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The Swamp

  • #4,501
  • May 1, 2016 5:43am May 1, 2016 5:43am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} dono,, i assume china has bad news. i can't predict the future. think about what your asking. bad news dont mean bad news, it just less of expectation. it could be an improvement over previous months and be bad comparable to expectation. in a strong trend good or bad news (expectation) may keep a pair moving in the same direction. a strong trend is like the boj is easing and yen going against boj.. hint...
Export numbers out of China are pretty bad. They are not as bad as the first 3 months of this year. April was better but not much better and also down compared to last year. I do a lot of exports out of China America so I can usually tell whether or not things are bad before the market news reports because I get news from manufacturers and from shipping companies. China's numbers though depend on exports and demand from overseas. The numbers though only reflect on part of the actual numbers as many manufacturers now ship direct themselves and sell locally.
  • #4,502
  • May 1, 2016 7:30am May 1, 2016 7:30am
Quoting stylinex
{quote} Export numbers out of China are pretty bad. They are not as bad as the first 3 months of this year. April was better but not much better and also down compared to last year. I do a lot of exports out of China America so I can usually tell whether or not things are bad before the market news reports because I get news from manufacturers and from shipping companies. China's numbers though depend on exports and demand from overseas. The numbers though only reflect on part of the actual numbers as many manufacturers now ship direct themselves...
as long as copper use is flat or rising slower than those fake china #s reported. china is in decline. copper price can show this some, but it's not always factual like oil, is not. the usd getting weaker makes oil and copper rise. its gives people a false impression on use and demand. use and demand has to be separated too. china stockpiled copper for years at prices higher than today's. lots of china's exports are today being built with copper they paid 2.50 or more for.

the bs myth is china is going to switch to a domestic economy. the u.s. had one of those 40 years back.. how did that work for u.s. manufacturing against china? china was on a uptrend, what happens when the other asian countries will work even cheaper than the chinese? my bet is china has few commodities like japan. they live on a rock. rocks are nice, the world has lots of rocks. they dont need china's rocks. china has cheap labor going for it. the other cheaper asian labor is kicking china in the nuts.

