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The Big secret to trading success

  • #221
  • Apr 30, 2016 2:32am Apr 30, 2016 2:32am
Quoting MasterGuru
{quote} Costly... Yes. And even deadly... Just how many gamblers, gambler-traders have lost their wealth, health, family and even life due to their belief that they can "make it" in spite of the odds... And trading-gambling is even more dangerous than a classical "gambling addiction", as trading might be called "investing", and so socially it is more acceptable, more tolerated or "overlooked". Until it is too late. A good trader friend of mine has just commited suicide this week due to major Forex losses... So it can be very...
Very true ! IF and UNTIL you have a real edge and you are able to trade it profitably, it's just pure gambling. Even then you can never know what the ever changing future holds.
  • #222
  • Apr 30, 2016 3:40am Apr 30, 2016 3:40am
Quoting skyway
{quote} The loss is more than just money ! His entire life is on the line and he loss !
So you mean that if he had won the lottery instead he still would have killed himself?
  • #223
  • Apr 30, 2016 4:01am Apr 30, 2016 4:01am
Quoting jen101
{quote} So you mean that if he had won the lottery instead he still would have killed himself?
Lottery is a different thing altogether. He believe in trading as a legitimate profession, diligent with the hard work, was successful and for whatever the reason loss it all. There are a plenty of cases like that although we don't hear about them.
  • #224
  • Apr 30, 2016 4:24am Apr 30, 2016 4:24am
Quoting skyway
{quote} Lottery is a different thing altogether. He believe in trading as a legitimate profession, diligent with the hard work, was successful and for whatever the reason loss it all. There are a plenty of cases like that although we don't hear about them.
Ok, but I just don't get it.
  • #225
  • Apr 30, 2016 4:27am Apr 30, 2016 4:27am
I dont wanna say big words, but I suppose I wouldnt commit a suicide because of forex losses. However, I could certainly damage my health because of stress. Our lives are much more important than all the money in the world. Forex is some usless shit if we cannot keep our health. Money is lost and made in everything. Today you make, tomorrow lose and then you make some more, but only if you survive for the next time. I present my condolences for your friend. I have also heard a similar case for a friend of a friend that lost 300k eur in a blink ( wasnt eurchf i suppose ). But we know this from some point, dont we.. no guarantees for a consistent, sustainable income and be a millionaire for the rest of your life. You can use and lose all your wealth and your life in every business, especially trading.. I think there is lesson to learn here. Always put yourself and your family before your trading works.
  • #226
  • Apr 30, 2016 4:40am Apr 30, 2016 4:40am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} My last ex wife and I are actually friends today. The bitter irony is, as you said, you do remember the people who doubted you. It's true that winning solves almost everything. But now I have become much more reclusive. I live a normal life but I don't talk to many outsiders. I understand why there is little support now, however. I think it is pretty much the same as if some scrawny kid has decided he wants to be the next UFC champion. He get laughed at just before he disappears to get to work. When he is seen again, his friends do...
I can totally relate to this. Most people I know don't actually know what it is I do, and I prefer it that way. If people ask, which of course they do, I dismiss it with the usual reply which is " oh just boring financial stuff ", which usually ends it there. Only if people press me do I elaborate.
  • #227
  • Apr 30, 2016 4:50am Apr 30, 2016 4:50am
Quoting cuchuflito
The Big Boys know the secret, they can see all the orders, legally, and ran the stops of the retailers , systematically ...theres no secret... The game is rigged...first rule...understand that, and maybe you might be able to work a system around it... Dont expect any mercy from your broker...it will make you sick...literally...
This is the biggest fallacy that people peddle on this forum, and you will inevitably find that this point of view comes from the losers who seek to find a cause. The game is not ' rigged ', neither is your broker out to get you. People lose money due to their own incompetence, and that is the one and only bottom line.

