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The Swamp

  • #4,481
  • Apr 29, 2016 3:22pm Apr 29, 2016 3:22pm
Waiting at 105.2x

May or may not get there

Quoting edyraper
watching to short gold around 1302 {quote} D1 {image}
Looks like 1307 - 1308
  • #4,482
  • Apr 29, 2016 3:36pm Apr 29, 2016 3:36pm
Quoting Ken A
Waiting at 105.2x May or may not get there {quote} Looks like 1307 - 1308
yep will try entries at 105.2x for a runner , and yes gold also a squeeze till 1307/8 would be nice .
also looking to long EJ AJ 119 77.6 ish
  • #4,483
  • Apr 29, 2016 3:46pm Apr 29, 2016 3:46pm
Quoting gatorinla
yen trend is strong.. but a close above 106.54.7 may be a crack... i closed so clawing my way to renter on a bounce,, chart {image}
changed.. this chart may be more accurate.. close then sun open.. china reporting sat.. fan may hit the shit over weekend..
Attached Image
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #4,484
  • Edited 4:44pm Apr 29, 2016 3:53pm | Edited 4:44pm
Good weekend everyone
  • #4,485
  • Apr 29, 2016 4:01pm Apr 29, 2016 4:01pm
later
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #4,486
  • Edited 5:04pm Apr 29, 2016 4:27pm | Edited 5:04pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} changed.. this chart may be more accurate.. close then sun open.. china reporting sat.. fan may hit the shit over weekend.. {image}
I see , but how ? I couldn't find anything below 75.5x ... ? I've checked 6 (8) different places , is it the low from bloomberg terminal or something ?
  • #4,487
  • Apr 30, 2016 1:10am Apr 30, 2016 1:10am
Quoting gatorinla
yen trend is strong.. but a close above 106.65 may be a crack... i closed so clawing my way to renter on a bounce,, chart {image}
I said if this time the japanese tactics wont work usd/jpy would be slapped. exactly same thing happened. I rarely trade the yen. so what yen does makes 0 difference to me. but just the ferocity of fall makes me wonder they have left it alone now. eu climbing on monday may cause yen to break 106 and may be 105
  • #4,488
  • Apr 30, 2016 2:44am Apr 30, 2016 2:44am
Quoting Ken A
Waiting at 105.2x May or may not get there {quote} Looks like 1307 - 1308
At around that price I think I will also enter a short position.
  • #4,489
  • Apr 30, 2016 3:51am Apr 30, 2016 3:51am
Quoting goosebone
Good weekend everyone
Weekend...
Inserted Video
  • #4,490
  • Apr 30, 2016 4:22am Apr 30, 2016 4:22am
I have been looking at the monthly chart EU, looks like a hammer the last monthly, GU also looks like a big hammer. Looking at the yearly chart, 1,164x could potentially be a turning point. Maybe 1,478x GU, looking at the monthly.

But reading Gator's posts, I am doubtful it will turn there already, will probably go much higher.

