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Jay's High Probability Setups

  • #241
  • Apr 28, 2016 5:27pm Apr 28, 2016 5:27pm
Updates & View going forward:

* EURUSD: I still believe that a large bullish move is being prepared. I've been buying on every dip. A re-visit of 1.1220 is not out of the picture, but I wouldn't bet on it. If it does happen though, I will be glad to add even more longs. First target remains 1.1511, to be followed be a larger move to the upside (to be re-evaluated once 1.1511 is reached)

* USDJPY: As I mentioned few days ago, USDJPY is heading south, and every move to the upside (all the way up to 112.80) is a selling opportunity. The bullish run on Friday was a 'gift' to whoever wanted a good entry point
Initial target remains 107.50

* AUDJPY: Still holding my shorts (not adding to them though). I've been holding for a very long period now, and I've mentioned before, if it wasn't to the huge profits I had running in UJ, I would have let go of this trade. Will keep on holding for the time being.

* USDCHF: Still holding shorts. The bearish trend ain't over yet. We will be seeing lows below 0.9495 quite soon.
  • #242
  • Apr 29, 2016 1:58am Apr 29, 2016 1:58am
Quoting FX-Jay
I started shorting USDJPY, I'll keep on adding to my short position on any upward move (all the way up to 112.80 - if we'll see it) Targeting 107.50 as a 1st step
Thank you Jay
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYH1-29-04-16.png Size: 30 KB
  • #243
  • Apr 29, 2016 2:04am Apr 29, 2016 2:04am
And Gold, under my own analysis of TZ and Prob with a twist :nerd:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUUSDH1-29-04-16.png Size: 36 KB
  • #244
  • Apr 29, 2016 3:10pm Apr 29, 2016 3:10pm
Quoting FX-Jay
Updates & View going forward: * EURUSD: I still believe that a large bullish move is being prepared. I've been buying on every dip. A re-visit of 1.1220 is not out of the picture, but I wouldn't bet on it. If it does happen though, I will be glad to add even more longs. First target remains 1.1511, to be followed be a larger move to the upside (to be re-evaluated once 1.1511 is reached) * USDJPY: As I mentioned few days ago, USDJPY is heading south, and every move to the...
* EURUSD: Just 60 more pips to go & we'll be at 1.1511 Next target is 1.1635

* USDJPY: Done! 107.50 is now long gone. Trend remains downward, but I'll stay out for the time being & maybe enter later at higher prices if the market gives them.

* AUDJPY: Down 600 pips from highs, another 200 won't be a problem

* USDCHF: Still holding shorts. This week's bearish move was just the beginning
  • #245
  • Apr 30, 2016 2:54am Apr 30, 2016 2:54am
Hello Jay, being following your thread and must admit your predictions are TOP notch. Don't you think that we could have a retrace in eur/usd maybe to 1.1350 before going higher?

Anyway, good luck and keep sharing with us your great work.
  • #246
  • Apr 30, 2016 12:54pm Apr 30, 2016 12:54pm
Quoting FX-Jay
{quote} * EURUSD: Just 60 more pips to go & we'll be at 1.1511 Next target is 1.1635 * USDJPY: Done! 107.50 is now long gone. Trend remains downward, but I'll stay out for the time being & maybe enter later at higher prices if the market gives them. * AUDJPY: Down 600 pips from highs, another 200 won't be a problem * USDCHF: Still holding shorts. This week's bearish move was just the beginning
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: tooslow2.png Size: 39 KB


EURUSD there was an up spike to 1.1712 August 2015.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: TooSlow.png Size: 34 KB


USDJPY there was a down spike to 105.18 October 2014.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: tooslow1.png Size: 35 KB