I can't tell you how I pissed off I get when I see people in all their self-appointed wisdom trying to divert the reasons for their own failures onto this ' the game is rigged ' crutch. Believe me, this is bullshit, Learn the business inside out and you'll make money. Put your money on the line before you know what you're doing, and you'll lose it. It's that simple.
  • #228
  • Apr 30, 2016 5:02am Apr 30, 2016 5:02am
from what i have read so far, this is the place where are the most succesfull traders (long term ones - the ones that found some kind of edge )
im looking forward to see / learn some new things from you, but so far i see the "usual" stuff (trend, s/r, mm...etc)....it seems that is a piece missing
  • #229
  • Apr 30, 2016 5:19am Apr 30, 2016 5:19am
Quoting cat
{quote} This is the biggest fallacy that people peddle on this forum, and you will inevitably find that this point of view comes from the losers who seek to find a cause. The game is not ' rigged ', neither is your broker out to get you. People lose money due to their own incompetence, and that is the one and only bottom line. I can't tell you how I pissed off I get when I see people in all their self-appointed wisdom trying to divert the reasons for their own failures onto this ' the game is rigged ' crutch. Believe me, this is bullshit, Learn...
It's really not as difficult as many make out. They say you need an edge - true, but that is the same in any business; edge, niche, inefficiency... it's all the same. Find an opportunity and exploit it to the fullest. It may be one pattern on one pair. So, when you see it, you just know what will happen next, that sort of thing...
  • #230
  • Apr 30, 2016 5:21am Apr 30, 2016 5:21am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Now this is what I will never understand. My entire losses over ten years of learning was about 6k. I have never blown an account. If one cannot make money trading pennies, why would one move on to trading lots? That has never made sense to me.
I couldn't agree more with this, and it's another misguided fallacy here on ff, that it's somehow part of the learning curve to blow accounts. It's not - blowing accounts will destroy your morale, terminate your trading career through lack of funds, and make it very difficult if not impossible to get back on track.

Provided you keep your risk low, ie, 0.5 to 2% of your account size depending on your proficiency, you should never have to blow an account. Accounts are blown by traders who risk too much per trade, have no money management rules in place, or who are not disciplined enough to obey them if they do have them.
  • #231
  • Apr 30, 2016 5:43am Apr 30, 2016 5:43am
Quoting bradu
from what i have read so far, this is the place where are the most succesfull traders (long term ones - the ones that found some kind of edge ) im looking forward to see / learn some new things from you, but so far i see the "usual" stuff (trend, s/r, mm...etc)....it seems that is a piece missing
What piece do you feel is missing? Of course, we can never provide a holy grail, like some easily identifiable entry and exit system which is guaranteed to bring results, because no such thing exists. Even if I divulged here on this thread my exact system, with all my indicators fully explained, it would not help people much because it has evolved as I have as a trader over many years. It's not a system which will bring success, it is having a full acquaintance with the market, a know-how that can only come through empiricism and involvement, taking you eventually to a level whereby it's not just the opportunities you see, it's what's going on around them...the S &R levels, the market participation, order flow, volume, etc, because each and every day the market wears a new set of clothes, and things will never be exactly the same as the day before. Learning to adjust to these constant permutations, and tune oneself in to the constant ebb and flow of price movement takes time and can only be achieved by experience.

Having said that, I do believe that ones path to success can be shortened by knowing what to look for and by taking advice from other, more experienced traders. Such is the reason for this thread, and I at least, will be continuing to post little snippets of information, such as charts etc, based upon what I have so far learnt. I think this is all one can really do.
  • #232
  • Apr 30, 2016 5:45am Apr 30, 2016 5:45am
Quoting cat
{quote} Learn the business inside out and you'll make money. Put your money on the line before you know what you're doing, and you'll lose it. It's that simple.
I cannot agree more with this and I for one like 'simple'. Blaming the so called big boys for ones incompetence is not going to resolve any issues folks may have. Big boys lose big time also, they just pick themselves up and get on with it. Besides which there is nothing stopping us from not trading, we have to accept the responsibility for doing so and if one cannot do that then I would suggest a more irresponsible career change.

I personally know quite a few traders who have spent what others would deem a small fortune just trying to learn this business but the one thing they never seem to understand is their trade can fail and all the wishing in the world will not turn the market back in their favor. Sure there is more to it than just understanding the basic concepts and structures of price, of money management and of self management. We also need the desire, the stamina, the passion because if we just did this for the money we would not fair nearly so well.

This is not rocket science but rather rocket science on steroids if one starts to let emotions drive their trades. We cannot 'think' trades we simple plot and take our best shot and like the boy scouts be prepared for the worse. I know I would be making a terrible mistakes to even think all my trades are going to win and in my opinion it is what one does when confronted with loss that far outweighs just about anything else we can conjure up.

Consider the loss, accept the risk, press the button and that is all there is to the mechanical aspects, what is in ones head controls the rest. That head needs to be calm, not angry. In control of the situation by not entering into irrational thinking. Able to see the plan working or failing and act in accordance.

