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The Big secret to trading success

  • #261
  • May 1, 2016 5:42am May 1, 2016 5:42am
Quoting HeyYou
{quote} Master, I'm talking about gathering statistical data to see which parameters are the most likely to give me an edge.
How would you know that you were not falling into the "Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy"...?

In other words: Can PAST statistical market data be applied to predict FUTURE market behaviour at all?

If yes, then all the big hedge funds and banks with the fastest Quantum computers, the best analytical software and with the world's best (and highest paid) PhD mathematicians and statisticians would be performing better than 30-50% per YEAR (i.e. 3-4% per month).

If that is the very best they can do, then what are the chances of a retail trader doing better with an "MT4 Optimizer" on a home PC...?
  • #262
  • May 1, 2016 5:47am May 1, 2016 5:47am
Quoting asgcorp
trading with the trend is a load of BS.


First, Any trend trader define the trend for me? Then the discussion can be proceeded that of how much use is this. Please don't advise me to go to babypips.com

Pick any 5 or 10 trend believers, Ask them for there views on current trend on any particular pair. You will get 5 to 10 different answers. They will involve 40%,60% , fibs blah blah blah. What the hell. Market don't know what a 40% or 60% is neither its to follow any particular percentage. Its the game of psychology, turning points, key levels and consolidations. Thats it.
Forex; the game of movements not the game of candles.
  • #263
  • May 1, 2016 5:59am May 1, 2016 5:59am
Quoting sajidkust
{quote} First, Any trend trader define the trend for me? Then the discussion can be proceeded that of how much use is this. Please don't advise me to go to babypips.com Pick any 5 or 10 trend believers, Ask them for there views on current trend on any particular pair. You will get 5 to 10 different answers. They will involve 40%,60% , fibs blah blah blah. What the hell. Market don't know what a 40% or 60%...
Trend trading not suitable for demo account holder........
Trade fearless not careless...
Syed Mohsin Ali Profit This Month: -762
  • #264
  • Edited 8:57am May 1, 2016 6:02am | Edited 8:57am
Quoting MasterGuru
{quote} How would you know that you were not falling into the "Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy"...? In other words: Can PAST statistical market data be applied to predict FUTURE market behaviour at all? If yes, then all the big hedge funds and banks with the fastest Quantum computers, the best analytical software and with the world's best (and highest paid) PhD mathematicians and statisticians would be performing better than 30-50% per YEAR (i.e. 3-4% per month). If that is the very best they can do, then what are the chances of a retail trader doing...


Simply because they're managing hundreds of millions. if you see that way, 3% of 100 millions = 3 millions / month, some even manage billions. They risk less and they avoid liquidity issues


But I don't want to start a Fundamental Analysis vs Technical Analysis vs Crazy Analysis etc. debate. Everyone sees it as he wants.
  • #265
  • May 1, 2016 6:04am May 1, 2016 6:04am
Quoting mohsinali
{quote} Trend trading not suitable for demo account holder........
Dear Mohsinali, I am not a billioniar trader like you but i do operate Multiple real accounts. In fact, also trading a six digit account for a charity organization in your's country. Stay happy.
Forex; the game of movements not the game of candles.
  • #266
  • Edited 7:17am May 1, 2016 6:07am | Edited 7:17am
Quoting HeyYou
{quote} Simply because they're managing hundreds of millions. if you see that way, 3% of 100 millions = 3 millions / month, some even manage billions. They risk less and they avoid liquidity issues But I don't want to start a Fundamental Analysis vs Technical Analysis vs Crazy Analysis etc. debate. anyone sees it as he wants.
You might be right. On the other hand, if MT4 Optimization worked, then there would at least 1 (i.e. one) strategy here on ForexFactory (or MyFxBook) which would be able to produce the same forward test profit curve as its optimized parameters showed in backtests. I am still about to see the first one.
  • #267
  • May 1, 2016 7:06am May 1, 2016 7:06am
Big secrets in trading i supposed...
Consistency....
Faith's
Discipline
...!...................:-X:-X:-X:-X:-X;-)
Trade fearless not careless...
Syed Mohsin Ali Profit This Month: -762
  • #268
  • May 1, 2016 7:11am May 1, 2016 7:11am
As far as trends is concerned....
For me i am looking for breakouts Daily ...
So i believe up and down trend on ether side.
Others people take it according to his plan..
Trade fearless not careless...
Syed Mohsin Ali Profit This Month: -762
  • #269
  • May 1, 2016 7:13am May 1, 2016 7:13am
Quoting sajidkust
{quote} First, Any trend trader define the trend for me? Then the discussion can be proceeded that of how much use is this. Please don't advise me to go to babypips.com Pick any 5 or 10 trend believers, Ask them for there views on current trend on any particular pair. You will get 5 to 10 different answers. They will involve 40%,60% , fibs blah blah blah. What the hell. Market don't know what a 40% or 60%...
Nice brother...
Trade fearless not careless...
Syed Mohsin Ali Profit This Month: -762
  • #270
  • May 1, 2016 7:54am May 1, 2016 7:54am
Quoting MasterGuru
{quote} You might be right. On the other hand, if MT4 Optimization worked, then there would at least 1 (i.e. one) strategy here on ForexFactory (or MyFxBook) which would be able to produce the same forward test profit curve as its optimized parameters showed in backtests. I am still about to see the first one.
In my humble opinion, you will never see this. As traders we are trading other traders, not price per se. That's just me. We are trading bulls and bears. A computer tries to model price, which is fine, but there are other things to consider as you well know. I am also in the backtesting is BS camp. If past analysis worked, we would not have a market.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #271
  • May 1, 2016 7:56am May 1, 2016 7:56am
Quoting MasterGuru
{quote} How would you know that you were not falling into the "Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy"...? In other words: Can PAST statistical market data be applied to predict FUTURE market behaviour at all? If yes, then all the big hedge funds and banks with the fastest Quantum computers, the best analytical software and with the world's best (and highest paid) PhD mathematicians and statisticians would be performing better than 30-50% per YEAR (i.e. 3-4% per month). If that is the very best they can do, then what are the chances of a retail trader doing...
No. The past has nothing to do with right now. You are dead on here in my view.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #272
  • May 1, 2016 8:33am May 1, 2016 8:33am
Quoting MasterGuru
{quote} How would you know that you were not falling into the "Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy"...? In other words: Can PAST statistical market data be applied to predict FUTURE market behaviour at all? If yes, then all the big hedge funds and banks with the fastest Quantum computers, the best analytical software and with the world's best (and highest paid) PhD mathematicians and statisticians would be performing better than 30-50% per YEAR (i.e. 3-4% per month). If that is the very best they can do, then what are the chances of a retail trader doing...
from my current state of knowledge!

