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Attachments: C-12's Supply, Demand and PA thread
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C-12's Supply, Demand and PA thread

  • #3,501
  • Apr 29, 2016 2:25am Apr 29, 2016 2:25am
Quoting MCFly
{quote} On the attached screenshot is something KennyZ once wrote. It's a statement about his win:loss ratio. That means if I'm not competely wrong that in the period of time he earns for example 700 bucks he is loosing 300. Correct me if I'm wrong. The second ss shows what's possible even with this seemingly decent numbers. {image} {image}
Yes this was quite a few years ago. It's a good win rate but my guess is his rate is now a lot higher since he moved towards trend trading and less zone trading.

At one point he was scalping with 8 lots using single entries and quicker exits.. I can imagine this was a stressful way to trade but it worked. I would think he's making more these days with a much more relaxed style of trading.

Having said that I haven't spoke to him for over a year. Would be nice to catch up sometime.
  • #3,502
  • Apr 29, 2016 3:05am Apr 29, 2016 3:05am
Did some top pickings on GU after an overnight hold.
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  • #3,503
  • Apr 29, 2016 4:02am Apr 29, 2016 4:02am
A few more on the engulfs and demand taken out. Couple more for lower.
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  • #3,504
  • Apr 29, 2016 8:14am Apr 29, 2016 8:14am
Quoting C-12
{quote} Yes this was quite a few years ago. It's a good win rate but my guess is his rate is now a lot higher since he moved towards trend trading and less zone trading. At one point he was scalping with 8 lots using single entries and quicker exits.. I can imagine this was a stressful way to trade but it worked. I would think he's making more these days with a much more relaxed style of trading. Having said that I haven't spoke to him for over a year. Would be nice to catch up sometime.
Hi C-12,
I haven't heard or seen anything from him since he charged a fee for his forum. I didn't know that he was uncomfortable with his "no pips left behind" trading style

Really nice trades you made.
  • #3,505
  • Apr 29, 2016 11:01am Apr 29, 2016 11:01am
Wow what a day I missed. Just got home from work. Damn GU was on fire.

EU in the end.
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  • #3,506
  • Apr 29, 2016 11:03am Apr 29, 2016 11:03am
Jeesus, look at this for a scalpers paradise. Makes me wanna quit my job and become a fulltime scalper again when I see this...

Was hoping for lower when I left the house but this ended up an all out scalp fest.
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  • #3,507
  • Apr 29, 2016 12:10pm Apr 29, 2016 12:10pm
Here's why scalps would have been easy on GU.

Once H1 engulfed north then we had clear buys on pullbacks. Look at wick on upper supply. It looked like the high would get taken out.

I had no idea H1 would turn up at lower red arrow but would have made the rest of the session easy.
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  • #3,508
  • Apr 29, 2016 12:33pm Apr 29, 2016 12:33pm
Hey C-12.... i've got a few Qs pls.

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1)
Are you referring to this engulf (yellow arrow) that made a new high therefore opening the path higher and therefore take any entries on pullback?


2)
What about that wick says to you that it will likely be taken out - do you mean the bad structure?

thanks
  • #3,509
  • Apr 29, 2016 12:55pm Apr 29, 2016 12:55pm
Here's an attempt at annotating.

Question 2 -- H1 supply structure, price dropped and then wicked up. I don't think it even printed a zone? Although was showing on M15/M30.

The main thing today was today's fresh H1 demand. I've no idea why i turned there but as soon as it formed then buys on lower TF (M5 particularly) were screaming buys.

Also GU loves to spike tops and reverse. I guess this is more of a screen-time thing.
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  • #3,510
  • Apr 29, 2016 1:00pm Apr 29, 2016 1:00pm
Also took the short on the cheap ass 0.01 lot swing account so will see what happens.