Why people get all hot and bothered about trading is counter productive, hey its only money
  • #233
  • Apr 30, 2016 6:14am Apr 30, 2016 6:14am
Quoting alphaomega
{quote} It's not a matter of right or wrong! It's a matter of FACTS! And the facts clearly show that over 95% of traders lose all of their money in the long run. The more they trade - the more they lose! And here are the other facts: The large majority of traders use some form of technical trend following system usually with fixed rules, fixed stop, and even fixed targets (because this is the "right" way to trade). After all, almost everyone is preaching the same nonsense .....all the books and the gurus tell you to follow the trend, to cut your...

People might take a pop at you but you are so correct, the market is rigged. It is a fact the people are manipulated on a daily basis. How many times have traders here sold a fib retracement because you get a spike candle, then you put your stop on the top, come back to see the market has come back and just stopped you out, then fallen, why did it come back? It came back to take your stop and 100's of other traders that did the same as you.

The trend is your friend yes it is but in hind sight it is so much clearer, take the example of the gbpjpy this was in a downtrend since May 2015, however it managed a 1000 point retrace from the 3rd April which lasted 4 weeks, which way is the trend? Up down, trading in the trend pays off, but that all has a caveat, what is the trend, the answer to that depends on the time frame you are trading, and the size of moves you are after.

It is not as simple as running with the trend, anyone that says it is is just quoting past market wisetales, firstly determine how you want to trade, this I realise is so important, I like to make money every day, I cannot sit through trend moves watching my account go up and down. So for me short term trading suits me fine, trades from a day to 3 days are perfect.

The trend you are looking at will depend on the way you want to trade, a scalper does not give a rats arse about the trend as he is only after 2 or 10 pips. If you are a swing trader looking to hold a move then you had better be in the daily trend or even better a weekly. Where you buy or sell in that trend will be dictated by the length of time you expect to hold the move. Trend on its own is useless, its like having a hammer, a great tool unless you want to paint something with it. You have to know how to use the trend otherwise you are lost.
  • #234
  • Apr 30, 2016 6:48am Apr 30, 2016 6:48am
the secret is not trading with the trend.. that is just another technical analysis fallacy. there are 3 basic methods of entry breakout pullback and fade. all can be made profitable if worked on enough, id venture to say the real key is risk management, everyone on this forum seems to think risking 1% of their account on a single trade is okay. You know why no one succeeds? Its because they risk 1%+ on a trade. show me someone who risks 0.1% on a trade, you will find none but only professional traders or people with large money, people who deserve to be trading or managing a portfolio. risking fractions of a percent is more realistic in the long term and many will never come to accept because they look at the money and not the trading itself. I don't know how many time I have to say but its not the system that really matters, you can take a random entry and still be profitable whether it be with trend or not. the key is risk management , risk risk risk. What is your risk return?
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #235
  • Apr 30, 2016 6:49am Apr 30, 2016 6:49am
Quoting bradu
from what i have read so far, this is the place where are the most succesfull traders (long term ones - the ones that found some kind of edge ) im looking forward to see / learn some new things from you, but so far i see the "usual" stuff (trend, s/r, mm...etc)....it seems that is a piece missing
You are right that all the usual PA stuff is the key and yes there is more. Look at it objectively; not everything can work on anything all of the time. So, your job is to whittle it down to what, where and when. A tip: if you have what you consider as a pretty robust system, then just run it on many pairs for a number of months and with lots of trades. It is most likely your account (demo, hopefully) will be negative. Not to worry. Hook it up onto myfxbook and look at the stats. Look at the summary - is there 1 pair or 2 that are performing well? Seeing any patterns? What about the timing? Which hours work best? Days? That could be your answer.
  • #236
  • Edited 8:04am Apr 30, 2016 6:55am | Edited 8:04am
Quoting cat
{quote} What piece do you feel is missing? Of course, we can never provide a holy grail, like some easily identifiable entry and exit system which is guaranteed to bring results, because no such thing exists. Even if I divulged here on this thread my exact system, with all my indicators fully explained, it would not help people much because it has evolved as I have as a trader over many years. It's not a system which will bring success, it is having a full acquaintance with the market, a know-how that can only come through empiricism and involvement,...
I would like to repeat what "Cat" has stated, as it is one of the MAJOR WISDOMS of trading:

"Each and every day the market wears a new set of clothes, and things will never be exactly the same as the day before. Learning to adjust to these constant permutations, and tune oneself in to the constant ebb and flow of price movement takes time and can only be achieved by experience."
  • #237
  • Apr 30, 2016 7:03am Apr 30, 2016 7:03am
Quoting Hurst
{quote} People might take a pop at you but you are so correct, the market is rigged.t.
But Alphaomega who you quote, claims that in the long run, nearly everybody loses, in fact, he states that the longer you trade, the more you are likely to lose. So where is this person actually coming from? and why should anyone here pay any attention to him?