USDCHF there was a down spike to 0.9257 August 2015.
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #247
  • May 1, 2016 12:34pm May 1, 2016 12:34pm
Hi FxJay@ Sorry if this is already answered, but could you please tell me what is BPR which you mentioned you will be checking along with COT reports during analysis?
  • #248
  • May 2, 2016 12:37am May 2, 2016 12:37am
Jay, this is very impressive thread & one among very few in FF where no nonsense is being posted. I hope & pray it remains so in future too. Keep up the good results.
Risk / Trade Management is the name of the Game
  • #249
  • May 2, 2016 12:42am May 2, 2016 12:42am
GBPNZD

I think this pair has bottomed @ 2.04000 handle & till it doesn't violate it by breaking below & closing below this level, I consider to buy the dips targeting higher prices.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GN.jpg Size: 61 KB
Risk / Trade Management is the name of the Game
  • #250
  • May 2, 2016 8:06am May 2, 2016 8:06am
Quoting kornrogers
Hello Jay, being following your thread and must admit your predictions are TOP notch. Don't you think that we could have a retrace in eur/usd maybe to 1.1350 before going higher? Anyway, good luck and keep sharing with us your great work.
Hey kornrogers,

As I mentioned here even 1.1220 is not out of the picture, so I wouldn't be surprised to see 1.1350. However, I have to repeat that I definitely won't bet on a retrace, for me a retrace is just a bonus to add more positions if it happens.

My long awaited 1.1511 target is finally reached, 1.1635 is next .. it's just a matter of time

Best,
Jay
  • #251
  • May 2, 2016 8:08am May 2, 2016 8:08am
Quoting TooSlow
{quote} {image} EURUSD there was an up spike to 1.1712 August 2015. {image} USDJPY there was a down spike to 105.18 October 2014. {image} USDCHF there was a down spike to 0.9257 August 2015.
Probability points in the direction of those points being revisited sooner rather than later, patience & good MM are the keys to make it big on these trades
  • #252
  • May 2, 2016 8:12am May 2, 2016 8:12am
Quoting tradeforlife
Hi FxJay@ Sorry if this is already answered, but could you please tell me what is BPR which you mentioned you will be checking along with COT reports during analysis?
Hey mate,

I've talked about this in the past, but i think it got buried with all the posts & threads that got unfortunately deleted.

BPR is the bank participation report that very little people know about or use. It's an official report that is released monthly by the CFTC

http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/Ba...otes/index.htm
  • #253
  • May 2, 2016 8:18am May 2, 2016 8:18am
Quoting FX-Jay
{quote} Hey mate, I've talked about this in the past, but i think it got buried with all the posts & threads that got unfortunately deleted. BPR is the bank participation report that very little people know about or use. It's an official report that is released monthly by the CFTC http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/Ba...otes/index.htm
Thank you for a kind and courteous response.
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #254
  • May 2, 2016 8:18am May 2, 2016 8:18am
Quoting FxSaint
Jay, this is very impressive thread & one among very few in FF where no nonsense is being posted. I hope & pray it remains so in future too. Keep up the good results.
Thank you, I'll make sure to keep it that way

Quoting FxSaint
GBPNZD I think this pair has bottomed @ 2.04000 handle & till it doesn't violate it by breaking below & closing below this level, I consider to buy the dips targeting higher prices. {image}
I don't have a position on GBPNZD at the moment since I don't have a high probability setup. In other words I am neutral.
But do keep in mind that from the 'bigger picture' perspective, this pair is still in a downtrend. So if you want to play the bottoming/reversal card, I do suggest having a set SL that is chosen carefully
  • #255
  • May 2, 2016 8:24am May 2, 2016 8:24am
Quoting FX-Jay
Updates & View going forward: * EURUSD: I still believe that a large bullish move is being prepared. I've been buying on every dip. A re-visit of 1.1220 is not out of the picture, but I wouldn't bet on it. If it does happen though, I will be glad to add even more longs. First target remains 1.1511, to be followed be a larger move to the upside (to be re-evaluated once 1.1511 is reached)
Quoting FX-Jay
{quote} * EURUSD: Just 60 more pips to go & we'll be at 1.1511 Next target is 1.1635
1.1511 is now gone! No surprise there.