For me, this thread together with Sisse's thread are the most helpful and informative.
  • #4,491
  • Apr 30, 2016 11:14am Apr 30, 2016 11:14am
Morgan Stanley now sees YEN at 102 by next year. Complete opposite of Goldman Sachs of an earlier call of 135-140 by the end of this year. Sure hope Goldman Sachs hedged their bets. Next quarter earnings will he Goldman Sachs hard.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe...ticle29795829/
  • #4,492
  • Apr 30, 2016 2:00pm Apr 30, 2016 2:00pm
Quoting giveachance
{quote} I said if this time the japanese tactics wont work usd/jpy would be slapped. exactly same thing happened. I rarely trade the yen. so what yen does makes 0 difference to me. but just the ferocity of fall makes me wonder they have left it alone now. eu climbing on monday may cause yen to break 106 and may be 105
its dropped 1900 pips. i think your just a little late.. yen affects everything.. if equity's do take the plunge.. a lot of "i told you so" traders will climb out the cracks. the yen indicated this stretch over norm ever since it crossed 100.5 , over a year ago .. sure "if this happens this will happen" the question is why. after this has already happened will not make anyone a dime.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #4,493
  • Apr 30, 2016 2:26pm Apr 30, 2016 2:26pm
Quoting edyraper
{quote} I see , but how ? I couldn't find anything below 75.5x ... ? I've checked 6 (8) different places , is it the low from bloomberg terminal or something ?
yep, and it missed 60.xx. when the boj saw it headed that way. massive printing increased. so that low u have would have to fail to reach 60.. just like 1.17xx eu would have to fail to reach 1.2470 or norm at 1.22xx. i am not all in on yen 60.xx just like i am not all in on eu 1.2470. a test of 100.5o/.71 is getting on others map now. i get uncomfortable to see a band wagon forming. yen closed strong bull near uj lows. i dont like closes near lows/highs. they tend to bounce early after that close. the month just closed at low.. i was actually uj long, but closed before the day closed -10. i chickened out with china reporting pmi today.. if china has a bad report like i think it may. (remember i am on china crash bias) i will be kicking myself in the ass because yen could gap a shitload down.. if china wasn't reporting, i would of held my uj long.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #4,494
  • Apr 30, 2016 3:08pm Apr 30, 2016 3:08pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} yep, and it missed 60.xx. when the boj saw it headed that way. massive printing increased. so that low u have would have to fail to reach 60.. just like 1.17xx eu would have to fail to reach 1.2470 or norm at 1.22xx. i am not all in on yen 60.xx just like i am not all in on eu 1.2470. a test of 100.5o/.71 is getting on others map now. i get uncomfortable to see a band wagon forming. yen closed strong bull near uj lows. i dont like closes near lows/highs. they tend to bounce early after that close. the month just closed at low.. i was actually...
As in the currency itself gap down or xxx/JPY gap down?
  • #4,495
  • Apr 30, 2016 3:40pm Apr 30, 2016 3:40pm
Quoting Don96
{quote} As in the currency itself gap down or xxx/JPY gap down?
as in yen strong=uj down
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #4,496
  • Apr 30, 2016 3:42pm Apr 30, 2016 3:42pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} as in yen strong=uj down
​so Chinese good report means Yen UJ up, and same for other crosses? cheers
  • #4,497
  • Apr 30, 2016 4:18pm Apr 30, 2016 4:18pm
Quoting Don96
{quote} ​so Chinese good report means Yen UJ up, and same for other crosses? cheers
dono,, i assume china has bad news. i can't predict the future. think about what your asking. bad news dont mean bad news, it just less of expectation. it could be an improvement over previous months and be bad comparable to expectation. in a strong trend good or bad news (expectation) may keep a pair moving in the same direction. a strong trend is like the boj is easing and yen going against boj.. hint...
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #4,498
  • Apr 30, 2016 4:37pm Apr 30, 2016 4:37pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} dono,, i assume china has bad news. i can't predict the future. think about what your asking. bad news dont mean bad news, it just less of expectation. it could be an improvement over previous months and be bad comparable to expectation. in a strong trend good or bad news (expectation) may keep a pair moving in the same direction. a strong trend is like the boj is easing and yen going against boj.. hint...
my bad, I mean theoretically, better than expected usually good for currency... and vice versa. I know it isn't always the case
  • #4,499
  • Apr 30, 2016 7:34pm Apr 30, 2016 7:34pm
Quoting Don96
{quote} my bad, I mean theoretically, better than expected usually good for currency... and vice versa. I know it isn't always the case
yeah, we did have a pump b4. it was pumped like it often is b4 nfp or fomc. some may say easing was priced in, expecting further boj easing. i personally figured it was dropping either way to a minimum 106.33. had boj eased it may have reached 112.35 b4 dropping. i posted 111.75 was notorious for a slapdown... it benefitted me
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #4,500
  • Edited 8:40pm Apr 30, 2016 8:23pm | Edited 8:40pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} y..... if china has a bad report like i think it may. (remember i am on china crash bias) i will be kicking myself in the ass because yen could gap a shitload down.. if china wasn't reporting, i would of held my uj long.
thanks for the details and updates , appreciate it ...
and here the news :
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CNY2.png Size: 16 KB

well, good news is you are not holding Yen short ,
and bad news is you've closed your Yen long ...
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