Not confirmed PA yet but location is good for possibly a daily retrace.
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  • #3,511
  • Apr 29, 2016 1:48pm Apr 29, 2016 1:48pm
Quoting C-12
The main thing today was today's fresh H1 demand. I've no idea why i turned there but as soon as it formed then buys on lower TF (M5 particularly) were screaming buys. Also GU loves to spike tops and reverse. I guess this is more of a screen-time thing. {image}
yeh that makes sense thank you.
  • #3,512
  • Edited 3:02pm Apr 29, 2016 2:04pm | Edited 3:02pm
One bit of software that has just come out that is quite cool is Tradinginterceptor - traders gym mode. It is like forextester2 except free and java. Really good for replaying a day like today.

You have to select Traders Gym at the logon prompt:

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There is also an android version and iphone too i believe for getting your scalping fix on the go.
  • #3,513
  • Apr 29, 2016 3:43pm Apr 29, 2016 3:43pm
Quoting Dave987c
{quote} yeh that makes sense thank you.
Awesome, will get some practice in over the quiet bank holiday.

Here's something that might be useful for swing trading.. Liteforex.com offer none weighted currency indexes (similar to USDX) but for all the major currencies (AUD, EUR, CAD, NZD, GBP, JPY, CHF).

GBP is showing some general weakness and CHF general strength as an example. Not sure how reliable the zones are but the PA should provide some good info.
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  • #3,514
  • Apr 29, 2016 4:00pm Apr 29, 2016 4:00pm
Quoting MCFly
{quote} On the attached screenshot is something KennyZ once wrote. It's a statement about his win:loss ratio. That means if I'm not competely wrong that in the period of time he earns for example 700 bucks he is loosing 300. Correct me if I'm wrong. The second ss shows what's possible even with this seemingly decent numbers. {image} {image}
thanks!
It actually is hard to see, just by watching the screenshots, whether the trades are wins or losses. To me it all seems like people are posting only their win trades. I have no problem with that, each one does whatever he/she wants, but the truth is that for readers who are wondering if the method is any good, or fits their personality, etc... seeing veterans placing trades win both wins AND losses and keeping at it is far more reassuring and, I think, provides a real sense of what the business of trading is about... otherwise, one feels like he/she should get to a level of "perfection" (i.e. no loss whatsoever) before even trying to play live, which is unrealistic, i believe.
  • #3,515
  • Apr 29, 2016 5:33pm Apr 29, 2016 5:33pm
Quoting tradegest
{quote} thanks! It actually is hard to see, just by watching the screenshots, whether the trades are wins or losses. To me it all seems like people are posting only their win trades. I have no problem with that, each one does whatever he/she wants, but the truth is that for readers who are wondering if the method is any good, or fits their personality, etc... seeing veterans placing trades win both wins AND losses and keeping at it is far more reassuring and, I think, provides a real sense of what the business of trading is about... otherwise, one...
I don't want to give any false hopes to anyone that this is easy since it's all about the psychology in the end. There's no trading method that can stop people trading with too much risk, over trading, moving stops or taking poor quality or random entries. Hell, I can't even stop myself from doing most of these things.

Unfortunately this isn't a 33 SMA moving average crossover style rules system where traders have no knowledge of what the market does and blindly enter and exit in the middle of nowhere.

Supply and demand is more about being able to read what's happening on a price chart across multiple time frames then finding entries with a strong understanding of whats happening and why. It takes a hell of lot of hard work and screen-time and a lot of people don't have the stomach for it.