i dont need any special info on china. i just look at copper. china has mt cities. it's just a matter of time before millions of farmers leave cities and go back to hand to mouth farming. just like the cheaper asian labor robbing china. those governments have the same lack of commodity problem. lack of commodities forces two ship rides.. one with commodities to china, then a second of finished product to western markets. a added cost the u.s. manufacturers does not have. europe has the same boat problem..
the greatest economic indicator has been around millions of years. "a mule that shits fast, dont shit long" (horse, zebra or whatever was shitting fast back then)
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #4,503
  • May 1, 2016 4:22pm May 1, 2016 4:22pm
gapzzz
  • #4,504
  • May 1, 2016 4:33pm May 1, 2016 4:33pm
Quoting edyraper
gapzzz
But so small ...
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #4,505
  • Edited 6:14pm May 1, 2016 6:04pm | Edited 6:14pm
Quoting gatorinla
yen trend is strong.. but a close above 106.65 may be a crack... i closed so clawing my way to renter on a bounce,, chart {image}
i may get a new chance to short 109.05+..h just closed above 106.65.. after a target like 106.33 a pair tends to be more exhausted or neutral. uj also closed near a new fresh low. many times it will bounce early in the next candle (week, month candle). 109.05 seems far away, but it's cheaper many times to wait for a better price. ej also in that large 121.93 norm area. it may be a good place to pay attention to yen for some retrace.. ej may be the better long. ej may raise eu 1.17xx test as well as uj to get to 109.05
Attached Image
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #4,506
  • Edited 6:34pm May 1, 2016 6:19pm | Edited 6:34pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} i may get a new chance to short 109.05+..h just closed above 106.65.. after a target like 106.33 a pair tends to be more exhausted or neutral. uj also closed near a new fresh low. many times it will bounce early in the next candle (week, month candle). 109.05 seems far away, but it's cheaper many times to wait for a better price. ej also in that large 121.93 norm area. it may be a good place to pay attention to yen for some retrace.. ej may be the better long. ej may raise eu 1.17xx test as well as uj to get to 109.05 {image}
btw ej also closed last h above 121.93.. its atm testing 121.93 from above. another one to look at is cad/jpy.. it has a inside norm at 84.57.. to target 93.20.. another inside norm at 83.35 for 95.63..brent oil going to 56 would help. catching a long scalp and setting b.e. may be the thing to do
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #4,507
  • May 1, 2016 7:04pm May 1, 2016 7:04pm
opened small short position top of the spike closed gap usdjpy, dont think it can breach 106.90. I think this point will be retested in any case
  • #4,508
  • May 1, 2016 7:39pm May 1, 2016 7:39pm
LONG
Attached Image
A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
  • #4,509
  • May 1, 2016 8:33pm May 1, 2016 8:33pm
Quoting ill_be_back
LONG {image}
with ya.. ej also
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #4,510
  • May 1, 2016 8:37pm May 1, 2016 8:37pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} with ya.. ej also
Me too EJ, GJ
A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
  • #4,511
  • May 1, 2016 9:18pm May 1, 2016 9:18pm
Makes sense why we saw huge YEN gains now. US put Japan among a few others on currency watch list
http://bloom.bg/1pPGzuh
  • #4,512
  • May 1, 2016 9:21pm May 1, 2016 9:21pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} i may get a new chance to short 109.05+..h just closed above 106.65.. after a target like 106.33 a pair tends to be more exhausted or neutral. uj also closed near a new fresh low. many times it will bounce early in the next candle (week, month candle). 109.05 seems far away, but it's cheaper many times to wait for a better price. ej also in that large 121.93 norm area. it may be a good place to pay attention to yen for some retrace.. ej may be the better long. ej may raise eu 1.17xx test as well as uj to get to 109.05 {image}
Media reporting further YEN gains now and further USD weakness
http://bloom.bg/1NeEJP4
  • #4,513
  • May 1, 2016 9:24pm May 1, 2016 9:24pm
Quoting ill_be_back
{quote} Me too EJ, GJ
Me too with UJ, target 106.9 then short? should be?
  • #4,514
  • May 1, 2016 9:42pm May 1, 2016 9:42pm
I think Japan has a 3 days holiday from May 3rd to the 5th where there is a Bank Holiday
  • #4,515
  • May 1, 2016 9:44pm May 1, 2016 9:44pm
Quoting elsensei13
{quote} Me too with UJ, target 106.9 then short? should be?
Target is Higher
Let see what happens
A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
  • #4,516
  • May 1, 2016 9:50pm May 1, 2016 9:50pm
let's see if they act or not this week.
http://bloom.bg/1W18LII
  • #4,517
  • May 1, 2016 10:23pm May 1, 2016 10:23pm
Quoting stylinex
Makes sense why we saw huge YEN gains now. US put Japan among a few others on currency watch list http://bloom.bg/1pPGzuh
thats funny.. the rembi is up for the year verse usd. its been rising since jan (meaning dropping on chart).. looking to long the usd/cnh after it bottoms.. month chart.. notice it lower, back to dec levels atm. china renbi is up on the year
Attached Image
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #4,518
  • Edited 10:46pm May 1, 2016 10:30pm | Edited 10:46pm
Quoting stylinex
{quote} Media reporting further YEN gains now and further USD weakness http://bloom.bg/1NeEJP4
i guess i will be wrong or them.. i didnt see a 106.33 target from any of these people you quote. until we were within a few hundred pips. i will be short later on a bounce. i am never sure about anything. i posted my reason for a possible bounce. the reason in this case for risking a few long positions. i can short again later in pursuit of 100.5 or 100.71 or 60.xx. if they are saying short, w/o saying it may bounce 250/300 pips before. it dont seem right..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #4,519
  • May 2, 2016 1:36am May 2, 2016 1:36am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} i guess i will be wrong or them.. i didnt see a 106.33 target from any of these people you quote. until we were within a few hundred pips. i will be short later on a bounce. i am never sure about anything. i posted my reason for a possible bounce. the reason in this case for risking a few long positions. i can short again later in pursuit of 100.5 or 100.71 or 60.xx. if they are saying short, w/o saying it may bounce 250/300 pips before. it dont seem right..
Labor day holiday in Taiwan today so markets are closed here. Might be quiet trading today. I believe Hong Kong and China are off too. They come back tomorrow but Japan starts a 3 day holiday tomorrow
  • #4,520
  • May 2, 2016 1:54am May 2, 2016 1:54am
Some levels are interesting today.

1.1373 is Daily S1, Weekly Pivot and Monthly Pivot
1.1452 is Daily mid R1 and also Weekly and Monthly Mid R1, daily low currently
1.1531 is Daily R2, Weekly R1 and very near to Monthly R1(1.1535)

We'll see how it will react to 1.1452. It is 1.1456 currently.
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