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Are there any successful Traders in Forex Factory?

  • #281
  • Apr 20, 2016 10:18am Apr 20, 2016 10:18am
Quoting Copernicus
{quote} Peter Brandt is one such example that shows exceptional performance from audited trading results. {image}
Copernicus, I went through some of your posts and found a lot of good stuff. Thank you for sharing!

Regarding the example that should proof "exeptional performance" by Peter L. Brandt, I hope you don't mind if I reflect on it and remain sceptical.
If it's from himself I think it is a very poor sample with little credibility just looking on how it's made.

Audited period it states 1981 - 2010, a period of 30 years
Below 14 winning years, 4 loosing years.....what about the missing 12 years? Cherry picked?

Average compound R.O.R . 41.6%
Probably he means CAGR.....but without listing the number of years it refers to it's a worthless metric.
There are other easy measures one can take to be able to state a high CAGR.... that's one reason the finance industry loves it... ;-)
Furthermore by choosing the point from which you state CAGR you can massively distort the real picture

Then it states: Each 1000 USD starting capital produced 319000 USD through 2010
1000 USD / CAGR 41.6 % / 29 years would grow to 24 034 458 USD?
1000 USD / CAGR 41.6 % / 18 years would grow to 523 767 USD?
..... so explain what he calculates here...I can't reproduce it.

Again, for the MAR and CALMAR values he needs to state the period to which he refers to, otherwise worthless.

Most important: If you talk about audited results you list your auditors name. If you do it seriously, you list a copy of a signed off auditors statement. Based on the reputation of the auditor, one could make a reasonable judgement and even verify with the auditor if it is faked or not.

So I really do not know much about Peter Brandt's CAGR over the last 35 years, but looking at his business modell on websites like elliottwave.com and peterlbrandt.com I see him on the same track as Larry Williams, Ed Seykota, Linda Bradford Raschke, Birger Schäfermeier, etc. etc. there is a lot more value in selling the dream. An Forex Brokers worldwide do have hudge marketing budgets they are willing to put to work on "trading legends" to lure in new retail suckers....
  • #282
  • Apr 20, 2016 10:26am Apr 20, 2016 10:26am
Quoting Ramadas
35% of Forex traders are profitable http://www.financemagnates.com/forex...-fall-profits/
that's a huge simplification bordering on stupidity ...
  • #283
  • Apr 20, 2016 10:37am Apr 20, 2016 10:37am
Quoting HudithePfupf
{quote} Copernicus, I went through some of your posts and found a lot of good stuff. Thank you for sharing! Regarding the example that should proof "exeptional performance" by Peter L. Brandt, I hope you don't mind if I reflect on it and remain sceptical. If it's from himself I think it is a very poor sample with little credibility just looking on how it's made. Audited period it states 1981 - 2010, a period of 30 years Below 14 winning years, 4 loosing years.....what about the missing 12 years? Cherry picked? Average compound R.O.R . 41.6% Probably...

I pretty much agree with that. NO one will sell any system if it's profitable.
  • #284
  • Apr 20, 2016 11:39am Apr 20, 2016 11:39am
Quoting Atokys
{quote} ....Please go read up on some basic literature for beginners if you are still confused. {quote}.
Atoky, ..... the adrealin seems to be pumping again through your veins.... it's funny and sad at once to see someone react like that.

You really behave like you grew up in the streets of a war torn country somewhere in South East Asia..... at least that would partially explain the lack of empathy in almost all of your posts. You sound like an angry young man in his twenties, not stupid, looking at your posts you might even be quite smart and probably have a higher degree in science or technology, but you sound like and I fear you are a narcist.

You might have landed a decent job but you are unchallanged and looking for more.... and since about half a year the forex industry addresses your desires. You read all the forex bibles out there and you hang on the lips of the market gurus and market wizards, as well as on those you consider to be experienced traders. Since your childhood was confined you are looking for the highest level of indepence without the need of interacting to much with people, because you hate most of them.

Oh my....how the forex brokers love people like you so keen to be like their trading idols by every fibre of their hearts.

Maybe life was hard on you, but there is no value in being arrogant and aggressiv in almost all of your posts. Looking at the topics you typically lurked around in FF it is obvious that you try to overcome the gap between what you have learned in your books and what you achieved so far applying your knowledge in the finanical markets.

However, if you have an engineering or a physics background, I think it is a terrible mistake to dedicate your energy to the field of finance, especially retail forex. Don't waste your time and talent to participate in an negative sum game....or bullying others. Maybe one day you'll remember these words and in hindsight you judge things different than you do today.

