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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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The Club!

  • #21,601
  • Apr 30, 2016 9:11am Apr 30, 2016 9:11am
Quoting chess king
{quote} 100 ..doubble top ?
lol ... maybe

Well, in the future level 100 should be re-tested it seem and might go even higher,
but for now we have this:

Quoting andexQ
{quote} more or less.. 88 kinda like a limit for down-move from current perspective but for the lowest possible level actually along blue-TL, however firstly we might want to see what could happen within 90 - 91 area, from there it has 2 option: 1) go up to 95/96 again 2) go down to around 88 or lower Let's wait & see which one is..
  • #21,602
  • Apr 30, 2016 9:31am Apr 30, 2016 9:31am
Quoting chess king
{quote} 100 ..doubble top ? correction down to 85xx It was the target..
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  • #21,603
  • Apr 30, 2016 9:47am Apr 30, 2016 9:47am
To avoid confusion i merge 2 of my previous posts regarding USD, here:

Monthly chart,
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88 kinda like a limit for down-move from current perspective but for the lowest possible level actually along blue-TL,
however firstly we might want to see what could happen within 90 - 91 area, from there it has 2 option:

1) go up to 95/96 again
2) go down to around 88 or lower

Let's wait & see which one is..
  • #21,604
  • Apr 30, 2016 10:04am Apr 30, 2016 10:04am
Quoting andexQ
To avoid confusion i merge 2 of my previous posts regarding USD, here: Monthly chart, {image} 88 kinda like a limit for down-move from current perspective but for the lowest possible level actually along blue-TL, however firstly we might want to see what could happen within 90 - 91 area, from there it has 2 option: 1) go up to 95/96 again 2) go down to around 88 or lower Let's wait & see which one is..

everything clear thank you..
.also did not want to create confusion ..
I like your chart.
  • #21,605
  • Apr 30, 2016 10:11am Apr 30, 2016 10:11am
Quoting chess king
{quote} everything clear thank you.. .also did not want to create confusion .. I like your chart.
Thanks
  • #21,606
  • Apr 30, 2016 10:48am Apr 30, 2016 10:48am
if someone needs information here has a lot of...

https://www.reddit.com/r/Forex/comme...beginners_and/
  • #21,607
  • Apr 30, 2016 2:03pm Apr 30, 2016 2:03pm
DXY

most probable we are in a wave 4 correction

this wave 4 looks like a regular flat correction. Thus the ongoing wave C is expected to terminate slightly below the end of the wave A. The 92 would be fine for me.

Also keep in mind: wave 4's rarely do retrace more than 50% of the wave 3.

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  • #21,608
  • Apr 30, 2016 2:08pm Apr 30, 2016 2:08pm
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  • #21,609
  • Apr 30, 2016 3:08pm Apr 30, 2016 3:08pm
Starting Monday, Interactive Brokers Will Charge You 0.25% On Yen Cash Balances

  • #21,610
  • Apr 30, 2016 6:21pm Apr 30, 2016 6:21pm
Quoting infinitus
Haven't seen us being engaged in a pub brawl for a long time
Markus...

I'd be willing to bet money, marbles or chalk we've rarely seen the opposite side of trades, so one time scuffle was just based on market observation.

Most specifically, mine vs what you seen as published material...

Never an ounce of love lost, on my side.


Come down to it, I'd not want to enter an arena of knowledge with you...but that arena on techs=hells yeah!


The tools we choose and the battles we have, will never be the same.
But isn't this what makes the market, market?

Really, if we all had the same buy/sell points...the market would cease to exist.

All we really have is our own perspective and market thresholds.

And in that, we will always be brothers.

As for:
Quoting infinitus
Have to take a look what forums you are roaming.......
Having been a technician for the grandest part of my life, I have always worked to question the general logic. In itself, you have to realize a lot of parameters, but still look for the exceptions.

Do not put that fork in an electrical socket!
This, I can easily accept.

As for the rest, it has been my quest to not only question the "Do's and Don'ts", but to learn from them.
After that, I challenge all others to the same.

It really boils down to not just knowing the rules, but why they are the rules.
And, if others don't quite get it, I will nail their fucking feet to the floor until they do!

As a student.
As a teacher.
I believe...
If we don't understand the why, we will never appreciate the how.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #21,611
  • May 1, 2016 12:15am May 1, 2016 12:15am
Quoting Magix
{quote} Markus... I'd be willing to bet money, marbles or chalk we've rarely seen the opposite side of trades, so one time scuffle was just based on market observation. Most specifically, mine vs what you seen as published material... Never an ounce of love lost, on my side. Come down to it, I'd not want to enter an arena of knowledge with you...but that arena on techs=hells yeah! The tools we choose and the battles we have, will never be the same. But isn't this what makes the market, market? Really, if we all had the same buy/sell points...the...

Magix,

woah, epic posting. Thank you very much for writing it. Really appreciate it.

Do not know where to start with. Maybe this




It really boils down to not just knowing the rules, but why they are the rules. And, if others don't quite get it, I will nail their fucking feet to the floor until they do! As a student. As a teacher. I believe... If we don't understand the why, we will never appreciate the how

Love it!!!