1.1635 is next; and again once 1.1635 is reached we reevaluate and decide if we keep on going higher.

Cheers & congrats to all the longs that have been buying on dips
  • #256
  • May 2, 2016 8:32am May 2, 2016 8:32am
I know that most of you are more interested in the EURUSD calls since its the most popular pair, but keep in mind that the USDCHF is doing a great job too & is highly correlated to EU.

We're down 250 pips from the recent highs waiting patiently for 0.9495

Quoting FX-Jay
* USDCHF: Still holding shorts. The bearish trend ain't over yet. We will be seeing lows below 0.9495 quite soon.
Quoting FX-Jay
{quote} * USDCHF: Still holding shorts. This week's bearish move was just the beginning
  • #257
  • May 3, 2016 10:34am May 3, 2016 10:34am
EURUSD:

Quoting FX-Jay
Updates & View going forward: * EURUSD: I still believe that a large bullish move is being prepared. I've been buying on every dip. A re-visit of 1.1220 is not out of the picture, but I wouldn't bet on it. If it does happen though, I will be glad to add even more longs. First target remains 1.1511, to be followed be a larger move to the upside (to be re-evaluated once 1.1511 is reached)
USDCHF:

Quoting FX-Jay
* USDCHF: Still holding shorts. The bearish trend ain't over yet. We will be seeing lows below 0.9495 quite soon.
Quoting FX-Jay
I know that most of you are more interested in the EURUSD calls since its the most popular pair, but keep in mind that the USDCHF is doing a great job too & is highly correlated to EU. We're down 250 pips from the recent highs waiting patiently for 0.9495

USDJPY:

Quoting FX-Jay
* USDJPY: As I mentioned few days ago, USDJPY is heading south, and every move to the upside (all the way up to 112.80) is a selling opportunity. The bullish run on Friday was a 'gift' to whoever wanted a good entry point Initial target remains 107.50
AUDJPY:
Quoting FX-Jay
{quote} * AUDJPY: Down 600 pips from highs, another 200 won't be a problem

By all means, this have been a phenomenal year so far. I'm so close to my yearly trading target & we just started month 5!
Gotta admit that the market was extremely generous in granting second & third chances that usually rarely happen.
I don't expect this to continue, but I will sure take the most advantage out of it as it lasts
  • #258
  • May 3, 2016 10:58am May 3, 2016 10:58am
Quoting FX-Jay
{quote}My long awaited 1.1511 target is finally reached, 1.1635 is next .. it's just a matter of time
EURUSD reversed just 20 pips shy from the 1.1635 target, giving whoever missed a train a new chance to go long

Again any down move is an opportunity to buy! Careful with the Money Management though, this can dip all the way to 1.1220. Trade smart!
  • #259
  • May 3, 2016 12:08pm May 3, 2016 12:08pm
Thank you Jay for your posts! I hope I can comment here. Do you think EU has more room to go up? I am looking for buy 1.148 area and ride it for 300 pips to 1.18
  • #260
  • May 4, 2016 11:59pm May 4, 2016 11:59pm
Quoting FX-Jay
BPR is the bank participation report that very little people know about or use.
Hey Jay,

Just wondering if you can offer any nuggets about how best to interpret these Bank Participation Reports. They don't seem to make much sense at first glance. For instance, the banks have been net long the CME Euro every month since the last available report in April 2014 (albeit to various degrees). So that means they they were net long throughout the massive move down from 1.4 to 1.05. WTF? Why would they do that?

Similar story in gold too. The banks usually appear to be on the wrong side of the moves. Have a look at this chart:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gold_bank_participation_reports_to_Feb2015.png Size: 38 KB

Or maybe that's the point? Go opposite to the banks? I know some banks have been prosecuted for providing false information for these reports in the past.

Also, do you usually chart these reports and, if so, do you do it yourself or use a company? Can't find much about it online.

Thanks
You reap what you sow.
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