Thanks for mentioning Mingary....I looked through his posts and he seems to be a wise and decent person I can learn something from.
  • #285
  • Apr 20, 2016 12:04pm Apr 20, 2016 12:04pm
Quoting HudithePfupf
{quote} Thanks for mentioning Mingary....I looked through his posts and he seems to be a wise and decent person I can learn something from.
Ming may represent "our" fears, but he's far from being "wise". maybe one day
  • #286
  • Apr 20, 2016 12:15pm Apr 20, 2016 12:15pm
I can only speak for myself but the answer to your original question is a resounding yes. I am consistently
profitable and find it very easy to make at least 5% roc a week - minimum. This was after almost
20 years of losing consistently, so I guess the moral of the story is persistence pays.

Don't let the defeatists and failures drag you down. If you sincerely believe at a deep level that
you can do it and it is possible, then you will find a way or a way will find you, both one and the same
Really not that difficult once you 'get it'. Monitoring and maintaining a balanced emotional state
of mind and finding a high probability edge and consistently applying it is key.
  • #287
  • Apr 20, 2016 12:22pm Apr 20, 2016 12:22pm
Quoting toptrader8
I can only speak for myself but the answer to your original question is a resounding yes. I am consistently profitable and find it very easy to make at least 5% roc a week - minimum. This was after almost 20 years of losing consistently, so I guess the moral of the story is persistence pays. Don't let the defeatists and failures drag you down. If you sincerely believe at a deep level that you can do it and it is possible, then you will find a way or a way will find you, both one and the same Really not that difficult once you 'get it'. Monitoring...
Good advice friend.
When the going gets tough , the tough get going
  • #288
  • Apr 20, 2016 6:28pm Apr 20, 2016 6:28pm
Quoting HudithePfupf
{quote} Regarding the example that should proof "exeptional performance" by Peter L. Brandt, I hope you don't mind if I reflect on it and remain sceptical. If it's from himself I think it is a very poor sample with little credibility just looking on how it's made.
Hi Hud

Thanks for the response. I must admit that I do agree with you regarding the sloppy presentation of those results. In attempting to make a case that demonstrates a successful long term trader, it certainly doesn't tick the boxes.....however without a context or support to the numbers, it is impossible to make an informed determination. Maybe I have slipped into the mistake so many of us make regarding an 'appeal to authority', however what gives me some hope is the extent of vouches coming to Peter from some notable names of the professional trading community, some of whom have been directly mentored by him.

I actually appreciate the significant scepticism shown by some on this forum such as yourself and Mingary et al, as I align more with these views than the other side of the spectrum that is so prevalent on this forum, namely a blind faith mentality that flies in the face of empiricism. The heart of the debate should rest with long term independently audited and verified results, however the absence of this support material from the retail community makes it near impossible to make a definitive conclusion on this matter.

Where I depart 'slightly' from the ardent sceptical mindset (and the mindset of supporters of Efficient Market Hypothesis), is that in my opinion there is degree of alpha to be obtained from the markets....but far less than what most would think....hence my stance that leans towards the sceptics extremity of the spectrum. The 'biased' reductionist nature of the human mind and the mind's creations (bots) are not sufficiently equipped to deal with market complexity virtually guaranteeing that exploitable opportunities will be made available in the market from time to time.......but as an exception as opposed to a general rule.

The mere fact we do have audited returns from the professional fund managers (who do dabble in forex) that demonstrate a long track record that exceed market returns (beta), suggests that, if we trade like the pro's and are sufficiently capitalised, then it is possible to make above average returns.....but to achieve these results, demands that we treat this game in the same manner as the pro's.

I can't speak directly for Atokys, but I suspect he also has similar views given his post history. I can't help but have a good laugh from his cheeky exposition of blatant 'blind faith' and ignorance on this forum (in a similar manner to that achieved by Dawkins in divisive debates with theologians).

Anyway Hud, good to have you on board in this forum. I think we need your mind in here. :-)
  • #289
  • Apr 21, 2016 4:27am Apr 21, 2016 4:27am
Trading closed for the week, though this week gave a low return but good week overall, looking toward next week for a more profitable week.
  • #290
  • Apr 21, 2016 8:15am Apr 21, 2016 8:15am
Good evening Mr HudithePfupf,