every system can work great for a particular time, and fail in another particular time. No matter if price based or indicator based.
Itīs not the system, the past or the future.

It is simply the market rhythm, like watching a dancer a system should recognize is it a rumba, a samba, or a waltz. In case of the markets its a breakdance.

So optimization of a rumba robot is great for a short period of time when the market makes itīs rumba and can give you 100% win rate while loosing on another symbol which dances waltz. Itīs not the systems fault or a statistical fault itīs it is just "our" assumption the market will repeat repeat repeat its rhythm the whole time in that way and to the time we expect it to do.

Accept the market is dynamic and collecting statistical data is like riding a dead horse.

my 2 cents
just do it
  • #273
  • May 1, 2016 8:41am May 1, 2016 8:41am
Quoting HeyYou
{quote} A forward test shows what happened in the past just as a backtest does. Assuming that you're backtesting using real data, the difference is that those posting forward test results are willing to prove past performance to others.
Real data, as compared to the fake data?

Backtests=bullshit!

Check and compare.
Live stats vs the backtests on the same account/pairs/time/timeframe....
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #274
  • May 1, 2016 8:45am May 1, 2016 8:45am
Quoting MasterGuru
Can PAST statistical market data be applied to predict FUTURE market behaviour at all?
In the context of directional trading; Nope.

May I suggest a more suitable tool:
Attached Image

Quoting sajidkust
Any trend trader define the trend for me?
There is no definition of a trend. A 'trend' or 'range' are just subjective opinions formed from observing the difference between a recent price point and a past price point. With this is mind, it follows that nobody can define your opinion for you.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Dear oh dear. Its just startling that a few of you still have not come to terms with the nature of Market Speculation. Heres a quick primer:

1. You form an opinion on where you think price is heading.
2. You bet money.

It is worth noting that many speculators in the past have made tremendous amounts of money from trading trends and none of them suffer from the delusion of wanting to predict the future nor do they claim to be arbiters of truth.
  • #275
  • May 1, 2016 8:53am May 1, 2016 8:53am
Quoting Atokys
{quote} Dear oh dear.
Thank you sir for throwing the light on subject. Studying the big players via consolidations , key levels , larger TF candles always helped me to determine the flow. Those who follow some rules in market are winners and those who know when and where to break a certain rule are the champions.
Forex; the game of movements not the game of candles.
  • #276
  • May 1, 2016 8:58am May 1, 2016 8:58am
Quoting Magix
{quote} Real data, as compared to the fake data? Backtests=bullshit! Check and compare. Live stats vs the backtests on the same account/pairs/time/timeframe.... {image} {image}
Which one performs better ?
  • #277
  • May 1, 2016 8:59am May 1, 2016 8:59am
Quoting Magix
Backtests=bullshit!
Testing on historical data is indispensable and very useful if one operates with a good research methodology.

I observe that most traders operate with poor research methods that often lead to overfitting of past data.

I report that the flaw is not with backtesting but with the person performing the backtest.
  • #278
  • May 1, 2016 9:09am May 1, 2016 9:09am
Quoting HeyYou
{quote} Which one performs better ?
Uh...these were laid out in the order they appear on the myfxbook link.

All live performed better than the backtests, with exception of AUDUSD.
AUDUSD is currently reporting negative gains, while in the backtests it shows as closing the same period, positive.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #279
  • May 1, 2016 9:14am May 1, 2016 9:14am
Quoting Atokys
Testing on historical data is indispensable and very useful if one operates with a good research methodology.
This may be the case, but certainly not with MT4!
That's all I was stating.

Quoting Atokys
I report that the flaw is not with backtesting but with the person performing the backtest.
MT4, has a "Strategy Tester"
Meaning, if you check the charts during a BACKTEST, you can possibly gain some semblance of the logic being employed.
After that.
Totally fucking worthless from a Data Standpoint.

If you can show me any single backtest report from a meta4 terminal that matches, within a reasonable margin of error, live data, I will stand corrected.
(Minimum period - 1 Month).
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #280
  • May 1, 2016 9:21am May 1, 2016 9:21am
Quoting Magix
{quote} This may be the case, but certainly not with MT4! That's all I was stating. {quote} MT4, has a "Strategy Tester" Meaning, if you check the charts during a BACKTEST, you can possibly gain some semblance of the logic being employed. After that. Totally fucking worthless from a Data Standpoint. If you can show me any single backtest report from a meta4 terminal that matches, within a reasonable margin of error, live data, I will stand corrected. (Minimum period - 1 Month).
Well, that sounds... awful.
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