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  • #12,761
  • Apr 27, 2016 10:52pm Apr 27, 2016 10:52pm
Inserted Video
  • #12,762
  • Apr 27, 2016 11:05pm Apr 27, 2016 11:05pm
Quoting The Fool
BoJ rescues the bears for a day....I thot about putting on a FXY strangle ahead of this announcement, but passed....dragon down 350 in short order....../ES red 10+, we'll see if that holds for a while...
the central bankers can't run the markets forever
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,763
  • Apr 28, 2016 12:10am Apr 28, 2016 12:10am
Quoting The Fool
{quote}the central bankers can't run the markets forever
http://www.forbes.com/sites/jareddil.../#1544d6b43524
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,764
  • Apr 28, 2016 12:39am Apr 28, 2016 12:39am
mind the dates
http://www.bernama.com/bernama/v8/wn...php?id=1239836
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,765
  • Apr 28, 2016 11:40am Apr 28, 2016 11:40am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} woohoo, AAPL drops to low $96 - too bad I was cheap and pushed out a week on the puts calendar, cuz now it'll fml settle right on the sweet spot @ $95......
in AAPL DC for 21c, the May 6/May 13 $95 puts are worth 42c now - if AAPL would pull back to $95 by late next week I could net out 4x or more.....but bulls are looking pretty strong and I might be a fool to wait.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,766
  • Edited 12:23pm Apr 28, 2016 12:07pm | Edited 12:23pm
broke the last of June UVXY wide call flies today, a variety, but, for instance, turned Jun $36/45/54 fly into Jun $34+$36/45 call vert, for added 32c debit....have a heap of Jun call verts now, have not done the average, but it looks about like $32/$45.....so, in a perfect world, around $1200 maxP per contract, fool has >50....I really must be crazy
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,767
  • Apr 28, 2016 2:24pm Apr 28, 2016 2:24pm
Quoting The Fool
broke the last of June UVXY wide call flies today, a variety, but, for instance, turned Jun $36/45/54 fly into Jun $34+$36/45 call vert, for added 32c debit....have a heap of Jun call verts now, have not done the average, but it looks about like $32/$45.....so, in a perfect world, around $1200 maxP per contract, fool has >50....I really must be crazy
crazy until the ^vix pops, that is.....most of the long vol spreads I have are out in June and some in Sept, a few in May.....but it looks like I am about $2k richer for every 0.50 uptick in the ^vix.....if we can get another pop to 30 by Jun opex I will be so so happy
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,768
  • Apr 28, 2016 5:54pm Apr 28, 2016 5:54pm
PBR.....up >100% in the last 8 weeks....sitting at $7.70 & I have Jul $7 calls and sets of May/Jul and Jun/Jul $8 call calendars. PBR on a buy the rumor tear re: Rousseff impeachment, + riding the crude rally....on many a day in the last month or so PBR the only thing making me smile in my books.....I will hang on into May opex to see what I can get for the May calendars, let the straight $7 Jul calls ride. I have thought we would see $12 this year if oil rallies well........if that happens AND Dilma is impeached, maybe >$15. As usual, wisht I had got in more when the getting was good...

....PBR traded >$30 couple years back, b4 Dilma was elected and oil was >$75/bbl

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/timeli...213558917.html
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,769
  • Apr 28, 2016 9:22pm Apr 28, 2016 9:22pm
........any options traders in here.....?.......I filled (what else?) more long vol spreads today.....VXX Jun vert calls $19/20 for 12c and Jul vert calls $21/22 for 10c
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,770
  • Apr 29, 2016 2:36pm Apr 29, 2016 2:36pm
nice pop ^vix to end the month, but not enough for Apr29 VXX spreads I had set up in hopes of catching something post- Apr FOMC, lowest legs were VXX $19.5, will expire worthless, but they were cheap (<10c) to get in.....all long dated long vol trades swell my paper equity, just need to see it keep rolling into June.

If you were waiting for a ^vix bottom to get into some long vol trades for a May/Jun sell-off, we may have seen it (I think so ).....but tough to call that, we'll see what the coming week or so brings.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,771
  • Apr 29, 2016 9:11pm Apr 29, 2016 9:11pm
Quoting The Fool
........any options traders in here.....?.......I filled (what else?) more long vol spreads today.....VXX Jun vert calls $19/20 for 12c and Jul vert calls $21/22 for 10c
Lol. (Raises hand). Haven't been doing much besides hand sitting here. Watched VXX, thought it was going to give me a shot at adding a 10/15 short call diagonal, but no die. Had a pop today, but it wasn't enough to exit anything for the profits I want out of the setups. Otherwise, the short call diags I've got on now have both low stress and low entertainment value. I've got GTC orders on all of them to take profit at certain points. The rest is a waiting game for either a pop, a roll of the short calls for additional credit, or a sub-15 cave-in that allows me to add that 10/15 ... . Because of all the VIX product trades I've got on, figured I'd just pass on earnings; more of a headache than it's worth, particularly if you've got other things you can work, which is my preferred way of doing business.