Thank you for your indepth analysis into my person. Im sure that your family and peers are equally appreciative as I am of someone who thinks he knows everything about everyone's personal details. No retort can stand up to your piercing remarks. With this in mind, I shall now take this opportunity to complete my Internet Argument Progress Report™, if you dont mind.
Quoting HudithePfupf
Atoky, ..... the adrealin seems to be pumping again through your veins
- Accusation of posting while in an unsound mental state ☑
- Bonus point: Make the accusation to avoid an embarrassing mistake <confusing directional position trading with arbitrage>
Quote
it's funny and sad
- 'Funny yet sad' cliche ☑
Quote
You really behave like you grew up in the streets of a war torn country somewhere in South East Asia..... at least that would partially explain the lack of empathy in almost all of your posts. You sound like an angry young man in his twenties, not stupid, looking at your posts you might even be quite smart and probably have a higher degree in science or technology, but you sound like and I fear you are a narcist. You might have landed a decent job but you are unchallanged and looking for more.... and since about half a year the forex industry addresses your desires. You read all the forex bibles out there and you hang on the lips of the market gurus and market wizards, as well as on those you consider to be experienced traders. Since your childhood was confined you are looking for the highest level of indepence without the need of interacting to much with people, because you hate most of them.
- Obligatory presumptuous psychoanalysis ☑
Quote
Oh my....how the forex brokers love people like you so keen to be like their trading idols by every fibre of their hearts.
- Big bad Forex brokers! ☑
Quote
Maybe life was hard on you, but there is no value in being arrogant and aggressiv in almost all of your posts. Looking at the topics you typically lurked around in FF it is obvious that you try to overcome the gap between what you have learned in your books and what you achieved so far applying your knowledge in the finanical markets.
- More obligatory presumptuous psychoanalysis: Electric Boogaloo ☑
Quote
However, if you have an engineering or a physics background, I think it is a terrible mistake to dedicate your energy to the field of finance, especially retail forex. Don't waste your time and talent to participate in an negative sum game....or bullying others. Maybe one day you'll remember these words and in hindsight you judge things different than you do today.
Alright mom.
Quote
Thanks for mentioning Mingary....I looked through his posts and he seems to be a wise and decent person I can learn something from.
No problem mate, glad we're cool now.
  • #291
  • Apr 22, 2016 8:07am Apr 22, 2016 8:07am
Here in forex factory I think many of them are good traders. They are not just forum posters. They know trading sense try trading personally. I put my example that I am doing trading since many years . Now I am making good earning from this business. Others participants will also be doing good in forex.
  • #292
  • Apr 25, 2016 3:31am Apr 25, 2016 3:31am
Weekly updates of my trades.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 25-04-16.PNG Size: 93 KB
  • #293
  • Apr 30, 2016 12:32am Apr 30, 2016 12:32am
The week ends with a 12.6% profit, looking towards next week to be a more pipful week.
  • #294
  • Apr 30, 2016 1:36am Apr 30, 2016 1:36am
Quoting Enny
The week ends with a 12.6% profit, looking towards next week to be a more pipful week.
Demo = "successful trader"
  • #295
  • Apr 30, 2016 7:58am Apr 30, 2016 7:58am
Attached Image
  • #296
  • Apr 30, 2016 8:08am Apr 30, 2016 8:08am
Quoting seahorse
{image}
Its Demo Flying.
When the going gets tough , the tough get going
  • #297
  • Apr 30, 2016 9:02am Apr 30, 2016 9:02am
If someone is profitable, why he/she would go to the forum and talk about it?

Unless he/she wants attention and respect and is lonely...
Cut short your losses. Let your profits run on. David Ricardo (1772-1823)
  • #298
  • Apr 30, 2016 10:32am Apr 30, 2016 10:32am
Quoting Mingary
There are no long term successful spot retails forex traders there never has bee and there never will.
There could be back in the late 90s, before automated technologies made technical analysis statistically worthless, including assumptions about trends continuing previous motion or about crossing indicators giving any kind of edge.

These days if you study a distribution of profitable traders, you'd see it may be perfectly overlaid over a distribution with random outliers who are profitable because of pure survivorship bias. They got lucky, one in a million randomly picked a string of consecutive trades and grew his capital.
These luck streaks are very hard to continue over the years, that's why it's so absurdly hard to find a 5 years profitable, certified MyFXBook.
  • #299
  • Apr 30, 2016 10:36am Apr 30, 2016 10:36am
Quoting Copernicus
{quote} The main issue as I see it is in the definition of what constitutes successful. To achieve a long term 'absolute' return of over 20 or so years (with manageable drawdowns from active trade management) that is say double that which standard vanilla investment approaches may bring is a big deal in my opinion....... provided that the overall positive performance is consistent and not attributable to any particular year. It might not be a big deal for the retail traders in this FF community to pull average compound returns of 10+ % for say 20+...
Peter Brandt performance may be fully superimposed over the typical trend following strategy manager's. The last years, markets have come to be close to efficient, therefore the edge that trends provided in the past, has gone. That's why of the terrible top 30 trend following funds performance in the last years.
  • #300
  • Apr 30, 2016 10:51am Apr 30, 2016 10:51am
Quoting dfumagalli
{quote} There could be back in the late 90s, before automated technologies made technical analysis statistically worthless, including assumptions about trends continuing previous motion or about crossing indicators giving any kind of edge. These days if you study a distribution of profitable traders, you'd see it may be perfectly overlaid over a distribution with random outliers who are profitable because of pure survivorship bias. They got lucky, one in a million randomly picked a string of consecutive trades and grew his capital. These luck streaks...
I concur

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