I am just reading into your thread

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=577929


very interesting. Hope your great EA's will be profitable forever
  • #21,612
  • May 2, 2016 1:14am May 2, 2016 1:14am
Quoting chess king
if someone needs information here has a lot of... https://www.reddit.com/r/Forex/comme...beginners_and/
cool .. enjoy reading
  • #21,613
  • May 2, 2016 6:07am May 2, 2016 6:07am
Greanpeace TTIP leak

all documents

http://www.ttip-leaks.org/



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  • #21,614
  • May 2, 2016 6:43am May 2, 2016 6:43am
Quoting chess king
{quote} everything clear thank you.. .also did not want to create confusion .. I like your chart.
Option of 1000 millions at 1,15 that ens up at the same time that Dragui's speech and US PMI. Few chances to break this area before.
  • #21,615
  • May 2, 2016 4:31pm May 2, 2016 4:31pm
Quoting Lavanda
{quote} Option of 1000 millions at 1,15 that ens up at the same time that Dragui's speech and US PMI. Few chances to break this area before.
HI LAVANDA..

possibly 1370 / 9x be tested before large gains north...

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  • #21,616
  • May 2, 2016 7:34pm May 2, 2016 7:34pm
be careful..

Quoting andexQ
{quote} Great explanation... thanks my friend. I did in depth analysis to asses current situation and eventually came up to conclusion that high probability this time EU will cross 1.15 not to back down again... will looking for confirmation within 1.13 - 1.15 area. ADDED: This is medium to long-term view.
  • #21,617
  • May 3, 2016 2:51am May 3, 2016 2:51am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} following is the SWFX volume of EU the distribution shows all the volume since the 1.399 high as you can see, we are running to the upper boundary of the recent distribution. Between 1650 and 1750 we can see a no-business-zone weekly and monthly Murrey Math are open for the 1719 daily MM would call for a healthy downside correction first. 1475 or 1597 extended may be a good turning point 4h MM, in my view, would call for a downside move between 1475 and 1536 {image}
Going straight ahead to 15.97!!!!
  • #21,618
  • May 6, 2016 4:45am May 6, 2016 4:45am
It is so interesting to see supposed investors talking about oil prices with terms like supply and demand just to be creamed by events like McMurray, which has resulted in a decrease of 20% in the Canadian oil production, and unrest in Libya, which has also resulted in severely decreased Libyan oil output, but all this upheaval has not resulted in any spike not even increase in the oil price. In fact it dropped. So much for supply and demand...
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #21,619
  • May 7, 2016 3:33am May 7, 2016 3:33am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} following is the SWFX volume of EU the distribution shows all the volume since the 1.399 high as you can see, we are running to the upper boundary of the recent distribution. Between 1650 and 1750 we can see a no-business-zone weekly and monthly Murrey Math are open for the 1719 daily MM would call for a healthy downside correction first. 1475 or 1597 extended may be a good turning point 4h MM, in my view, would call for a downside move between 1475 and 1536 {image}
Interesting the point of view of Murrey Math. Some shorts at 15,97. Close them. What is interesting for me is if Murrey Math can give us hints of the direction. You spoke about a healthy correction. Can Murrey Math give us hints about this now? Has the distribution and volumes change this week?

Maldonado fails like nearly always

http://clubdecapitales.com/elliottwa...reo-al-conteo/

The dxy regrets more or less at the place you said, but as you stated, rarely will come back over 96'00 isnt' it?
  • #21,620
  • May 7, 2016 4:40am May 7, 2016 4:40am
Quoting Lavanda
{quote} Interesting the point of view of Murrey Math. Some shorts at 15,97. Close them. What is interesting for me is if Murrey Math can give us hints of the direction. You spoke about a healthy correction. Can Murrey Math give us hints about this now? Has the distribution and volumes change this week? Maldonado fails like nearly always http://clubdecapitales.com/elliottwa...reo-al-conteo/ The dxy regrets more or less at the place you said, but as you stated, rarely will come back over 96'00 isnt' it?

Hi Lavanda,

I am in the mountains for a few days. So I do not have access to the volume distributions. Maybe on Monday.

Yes, Murrey can give us hints about the direction, especially well in ranging markets. One has to analyze it on MTF setup.

a) there are certain octave lines wich are more prone to target than otheres

b) one have to take the overrun octave lines into consideration. The more octave lines have been breached without meaningful correction, the higher the chance that price will correct. In my view, a meaningful correction is at least two octave lines deep, better three.

When price had run, e.g. 8 octave lines in one go, chance is extremely high for a correction. The octaves 0/8, 4/8 and 8/8 do set up a nice framework. These are the strongest S/R lines.

When looking at the recent daily and 4h Murrey Math:

4h:

lower target may be 1325 or 1219 extended

but 1h Murrey Math may limit it to 1322

1475 on the upper side may also attract


daily:

1230 on the lower side may attract, with 1719 on the upper side.


weekly:

1719 on the upper side, extension to 1963 (keep in mind: from EW perspective I do not see the upper targets at the moment)

1231 as 4/8 magnet
0742 as 0/8


monthly:

4/8 is 1719, which has been literally tested 2 times now (second attempt may be ongoing). 5/8 line at 2207

lower side target at 2/8 with 0742, and big target 0976


Regarding volume and its distribution:

I think volume was on the light side the last week. So I chance is high, that the distribution has not changed much.


Regarding Maldonados count:

to be fair, the count looked reasonable. And his upper target was nearly met.

Although I do not know, if the count overall is right or wrong, because the whole move up since the 1.05x low is a mess to count.


I think, we have a little chance to test the 1719. If that occurs, watch out for the SP500 to target new highs. Some Elliotticans have proposed, that the SP500 is now in a wave 4 correction down, and may soon deliver new highs above 2100.


Regarding COT data:

when looking at EU, DX, Gold and Oil, one could conclude that the bottom is in for DX, as well as the top might be in for EU, Gold and Oil


Looking at sentiment data, the crowd is still fairly bearish on the DX, which is a very good sign for further bullish approaches.


Have a nice weekend my friends,


Markus
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