For next week, I'll look at rotating back into some index ETF trades (maybe some QQQ, which has the highest IV), although VIX at 15.70 isn't exactly the bonanza we had for premium selling in Jan, Feb.

Otherwise, eyeing an FXE Super Bear. EURUSD is right at the point where I should be pulling the trigger ... . Just have to putz with a setup that'll make it worthwhile; credit spreads alone don't pay, but if they'll finance a decent debit spread ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,772
  • Apr 29, 2016 9:14pm Apr 29, 2016 9:14pm
Quoting The Fool
PBR.....up >100% in the last 8 weeks....sitting at $7.70 & I have Jul $7 calls and sets of May/Jul and Jun/Jul $8 call calendars. PBR on a buy the rumor tear re: Rousseff impeachment, + riding the crude rally....on many a day in the last month or so PBR the only thing making me smile in my books.....I will hang on into May opex to see what I can get for the May calendars, let the straight $7 Jul calls ride. I have thought we would see $12 this year if oil rallies well........if that happens AND Dilma is impeached, maybe >$15. As usual, wisht I had...
Kicking myself in the nads (it's difficult, given my long legs) for not dipping my toes in that well. Can't catch everything, I know, but I watched daily for a while ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,773
  • Apr 29, 2016 9:20pm Apr 29, 2016 9:20pm
Quoting The Fool
mind the dates http://www.bernama.com/bernama/v8/wn...php?id=1239836
In what remains of an EWZ iron condor ... . The short put side was pulled off for near worthless. The short call side is at 29.50, and price is dancing around there now ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,774
  • Apr 29, 2016 10:31pm Apr 29, 2016 10:31pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
although VIX at 15.70 isn't exactly the bonanza we had for premium selling in Jan, Feb..
idk, I think we may have seen the lower limit, but anyway I hope it gets down that way again as I have no loaded up my boodoggle train with as much long vol as she'll carry...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,775
  • Apr 29, 2016 10:58pm Apr 29, 2016 10:58pm
I am still shopping UVXY call verts, prolly avoid flys now.....I need the July options to come on....below a Sept $24/35/46 call fly at expiry, a 6 lot
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,776
  • Apr 29, 2016 11:09pm Apr 29, 2016 11:09pm
superbull longvol, Jun UVXY $13/10 bull puts'll get ya $1.15....maybe look at $12 short in the coming week....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,777
  • Apr 29, 2016 11:32pm Apr 29, 2016 11:32pm
Quoting The Fool
superbull longvol, Jun UVXY $13/10 bull puts'll get ya $1.15...
use the proceeds to fund cheap call verts....but not too cheap
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,778
  • Apr 30, 2016 12:49am Apr 30, 2016 12:49am
IF SOMEBODY GAVE YOU $4,000 to bet on a late June vol spike, what would be the best way to do it?
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #12,779
  • Apr 30, 2016 7:18pm Apr 30, 2016 7:18pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}use the proceeds to fund cheap call verts....but not too cheap {image}
I'm liking the super bulls ... . You get the "boom" from the credit spread and the "kapow" from the debit spread (ideally) ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #12,780
  • Apr 30, 2016 7:52pm Apr 30, 2016 7:52pm
Quoting The Fool
IF SOMEBODY GAVE YOU $4,000 to bet on a late June vol spike, what would be the best way to do it? {image}
I've putzed with so many long vol setups: naked puts, short put credit spreads, short call diagonals (poor man's covered calls), flies, long call debit spreads, each of which have their pluses and minuses. Some are cheap to put on, have huge ROC if they pan out, but have low prob of profit (flies, depending on where the "body" is in relation to current price). Some are expensive to put on, but the ROC metrics aren't fantastic, even though they may have a higher prob of profit and have tons of time to work out (short call diagonals). With the naked puts or short put credit spreads, well, there's a cap on your potential profit: it could shoot to 500, and all's you'd get out of the thing is the credit you were paid on the front end. The long call debit spreads are a crap shoot if your timing is off or you don't get the degree of move you need.

My low-risk tendencies would be to go for something along these lines:

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Risk 4 to make 7.8 with a break even at 14 ... . Mmm, lacks a certain "sex appeal."
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
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