video
I just don't post analysis I trade it .
  • #317
  • May 2, 2016 2:19am May 2, 2016 2:19am
Quoting Piquant
{quote} you're not looking hard enough. Try again buddy
hehe...i appreciate your enthusiasm...
we will talk again in a few years
im sure you think you had an eureka moment....you will have plenty of them, they are just steps in your evolution as a trader.

cat has some valid points, alphomega has some too....beauty of this forex market is that is the same as life itself, as Henry Ford put it best: wether you think you can, or you think you cant, you are right
  • #318
  • May 2, 2016 3:00am May 2, 2016 3:00am
Quoting bradu
{quote} hehe...i appreciate your enthusiasm... we will talk again in a few years im sure you think you had an eureka moment....you will have plenty of them, they are just steps in your evolution as a trader. cat has some valid points, alphomega has some too....beauty of this forex market is that is the same as life itself, as Henry Ford put it best: wether you think you can, or you think you cant, you are right
I would argue with the universal validity of the above statement of Mr. Ford... A trader friend of mine was strongly believing in making a living by trading, invested all her time and all her funds, even other people's funds over the past 6 years... During that time she had burnt through more than $200k. After her account had been zeroed out last week and there were no more funds to trade with, the next day she took her own life...
  • #319
  • May 2, 2016 3:20am May 2, 2016 3:20am
Are markets rigged? Not really, they're too big to rig unless one can control the physical side (think commodities). But even then the riggers can and often fail.

Anyway, assume they are rigged, the boys still need movement to make money so why not try to join them. For example, many people say the Gold market is rigged, the boys have been moving it down for a few years now (until recently). I think they have a point and there was some plan to get the price down, if so, why not join them for the short sale party? There was plenty of chances to do so. Do you think the Gold shorts have been complaining about the rigged game or do you think they've been saying 'got to love playing a rigged game' (if it was one). Whatever the case, they were short the market went down a lot and so they made some excellent returns.

Are the 'boys' out to get everyone? Yes, but only because they need people to lose to make money, that's the nature of the beast. But who is 'everyone'? Everyone is often some of the boys on the other side of the boys looking to move the market one way or the other. So a big desk like Barclays might try to move things some of the time but what if another big desk like HSBC is positioned the other way, you think one desk is going to let the other walk off with all the money? Nope, so sometimes they win, other times they don't. Think about it, if Barclays or some other massive entity could 'control' the markets for much of the time, there would not be any markets because who goes into a Casino when EVERY time you lose because they is no bet allowed in the Casino that enables you to win?

Also focus on the advantages small traders have, like the ability to get in/out of our trades with zero hassle, believe me, if ever you come across one of the 'boys' in a bar and get talking turkey he'll say something like 'you don't know how lucky you retail traders are never having to struggle with your positions'. Both sides have good advantages and disadvantages. retail traders should therefore count their lucky stars as to some of the advantages we have while doing our best to negate the disadvantages. If you feel the main disadvantage is the boys being able to move the markets learn to think like them, learn their tricks (they're all on the charts in plain view), wait for them to play their games and then JUMP ONBOARD THE MOVES THEY CREATE.
Road To Wisdom? To err and err and err again, but less and less and less...
  • #320
  • Edited 3:46am May 2, 2016 3:32am | Edited 3:46am
Quoting bradu
{quote} hehe...i appreciate your enthusiasm... we will talk again in a few years im sure you think you had an eureka moment....you will have plenty of them, they are just steps in your evolution as a trader. cat has some valid points, alphomega has some too....beauty of this forex market is that is the same as life itself, as Henry Ford put it best: wether you think you can, or you think you cant, you are right
Referring back to your original comment about there being "something missing", there will always be something missing, as I'm sure was your implication. Trading is and can never be a game of perfect. I have had plenty of ' Eureka ' moments along the way, but the more I learnt, the fewer they became as I realized that such moments are like the false summit when you are climbing a mountain - you think you're at the top only to find out as you reach the crest that the next summit is way off in the distance, only with trading, you never reach the summit because there isn't one, you can only climb higher and higher.

All we can do is, as the cliche goes, ' put the odds in our favour ', and in trading terms this is the ' edge' that we must have so as to come out ahead at the end of the day, week, month, year etc. This is the hardest part, because we have to learn to internalize our losses, to view them in the same way we view all our other expenses, whether it be paying bills, taxes or merely buying food, and just as we don't walk out of the supermarket feeling deflated and depressed because we have just spent whatever on the week's shopping ( we may do of course, especially if the wife and kids have added 40% to the bill by throwing expensive luxuries into the basket every thirty seconds!) so must our losses be detached from any form of emotional response.

I can only speak personally, but for me the real turning point, by which I mean that period of time where I was able to completely concentrate on my trading for a living, was when I had fully accepted that to win well, I had to lose well. I believe anyone, if they hang in there long enough, can learn enough about the markets to give themselves a concerted edge - that ability to read price movement to the point where trading opportunities can be identified and acted upon. However, in this lies an important paradox, because it is these losses which prevent the majority of traders from getting to where they need to be, for no one likes to lose, life teaches us this, and these losses are personalized and allowed to sabotage our trading performance.

The secret to trading then, just perhaps, is not just learning to trade with momentum on your side or learning to identify when price is about to break out of its range, it is the ability to put on the next trade irrespective of the result of the last one, and to keep on doing it trade after trade. Few can do this. Few of us can truly accept the enormity of our own fallibility. We want to be special, to be the person that can see what others can't, to do something that actually can't be done, which is to master the markets, when in fact all we have to do ultimately is master ourselves as traders and learn to take advantage of the numerous opportunities the markets present us with.

It is so simple, and yet, it is perhaps the most difficult thing any of us have ever attempted to do.

I can't remember where I read it, but a quote that stuck in my mind was " to trade well, you have to become something you are not". This is so true.
0 traders viewing now