I can only share the good stuff and hope it makes sense to people who can go and find these setups. Just look through this thread, very often people are taking the exact same entries but getting wildly different outcomes.
  • #3,516
  • Apr 29, 2016 6:34pm Apr 29, 2016 6:34pm
C-12 I understand what you're saying, but sharing *only* the good stuff means that you are limiting everyone's learning. Who knows how many entries that ended in the red, that nobody knows about, that nobody discusses because they're "behind the scene" that could eventually reveal some pattern of "failure" and would help to bring about more learning for everyone. Just my 2 cents... Personally, it would be tremendously useful to me to know how many trades you took that were stopped out at a loss and what they'd look like in the overall scheme of the trades you placed as a whole. This would allow me to understand better my own progress and where I'd stand in trading S/D in regards to someone like you who's been doing this for quite some time and is starting to show excellent skills at pinpointing entries and letting profits run.
thanks!
  • #3,517
  • Apr 29, 2016 7:16pm Apr 29, 2016 7:16pm
Quoting tradegest
C-12 I understand what you're saying, but sharing *only* the good stuff means that you are limiting everyone's learning. Who knows how many entries that ended in the red, that nobody knows about, that nobody discusses because they're "behind the scene" that could eventually reveal some pattern of "failure" and would help to bring about more learning for everyone. Just my 2 cents... Personally, it would be tremendously useful to me to know how many trades you took that were stopped out at a loss and what they'd look like in the overall scheme of...
I've enjoyed following this thread for a few years (Thanks C-12) and yes, most of the trades shown are wins but I can't think of 1 thing I'd learn if traders posted a bunch of losing trades. C-12 has made it clear all along that he has losses. A trader might learn from his/her losses by trying to find out why it wasn't a good trade so he/she could avoid them but what do I get from seeing them? I try to see what he/she sees when they post a winning trade so I can try to have those same winning trades. Every trader is going to trade the same system differently & get different results unless it's a system with very precise entry/exit rules. S/D trading doesn't fit that type of trading so one trader might have a 30% winning percentage & make good profit & the next trader might have 60% winning percentage & barely break even so doesn't do me any good to know how many losses a trader has. Looking @ C-12's trades, he could have a pretty low win percentage & still make a good profit.
  • #3,518
  • Apr 30, 2016 3:08am Apr 30, 2016 3:08am
Quoting tradegest
C-12 I understand what you're saying, but sharing *only* the good stuff means that you are limiting everyone's learning. Who knows how many entries that ended in the red, that nobody knows about, that nobody discusses because they're "behind the scene" that could eventually reveal some pattern of "failure" and would help to bring about more learning for everyone. Just my 2 cents... Personally, it would be tremendously useful to me to know how many trades you took that were stopped out at a loss and what they'd look like in the overall scheme of...
I have posted plenty of losing trades on here. I prefer to post them when the setup looks good but ends up not working out.

Most of my failed trades look like this UCAD one attached and there's unfortunately too many of these for my own liking.

So what is there to analyse on this UCAD trade? I tried to scalp a bottom on M30/H1 against a strong trend with no sign of any decent demand or PA on higher time-frame. It was poor discipline and against my own trading rules (which I need to re-visit this weekend) and just insanity basically.

I don't think these offer anyone any value since there wasn't any good reason for entry and not what I'm recommending to anyone.

As SRT says, my R/R rate is high mostly so I can afford to take a lot of these small hits but my equity curve is pretty scruffy but made up for when I bank the good ones.
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  • #3,519
  • Apr 30, 2016 10:13am Apr 30, 2016 10:13am
Quoting C-12
{quote} ... It was poor discipline and against my own trading rules (which I need to re-visit this weekend) and just insanity basically. I don't think these offer anyone any value since there wasn't any good reason for entry and not what I'm recommending to anyone...{image}
I'm not talking about the type of entries that everyone takes once in while, those kind that we regret or ask ourselves "what the hell were we thinking" type of trades, no, not those, of course but on the other hand, there's always some entries that respect your entry rules and didn't come out in profit for the market didn't play out like expected. Those are the trades that I'd love to see on your charts, so that I can better understand your decision making process and perhaps not over-complicate my own..
  • #3,520
  • May 1, 2016 2:14am May 1, 2016 2:14am
Quoting tradegest
{quote} I'm not talking about the type of entries that everyone takes once in while, those kind that we regret or ask ourselves "what the hell were we thinking" type of trades, no, not those, of course but on the other hand, there's always some entries that respect your entry rules and didn't come out in profit for the market didn't play out like expected. Those are the trades that I'd love to see on your charts, so that I can better understand your decision making process and perhaps not over-complicate my own..
I have to endorse that comment.

good entry although turned to be a loss are still good entry that I'll take them the next time I see the next setup coming.
there is no need to hide those.
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