I ask this because by saying what he has said, he has trapped himself into a contradiction from which it is impossible to escape. If he is correct, and ultimately we are all pretty much doomed to fail sooner or later, then in order for him to know this, he must already have failed, and who here wants to take any advice from a failed trader?

If on the other hand, he is one of the rare breed, the 5% who have broken through into the eternal sunset of immortal success, then he demonstrates extreme arrogance to claim that although he has achieved it, others will not. The contradiction in his argument goes further, because using his logic, the more we trade, and the more we realize success, the closer we come to failure, which means that he too will fail. Again, why should anyone here listen to someone who has either failed, or is doomed to fail.

You do see my logic I hope. So I maintain. The markets are not rigged, your broker is not continually hunting your stops, and you will, provided you put in the work required, achieve success if you are fully committed to doing so, and once you have, you will only continue to improve and increase your account size until the day you quit trading.
  • #238
  • Apr 30, 2016 7:25am Apr 30, 2016 7:25am
Market exists on the principle of loss and gain.If one person is winning it means other one has lost the trade because he has got loser's money.It is not possible that there could be all the winners or losers.If there are all the winners then market would not exit and ultimately collapse.Only smarters survive in the market.There is rule in trading that you must not invest what you could not afford to lose.Always follow this rule
  • #239
  • Apr 30, 2016 7:58am Apr 30, 2016 7:58am
Quoting maaRIF2015
Market exists on the principle of loss and gain.If one person is winning it means other one has lost the trade because he has got loser's money.It is not possible that there could be all the winners or losers.If there are all the winners then market would not exit and ultimately collapse.Only smarters survive in the market.There is rule in trading that you must not invest what you could not afford to lose.Always follow this rule
You have to think bigger than this. You are imagining a counterparty that is on your timeframe, using your chart style, in your timezone, using your money management. The truth is that there are an infinite number of traders trading different timeframes, different styles of charts, using different money management, in different timezones.

Yes, bulls and bears can be exiting at the same time, both making money.

Quoting cat
{quote} But Alphaomega who you quote, claims that in the long run, nearly everybody loses, in fact, he states that the longer you trade, the more you are likely to lose. So where is this person actually coming from? and why should anyone here pay any attention to him? I ask this because by saying what he has said, he has trapped himself into a contradiction from which it is impossible to escape. If he is correct, and ultimately we are all pretty much doomed to fail sooner or later, then in order for him to know this, he must already have failed,...
Indeed. It is silly for a retail trader to think stops are being hunted for their 100 bucks. You mentioned earlier that posting snippets of learning experience is the purpose of the thread. My snippet on stops is that they should not be put in the market at all except for the disaster stop. And then, you should trade based on your disaster stop, not on your analysis stop. In other words, if you are willing to risk a certain percentage of your account per trade, that risk should be based on the disaster stop. That's just me, I am very conservative.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #240
  • Apr 30, 2016 8:30am Apr 30, 2016 8:30am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Indeed. It is silly for a retail trader to think stops are being hunted for their 100 bucks. You mentioned earlier that posting snippets of learning experience is the purpose of the thread. My snippet on stops is that they should not be put in the market at all except for the disaster stop. And then, you should trade based on your disaster stop, not on your analysis stop. In other words, if you are willing to risk a certain percentage of your account per trade, that risk should be based on the disaster stop. That's just me, I am very conservative....
When I was trading directly off a live account, I had so many trades taken out on the tips of spikes and beyond. It was getting ridiculous, at a rate of nearly half and yes, I did tot them up. So, I now trade off a demo and copy to live without the SL and TP and guess what, I don't remember ever seeing my SL hit on a tip of a spike anymore... Well, I have also tried and changed brokers many times and I think I now have a decent broker but I guess there will always be trust issues...
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